3G (countries)

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search
3G Countries
Type Growth potential economies
Members

3G countries or Global Growth Generators countries are 11 countries economies which have been identified as sources of growth potential and of profitable investment opportunities.

Background[edit]

Prepared in February 2011, a Citigroup report prepared by analysts Willem Buiter (Chief Economist) and Ebrahim Rahbari noted that BRICS (BRIC plus South Africa) countries have "outlived their usefulness". "We hold the view that categories emerging markets, advanced economies, developing countries, BRICS, Next Eleven or the Growth Markets are all labels belonging to classification schemes that either have outlived their usefulness or are unlikely to ever have any," the two analysts said. So, long run continues growths are important, although some of the eleven countries identified are poor today and have decades of catch-up growth to look forward to.[1]

The grouping based on a weighted average of 6 growth drivers:

  • Domestic saving/investment
  • Demographic prospects
  • Health
  • Education
  • Quality of institutions and policies
  • Trade openness

3G Index Score[edit]

Global Growth Generators (3G) countries 2010-2050
Country 2010 GDP/Capita[2]  % of US GDP/Capita[3]  % Av. Growth 3G Index
 Bangladesh $1,735 4 6.3 0.39
 China $7,430 16 5.0 0.81
 Egypt $5,878 13 5.0 0.37
 India $3,298 7 6.4 0.71
 Indonesia $4,363 10 5.6 0.70
 Iraq $3,538 8 6.1 0.58
 Mongolia $3,764 8 6.3 0.63
 Nigeria $2,335 5 6.9 0.25
 Philippines $3,684 8 5.5 0.60
 Sri Lanka $4,988 11 5.9 0.33
 Vietnam $3,108 7 6.4 0.86

Note: China and India highligted in Gold with Bold text as also BRIC countries. Bigger index means better conditions. GDP per capita measured at 2010 PPP USD. Average growth is average growth in forecast of real GDP per capita measured at 2010 PPP USD.

3G countries[edit]

The most promising growth prospects countries are: Bangladesh, China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Iraq, Mongolia, Nigeria, Philippines, Sri Lanka and Vietnam. China and India as BRIC countries are 3G countries, but not for Brazil, and Russia. Developing Asia and Africa will be fastest growing regions until 2050, driven by population and income growth, so all of 3G countries came from the both continents (Asia by 9 countries and Africa by 2 countries) and no one from the other continents.[4] Vietnam has the highest Global Growth Generators Index among the 11 major economies, China is second with 0.81, followed by India's 0.71. This holds Vietnam as world's highest potential source of high growth and profitable investment opportunities.[5]

October 2011: Based on a report from the HSBC Trade Confidence Index (TCI) and HSBC Trade Forecast there are 4 countries with significant trade volume growth, i.e. Egypt, India, Vietnam and Indonesia with growth expected at least 7.3 percent per year until 2025.[6]

Others countries[edit]

Iran and North Korea could catch the 3G countries if they achieve political transitions and open their economies. Some might add Argentina, Myanmar, and Venezuela. Whether Mexico, Brazil, Turkey and Thailand will catch 3G countries depends on increasing their domestic saving/investment rates substantially. Some developed countries, such as Ireland, Canada, Australia and the USA could also become 3G countries, as stated in the report.

The Top 10 Largest Economies in the World[edit]

List of the top 10 largest economies by nominal GDP from 2010 to 2050 (in current USD)[7]
2010 Rank Country GDP 2030 Rank Country GDP 2050 Rank Country GDP
1  United States 14,612 1  China 57,138 1  China 205,321
2  China 5,860 2  United States 35,739 2  India 180,490
3  Japan 5,465 3  India 24,824 3  United States 83,805
4  Germany 3,292 4  Japan 9,213 4  Indonesia 45,901
5  France 2,602 5  Brazil 8,780 5  Nigeria 42,437
6  United Kingdom 2,259 6  Russia 7,380 6  Brazil 33,199
7  Italy 2,044 7  Indonesia 7,299 7  Russia 19,697
8  Brazil 1,989 8  Germany 6,466 8  Japan 16,394
9  India 1,596 9  United Kingdom 5,819 9  Philippines 14,738
10  Canada 1,572 10  France 5,236 10  United Kingdom 13,846

Note: 3G countries are highlighted in green colour and bold text.

List of the top 10 richest countries by GDP per capita in 2010 and 2050 (in current USD)[8]
2010 Rank Country GDP per capita 2050 Rank Country GDP per capita
1  Singapore 56,532 1  Singapore 137,710
2  Norway 51,226 2  Hong Kong 116,639
3  United States 45,511 3  Taiwan 114,093
4  Hong Kong 45,301 4  Republic of Korea 107,752
5   Switzerland 42,470 5  United States 100,802
6  Netherlands 40,736 6  Saudi Arabia 98,311
7  Australia 40,525 7  Canada 96,375
8  Austria 39,073 8  United Kingdom 91,130
9  Canada 38,640 9   Switzerland 90,956
10  Sweden 36,438 10  Austria 90,158

Note: There are no 3G countries on the list above, because most of the 3G countries have large populations.

References[edit]

External links[edit]