18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China
The 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (simplified Chinese: 中国共产党第十八次全国代表大会; traditional Chinese: 中國共產黨第十八次全國代表大會 pinyin: Zhōngguó Gòngchǎndǎng Dìshíbācì Quánguó Dàibiǎo Dàhuì, abbreviated ZhōngGòng Shíbā-dà [中共十八大]) will be the next major Communist Party Congress in China. Barring any possibility of institutional reform or systematic political change, it will be held in Beijing, China, at the Great Hall of the People sometime in the autumn of 2012. Due to term restrictions, current Paramount Leader Hu Jintao must step down as the party's General Secretary at this time, and the Congress will elect the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and will likely elect currently touted successors into power.
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[edit] Delegates
The 18th National Congress will have 2270 delegates selected from 40 constituencies. This represents an increase of 57 delegates and two constituencies from the 17th Congress. 31 of these constituencies represent China's province-level Provinces, Autonomous Regions, and Municipalities. Six other delegations represent: Taiwan, the People's Liberation Army, The Central Party Organization, The Central Government Ministries and Commissions, Central State Owned Enterprises, and Central Banks and Financial Institutions. The remaining three delegations are the subject of conflicting accounts. Hong Kong and Macau may represent two delegations or one delegation or they may be treated as part of the Guangdong delegation. Other delegations that have been identified by various sources include the Peoples Armed Police, units involved in “social management”, the public service sector, workers in private enterprises, and workers in foreign and joint enterprises. No more than 68% of the delegates may hold leadership positions within the party. The remaining 32% will be "grassroots" party members who hold jobs outside of the party apparatus. The number of female delegates will be required to increase. Each delegation will be selected (by the province level congresses) in an election in which there are at least 15% more candidates than there are delegates to be selected. The candidates in these elections are heavily vetted by multiple party organs. In addition to these 2270 delegates, an uncertain number of additional delegates, primarily retired veteran Communist leaders, will be selected. At the 17th National Congress there were 57 such delegates.[1][2]
[edit] Analysis
It is widely speculated that Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang will succeed Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao as top Politburo Standing Committee members by October/November 2012, and take over the Presidency and Premiership in March 2013 at the National People's Congress.[3] If previously implemented retirement policies are followed, no other current members of the PSC will continue to serve in that capacity. About 70% of the members of the Central Military Commission and the executive committee of the State Council will also turnover in 2012, resulting in the most significant leadership transition in decades.
According to Cheng Li of the Brookings Institution,[4] four individuals (in addition to Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang) have more or less secured their membership in the next PSC: Vice Premier Wang Qishan, Vice Premier Zhang Dejiang, Organization Department head Li Yuanchao, and Propaganda Department head Liu Yunshan. Other party members with a significant chance of being appointed to the next PSC include: Shanghai party chief Yu Zhengsheng, Guangdong party chief Wang Yang, Chongqing party chief Bo Xilai, Tianjin party chief Zhang Gaoli, Inner Mongolia party chief Hu Chunhua, State Councilor Liu Yandong, Minister of Public Security Meng Jianzhu and General Office chief Ling Jihua.
Chinese politics has trended towards "collective leadership" in recent years, where the paramount leader must share power with his circle of senior leaders, particularly the Premier. Thus the ultimate position of paramount leader will not have the same amount of power accorded to it during the era of Mao and Deng.[3]
[edit] References
- ^ http://media.hoover.org/sites/default/files/documents/CLM36CL.pdf
- ^ http://media.hoover.org/sites/default/files/documents/CLM36AM.pdf
- ^ a b "Xi Jinping's rise and political implications.". China: An International Journal 7(1). March 2009. http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/china/summary/v007/7.1.zheng.html., full text here
- ^ Li, Cheng (Winter 2012). "The Battle for China’s Top Nine Leadership Posts". The Washington Quarterly 35 (1): 131–145. doi:10.1080/0163660X.2012.642788. http://twq.com/12winter/index.cfm?id=460.
[edit] See also
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