2023 Castilian-Manchegan regional election
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All 33 seats in the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha 17 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2023 Castilian-Manchegan regional election will be held on Sunday, 28 May 2023, to elect the 11th Cortes of the autonomous community of Castilla–La Mancha. All 33 seats in the Cortes will be up for election. The election will be held simultaneously with regional elections in at least seven other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.
Overview
Electoral system
The Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha are the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Castilla–La Mancha, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Castilian-Manchegan Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1]
Voting for the Cortes is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Castilla–La Mancha and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Castilian-Manchegan people abroad are required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[2] The 33 members of the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Albacete, Ciudad Real, Cuenca, Guadalajara and Toledo, with each being allocated an initial minimum of three seats and the remaining 18 being distributed in proportion to their populations.[1][3]
The use of the D'Hondt method may result in a higher effective threshold, depending on the district magnitude.[4]
Election date
The term of the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha expires four years after the date of their previous election. Elections to the Cortes are fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 26 May 2019, setting the election date for the Cortes on Sunday, 28 May 2023.[1][3][5]
The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process, no nationwide election is due and some time requirements are met: namely, that dissolution does not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year has elapsed since a previous dissolution. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances will not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remains of their four-year terms. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the candidate from the party with the highest number of seats is to be deemed automatically elected.[1]
Parliamentary composition
The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Cortes at the present time.[6]
| Groups | Parties | Legislators | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seats | Total | ||||
| Socialist Parliamentary Group | PSOE | 19 | 19 | ||
| People's Parliamentary Group | PP | 10 | 10 | ||
| Citizens's Parliamentary Group | Cs | 4 | 4 | ||
Parties and candidates
The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[3][5]
Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:
| Candidacy | Parties and alliances |
Leading candidate | Ideology | Previous result | Gov. | Ref. | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes (%) | Seats | ||||||||
| PSOE | List |
.jpg)
|
Emiliano García-Page | Social democracy | 44.10% | 19 | 
|
[8] | |
| PP | List
|
.jpg)
|
Francisco Núñez | Conservatism Christian democracy |
28.53% | 10 | 
|
[9] | |
| Cs | List |
.jpg)
|
Carmen Picazo | Liberalism | 11.38% | 4 |
|
||
| Vox | List
|
|
Daniel Arias Vegas | Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism |
