The 2014 close approach of 2007 VK184
|Discovered by||Catalina Sky Survey (703)|
|Discovery date||November 11, 2007|
|Minor planet category||Apollo|
|Semi-major axis||1.7264 AU|
|Orbital period||828.59 d (2.27 yr)|
|Average orbital speed||15.63 km/s|
|Longitude of ascending node||253.96°|
|Argument of perihelion||73.183°|
|Dimensions||~130 meters (430 ft)|
|Mass||3.3x109 kg (assumed)|
|Escape velocity||~0.065 meters (2.6 in) per second|
|Absolute magnitude (H)||22.0|
2007 VK184 is a near-Earth asteroid estimated to be about 130 meters (430 ft) in diameter. It is listed on the Sentry Risk Table with a Torino Scale rating of 1. A Torino scale rating of 1 is a routine discovery in which a pass near the Earth is predicted that poses no unusual level of danger. As of November 2013[update], 2007 VK184 is the only near-Earth object to be listed above 0 for potential impacts within 100 years. 2007 VK184 was discovered on November 12, 2007, by the Catalina Sky Survey.
The Sentry Risk Table, using an observation arc of 60 days, shows the asteroid has a 1 in 1820 chance (0.055%) of impacting Earth on June 3, 2048. The nominal close approach is 0.032 AU (4,800,000 km; 3,000,000 mi) on 2048-May-30.
The asteroid has a modest observation arc of 60 days, and the imprecise trajectory of this asteroid (Uncertainty=5) is complicated by close approaches to Earth, Venus and Mars. Around May 23, 2014, the asteroid will pass 0.16-0.19 AU from Earth and reach an apparent magnitude of ~20.9. This may allow astronomers to recover the asteroid and refine the odds of a future collision. Most asteroids rated 1 on the Torino Scale are later downgraded to 0 after more observations come in.
Risk assessments were calculated based on a diameter of 130 meters. It is estimated that, if it were ever to impact Earth, it would enter the atmosphere at a speed of 19.2 km/s and would have a kinetic energy equivalent to 150 megatons of TNT. Assuming the target surface is sedimentary rock, the asteroid would impact the ground with the equivalent of 40 megatons of TNT and create a 2.1 kilometers (1.3 mi) impact crater. Asteroids of approximately 130 meters in diameter are expected to impact Earth once every 11000 years or so.
- 99942 Apophis, a NEO that, for a few days, was thought to have a slight probability of striking the Earth in 2029. But the likelihood that would happen was quickly determined to be zero.
- "JPL Close-Approach Data: (2007 VK184)". 2008-01-11 last obs. Retrieved 2011-08-07.
- "MPEC 2007-V94 : 2007 VK184". IAU Minor Planet Center. 2007-11-13. Retrieved 2010-10-27.
- "JPL Small-Body Database Browser: 2007 VK184". Retrieved 2008-02-05.
- "2007 VK184 Earth Impact Risk Summary". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. Archived from the original on 31 October 2009. Retrieved 2009-10-04.
- "The Torino Impact Hazard Scale". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. 13 Apr 2005. Retrieved 2011-11-05.
- "Current Impact Risks". Near Earth Object Program. NASA. 2009-01-28. Archived from the original on 18 June 2009. Retrieved 2009-06-18.
- "WayBack Machine archive from 10 Jan 2008". Wayback Machine. 2008-01-10. Retrieved 2013-02-20.
- "2012 VK184 Ephemerides for 23 May 2014". NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site). Retrieved 2013-02-21.
- Robert Marcus, H. Jay Melosh, and Gareth Collins (2010). "Earth Impact Effects Program". Imperial College London / Purdue University. Retrieved 2013-02-20. (solution using 130 meters, 2600 kg/m3, 19.2 km/s, 45 degrees, Target: Sedimentary Rock)
- Orbital simulation from JPL (Java) / Ephemeris
- List Of The Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) (Minor Planet Center)