Great Recession in South America

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The Great Recession in South America, as it mainly consists of commodity exporters, was not directly affected by the financial turmoil, even if the bond markets of Brazil, Argentina, Colombia and Venezuela have been hit.[1]

On the other hand, the continent experienced a tough agricultural crisis at the beginning of 2008.[2] Food prices have increased a lot, due to a lack of arable land. One of the main reasons for the loss of agricultural land was the high value offered by the production of biofuels. However, second generation biofuel processes is slowly being implemented in order to extend the amount of biofuel that can be produced sustainably by using biomass consisting of the residual non-food parts of current crops, such as stems, leaves and husks.[3] Other crops that are not used for food purposes (non food crops), such as switchgrass, grass, jatropha, whole crop maize, and miscanthus could be used to produce biofuels without starving the population that are dependent on food products.[3] Industry waste products (i.e., woodchips, skins and pulp) from fruit pressing would also replace the need to waste arable land for biofuels; possibly improving the South American economy.[3] Food prices, rising since 2002, ascended from 2006, reaching a peak during the first quarter of 2008. In one year the average price of food rose by about 50%.

Then South American countries were affected by both the global slowdown and the decrease in food prices due to the declining demand.[4] In June 2008, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) declared it expected a 4% growth for 2009. However at the end of the year it predicted that the year 2009 would put an end to six years of prosperity during which Latin America has benefited from high raw material prices.[5] Production in the region is likely to decline and unemployment to increase.[6][7] However, the Center for Economic and Policy Research has estimated that the region may be able to cope with the global downturn with the right macro-economic policies, as these countries no longer depend on the U.S. economy.[8]

Countries[edit]

Brazil[edit]

While previously thought immune to the global financial crisis, the economy of Brazil shrank 3.5% in the fourth quarter of 2008, with industrial production in January 2009, 17.2% below that of January 2008. Growth for 2008 as a whole was 5.1%. Capital spending fell 9.8% in the fourth quarter while household consumption fell 2% from the third quarter.[9] Another report, in The Wall Street Journal, showed drop in gross domestic product of 13.6% in the 4th quarter of 2008 on an annualized rate and a drop in industrial production for December, 2008 to a rate 18.6% lower than December 2007, with a loss of over 700,000 jobs between November 2008 and February 2009.[10]

Argentina[edit]

As the second-largest economy in South America and an important exporter of both machinery and agricultural goods, Argentina has been affected by the global slowdown. The country has been seeing slower economic growth recently, seeing its growth rate forecast reduced from nearly 7% in 2008 to 0% in 2009,[11] and due to the steep drop in commodities prices, plus a long, damaging drought in the farm provinces, local economists believe the country may fall into recession.[12] To combat the effects of the financial crisis, the government announced a $32 billion stimulus package that is intended to create some 380,000 jobs and favor small and medium-sized businesses, with investment in infrastructure, gas pipelines and electricity generators, as well as the completion by 2010 of a new nuclear power plant.[13] However, former President Néstor Kirchner, the husband of the current president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and leader of the ruling Justicialist Party, said in a speech on February 17, 2009, that due to the international crisis, Argentina in 2009 will face "the most difficult year in the last century."[14]

Ecuador[edit]

Ecuador is seeking ways to default on sovereign debts incurred under the government of Gustavo Noboa, which the present government deems to have been incurred illegally.[15] If Ecuador defaults, it will be the first developing country to default on sovereign debt since the crisis began.[16]

Caribbean Islands[edit]

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said as soon as February 2008 that a U.S. slowdown would hurt the economies of the Caribbean Islands, especially those in the Eastern Islands. Indeed, the tourism sector makes up a large part of the Islands' economies, so that they are heavily dependent on the number of U.S. visitors each year.[17] However, the lower inflation and currency depreciation in several Latin American and Caribbean nations can have offset this impact of the financial crisis, sustaining the activity.[18]

Timeline of the Great Recession across all continents[edit]

The table below display all national recessions appearing in 2006-2013 (for the 71 countries with available data), according to the European recession definition, saying that a recession occurred whenever seasonally adjusted real GDP contracts quarter on quarter, through minimum two consecutive quarters. Only 11 out of the 71 listed countries with quarterly GDP data (Poland, Slovakia, Moldova, India, China, South Korea, Indonesia, Australia, Uruguay, Colombia and Bolivia) escaped a recession in this time period.

The few recessions appearing early in 2006-07 are commonly never associated to be part of the Great Recession, which is illustrated by the fact that only two countries (Iceland and Jamaica) were in recession in Q4-2007.

One year before the maximum, in Q1-2008, only six countries were in recession (Iceland, Sweden, Finland, Ireland, Portugal and New Zealand). The number of countries in recession was 25 in Q2‑2008, 39 in Q3‑2008 and 53 in Q4‑2008. At the steepest part of the Great Recession in Q1‑2009, a total of 59 out of 71 countries were simultaneously in recession. The number of countries in recession was 37 in Q2‑2009, 13 in Q3‑2009 and 11 in Q4‑2009. One year after the maximum, in Q1‑2010, only seven countries were in recession (Greece, Croatia, Romania, Iceland, Jamaica, Venezuela and Belize).

