2013–14 South Pacific cyclone season

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2013–14 South Pacific cyclone season
Season summary map
First system formed October 19, 2013
Last system dissipated March 20, 2014
Strongest storm Ian – 930 hPa (mbar), 205 km/h (125 mph) (10-minute sustained)
Total disturbances 20
Total depressions 13
Tropical cyclones 6
Severe tropical cyclones 2
Total fatalities 12 total
Total damage At least $4.3 million (2014 USD)
South Pacific tropical cyclone seasons
2011–12, 2012–13, 2013–14, 2014–15
Related articles

The 2013–14 South Pacific cyclone season was a near normal tropical cyclone season, with six tropical cyclones occurring within the basin between 160°E and 120°W. The season ran from November 1, 2013 to April 30, 2014, however, the first four tropical disturbances occurred during October 2013 and were included as a part of the season. During the season, tropical cyclones were officially monitored by the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS), Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) and New Zealand's MetService. The United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and other national meteorological services including Météo-France and NOAA also monitored the basin during the season. During the season there were 21 significant tropical disturbances were assigned a number and a F suffix by the FMS's Regional Specialized Meteorological Center in Nadi, Fiji (RSMC Nadi), including the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Hadi from the Australian region. The BoM, MetService and RSMC Nadi all estimated sustained wind speeds over a period of 10-minutes and used the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale, while the JTWC estimated sustained winds over a 1-minute period, which are subsequently compared to the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale (SSHS).

Seasonal forecasts[edit]

Source/Record Tropical
Cyclone
Severe
Tropical Cyclone
Ref
Record high: 1997–98: 16 1982–83:10 [1]
Record low: 2003–04: 3 2008–09: 0 [1]
Averages: 7.9 3.8 [2]
RSMC Nadi 4-8 2-4 [2]
NIWA 8-12 4 [3]
Actual 6 2
Region Chance of above
average activity
Average
number
Actual
activity
Southern Pacific 48% 15 8
Western South Pacific 56% 8 4
Eastern South Pacific 47% 11 4
Source:BOM's Seasonal Outlooks for Tropical Cyclones.[4]

Ahead of the cyclone season, RSMC Nadi, TCWC Wellington, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), the New Zealand National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and various other Pacific Meteorological services, all contributed towards the Island Climate Update tropical cyclone outlook that was released during October 2013.[3][5] The outlook took into account the ENSO neutral conditions that had been observed across the Pacific and analogue seasons that had ENSO neutral conditions occurring during the season.[3] The outlook called for a near average number of tropical cyclones for the 2013–14 season, with eight to twelve named tropical cyclones, to occur between 135°E and 120°W compared to an average of 10.[3] At least four of the tropical cyclones were expected to become category 3 severe tropical cyclones, while three could become category 4 severe tropical cyclones, they also noted that a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone was unlikely to occur.[3][5] In addition to contributing towards the Island Climate Update outlook, RSMC Nadi and the BoM issued their own seasonal forecasts for the South Pacific region.[2][4]

The BoM issued 3 seasonal forecasts for the South Pacific region between 142.5°E and 120°W, one for the Western Southern Pacific region between 142.5°E and 165°E and one for the Eastern Southern Pacific region between 165°E and 120°W.[4] They noted that the tropical Pacific Ocean was currently experiencing neutral ENSO conditions which meant that there was no strong shift expected in the average location of tropical cyclone formation.[4] They also noted that there was nothing in the broad climate drivers to suggest anything, but a typical tropical cyclone season for the South Pacific region.[4] As a result they predicted that the South Pacific region as a whole, would experience near average tropical cyclone activity during the coming season with a 48% chance of it being above average.[4] The Western region was predicted to have 56% chance of being above average while the Eastern region had a 47% chance of being above average.[4] Within their outlook RSMC Nadi predicted that between four and eight tropical cyclones, would occur within the basin compared to an average of around 7.4 cyclones.[2] At least two of the tropical cyclones were expected to become category 3 severe tropical cyclones, while 1-2 might intensify into a category 4 or 5 severe tropical cyclones.[2] They also reported that the tropical cyclone genesis trough was expected to be located near to and to the west of the International Dateline.[2] This was based on the expected and predicted ENSO conditions, and the existence of the Pacific warm pool of sub-surface temperature anomalies in this region.[2]

