2007 VK184
 The 2014 close approach of 2007 VK184[1] |
|
| Discovery[2] | |
|---|---|
| Discovered by | Catalina Sky Survey (703) |
| Discovery date | November 11, 2007 |
| Designations | |
| Minor planet category | Apollo |
| Orbital characteristics[3] | |
| Epoch 2011-Aug-27 (JD 2455800.5) (Uncertainty=5)[3] |
|
| Aphelion | 2.7100 AU |
| Perihelion | 0.74291 AU |
| Semi-major axis | 1.7264 AU |
| Eccentricity | 0.56969 |
| Orbital period | 828.59 d (2.27 yr) |
| Average orbital speed | 15.63 km/s |
| Mean anomaly | 264.05° |
| Inclination | 1.2218° |
| Longitude of ascending node | 253.96° |
| Argument of perihelion | 73.183° |
| Physical characteristics | |
| Dimensions | ~130 meters (430 ft)[4] |
| Mass | 3.3x109 kg (assumed)[4] |
| Escape velocity | ~0.065 meters (2.6 in) per second |
| Absolute magnitude (H) | 22.0[3] |
2007 VK184 is a near-Earth asteroid estimated to be about 130 meters (430 ft) in diameter.[4] It is listed on the Sentry Risk Table with a Torino Scale rating of 1.[4] A Torino scale rating of 1 is a routine discovery in which a pass near the Earth is predicted that poses no unusual level of danger.[5] As of December 2012[update], 2007 VK184 is the only near-Earth object to be listed above 0 for potential impacts within 100 years.[6] 2007 VK184 was discovered on November 12, 2007, by the Catalina Sky Survey.[2]
By January 4, 2008, with an observation arc of 52 days, there was a 1 in 2700 chance of an impact with Earth on June 3, 2048.[7]
The Sentry Risk Table, using an observation arc of 60 days, shows the asteroid has a 1 in 1820 chance (0.055%) of impacting Earth on June 3, 2048.[4] The nominal close approach is 0.032 AU (4,800,000 km; 3,000,000 mi) on 2048-May-30.[1]
Contents |
2014 passage [edit]
The asteroid has a modest observation arc of 60 days,[3] and the imprecise trajectory of this asteroid (Uncertainty=5)[3] is complicated by close approaches to Earth, Venus and Mars.[1] Around May 23, 2014, the asteroid will pass 0.16-0.19 AU from Earth[1] and reach an apparent magnitude of ~20.9.[8] This may allow astronomers to recover the asteroid and refine the odds of a future collision. Most asteroids rated 1 on the Torino Scale are later downgraded to 0 after more observations come in.
Risk assessments were calculated based on a diameter of 130 meters.[4] It is estimated that, if it were ever to impact Earth, it would enter the atmosphere at a speed of 19.2 km/s and would have a kinetic energy equivalent to 150 megatons of TNT.[4] Assuming the target surface is sedimentary rock, the asteroid would impact the ground with the equivalent of 40 megatons of TNT and create a 2.1 kilometers (1.3 mi) impact crater.[9] Asteroids of approximately 130 meters in diameter are expected to impact Earth once every 11000 years or so.[9]
See also [edit]
- 99942 Apophis, a NEO that, for a few days, was thought to have a slight probability of striking the Earth in 2029. But the likelihood that would happen was quickly determined to be zero.
References [edit]
- ^ a b c d "JPL Close-Approach Data: (2007 VK184)". 2008-01-11 last obs. Retrieved 2011-08-07.
- ^ a b "MPEC 2007-V94 : 2007 VK184". IAU Minor Planet Center. 2007-11-13. Retrieved 2010-10-27.
- ^ a b c d e "JPL Small-Body Database Browser: 2007 VK184". Retrieved 2008-02-05.
- ^ a b c d e f g "2007 VK184 Earth Impact Risk Summary". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. Archived from the original on 31 October 2009. Retrieved 2009-10-04.
- ^ "The Torino Impact Hazard Scale". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. 13 Apr 2005. Retrieved 2011-11-05.
- ^ "Current Impact Risks". Near Earth Object Program. NASA. 2009-01-28. Archived from the original on 18 June 2009. Retrieved 2009-06-18.
- ^ "WayBack Machine archive from 10 Jan 2008". Wayback Machine. 2008-01-10. Retrieved 2013-02-20.
- ^ "2012 VK184 Ephemerides for 23 May 2014". NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site). Retrieved 2013-02-21.
- ^ a b Robert Marcus, H. Jay Melosh, and Gareth Collins (2010). "Earth Impact Effects Program". Imperial College London / Purdue University. Retrieved 2013-02-20. (solution using 130 meters, 2600 kg/m3, 19.2 km/s, 45 degrees, Target: Sedimentary Rock)
External links [edit]
- Orbital simulation from JPL (Java) / Ephemeris
- List Of The Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) (Minor Planet Center)
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