The recession data for the overall G20-zone (representing 85% of all GWP), depict that the Great Recession existed as a global recession throughout Q3‑2008 until Q1‑2009.

Subsequent follow-up recessions in 2010‑2013 were confined to Belize, El Salvador, Paraguay, Jamaica, Japan, Taiwan, New Zealand and 24 out of 50 European countries (including Greece). As of October 2013, only seven out of the 71 countries with available quarterly data (Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Slovenia, Croatia, Belize and El Salvador), were still in ongoing recessions.[19][20] The many follow-up recessions hitting the European countries, are commonly referred to as being direct repercussions of the European sovereign‑debt crisis.

Country[a] Recession period(s) during 2006‑2013[19][20]
(measured by quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally adjusted real GDP,
as per the latest revised Q3-2013 data from 10 January 2014)
[b]
Albania 2007-Q1Q1-2007 until Q2-2007 (6 months)[21]
Q3-2009 until Q4-2009 (6 months)[21]
Q4-2011 until Q1-2012 (6 months)[21]
Argentina 2008-Q4Q4-2008 until Q2-2009 (9 months)
Australia No
Austria 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months)
Q3-2011 until Q4-2011 (6 months)
Belgium 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Q1-2009 (9 months)
Q2-2012 until Q1-2013 (12 months)
Belize 2006-Q1Q1-2006 until Q2-2006 (6 months)[22]
Q1-2007 until Q3-2007 (9 months)[22]
Q4-2008 until Q1-2009 (6 months)[22]
Q4-2009 until Q1-2010 (6 months)[22]
Q1-2011 until Q2-2011 (6 months)[22]
Q2-2013 until Ongoing (6 months)[22]
Bolivia No[23][c]
Brazil 2008-Q4Q4-2008 until Q1-2009 (6 months)
Bulgaria 2009-Q1Q1-2009 until Q2-2009 (6 months)
Canada 2008-Q4Q4-2008 until Q2-2009 (9 months)
Chile 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)
China No
Colombia No[24][25]
Costa Rica 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)[26]
Croatia 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Q2-2010 (24 months)
Q3-2011 until Q4-2012 (18 months)
Q2-2013 until Ongoing (6 months)
Cyprus 2009-Q1Q1-2009 until Q4-2009 (12 months)
Q3-2011 until Ongoing (27 months)
Czech Republic 2008-Q4Q4-2008 until Q2-2009 (9 months)
Q4-2011 until Q1-2013 (18 months)
Denmark 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Q2-2009 (12 months)
Q3-2011 until Q4-2011 (6 months)
Q4-2012 until Q1-2013 (6 months)
Ecuador 2006-Q4Q4-2006 until Q1-2007 (6 months)[27]
Q1-2009 until Q3-2009 (9 months)[28][29]
El Salvador 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Q2-2009 (12 months)[30][d]
Q2-2013 until Ongoing (6 months)[30][d]
Estonia 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Q3-2009 (15 months)
Q1-2013 until Q2-2013 (6 months)
EU (28 member states) 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months)
Q4-2011 until Q2-2012 (9 months)
Q4-2012 until Q1-2013 (6 months)
Eurozone (17 member states) 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months)
Q4-2011 until Q1-2013 (18 months)
Finland 2008-Q1Q1-2008 until Q2-2009 (18 months)
Q2-2012 until Q1-2013 (12 months)
France 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months)
Q4-2012 until Q1-2013 (6 months)
G20 (43 member states, PPP-weighted GDP)[e] 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Q1-2009 (9 months)
Germany 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)
Greece 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Ongoing (63 months)[33]
(not qoq-data, but quarters compared with same quarter of last year)[b]
Hong Kong 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)[34]
Hungary 2007-Q1Q1-2007 until Q2-2007 (6 months)
Q2-2008 until Q3-2009 (18 months)
Q2-2011 until Q3-2011 (6 months)
Q1-2012 until Q4-2012 (12 months)
Iceland 2007-Q4Q4-2007 until Q2-2008 (9 months)
Q4-2008 until Q1-2009 (6 months)
Q3-2009 until Q2-2010 (12 months)
India No
Indonesia No
Ireland 2007-Q2Q2-2007 until Q3-2007 (6 months)
Q1-2008 until Q4-2009 (24 months)
Israel 2008-Q4Q4-2008 until Q1-2009 (6 months)
Italy 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months)
Q3-2011 until Ongoing (27 months)
Jamaica 2007-Q3Q3-2007 until Q4-2007 (6 months)[35]
Q3-2008 until Q1-2009 (9 months)[35]
Q4-2009 until Q2-2010 (9 months)[35]
Q4-2011 until Q1-2012 (6 months)[35]
Q4-2012 until Q1-2013 (6 months)[35]
Japan 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)
Q4-2010 until Q2-2011 (9 months)
Q2-2012 until Q3-2012 (6 months)
Kazakhstan 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Q1-2009 (9 months)[36][f]
Latvia 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q3-2009 (18 months)
Lithuania 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Q2-2009 (12 months)
Luxembourg 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)