Risk forecasts[edit]

Both the Island Climate Update and RSMC Nadi's tropical cyclone outlooks assessed the risk of a tropical cyclone affecting a certain island or territory.[2][3] As the tropical cyclone genesis trough of low pressure was expected to be located near to and to the west of the International Dateline, normal or slightly above normal activity was expected for areas near the dateline.[2][3] It was also predicted that activity between Vanuatu and New Caledonia, as well as east of the International Date Line to be normal or below normal during the season.[3] The Island Climate Update Outlook predicted that Vanuatu and New Caledonia had a reduced chance of being affected by multiple tropical cyclones.[3] The Cook Islands, Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoan Islands, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Wallis and Futuna and French Polynesia's Austral and Society Islands were all predicted to have a normal chance of being affected by a tropical cyclone.[3] Niue and New Zealand were predicted to face an elevated risk while French Polynesia's Tuamotu Archipelago and Marquesas Islands, Kiribati and the Pitcairn Islands, had an unlikely chance of being affected by a tropical cyclone.[3] RSMC Nadi's outlook predicted that the Cook and Samoan Islands, Tokelau and Niue had a below average risk of being affected by a tropical cyclone.[2] The Solomon Islands, Wallis and Futuna, Vanuatu and Tonga were predicted to face an average risk of being affected by a tropical cyclone.[2] New Caledonia, Tuvalu and Fiji were predicted to face an above average chance of being affected by a tropical cyclone.[2] RSMC Nadi also predicted that there was an increased risk of severe tropical cyclones, affecting the region this year when compared to the previous season.[6] There was a very high risk of Wallis and Futuna, Tonga, Fiji and New Caledonia being affected by a severe tropical cyclone.[6] The Samoan Islands, Tokelau, Niue, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu had a high risk, while the Cook Islands had a low to moderate risk of being affected by a severe tropical cyclone.[6]

Seasonal summary[edit]

Cyclone Ian Tropical cyclone scales#Comparisons across basins

Ahead of the season formally starting on November 1, 2013, four tropical disturbances developed, within the Coral Sea during the middle of October.[7] After the final advisories on the four tropical disturbances had been issued, the basin remained quiet, until Tropical Disturbance 05F developed on December 9, to the northeast of Fiji.

Storms[edit]

Tropical Depression 02F[edit]

Tropical depression (Australian scale)
Duration October 19 – October 23
Peak intensity Winds unknown  1002 mbar (hPa)

On October 19, RSMC Nadi reported that Tropical Disturbance 02F had developed in an area of low shear, about 1,550 km (965 mi) to the northeast of Suva, Fiji.[8]

Tropical Depression 03F[edit]

Tropical depression (Australian scale)
Duration October 21 – October 22
Peak intensity Winds unknown  1005 mbar (hPa)

Late on October 21, RSMC Nadi reported that Tropical Depression 03F had developed within an area of low shear, about 265 km (165 mi) to the northeast of Honiara on the Solomon Island of Guadalcanal.[9] The system was last noted later that day, after convection surrounding the center had significantly reduced.[10][11]

Tropical Depression 04F[edit]

Tropical depression (Australian scale)
Clockwise vortex
Duration October 25 – October 27
Peak intensity Winds unknown  1007 mbar (hPa)

On October 25, RSMC Nadi reported that Tropical Depression 04F had developed under an upper level ridge of high pressure within an area of low windshear, about 330 km (205 mi) to the southeast of Honiara in the Solomon Islands.[12] Over the next couple of days the system affected the Solomon Islands, before RSMC Nadi issued its final advisory on the system during October 27, as the system was not expected to develop into a category one tropical cyclone on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale.[13][14]

Tropical Depression 05F[edit]

Tropical depression (Australian scale)
Duration December 9 – December 13
Peak intensity Winds unknown  999 mbar (hPa)

