2020 United States presidential election in New Hampshire

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Main article: 2020 United States presidential election
2020 United States presidential election in New Hampshire
← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout%
 
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Incumbent President

Donald Trump
Republican



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The 2020 United States presidential election in New Hampshire is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.[1] New Hampshire voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New Hampshire has 4 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

To vote by mail, registered New Hampshire voters must request a ballot by November 2, 2020.[3]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Princeton Electoral Consortium[4] Safe D September 27, 2020
The Cook Political Report[5] Lean D September 10, 2020
Inside Elections[6] Lean D September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[7] Likely D October 8, 2020
Politico[8] Lean D September 8, 2020
RCP[9] Lean D September 29, 2020
Niskanen[10] Likely D July 26, 2020
CNN[11] Lean D August 3, 2020
The Economist[12] Likely D September 2, 2020
CBS News[13] Lean D August 16, 2020
270towin[14] Lean D August 2, 2020
ABC News[15] Lean D July 31, 2020
NPR[16] Lean D August 3, 2020
NBC News[17] Lean D August 6, 2020
538[18] Lean D September 9, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
[a] 		Margin
270 to Win October 8–28, 2020 October 29, 2020 53.4% 42.4% 4.2% Biden +11.0
FiveThirtyEight until October 31, 2020 November 1, 2020 53.8% 42.9% 3.3% Biden +10.9
Average 53.6% 42.7% 3.7% Biden +10.9

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Other Undecided
American Research Group Oct 26–28, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 39% 58% 1% – 2%
University of New Hampshire Oct 24–28, 2020 864 (LV) ± 3.3% 45% 53% 1% 1% 1%
Saint Anselm College Oct 23–26, 2020 1,018 (LV) ± 3.1% 44% 52% 2% – 2%
YouGov/UMass Amherst Oct 16–26, 2020 757 (LV) ± 4.5% 43% 53% 2% 1%[c] 2%
University of New Hampshire Oct 9–12, 2020 899 (LV) ± 3.3% 43% 55% 0% 0%[d] 2%
Suffolk University/Boston Globe Oct 8–12, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 41% 51% 2% 3%[e] 5%
Saint Anselm College Oct 1–4, 2020 1,147 (LV) ± 2.9% 41% 53% - 4%[f] 2%
Emerson College Sep 30 – Oct 1, 2020 700 (LV) ± 3.6% 45%[g] 53% - 2%[h] –
SurveyMonkey/Tableau Sep 1–30, 2020 637 (LV) – 43% 55% - – 2%
American Research Group Sep 25–28, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 44% 53% 1% – 2%
University of New Hampshire Sep 24–28, 2020 972 (LV) ± 3.1% 44% 53% 1% 0%[i] 3%
Pulse Opinion Research/Center for American Greatness[A] Sep 23–25, 2020 850 (LV) ± 4% 42%[j] 56% - 1%[k] 1%
YouGov/UMass Lowell Sep 17–25, 2020 657 (LV) ± 4.6% 44%[l] 52% 1% 2%[m] 1%
44%[n] 53% - 0%[o] 1%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Sep 8–11, 2020 445 (LV) ± 5.5% 42% 45% 4% 2%[p] 7%[q]
SurveyMonkey/Tableau Aug 1–31, 2020 444 (LV) – 39% 60% - – 1%
Saint Anselm College Aug 15–17, 2020 1,042 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% Template:Party shading/Democrat|51% - 4%[r] 2%
SurveyMonkey/Tableau Jul 1–31, 2020 574 (LV) – 39% 60% - – 2%
University of New Hampshire Jul 16–28, 2020 1,893 (LV) ± 2.3% 40% 53% - 4%[s] 3%
SurveyMonkey/Tableau Jun 8–30, 2020 191 (LV) – 39% 61% - – 1%
University of New Hampshire Jun 18–22, 2020 936 (LV) – 39% 52% - 6%[t] 3%
Saint Anselm College Jun 13–16, 2020 1,072 (RV) ± 3% 42% 49% - 5% 3%
University of New Hampshire May 14–18, 2020 790 (LV) – 46% 44% - 5%[u] 5%
Saint Anselm College Apr 23–27, 2020 820 (RV) ± 3.4% 42% 50% - 2% 7%
University of New Hampshire Feb 19–25, 2020 569 (LV) ± 4.1% 46% 44% - 8%[v] 2%
AtlasIntel Feb 8–10, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3% 46% 44% - 11% –
McLaughlin & Associates/NH Journal[1] Feb 4–5, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 49%[w] 45% - –[x] –[y]
Marist College/NBC News Jan 20–23, 2020 2,223 (RV) ± 2.6% 43% 51% - 2% 5%
Emerson College Nov 23–26, 2019 637 (RV) ± 3.8% 48% 52% - – –
547 (RV) ± 4.1% 42% 46% - – 13%
Saint Anselm College Nov 13–18, 2019 512 (RV) ± 4.3% 43% 51% - – 6%
Emerson College Sep 6–9, 2019 1,041 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 55% - – –
Gravis Marketing Aug 2–6, 2019 505 (RV) ± 4.4% 40% 53% - – 7%
Emerson College Feb 21–22, 2019 910 (RV) ± 3.2% 45% 55% - – –
American Research Group Mar 21–27, 2018 1,365 (RV) ± 3.0% 39% 53% - – 8%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Bernie
Sanders (D) 		Other Undecided
University of New Hampshire Feb 19–25, 2020 571 (LV) ± 4.1% 46% 46% 6% 1%
AtlasIntel Feb 8–10, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3% 47% 44% 9% –
McLaughlin & Associates/NH Journal[2] Feb 4–5, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 48%[z] 45% –[aa] –[ab]
Marist College/NBC News Jan 20–23, 2020 2,223 (RV) ± 2.6% 43% 51% 2% 4%
Emerson College Nov 23–26, 2019 637 (RV) ± 3.8% 48% 52% – –
547 (RV) ± 4.1% 42% 49% – 9%
Saint Anselm College Nov 13–18, 2019 512 (RV) ± 4.3% 46% 49% – 6%
Emerson College Sep 6–9, 2019 1,041 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 53% – –
Gravis Marketing Aug 2–6, 2019 505 (RV) ± 4.4% 41% 51% – 8%
Emerson College Feb 21–22, 2019 910 (RV) ± 3.2% 45% 55% – –
Praecones Analytica Jan 16–21, 2019 593 (RV) ± 5.3% 41% 54% – 5%
American Research Group Mar 21–27, 2018 1,365 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 45% – 5%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		Other Undecided
AtlasIntel Feb 8-10, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3% 46.8% 40.5% – 12.7%
Marist College/NBC News Jan 20–23, 2020 2,223 (RV) ± 2.6% 44% 48% 2% 5%
Inside Sources Jan 16–21, 2020 593 (RV) – 41% 54% – 5%
Emerson College Nov 23–26, 2019 637 (RV) ± 3.8% 51% 49% – –
Emerson College Nov 23–26, 2019 547 (RV) ± 4.1% 43% 47% – 10%
Saint Anselm College Nov 13–18, 2019 512 (RV) ± 4.3% 46% 47% – 7%
Emerson College Sep 6–9, 2019 1,041 (RV) ± 3.0% 51% 49% – –
Gravis Marketing Aug 2–6, 2019 505 (RV) ± 4.4% 44% 49% – 7%
Emerson College Feb 21–22, 2019 910 (RV) ± 3.2% 48% 52% – –
Praecones Analytica Jan 16–21, 2019 593 (RV) ± 5.3% 41% 54% – 5%
American Research Group Mar 21–27, 2018 1,365 (RV) ± 3.0% 50% 42% – 9%

