2007 VK184
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Discovery[1]
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| Discovered by | Catalina Sky Survey (703) |
| Discovery date | November 11, 2007 |
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Designations
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| Minor planet category |
Apollo |
| Epoch 2011-Aug-27 (JD 2455800.5) (Uncertainty=5)[2] |
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| Aphelion | 2.7100 AU |
| Perihelion | 0.74291 AU |
| Semi-major axis | 1.7264 AU |
| Eccentricity | 0.56969 |
| Orbital period | 828.59 d (2.27 yr) |
| Average orbital speed | 15.63 km/s |
| Mean anomaly | 264.05° |
| Inclination | 1.2218° |
| Longitude of ascending node | 253.96° |
| Argument of perihelion | 73.183° |
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Physical characteristics
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| Dimensions | ~130 meters[3] |
| Mass | 3.3x109 kg (assumed)[3] |
| Absolute magnitude (H) | 22.002[2] |
2007 VK184 is an asteroid which is listed on the Near-Earth Object Risk List with a rating on the Torino Scale of Level 1.[3] A Torino rating of 1 is a routine discovery in which a pass near the Earth is predicted that poses no unusual level of danger.[4] As of 24 June 2011[update], 2007 VK184 and 2011 AG5 are the only near-earth objects to be listed above Level 0 for potential impacts within 100 years.[5] 2007 VK184 was discovered on November 12, 2007, by the Catalina Sky Survey.[1]
Further observations between December 18, 2007, and January 4, 2008, suggested an increase in the impact probability to 1 in 2700 chance for an impact with Earth during June 2048. A few days later, the impact probability was reverted back to a 1 in 3030 chance.
According to the Near-Earth Object list, 101 observations over 60 days suggests the asteroid has a probability of 1 in 1820 chance of hitting the Earth on June 3, 2048 at a distance of about 0.75 Earth radii (4815km).[3] Those figures translate into a 0.055% chance of hitting (or 99.945% of missing). The nominal close approach is 0.032 AU (4,800,000 km; 3,000,000 mi) on 2048-May-30.[6] The asteroid is estimated to have a diameter of about 130 meters.[3] Ignoring the acceleration of the asteroid due to the Earth's gravity, the velocity of the asteroid relative to the Earth at the intersection of their orbits would be 19.19 km/s.
The asteroid has a modest observation arc of 60 days,[2] and the imprecise trajectory of this asteroid (Uncertainty=5)[2] is complicated by close approaches to Earth, Venus and Mars.[6] The Earth close-approach of May 2014 may allow astronomers to refine the orbit and odds of a future collision.[6] Most asteroids listing 1 on the Torino Scale are later downgraded to Level 0 after more detailed observations.
[edit] See also
- 99942 Apophis, a NEO that, for a time, was thought to have a slight probability of striking the Earth in 2029. The likelihood that this will happen has now been determined to be zero, warranting a downgrade from Level 4 on the Torino impact hazard scale. A second possible impact date was set for 2036, but the likelihood of that impact was lowered to 1-in-250,000, causing the risk to be downgraded to Level 0.
[edit] References
- ^ a b "MPEC 2007-V94 : 2007 VK184". IAU Minor Planet Center. 2007-11-13. http://www.minorplanetcenter.org/mpec/K07/K07V94.html. Retrieved 2010-10-27.
- ^ a b c d e "JPL Small-Body Database Browser: 2007 VK184". http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2007+VK184&orb=1. Retrieved 2008-02-05.
- ^ a b c d e "2007 VK184 Earth Impact Risk Summary". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2007vk184.html. Retrieved 2009-10-04.
- ^ "The Torino Impact Hazard Scale". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. 13 Apr 2005. http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/torino_scale1.html. Retrieved 2011-11-05.
- ^ "Current Impact Risks". Near Earth Object Program. NASA. 2009-01-28. http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/. Retrieved 2009-06-18.
- ^ a b c d "JPL Close-Approach Data: (2007 VK184)". 2008-01-11 last obs. http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2007VK184;cad=1#cad. Retrieved 2011-08-07.
[edit] External links
- NASA JPL Small-Body Database Browser on 2007 VK184
- Orbital simulation from JPL (Java) / Ephemeris
- List Of The Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) (Minor Planet Center)
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