On December 9, RSMC Nadi reported that Tropical Disturbance 05F had developed to the east of an upper level trough, in an area of moderate to high vertical windshear about 500 km (310 mi) to the northeast of Nadi, Fiji.[15][16] During that day the system moved towards the southeast and passed over the Fijian island of Viti Levu.[16][17] After passing over Fiji the system continued to move towards the southeast, before RSMC Nadi reported during December 11, that the system had developed into a tropical depression.[18] During December 12, the system passed about 30 km (20 mi) to the south of Tongatapu Island, before RSMC Nadi issued its final advisory on the system during the next day, as the system was not expected to develop into a category one tropical cyclone on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale.[18][19]

Tropical Disturbance 06F[edit]

Tropical disturbance (Australian scale)
Duration December 23 – December 29
Peak intensity Winds unknown  1003 mbar (hPa)

On December 23, RSMC Nadi reported that Tropical Disturbance 06F had developed under an upper level ridge of high pressure, within an area of moderate vertical wind shear to the northeast of the Santa Cruz Islands.[20]

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ian[edit]

Category 5 severe tropical cyclone (Australian scale)
Category 4 tropical cyclone (SSHS)
Duration January 2 – January 14
Peak intensity 205 km/h (125 mph) (10-min)  930 mbar (hPa)
Main article: Cyclone Ian

During January 2, RSMC Nadi reported that Tropical Disturbance 07F had developed to the southeast of Futuna Island.[21] Over the next three days the system gradually developed further underneath an upper level ridge of high pressure, within an area of moderate vertical wind shear, as it slowly moved towards the southwest.[21][22][23] Late on January 5, the JTWC designated the system as Tropical Cyclone 07P, before RSMC Nadi named the system Ian, after it had become a category 1 tropical cyclone on the Australian scale.[24][25]

Tropical Cyclone June[edit]

Category 1 tropical cyclone (Australian scale)
Tropical storm (SSHS)
Duration January 13 – January 19
Peak intensity 75 km/h (45 mph) (10-min)  990 mbar (hPa)

On January 13, RSMC Nadi reported that Tropical Disturbance 08F had developed, along a surface trough of low pressure to the southeast of the Solomon Island Makira.[26] June caused at least one fatality in New Caledonia, possibly two.[27]

Tropical Depression 09F[edit]

Tropical depression (Australian scale)
Duration January 21 – January 24
Peak intensity Winds unknown  1004 mbar (hPa)

Late on January 21, RSMC Nadi reported that Tropical Disturbance 09F had developed about 220 miles (340 km) SW of Palmerston Island in the Cook Islands.[28] The system dissipated early on January 24, due to less convection and an area of cool waters.

Tropical Disturbance 10F[edit]

Tropical disturbance (Australian scale)
Duration January 22 – January 24
Peak intensity Winds unknown  1004 mbar (hPa)

On January 22, RSMC Nadi reported that Tropical Disturbance 10F had developed about 530 km (330 mi) to the southeast of the Duff Islands.[29] On January 24, the remnants of 10F crossed the basin and eventually became Tropical Cyclone Dylan on January 26.[30]

Tropical Cyclone Edna[edit]

Category 2 tropical cyclone (Australian scale)
Tropical storm (SSHS)
Duration February 4 (Entered basin) – February 6
Peak intensity 95 km/h (60 mph) (10-min)  985 mbar (hPa)

Early on February 4, the remnants of Cyclone Edna moved into the basin from the Australian region, with RSMC Nadi reporting that the system had redeveloped into a category one tropical cyclone and designating it as 12F. During that day the system's overall organization significantly improved as it was steered to the south-southeast by a mid-level ridge of high pressure located to the east of the system. Early the next day RSCM Nadi reported that the system had peaked as a category two tropical cyclone, with 10-minute wind speeds of 90 km/h (55 mph) as the system approached the French Territory of New Caledonia.

Tropical Depression 14F[edit]

Tropical depression (Australian scale)
Duration February 23 – February 26
Peak intensity Winds unknown  1002 mbar (hPa)

During February 23, RSMC Nadi reported that Tropical Disturbance 14F had developed, within a trough of low pressure to the north-northwest of Maewo, Vanuatu.[31][32] Over the next day the system moved slowly towards the south-southeast and developed into a tropical depression.[33] Over the next two days the system continued to move towards the south-southeast and prompted heavy rain warnings for Fiji, before it dissipated during February 26.[31][34]

Tropical Cyclone Kofi[edit]

Category 2 tropical cyclone (Australian scale)
Tropical storm (SSHS)
Duration February 24 – March 4
Peak intensity 100 km/h (65 mph) (10-min)  980 mbar (hPa)

On February 24, RSMC Nadi reported that Tropical Depression 15F had developed about 265 km (165 mi) west of Nadi, Fiji.[35] This was quite close to Tropical Depression 14F, and JTWC appear to have regarded them as the same system. There had also been severe flooding in Central and Eastern parts of Fiji Islands on February 27. During Kofi's duration, the system submerged many homes in the Fiji Islands.

