Alberta general election, 2012

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Alberta general election, 2012
Alberta
2008 ←
members		 Before June 1, 2012 (2012-06-01)
 → 29th
87 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Alberta
44 seats are needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  Alison Redford profile headshot.jpg Raj Sherman cropped.jpg Danielle Smith in 2011 cropped.jpg
Leader Alison Redford Raj Sherman Danielle Smith
Party Progressive Conservative Liberal Wildrose
Leader since October 2, 2011 September 10, 2011 October 17, 2009
Leader's seat Calgary-Elbow Edmonton-Meadowlark running in Highwood
Last election 72 seats, 52.7% 9 seats, 26.4% 0 seats, 6.8%
Current seats 67 8 4
  Brian Mason.jpg Glenntaylor-crop.jpg
Leader Brian Mason Glenn Taylor
Party NDP Alberta Party
Leader since September 2004 May 28, 2011
Leader's seat Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood running in West Yellowhead
Last election 2 seats, 8.5% 0 seats, 0.0%
Current seats 2 1
Incumbent Premier

Alison Redford
Progressive Conservative

The 2012 Alberta general election, formally the 28th general election of Alberta, Canada, will take place when the Premier formally advises the Lieutenant Governor to dissolve the Legislative Assembly. The Premier has already announced that a Senate nominee election will be called for the same day.[1]

While running for the leadership of the Progressive Conservative Association, eventual winner Alison Redford stated that if she became Premier she intended to pass legislation setting a fixed election date. After taking office, her government introduced a bill relating to the timing of elections, which was passed on December 6, 2011.[2] Unlike other fixed election date legislation in Canada, the 2011 Election Amendment Act fixes the election to a three month period, between March 1 and May 31 in the fourth calendar year. However, like other legislation, this does not affect the powers of the Lieutenant Governor to dissolve the Legislature before this period.[3]

Contents

[edit] Background

[edit] 27th Legislature

Main article: 27th Alberta Legislative Assembly

The 27th Alberta Legislature saw a series of unpopular and controversial pieces of legislation that led to a significant decline in the polls for the governing Progressive Conservative Association (PC) and the popularity of numbers of Premier Ed Stelmach.

The Wildrose Party has been the primary beneficiary of voter migration in opinion polls from the governing party, after former leader Paul Hinman won a by-election, and the party elected Danielle Smith as leader. On January 4, 2010, the Wildrose caucus became the third party, displacing the New Democrats, when PC MLAs Rob Anderson (Airdrie-Chestermere) and Heather Forsyth (Calgary-Fish Creek) joined the Wildrose. Later in 2010, former PC cabinet minister Guy Boutilier (Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo) joined the Wildrose, becoming its fourth MLA. However, their support has waned in the past year, as have polling fortunes for the Liberal Party. Alberta's NDP has doubled their results in recent polls compared to their percentage in the last election.

The Liberals have lost two MLAs since the previous election — Dave Taylor (Calgary Currie) to sit as an independent, before becoming the first MLA for the Alberta Party; and Bridget Pastoor (Lethbridge-East) who crossed the floor to join the PC caucus, in November, 2011. However, the Liberals gained one in selecting Raj Sherman (Edmonton-Meadowlark) as their leader in September 2011, who had been ejected from the PC caucus in November 2010.

On January 25, 2011, Ed Stelmach abruptly announced that he would not seek re-election, and would resign as leader of the Progressive Conservatives and as premier after a successor was chosen. Alison Redford was chosen as Stelmach's successor on October 1, 2011, and her election has improved the fortunes of her party in opinion polls. Her new government presented six pieces of legislation, the most notable of which regarded fixed election dates, an investigation into health care, and tougher penalties for impaired driving. All six bills were passed in the fall 2011 sitting of the 27th Legislature.[4] The 2012 election is a result of the fixed election legislation, which fixes the date of the next provincial election in Alberta between March 1 and May 31, 2012, and requires subsequent elections in that period every four years thereafter. Though the law does not affect the ability of Alberta's Lieutenant-Governor to dissolve the assembly and call an election before that time, it is not likely that this will occur in a majority government.