7.02% | 0 |
|
||
| Podemos– IU–AV |
List
|
|
TBD | Left-wing populism Direct democracy Democratic socialism |
6.92% | 0 |
|
||
Opinion polls
The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
Voting intention estimates
The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 17 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | 
|
|
|
|
|
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 1][p 2] | 18–24 Nov 2022 | 1,100 | ? | 39.9 16/17 |
34.2 14/15 |
3.5 0 |
10.4 3/4 |
6.4 0 |
– | 5.7 |
| PP[p 3] | 5 Oct 2022 | ? | 66.9 | 39.2 15/16 |
38.9 15/16 |
1.5 0 |
10.8 2 |
4.7 0 |
– | 0.3 |
| Idus3/PSOE[p 4] | 16–20 May 2022 | 800 | ? | 44.9 18/19 |
31.9 11/12 |
3.2 0 |
9.5 3/4 |
5.0 0 |
– | 13.0 |
| NC Report/PP[p 5][p 6] | 2–18 May 2022 | 2,400 | 66.3 | 39.5 16 |
37.0 14 |
3.2 0 |
11.1 3 |
6.2 0 |
– | 2.5 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 7] | 28 Feb–13 Apr 2022 | 324 | ? | 38.6 15 |
35.3 14 |
2.9 0 |
13.1 4 |
6.8 0 |
1.7 0 |
3.3 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 8] | 1 Dec–14 Jan 2022 | 191 | ? | 39.7 15 |
35.7 14 |
2.8 0 |
12.5 4 |
6.6 0 |
1.2 0 |
4.0 |
| Idus3/PSOE[p 9] | 3–17 Dec 2021 | 4,723 | ? | 45.5 18/19 |
30.9 11/13 |
3.6 0 |
12.5 2/4 |
5.5 0 |
– | 14.6 |
| GAD3/PSOE[p 10][p 11] | 20 Nov–3 Dec 2021 | 1,202 | ? | 42.9 17/19 |
30.7 11/12 |
4.3 0 |
13.0 3/4 |
6.9 0 |
– | 12.2 |
| Idus3/PSOE[p 12] | 4–15 Oct 2021 | 2,500 | ? | 42.5 18/20 |
30.2 12/13 |
5.1 0 |
13.2 1/2 |
5.9 0 |
– | 12.3 |
| NC Report/La Tribuna[p 13] | 14 Oct 2021 | 1,450 | 64.6 | 38.9 15 |
38.1 15 |
3.4 0 |
11.9 3 |
5.3 0 |
– | 0.8 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 14] | 13 Jul–21 Aug 2021 | 223 | ? | 39.8 16 |
36.7 15 |
– | 11.0 2 |
6.2 0 |
– | 3.1 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 15] | 30 May 2021 | ? | ? | 38.6 15 |
38.3 15 |
3.4 0 |
12.0 3 |
5.1 0 |
– | 0.3 |
| Idus3/PSOE[p 16] | 24–28 May 2021 | 1,200 | ? | ? 17/18 |
? 12/13 |
? 0 |
? 2/4 |
? 0 |
– | ? |
| PSOE[p 17] | 19 Dec 2020 | ? | ? | 42.0 18 |
33.0 12/13 |
7.1 0/1 |
10.0 3/4 |
5.0 0 |
– | 9.0 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 18] | 15 Jul 2020 | 850 | ? | 38.6 16 |
33.5 14 |
7.7 0 |
10.2 2 |
8.1 1 |
– | 5.1 |
| PSOE[p 19][p 20] | 29 Jun–10 Jul 2020 | 2,500 | ? | 42.3 18 |
31.5 11/12 |
7.6 1/2 |
? 1/2 |
6.4 0 |
– | 10.8 |
| SyM Consulting[p 21][p 22] | 20–22 May 2020 | 3,209 | 68.3 | 37.5 13/16 |
29.6 9/13 |
5.9 0 |
16.5 6 |
8.4 1/3 |
– | 7.9 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 23] | 17–21 May 2020 | 1,858 | ? | 40.3 16 |
33.7 14 |
6.5 0 |
11.2 3 |
6.4 0 |
– | 6.6 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 24][p 25] | 1 Apr–15 May 2020 | ? | ? | 40.4 18 |
36.2 14 |
5.8 0 |
7.9 1 |
8.0 0 |
– | 4.2 |
| Numeral 8/La Tribuna[p 26] | 20–24 Jan 2020 | 1,050 | ? | 43.4 18 |
29.9 11 |
9.1 3 |
8.6 1 |
7.6 0 |
– | 13.5 |
| PSOE[p 27][p 28] | 3 Dec 2019 | ? | ? | ? 18/20 |
? 8/9 |
? 2/3 |
? 3/4 |
? 0 |
– | ? |
| November 2019 general election | 10 Nov 2019 | — | 70.6 | 33.1 (13) |
26.9 (10) |
6.8 (0) |
21.9 (9) |
9.2 (1) |
– | 6.2 |
| 2019 regional election | 26 May 2019 | — | 69.4 | 44.1 19 |
28.5 10 |
11.4 4 |
7.0 0 |
6.9 0 |
– | 15.6 |
Voting preferences
The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Idus3/PSOE[p 29] | 16–20 May 2022 | 800 | 32.0 | 17.9 | 0.9 | 7.9 | 2.8 | 20.4 | 7.3 | 14.1 |
| Idus3/PSOE[p 9] | 3–17 Dec 2021 | 4,723 | 31.5 | 18.3 | 1.1 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 20.7 | 9.1 | 13.2 |