Tropical Disturbance 16F/20F (Hadi)[edit]

Tropical disturbance (Australian scale)
Duration February 26 – March 18 (Exited basin)
Peak intensity Winds unknown  1000 mbar (hPa)

Late on February 26, RSMC Nadi reported that Tropical Disturbance 16F, had developed about 90 km (55 mi) south of the Indispensable Reefs.[36] Over the next day the system moved westwards and moved into the Australian region, where it eventually developed into Tropical Cyclone Hadi during March 9. The system subsequently moved back into the South Pacific basin late on March 12, where RSMC Nadi designated it as Tropical Disturbance 20F.[37] On March 18, the Tropical Disturbance re-exited the South Pacific basin into the Australian basin.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Lusi[edit]

Main article: Cyclone Lusi
Category 3 severe tropical cyclone (Australian scale)
Category 1 tropical cyclone (SSHS)
Duration March 7 – March 14
Peak intensity 150 km/h (90 mph) (10-min)  960 mbar (hPa)

Early on March 7, RSMC Nadi reported that Tropical Disturbance 18F had developed about 685 km (425 mi) to the west of Nadi, Fiji.[38][39] Over the next two days the system moved towards the north-northwest and slowly consolidated, as atmospheric convection wrapped into the systems low level circulation center, before RSMC Nadi reported during March 9, that the system had developed into a tropical depression.[40][41]

Tropical Cyclone Mike[edit]

Category 1 tropical cyclone (Australian scale)
Tropical storm (SSHS)
Duration March 12 – March 20
Peak intensity 65 km/h (40 mph) (10-min)  990 mbar (hPa)

On March 12, RSMC Nadi reported that Tropical Disturbance 19F had developed about 250 km (155 mi) ESE of Pago Pago.[42] 19F maintained its strength until early March 13, due to less convection and strong vertical windshear. Later that day, it moved southeast and intensified into Tropical Cyclone Mike late on March 14. Mike reached peak intensity on March 17, but didn't reached Category 2 strength. The system weakened as it entered cool waters while moving south on March 20. The remnants weakened to a subtropical depression, before degenerating further into a deep mid-latitude baroclinic low pressure system during early March 21, and finally dissipating on March 23.

Tropical Depression 21F[edit]

Tropical depression (Australian scale)
Duration March 17 – March 19
Peak intensity 45 km/h (30 mph) (10-min)  998 mbar (hPa)

On March 17, RSMC Nadi reported that Tropical Disturbance 21F had developed about 210 km (130 mi) NNW of Aitutaki in the Cook Islands. While intensifying slowly later that day, it reached peak intensity in the midnight hours of March 18. With not enough convection around the system's circulation, it failed to become the next tropical cyclone and rapidly dissipated on March 19.[43]

Other storms[edit]

During October 19, RSMC Nadi reported that the first tropical disturbance of the season had developed, within an area of low vertical wind shear to the southeast of the Solomon Islands.[8][44] During that day the system moved westwards as a small compact system, before it was subsequently last noted during the next day as it dissipated to the north of Vanuatu.[44][45][46]

On January 29, RSMC Nadi reported that Tropical Disturbance 11F had developed to the southwest of Nadi, Fiji.[47] The system lay to the east of an upper level trough of low pressure within an area of high vertical windshear.[48] During that day the system moved towards the east-southeast and was subsequently last noted by RSMC Nadi later that day as it moved into TCWC Wellingtons area of responsibility.[48] Tropical Disturbance 13F formed on February 16, NNW of Vanuatu. Due to unfavorable conditions of turning into a depression, 13F dissipated near a subtropical ridge early on February 19. On March 6, a small low-pressure area formed and was given the designation 17F. Because of the system's formation was near cool waters, it dissipated late on March 8.