[edit] Green Party dispute

Main article: Alberta Greens

A year after the previous general election the Alberta Greens became mired in an internal dispute that resulted in the collapse of the party, and its de-registration by Elections Alberta. Some of the former Green party executive, including former deputy leader Edwin Erickson, eventually joined the Alberta Party, while others regrouped and founded the Evergreen Party of Alberta.[5]

[edit] Election summary

e • d Summary of the 2012 Legislative Assembly of Alberta election results
Party Party leader Number of
candidates		 Seats Popular vote
2008 Current 2012 % Change # % % Change
Progressive Conservative Alison Redford 72 67
Liberal Raj Sherman 9 8
Wildrose Danielle Smith — 4
New Democratic Brian Mason 2 2
     Independent — 1
Alberta Party Glenn Taylor — 1
Evergreen Larry Ashmore —1 — 1
Social Credit Len Skowronski — —
Separation Bruce Hutton — —
Communist Naomi Rankin — —
Total 83 83 87 +4.8 100.00%

Note:

  • 1 Results change is compared to the Alberta Greens in 2008.

[edit] Timeline

[edit] MLAs not running again

Alberta Party
Independent
Liberal
Progressive Conservative

[edit] Opinion polls

Graphic representation of the opinion polls.
Polling Firm Date of Polling Link PC Liberal Wildrose NDP Alberta Other
Forum Research February 10, 2012 HTML 37 14 30 13 6
Abingdon Research Jan 30–Feb 2, 2012 HTML 37.9 13.7 29.4 14.4 4.5
Return on Insight (ROI) January 25–31, 2012 DOC 46 12 24 14 4 0
Forum Research January 17, 2012 PDF 38 14 29 13 3 4
Leger Marketing January 13–18, 2012 PDF 53 11 16 13 2 6
Forum Research December 14, 2011 HTML 38 12 23 13 6 9
Environics November 4–8, 2011 HTML 51 13 19 14 3
Angus Reid Strategies October 17–19, 2011 PDF 44 16 22 13 2 3
Lethbridge College October 1–2, 2011 PDF 47.7 13.4 16.1 16.3 3.1 3.4
Think HQ Public Affairs September 19–24, 2011 HTML 40 14 24 16 3 3
Environics July 15–24, 2011 HTML 54 13.5 16 13.5 2 1
Think HQ Public Affairs July 2011 HTML 39 11 30 14 4 2
Abingdon[36] May 20–24, 2011 HTML 33.5 15.1 28.6 14.7 5.2 2.9
Environics January 20–31, 2011 HTML 38 22 26 10 4
Environics Nov 22–Dec 2, 2010 HTML 34 19 32 13 2
Lethbridge College October 2–3, 2010 PDF 36.1 20.7 24 10.8 8.4
Environics May 2, 2010 HTML 34 23 28 12 3
Environics March 9, 2010 HTML 34 23 30 10 2*
Angus Reid Strategies February 23, 2010 PDF 27 19 42 9 3
Angus Reid Strategies December 11, 2009 HTML 25 25 39 9 2
Environics October 19–31, 2009 PDF 34 20 28 9 8*
Return on Insight (ROI) October 2009 HTML 34 20 25 10 11*
Lethbridge College /
Athabasca University		 October 2009 PDF 38.4 20.8 21.5 10.7 8.5
Angus Reid Strategies April 2009 HTML 56 19 7 11 7*
Environics December 2008 HTML 62 16 3 6 14*
Environics October 2008 HTML 59 17 6 11 7*
Environics June 2008 HTML 48 25 7 10 10*
Environics March 2008 HTML 54 22 10 10 5*
Election 2008 March 3, 2008 52.66 26.37 6.77 8.52 0.00 5.70*

*These figures include support for the now defunct Alberta Greens, which was included as an option in these surveys.