Macedonia 2009-Q1Q1-2009 until Q3-2009 (9 months)[37]
Q1-2012 until Q2-2012 (6 months)[37]
(not qoq-data, but quarters compared with same quarter of last year)[b]
Malaysia 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Q1-2009 (9 months)[38][39]
Malta 2008-Q4Q4-2008 until Q1-2009 (6 months)
Mexico 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Q2-2009 (12 months)
Moldova No[40][g]
Netherlands 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months)
Q2-2011 until Q1-2012 (12 months)
Q3-2012 until Q2-2013 (12 months)
New Zealand 2008-Q1Q1-2008 until Q2-2009 (18 months)
Q3-2010 until Q4-2010 (6 months)
Norway 2009-Q1Q1-2009 until Q2-2009 (6 months)
Q2-2010 until Q3-2010 (6 months)
Q1-2011 until Q2-2011 (6 months)
OECD (34 member states, PPP-weighted GDP) 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)
Paraguay 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Q1-2009 (9 months)[41]
Q2-2011 until Q3-2011 (6 months)[41]
Peru 2008-Q4Q4-2008 until Q2-2009 (9 months)[42]
Philippines 2008-Q4Q4-2008 until Q1-2009 (6 months)[43][44]
Poland No
Portugal 2007-Q2Q2-2007 until Q3-2007 (6 months)
Q1-2008 until Q1-2009 (15 months)
Q4-2010 until Q1-2013 (30 months)
Romania 2008-Q4Q4-2008 until Q2-2009 (9 months)
Q4-2009 until Q1-2010 (6 months)
Q4-2011 until Q1-2012 (6 months)
Russia 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Q2-2009 (12 months)
Serbia 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months)[45]
Q2-2011 until Q1-2012 (12 months)[45]
Q3-2012 until Q4-2012 (6 months)[45]
Singapore 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)[46][47][48][49][50]
Slovakia No
Slovenia 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Q2-2009 (12 months)
Q3-2011 until Ongoing (27 months)
South Africa 2008-Q4Q4-2008 until Q2-2009 (9 months)
South Korea No
Spain 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q4-2009 (21 months)
Q2-2011 until Q2-2013 (27 months)
Sweden 2008-Q1Q1-2008 until Q1-2009 (15 months)
Switzerland 2008-Q4Q4-2008 until Q2-2009 (9 months)
Taiwan 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)[51]
Q3-2011 until Q4-2011 (6 months)[51]
Thailand 2008-Q4Q4-2008 until Q1-2009 (6 months)[52]
Turkey 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)
Ukraine 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)[53]
Q3-2012 until Q4-2012 (6 months)[53][54][55]
United Kingdom 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q3-2009 (18 months)[56]
Q4-2011 until Q2-2012 (9 months)[56]
United States 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Q2-2009 (12 months)
Uruguay No[57]
Venezuela 2009-Q1Q1-2009 until Q1-2010 (15 months)[58]
  1. ^ 105 out of the 206 sovereign countries in the World, did not publish any quarterly GDP data for the 2006‑2013 period. The following 21 countries were also excluded from the table, due to only publishing unadjusted quarterly real GDP figures with no seasonal adjustment: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Brunei, Dominican Republic, Egypt, Georgia, Guatemala, Iran, Jordan, Macao, Montenegro, Morocco, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Palestine, Qatar, Rwanda, Sri Lanka, Trinidad and Tobago, Vietnam.
  2. ^ a b c Only seasonally adjusted qoq-data can be used to accurately determine recession periods. When quarterly change is calculated by comparing quarters with the same quarter of last year, this results only in an aggregated -often delayed- indication, because of being a product of all quarterly changes taking place since the same quarter last year. Currently there is no seasonal adjusted qoq-data available for Greece and Macedonia, which is why the table display the recession intervals for these two countries only based upon the alternative indicative data format.
  3. ^ Bolivia had as of January 2014 only published seasonally adjusted real GDP data until Q1-2010, with the statistics office still to publish data for 2010-13.[23]
  4. ^ a b According to the methodology note for the quarterly GDP of El Salvador, this data series include seasonally adjustments.[31]
  5. ^ The G20-zone represents 85% of all GWP, and comprise 19 member states (incl. UK, France, Germany and Italy) along with the EU Commission as the 20th member, who represents the remaining 24 EU member states in the forum.[32]
  6. ^ Kazakhstan had as of January 2014 only published seasonally adjusted real GDP data until Q4-2009, with the statistics office still to publish data for 2010-13.[36]
  7. ^ Moldova had as of January 2014 only published seasonally adjusted real GDP data until Q4-2010, with the statistics office still to publish data for 2011-13.[40]


See also[edit]

References[edit]

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