| November 2019 general election | 10 Nov 2019 | — | 23.3 | 18.9 | 4.8 | 15.4 | 6.5 | — | 28.6 | 4.4 |
| 2019 regional election | 26 May 2019 | — | 30.9 | 20.0 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 4.8 | — | 29.2 | 10.9 |
Victory likelihood
The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
|
|
|
|
|
Other/ None |
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAD3/PSOE[p 10] | 20 Nov–3 Dec 2021 | 1,202 | 56.5 | 17.9 | 0.5 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 28.1 | 38.6 | |
Preferred President
The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Junta of Communities of Castilla–La Mancha.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
|
|
|
|
|
Other/ None/ Not care |
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Page PSOE |
Núñez PP |
Picazo Cs |
Cañizares Vox |
Gascón UP | ||||||
| Idus3/PSOE[p 30] | 16–20 May 2022 | 800 | 47.5 | 12.4 | – | – | – | 22.9 | 17.2 | 35.1 |
| Idus3/PSOE[p 9][p 31] | 3–17 Dec 2021 | 4,723 | 58.0 | 18.0 | – | – | – | 24.0 | 40.0 | |
| GAD3/PSOE[p 10] | 20 Nov–3 Dec 2021 | 1,202 | 38.0 | 11.2 | 1.8 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 41.2 | 26.8 | |
References
- Opinion poll sources
- ^ "Page al borde de perder Castilla-La Mancha tras comenzar la derogación de la sedición". El Mundo (in Spanish). 27 November 2022.
- ^ "CASTILLA-LA MANCHA. Encuesta SigmaDos 28/11/2022: PODEMOS-IU 6,4%, PSOE 39,9% (16/17), Cs 3,5%, PP 34,2% (14/15), VOX 10,4% (2)". Electográfica (in Spanish). 28 November 2022.
- ^ "El PSOE pierde Castilla-La Mancha: la encuesta que explica el giro fiscal de Page". Voz Pópuli (in Spanish). 5 October 2022.
- ^ "García-Page revalidaría su mayoría absoluta en Castilla-La Mancha pese a la irrupción de Vox". El Digital de Castilla-La Mancha (in Spanish). 31 May 2022.
- ^ "Una encuesta del PP otorga 14 diputados a Paco Núñez en C-LM y le abre la opción de formar Gobierno con 3 escaños de Vox". Europa Press (in Spanish). 2 June 2022.
- ^ "CASTILLA-LA MANCHA. Encuesta NC Report 02/06/2022: PODEMOS-IU 6,2%, PSOE 39,5% (16), Cs 3,2%, PP 37,0% (14), VOX 11,1% (3)". Electograph (in Spanish). 2 June 2022.
- ^ "ElectoPanel Castilla-La Mancha (15A): Page perdería el gobierno autonómico, Vox sube y el PP les necesitaría". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 April 2022.
- ^ "EP Castilla-La Mancha (15E): Page se mantiene en cabeza, pero la subida de Vox le arrebataría el Gobierno". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 January 2022.
- ^ a b c "García-Page volvería a gobernar Castilla-La Mancha con mayoría absoluta pese al ascenso de Vox". El Digital Castilla-La Mancha (in Spanish). 16 January 2022.
- ^ a b c "Una encuesta de GAD3 concede una nueva mayoría absoluta a García-Page con el PP en ascenso". El Digital Castilla-La Mancha (in Spanish). 26 January 2022.
- ^ "Estimación de elecciones en Castilla-La Mancha". GAD3 (in Spanish). 26 January 2022.
- ^ "Page aguanta el desgaste de la pandemia y hoy revalidaría su mayoría absoluta en Castilla-La Mancha". infoCLM (in Spanish). 28 October 2021.
- ^ "El PP gobernaría con Vox, y Cs se quedaría fuera de Cortes". La Tribuna de Ciudad Real (in Spanish). 14 October 2021.
- ^ "Una encuesta augura que el PP gobernaría hoy en Castilla-La Mancha con el apoyo de VOX". El Digital de Castilla-La Mancha (in Spanish). 1 September 2021.