[edit] Candidates seeking nomination

Bold indicates cabinet members, and party leaders are italicized. Only candidates who have been quoted as running are listed.

[edit] Northern Alberta

Electoral District Candidates Incumbent
Progressive
Conservative		 Liberal Wildrose NDP Alberta
Party		 Other
           
Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater Jeff Johnson[37] Travis Olson[38] Mandy Melnyk[39] Jeff Johnson
Athabasca-Redwater
Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock Maureen Kubinec[37] Link Byfield[38] Trudy Grebenstein[39] Ken Kowalski
Bonnyville-Cold Lake Genia Leskiw[37] Roy Doonanco[38] Luann Bannister[39] Genia Leskiw
Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley Hector Goudreau[37] Nathan Macklin[39] Hector Goudreau
Dunvegan-Central Peace
Fort McMurray-Conklin Don Scott[37] Doug Faulkner[38] Paul Pomerleau[39] New district
Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo Mike Allen[37] Guy Boutilier[38] Denise Woollard [39] Guy Boutilier
Grande Prairie-Smoky Everett Macdonald[37] Todd Loewen[38] Mary Dahr[39] Mel Knight
Grande Prairie-Wapiti Wayne Drysdale[37] Ethane Jarvis[38] Paula Anderson[39] Wayne Drysdale
Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills Ray Danyluk[37] John Nowak[40] Shayne Saskiw[38] Philippe Johnson [39] Ray Danyluk
Lac La Biche-St. Paul
Lesser Slave Lake Pearl Calahasen[37] Darryl Boisson[38] Steve Kaz [39] Pearl Calahasen
Peace River Frank Oberle[37] Alan Forsyth [38] Wanda Laurin[39] Frank Oberle

[edit] Central Edmonton

Electoral District Candidates Incumbent
Progressive
Conservative		 Liberal Wildrose NDP Alberta
Party		 Other
           
Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview Tony Vandermeer[37] Don Martin[38] Deron Bilous[39] Tony Vandermeer
Edmonton-Calder Bev Esslinger[37] Rich Neumann[38] David Eggen[39] Doug Elniski
Edmonton-Centre Akash Khokhar[37] Laurie Blakeman[40] Barb de Groot[38] Nadine Bailey[39] Laurie Blakeman
Edmonton-Glenora Heather Klimchuk[37] Bruce Miller[40] Don Koziak[38] Ray Martin[39] Sue Huff[41] Heather Klimchuk
Edmonton-Gold Bar David Dorward[37] Josipa Petrunic[40] Linda Carlson[38] Marlin Schmidt[39] Dennis O'Neill[41] David Parker[42]
(Evergreen)		 Hugh MacDonald
Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood Cris Basualdo[37] Wayde Lever[38] Brian Mason[39] Brian Mason
Edmonton-Mill Creek Gene Zwozdesky[37] Mike Butler[40] Evelinne Teichgraber[39] Gene Zwozdesky
Edmonton-Mill Woods Sohail Quadri Weslyn Mather[40] Joanne Autio[38] Sandra Azocar[39] Carl Benito
Edmonton-Riverview Steve Young[37] Arif Khan[40] John Corie[38] Lori Sigurdson[39] Kevin Taft
Edmonton-Rutherford Fred Horne[37] Rick Miller[40] Kyle McLeod[38] Melanie Samaroden[39] Michael Walters[41] Fred Horne
Edmonton-Strathcona Meagen LaFave[38] Rachel Notley[39] Rachel Notley

[edit] Suburban Edmonton

Electoral District Candidates Incumbent
Progressive
Conservative		 Liberal Wildrose NDP Alberta
Party		 Other
           