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Michael
Bloomberg (D) 		Other Undecided
University of New Hampshire Feb 19–25, 2020 561 (LV) ± 4.1% 47% 33% 16% 5%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Pete
Buttegieg (D) 		Other Undecided
University of New Hampshire Feb 19–25, 2020 569 (LV) ± 4.1% 42% 48% 7% 3%
AtlasIntel Feb 8–10, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3% 45.3% 46.1% – 8.6%
Marist College/NBC News Jan 20–23, 2020 2,223 (RV) ± 2.6% 41% 51% 1% 6%
Emerson College Nov 23–26, 2019 637 (RV) ± 3.8% 41% 48% – –
Emerson College Nov 23–26, 2019 547 (RV) ± 4.1% 41% 48% – 11%
Saint Anselm College Nov 13–18, 2019 512 (RV) ± 4.3% 42% 49% – 9%
Gravis Marketing Aug 2–6, 2019 505 (RV) ± 4.4% 42% 49% – 9%

Donald Trump vs. Andrew Yang

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Andrew
Yang (D) 		Undecided
Emerson College November 23–26, 2019 637 (RV) ± 3.8% 51% 49% –
Emerson College November 23–26, 2019 547 (RV) ± 4.1% 42% 46% 12%
Emerson College September 6–9, 2019 1,041 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 54% –

Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Cory
Booker (D) 		Undecided
Emerson College Feb 21–22, 2019 910 ± 3.2% 49% 51% –