Storm names[edit]

Within the Southern Pacific a tropical depression is judged to have reached tropical cyclone intensity should it reach winds of 65 km/h, (40 mph) and it is evident that gales are occurring at least halfway around the center. Tropical depressions that intensify into a tropical cyclone between the Equator and 25°S and between 160°E - 120°W are named by the RSMC Nadi. However, should a tropical depression intensify to the south of 25°S between 160°E and 120°W, it will be named in conjunction with RSMC Nadi by TCWC Wellington. Should a tropical cyclone move out of the basin and into the Australian region, it will retain its original name.[49]

  • Nute (unused)
  • Odile (unused)
  • Pam (unused)
  • Reuben (unused)
  • Solo (unused)

Season effects[edit]

This table lists all the storms that developed in the South Pacific to the east of longitude 160°E during the 2013–2014 season. It includes their intensity on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale, duration, name, landfalls, deaths, and damages. All data is taken from RSMC Nadi and/or TCWC Wellington, and all of the damage figures are in 2013 USD.

Name Dates active Peak classification Sustained
windspeeds
Pressure Areas affected Damage
(USD)
Deaths Refs
01F October 19 – 20 Tropical disturbance Not Specified 1004 hPa (29.65 inHg) Solomon Islands None None
02F October 19 – 23 Tropical depression Not Specified 1002 hPa (29.59 inHg) Vanuatu None None
03F October 21 – 22 Tropical depression Not Specified 1005 hPa (29.68 inHg) Solomon Islands None None
04F October 25 – 27 Tropical depression Not Specified 1007 hPa (29.74 inHg) Solomon Islands None None
05F December 9 – 13 Tropical depression Not Specified 999 hPa (29.50 inHg) Tonga, Fiji None None
06F December 23 – 29 Tropical disturbance Not Specified 1003 hPa (29.62 inHg) Vanuatu, Fiji None None
Ian January 2 – 14 Category 5 severe tropical cyclone 205 km/h (125 mph) 930 hPa (27.46 inHg) Fiji, Tonga >$4.3 million 1
June January 13 – 19 Category 1 tropical cyclone 75 km/h (45 mph) 990 hPa (29.23 inHg) Solomon Islands, New Caledonia, Norfolk Island, New Zealand Minor 1
09F January 21 – 24 Tropical depression Not Specified 1004 hPa (29.65 inHg) Niue, Tonga None None
10F January 22 – 24 Tropical disturbance Not Specified 1004 hPa (29.65 inHg) Solomon Islands None None
11F January 29 Tropical disturbance Not Specified 1000 hPa (29.53 inHg) Fiji None None
Edna February 4 – 6 Category 2 tropical cyclone 95 km/h (60 mph) 985 hPa (29.09 inHg) New Caledonia None None
13F February 16 – 19 Tropical disturbance Not Specified 1003 hPa (29.62 inHg) Vanuatu, Fiji None None
14F February 23 – 26 Tropical depression Not Specified 1002 hPa (29.59 inHg) Vanuatu, Fiji None None
Kofi February 24 – March 4 Category 2 tropical cyclone 100 km/h (65 mph) 980 hPa (28.94 inHg) Fiji, Tonga None None
16F/20F
(Hadi)
February 26 – 27
March 12 – 18
Tropical disturbance Not Specified 1000 hPa (29.56 inHg) Solomon Islands, Vanuatu Unknown Unknown
17F March 6 – 8 Tropical disturbance Not Specified 1005 hPa (29.68 inHg) Vanuatu, New Caledonia None None
Lusi March 7 – 14 Category 3 severe tropical cyclone 150 km/h (90 mph) 960 hPa (28.35 inHg) Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Fiji, New Zealand Unknown 10 [50]
Mike March 12 – 20 Category 1 tropical cyclone 65 km/h (40 mph) 990 hPa (29.23 inHg) American Samoa, Cook Islands None None
21F March 17 – 19 Tropical depression 45 km/h (30 mph) 998 hPa (29.47 inHg) Cook Islands None None
Season Aggregates
20 systems October 19 – March 20   205 km/h (125 mph) 930 hPa (27.46 inHg)   >$4.3 million 12


See also[edit]

References[edit]

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