Edmonton-Castle Downs Thomas Lukaszuk[37] John Oplanich[38] Brian Labelle[39] Thomas Lukaszuk
Edmonton-Decore Janice Sarich[37] Ed Ammar[40] Chris Bataluk[38] Ali Haymour[39] Janice Sarich
Edmonton-Ellerslie Naresh Bhardwaj[37] Jackie Lovely[38] Chinwe Okelu[41] Naresh Bhardwaj
Edmonton-Manning Peter Sandhu[37] Daryl Bonar[38] Cindy Olsen[39] Peter Sandhu
Edmonton-McClung David Xiao[37] Mo Elsalhy[40] Peter Janisz[38] Lorne Dach[39] John Hudson[41] David Xiao
Edmonton-Meadowlark Bob Maskell[37] Raj Sherman[40] Rick Newcombe[38] Bridgete Stirling[39] Raj Sherman
Edmonton-South West Matt Jeneroux[37] Rudy Arcilla[40] Allan Hunsperger[38] Sylvie Pourbaix[39] New district
Edmonton-Whitemud David Hancock[37] Rick Szostak[40] Ian Crawford[38] Jim Graves[39] Julia Necheff[41] David Hancock
Sherwood Park Cathy Olesen[37] Dave Anderson[40] Garnett Genuis[38] Sarah Michelin[39] James Ford[43]
(Ind.)		 Iris Evans
St. Albert Stephen Khan[37] James Burrows[38] Nicole Bownes[39] Tim Osborne[41] Ken Allred

[edit] Western and Central Alberta

Electoral District Candidates Incumbent
Progressive
Conservative		 Liberal Wildrose NDP Alberta
Party		 Other
           
Drayton Valley-Devon Diana McQueen[37] Dean Shular[38] Diana McQueen
Drayton Valley-Calmar
Innisfail-Sylvan Lake Luke Ouellette[37] Les Vidok[40] Kerry Towle[38] Patricia Norman[39] Danielle Klooster[41] Luke Ouellette
Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills Darcy Davis[37] Bruce Rowe[38] Kristie Krezanoski[39] Richard Marz
Red Deer-North Mary Anne Jablonski[37] Michael Dawe[40] Randy Weins[38] Derrek Seelinger[39] Mary Anne Jablonski
Red Deer-South Cal Dallas[37] Jason Chilibeck[40] Nathan Stephan[38] Lorna Watkinson-Zimmer[39] Serge Gingras[41] Cal Dallas
Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre Ty Lund[37] Joe Anglin[38] Doreen Broska [39] Ty Lund
Rocky Mountain House
Spruce Grove-St. Albert Doug Horner[37] Travis Hughes[38] J.J. Trudeau[39] Doug Horner
Spruce Grove-Sturgeon-St. Albert
Stony Plain Ken Lemke[37] Arlin Biffert[40] Hal Tagg[38] Linda Robinson[39] Fred Lindsay
West Yellowhead Robin Campbell[37] Stuart Taylor[38] Barry Madsen[39] Glenn Taylor[41] Robin Campbell
Whitecourt-Ste. Anne George VanderBurg[37] Maryann Chichak[38] Blue Knox [39] George VanderBurg

[edit] East Central Alberta

Electoral District Candidates Incumbent
Progressive
Conservative		 Liberal Wildrose NDP Alberta
Party		 Other
           
Battle River-Wainwright Doug Griffiths[37] Dave Nelson[38] Doug Griffiths
Drumheller-Stettler Jack Hayden[37] Rick Strankman[38] Aditya Rao[39] Jack Hayden
Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville Jacquie Fenske[37] Spencer Dunn[40] Shannon Stubbs[38] Chris Fulmer[39] Ed Stelmach
Lacombe-Ponoka Ray Prins[37] Rod Fox[38] Doug Hart[39] Ray Prins
Leduc-Beaumont George Rogers[37] David Stasiewich[38] Hana Razga[39] George Rogers
Leduc-Beaumont-Devon
Strathcona-Sherwood Park Dave Quest[37] John Murray[40] Paul Nemetchek[38] Mike Scott[39] Dave Quest
Vermilion-Lloydminster Richard Starke[37] Danny Hozack[38] Ray Stone[39] Lloyd Snelgrove
Wetaskiwin-Camrose Verlyn Olson[37] Trevor Miller[38] Bruce Hinkley [39] Verlyn Olson