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Kamala
Harris (D) 		Undecided
Emerson College September 6–9, 2019 1,041 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 51% –
Gravis Marketing August 2–6, 2019 505 (RV) ± 4.4% 44% 47% 9%
Emerson College Feb 21–22, 2019 910 (RV) ± 3.2% 48% 52% –

Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Beto
O'Rourke (D) 		Undecided
Praecones Analytica Jan 16–21, 2019 593 (RV) ± 5.3% 41% 48% 12%
Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Howard Schultz

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Bernie
Sanders (D) 		Howard
Schultz (I) 		Undecided
Emerson College Feb 21–22, 2019 910 (RV) ± 3.2% 42% 48% 10% –

with Donald Trump, Elizabeth Warren, and Howard Schultz

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		Howard
Schultz (I) 		Undecided
Emerson College Feb 21–22, 2019 910 (RV) ± 3.2% 45% 44% 12% –

with John Kasich and Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		John
Kasich (R) 		Joe
Biden (D) 		Undecided
American Research Group Mar 21–27, 2018 1,365 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 46% 8%

with John Kasich and Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		John
Kasich (R) 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		Undecided
American Research Group Mar 21–27, 2018 1,365 (RV) ± 3.0% 52% 37% 11%

with Donald Trump and generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Generic
Democrat 		Other Undecided
RKM Research and Communications Inc./Boston Herald/FPU/NBC10[3] Jan 29-Feb 1, 2020 892 (V) – 36% 49% 9%[ac] 7%
Praecones Analytica Aug 13–15, 2018 626 (RV) ± 5.4% 38% 49% – 13%

with Donald Trump, generic Democrat, and generic third party

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Generic
Democrat 		Generic
third party 		Undecided
Suffolk University Apr 25–28, 2019 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 43% 6% 11%

with Donald Trump and Generic Opponent

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Generic
Opponent 		Other Undecided
University of New Hampshire/CNN Jan 15–23, 2020 1,169 (A) ± 2.9% 46% 49%[ad] 2%[ae] 2%

Results

2020 United States presidential election in New Hampshire[19]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
Write-in
Total votes

Primary elections

The New Hampshire primary, traditionally the first, was held on February 11, 2020, roughly a week after the Iowa caucuses.[20]

Republican primary

This section is transcluded from 2020 New Hampshire Republican primary. (edit | history)

The New Hampshire Republican primary took place on February 11, 2020. Incumbent president Donald Trump won the Republican primary with 85.6 percent of the vote, clinching all of the state's 22 pledged delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[21] Typically, the top candidates of the other major party receive a large number of write-in votes.

county
County won by these popular vote results:
  Trump—85–90%
  Trump—80–85%
congressional district
Congressional district won by these popular vote results:
  Trump—80–85%
2020 New Hampshire Republican primary[22][23]
Candidate Votes % Estimated
delegates
Donald Trump (incumbent) 129,734 84.42 22
Bill Weld 13,844 9.01 0
Joe Walsh (withdrawn) 838 0.55 0
Mitt Romney (write-in) 632 0.41 0
Rocky De La Fuente 148 0.10 0
Robert Ardini 77 0.05 0
Bob Ely 68 0.04 0
Zoltan Istvan 56 0.04 0
Others / Write-in 2,339 1.52 0
Pete Buttigieg (write-in Democratic) 1,136 0.74 0
Amy Klobuchar (write-in Democratic) 1,076 0.70 0
Mike Bloomberg (write-in Democratic) 801 0.52 0
Bernie Sanders (write-in Democratic) 753 0.49 0
Tulsi Gabbard (write-in Democratic) 369 0.24 0
Joe Biden (write-in Democratic) 330 0.21 0
Tom Steyer (write-in Democratic) 191 0.12 0
Andrew Yang (write-in Democratic) 162 0.11 0
Elizabeth Warren (write-in Democratic) 157 0.10 0
Other write-in Democrats 963 0.63 0
Total 153,674 100% 22