- ^ "Castilla-La Mancha: PP y Vox gobernarían ante el castigo al PSOE". La Razón (in Spanish). 30 May 2021.
- ^ "Page aguanta el desgaste de la pandemia y hoy revalidaría su mayoría absoluta en Castilla-La Mancha". El Digital Castilla-La Mancha (in Spanish). 30 May 2021.
- ^ "El PSOE también extrapola a la región la última encuesta, y esto es lo que sale". El Digital Castilla-La Mancha (in Spanish). 22 December 2020.
- ^ "EP Autonómico (15Jul): En C-LM, Page baja y necesitaría a UP para seguir gobernando. Sube Vox". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 July 2020.
- ^ "El PSOE mantendría la mayoría absoluta en CLM". La Tribuna de Ciudad Real (in Spanish). 28 July 2020.
- ^ "García-Page mantendría la mayoría absoluta según una encuesta interna del PSOE". Voces de Cuenca (in Spanish). 28 July 2020.
- ^ "Estimación Mayo 2020. Castilla-La Mancha. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 30 May 2020.
- ^ "CASTILLA-LA MANCHA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 30/05/2020: UNIDAS PODEMOS 8,4% (1/3), PSOE 37,5% (13/16), Cs 5,9%, PP 29,6% (9/13), VOX 16,5% (6)". Electograph (in Spanish). 30 May 2020.
- ^ "El aviso de Page se cumple: el pacto con Bildu resta al PSOE". La Razón (in Spanish). 31 May 2020.
- ^ "EP (17My): Castilla-La Mancha – Page retiene la absoluta. Ciudadanos, fuera del Parlamento". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
- ^ "MacroPanel Autonómico (17My): 8 gobiernos para PSOE+, 8 para PP+ y 3 para otros+". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
- ^ "Page resiste en la región y mantiene la mayoría absoluta". La Tribuna de Toledo (in Spanish). 3 February 2020.
- ^ "Encuesta del PSOE CLM: Page sube y la bajada de PP y Cs metería a Vox en las Cortes". El Digital Castilla-La Mancha (in Spanish). 3 December 2019.
- ^ "Page repetiría y la extrema derecha entraría por primera vez en las Cortes si las elecciones se celebraran hoy". Periódico CLM (in Spanish). 3 December 2019.
- ^ "Una encuesta del PSOE le otorga una nueva mayoría absoluta en Castilla-La Mancha". elDiario.es (in Spanish). 31 May 2022.
- ^ "Una encuesta encargada por el PSOE dice que Page es el preferido como presidente por el 47,49%". ABC (in Spanish). 31 May 2022.
- ^ "Una encuesta interna del PSOE da la mayoría absoluta a García Page en Castilla-La Mancha". El Periódico de España (in Spanish). 3 January 2022.
- Other
- ^ a b c d Ley Orgánica 9/1982, de 10 de agosto, de Estatuto de Autonomía de Castilla-La Mancha. Boletín Oficial del Estado (Organic Law 9) (in Spanish). 10 August 1982. Retrieved 15 September 2017.
- ^ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
- ^ a b c Ley 5/1986, de 23 de diciembre, electoral de Castilla-La Mancha. Boletín Oficial del Estado (Law 5) (in Spanish). 23 December 1986. Retrieved 15 September 2017.
- ^ Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
- ^ a b Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General. Boletín Oficial del Estado (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 30 January 2020.
- ^ "Elecciones a las Cortes de Castilla - La Mancha (1983 - 2019)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 15 August 2019.
- ^ "Composition. 10th Legislature". www.cortesclm.es (in Spanish). Cortes de Castilla-La Mancha. Retrieved 23 July 2020.
- ^ "Emiliano García-Page, reelegido secretario general del PSCM-PSOE con el 99,7 por ciento de los votos". La Voz de Talavera (in Spanish). 31 October 2021. Retrieved 12 November 2021.
- ^ Ruiz, Javier (12 November 2021). "El PP de Castilla-La Mancha encara la carrera para desbancar a Page". El Confidencial (in Spanish). Toledo. Retrieved 12 November 2021.