[edit] Central Calgary

Electoral District Candidates Incumbent
Progressive
Conservative		 Liberal Wildrose NDP Alberta
Party		 Other
           
Calgary-Acadia Jonathan Denis[37] Nicole Hankel[40] Richard Jones[38] Nick Lepora[39] Jonathan Denis
Calgary-Egmont
Calgary-Buffalo Kent Hehr[40] Mike Blanchard[38] Rebecca Eras[39] Kent Hehr
Calgary-Currie Christine Cusanelli[37] Norval Horner[40] Corrie Adolph[38] Robert Scobel[39] Norm Kelly[41] Dave Taylor
Calgary-East Moe Amery[37] Jesse Minhas[38] Robyn Luff[39] Moe Amery
Calgary-Elbow Alison Redford[37] James Cole[38] Craig Coolahan[39] William Hamilton[42]
(Evergreen)		 Alison Redford
Calgary-Fish Creek Wendelin Fraser[37] Nazir Rahemtulla[40] Heather Forsyth[38] Eric Leavitt[39] Heather Forsyth
Calgary-Fort Wayne Cao[37] Said Abdulbaki[40] Jeevan Mangat[38] Don Monroe[39] Wayne Cao
Calgary-Glenmore Linda Johnson[37] Paul Hinman[38] Rick Collier[39] Paul Hinman
Calgary-Klein Kyle Fawcett[37] Chris Tahn[40] Jeremy Nixon[38] Marc Power[39] Kyle Fawcett
Calgary-North Hill
Calgary-Mountain View Cecilia Low[37] David Swann[40] Shane McAllister[38] Christopher McMillan[39] David Swann
Calgary-Varsity Donna Kennedy-Glans[37] Bruce Payne[40] Justin Anderson[38] Jackie Seidel [39] Carl Svoboda[42]
(Evergreen)		 Harry Chase

[edit] Suburban Calgary

Electoral District Candidates Incumbent
Progressive
Conservative		 Liberal Wildrose NDP Alberta
Party		 Other
           
Calgary-Bow Alana DeLong[37] Stephanie Shewchuk[40] Tim Dyck[38] Jason Nishiyama[39] Alana DeLong
Calgary-Cross Yvonne Fritz[37] Narita Sherman[40] Happy Mann[38] Reinaldo Contreras[39] Yvonne Fritz
Calgary-Foothills Len Webber[37] Kurt Hansen[40] Dustin Nau[38] Jenn Carkner[39] Len Webber
Calgary-Greenway Manmeet Bhullar[37] Iqtidar Awan[40] Ron Leech[38] Al Brown[39] Manmeet Bhullar
Calgary-Montrose
Calgary-Hawkwood Jason Luan[37] Maria Davis[40] David Yager[38] Collin Anderson[39] Kevin Woron[41] New district
Calgary-Hays Ric McIver[37] Brian MacPhee[40] Regina Vergara[39] Arthur Johnston
Calgary-Lougheed David Rodney[37] John Carpay[38] Brent Kelly[39] David Rodney
Calgary-Mackay-Nose Hill Neil Brown[37] Roy Alexander[38] Anne Wilson[39] Teresa Woo-Paw
Calgary-Mackay
Merged district
Neil Brown
Calgary-Nose Hill
Calgary-McCall Muhammad Rasheed[37] Darshan Kang[40] Grant Galpin[38] Colette Singh[39] Darshan Kang
Calgary-North West Sandra Jansen[37] Robert Prcic[40] Chris Challis[38] Brian Malkinson[39] Lindsay Blackett
Calgary-Northern Hills Teresa Woo-Paw[37] Prasad Panda[38] Stephanie Woodlund[39] Teresa Woo-Paw
Calgary-Mackay
Calgary-Shaw Cindy Ady[37] Jeff Wilson[38] Ashley Fairall[39] Brandon Beasley[41] Cindy Ady
Calgary-South East Rick Fraser[37] Bill Jarvis[38] Marta Warszynski [39] New district
Calgary-West Wilson McCutchan[40] Andrew Constantinidis[38] Mary Nokleby[39] Ron Liepert
Chestermere-Rocky View Ted Morton[37] Bruce McAllister[38] Nathan Salmon[39] Ted Morton
Foothills-Rocky View
Merged district
Rob Anderson
Airdrie-Chestermere