Democratic primary

Main article: 2020 New Hampshire Democratic primary

Bernie Sanders won the Democratic primary with 25.6 percent of the vote, ahead of second-place Pete Buttigieg, who received 24.3 percent of the vote. Both Sanders and Buttigieg received nine delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention. Amy Klobuchar finished in third place with 19.7 percent of the vote and earned six delegates. Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden finished in fourth and fifth place, respectively, and each received zero delegates.[24]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary § NHresults.[edit]
county
Popular vote share by county
  Sanders—<30%
  Sanders—30–40%
  Buttigieg—<30%
congressional district
Popular vote share by congressional district
  Sanders—25–30%
2020 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary[25][26]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[27][28]
Bernie Sanders 76,384 25.60 9
Pete Buttigieg 72,454 24.28 9
Amy Klobuchar 58,714 19.68 6
Elizabeth Warren 27,429 9.19
Joe Biden 24,944 8.36
Tom Steyer 10,732 3.60
Tulsi Gabbard 9,755 3.27
Andrew Yang 8,312 2.79
Michael Bloomberg (write-in)[26][29] 4,675 1.57
Deval Patrick 1,271 0.43
Michael Bennet 952 0.32
Cory Booker (withdrawn) 157 0.05
Joe Sestak (withdrawn) 152 0.05
Kamala Harris (withdrawn) 129 0.04
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 99 0.03
Julian Castro (withdrawn) 83 0.03
John Delaney (withdrawn) 83 0.03
Steve Bullock (withdrawn) 64 0.02
Henry Hewes 43 0.01
Ben Gleib (withdrawn) 31 0.01
Other candidates / Write-in [af]665 0.22
Donald Trump (write-in Republican)[26] 1,217 0.41
Bill Weld (write-in Republican)[26] 17 0.01
Mitt Romney (write-in Republican)[26] 10 0.00
Other write-in Republicans 5 0.00
Total 298,377 100% 24


See also

Notes

  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ "Another candidate" with 1%
  4. ^ "Another candidate" with 0%
  5. ^ "Refused" with 2%; "Other" with 1%
  6. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  7. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  8. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  9. ^ "Another candidate" with 0%
  10. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  11. ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%
  12. ^ Standard VI response
  13. ^ Hawkins (G) with 2%; "Another candidate" with 0%
  14. ^ With only Biden, Trump and "Another candidate" as options
  15. ^ "Another candidate" with 0%
  16. ^ "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%
  17. ^ Includes "Refused"
  18. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  19. ^ "Another candidate" with 4%
  20. ^ "Another candidate" with 6%
  21. ^ "Another candidate" with 5%
  22. ^ "Another candidate" with 8%
  23. ^ Data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  24. ^ Data not yet released
  25. ^ Data not yet released
  26. ^ Data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  27. ^ Data not yet released
  28. ^ Data not yet released
  29. ^ "Someone else" with 9%
  30. ^ Would vote for a candidate other than Trump
  31. ^ Would not vote with 2%
  32. ^ Including 157 write-in votes
Partisan clients
  1. ^ The Center for American Greatness is pro-Trump

References

  1. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  2. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ Lily Hay Newman (August 27, 2020), "How to Vote by Mail and Make Sure It Counts", Wired.com, archived from the original on October 6, 2020
  4. ^ "2020 Electoral Maps from Princeton Election Consortium". Princeton University. Retrieved 2020-09-22.
  5. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
  6. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
  7. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
  8. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  9. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  10. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
  11. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved 2020-06-16.
  12. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved 7 July 2020.
  13. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  14. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  15. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  16. ^ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved 2020-08-03.
  17. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved 2020-08-06.
  18. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 14 August 2020.
  19. ^ "2020 Election Information". Secretary of State. Retrieved 2020-09-17.
  20. ^ Alex Seitz-Wald (December 9, 2018). "2020 Democratic primary: California and Texas look to become the new Iowa and New Hampshire". NBC News. Retrieved December 10, 2018.
  21. ^ Steve Peoples; Kathleen Ronayne; Hunter Woodall (February 11, 2020). "President Trump wins GOP primary with more votes than any incumbent president in history". Associated Press. KRCR.
  22. ^ "2020 Presidential Primary - Republican Write-Ins - NHSOS". sos.nh.gov. Retrieved 2020-02-17.
  23. ^ "Content - NHSOS". sos.nh.gov. Retrieved 2020-02-17.
  24. ^ "Results: New Hampshire 2020 Presidential Primary - Democratic President". New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved February 13, 2020.
  25. ^ "2020 Presidential Primary - Democratic". New Hampshire Secretary of State. March 23, 2020. Retrieved March 29, 2022.
  26. ^ a b c d e "2020 Presidential Primary - Democratic Write-Ins". New Hampshire Secretary of State. March 23, 2020. Retrieved March 29, 2022.
  27. ^ "Live Results: New Hampshire Primary". The New York Times. February 11, 2020. Archived from the original on February 14, 2020. Retrieved February 12, 2020.
  28. ^ "New Hampshire Democratic Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. March 31, 2019. Archived from the original on April 12, 2019. Retrieved April 12, 2019.
  29. ^ Marc Fortier (February 13, 2020). "Bloomberg Beat 2 Well-Known Democrats in the NH Primary. He Wasn't Even on the Ballot". NBC Boston (WBTS-CD). Retrieved February 13, 2020.

Further reading

External links

Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_New_Hampshire&oldid=986657748"