[edit] Southern Alberta

Electoral District Candidates Incumbent
Progressive
Conservative		 Liberal Wildrose NDP Alberta
Party		 Other
           
Airdrie Kelly Hegg[37] Rob Anderson[38] Bryan Young[39] Rob Anderson
Airdrie-Chestermere
Banff-Cochrane Ron Casey[37] Pete Helfrich[40] Tom Copithorne[38] Jamie Kleinsteuber[39] Janis Tarchuk
Cardston-Taber-Warner Pat Shimbashi[37] Gary Bikman[38] Broyce Jacobs
Cypress-Medicine Hat Leonard Mitzel[37] Drew Barnes[38] Leonard Mitzel
Highwood John Barlow[37] Danielle Smith[38] Miles Dato [39] George Groeneveld
Lethbridge-East Bridget Pastoor[37] Kent Prestage[38] Tom Moffatt[39] Bridget Pastoor
Lethbridge-West Greg Weadick[37] Bal Boora[40] Kevin Kinahan[38] Shannon Phillips[39] Greg Weadick
Little Bow John Kolk[37] Everett Tanis[40] Ian Donovan[38] Bev Muendel-Atherstone[39] Barry McFarland
Livingstone-Macleod Evan Berger[37] Pat Stier[38] Matthew Halton[39] Larry Ashmore[42]
(Evergreen)		 Evan Berger
Medicine Hat Darren Hirsch[37] Blake Pedersen[38] Dennis Perrier[39] Graham Murray[42]
(Evergreen)		 Rob Renner
Strathmore-Brooks Arno Doerksen[37] Jason Hale[38] Brad Bailey [39] Arno Doerksen

[edit] References

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  36. ^ This poll paid for and provided to the press by the Wildrose Alliance Party
  37. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap aq ar as at au av aw ax ay az ba bb bc bd be bf bg bh bi bj bk bl bm bn bo bp bq br bs bt bu bv bw bx by bz ca cb cc cd ce "Nominated Candidates". PC Alberta. http://www.albertapc.ab.ca/admin/contentx/default.cfm?PageId=10188. Retrieved February 20, 2012. 
  38. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap aq ar as at au av aw ax ay az ba bb bc bd be bf bg bh bi bj bk bl bm bn bo bp bq br bs bt bu bv bw bx by bz ca cb cc cd ce cf "Candidates". Wildrose Party. http://www.wildrose.ca/team/candidates/. Retrieved February 20, 2012. 
  39. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap aq ar as at au av aw ax ay az ba bb bc bd be bf bg bh bi bj bk bl bm bn bo bp bq br bs bt bu bv bw bx by bz ca cb cc cd "Your Candidates". Alberta's NDP. http://www.albertandp.ca/candidates. Retrieved February 20, 2012. 
  40. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an "Candidates". Alberta Liberal Party. http://www.albertaliberal.com/candidates.php. Retrieved February 20, 2012. 
  41. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m "Candidates". Alberta Party. http://www.albertaparty.ca/candidates/. Retrieved February 20, 2012. 
  42. ^ a b c d e "Candidates". EverGreen Party. http://evergreenparty.ca/candidates.html. Retrieved February 20, 2012. 
  43. ^ Gerein, Keith (January 31, 2012). "Sherwood Park PC vote as close as it gets". Edmonton Journal. http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2012/01/31/sherwood-park-pc-vote-as-close-as-it-gets/. Retrieved February 12, 2012. 

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