United Kingdom general election, 2010

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United Kingdom general election
All 650 seats of the House of Commons
on or before 3 June 2010
Gordon Brown Davos 2008 crop.jpg Davidcameron.jpg Nick Clegg - Crop.jpg
Leader Gordon Brown David Cameron Nick Clegg
Party Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat
Leader since 24 June 2007 6 December 2005 18 December 2007
Leader's seat Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Witney Sheffield Hallam
Last election 356 seats, 35.3% 198 seats, 32.3% 62 seats, 22.1%
Seats needed –22 +118 +264
1997 election • MPs
2001 election • MPs
2005 election • MPs
2010 election

The next United Kingdom general election is due to take place on or before Thursday 3 June 2010, barring exceptional circumstances. As a general election, it will see voting take place in all constituencies of the United Kingdom, to appoint Members of Parliament (MPs) to seats in the House of Commons, the lower house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom.

The number of seats will rise from 646 to 650 under the proposals made by the Boundary Commissions for England, Wales, and Northern Ireland, the Scottish Boundary Commission having made its last review prior to the 2005 general election.[1][2]

The governing Labour Party will be looking to secure a fourth consecutive term in office and to restore support lost since 1997.[3] The Conservative Party will seek to regain its dominant position in politics after losses in the 1990s, and to replace Labour as the governing party. The Liberal Democrats hope to make gains from both sides; although they too would ideally wish to form a government, their more realistic ambition is to hold the balance of power in a hung parliament. In 2009, it was reported that senior civil servants are to meet with the Liberal Democrats to discuss their policies, an indication of how seriously the prospect of a hung parliament is being taken.[4] The Scottish National Party, encouraged by their victory in the 2007 Scottish parliament elections, have set themselves a target of 20 MPs and will also be hoping to find themselves in a balance of power position.[5] Smaller parties who have had successes at local elections and the 2009 European elections (United Kingdom Independence Party, Green Party, British National Party) will look to extend their representation to seats in the House of Commons. The Jury Team, launched in March 2009, intends to increase the number of Independent politicians in the House of Commons by backing suitable candidates in the election.

Despite extensive media speculation in 2007 about a possible snap election, the Government decided against calling a general election during 2007 or 2008. The election is the first to be faced by the Labour leader Gordon Brown as Prime Minister, having been appointed as party leader in 2007 after the resignation of Tony Blair. It is also the first election to be faced by the main opposition party leaders, David Cameron of the Conservatives and Nick Clegg of the Liberal Democrats.

Contents

[edit] Date of the election

Under the provisions of the Septennial Act 1715 as amended by the Parliament Act 1911, the next general election must be held on or before Thursday 3 June 2010,[6] barring exceptional circumstances. In recent times, and certainly since the enactment of the Septennial Act 1715, Parliament has not been allowed to expire. The present Parliament which first met on 11 May 2005 will expire at midnight on 10 May 2010.[7][8] The previous general election in the UK was held on 5 May 2005. Assuming a proclamation summoning a new Parliament is issued 10 May, the latest possible date of the general election would be 3 June 2010.[8]

The next general election will most probably be called following the dissolution of the current Parliament. Parliament is dissolved by the Monarch, usually at the request of the Prime Minister. Dissolution can occur at any time within five years of the start of that Parliament. However, since the Parliamentary term was set at five years, Parliaments have most often sat for four years, with fresh elections being called at the start of the fifth year.[9] The local elections for 2010 have been firmly scheduled for 6 May, and some commentators have suggested that the general election may also be held on this day.[10]

In November 2006 it was reported that activists for the governing Labour Party were being warned to prepare for a general election as early as 2008.[11] In June 2007, in his speech accepting his appointment as leader of the Labour Party, Brown declared that he was appointing a member of the government as election co-ordinator. This was considered by some suggestive that he was intending to call an election earlier than expected.[12] After much media speculation in early October 2007 that an election would be called for first week of November 2007,[13] Gordon Brown announced in an interview with the BBC's Andrew Marr that he would not call an election 'in the next period', thought to mean 2007 or 2008.[14] This announcement followed an opinion poll of marginal constituencies targeted by the Conservatives, which indicated that an election could result in the loss of the overall Labour majority.[15] Studies of the impact of the new boundaries suggest that if votes were to be cast in the same number and distribution as at the 2005 general election then Labour's majority would be reduced to about 42 seats, and even at the last general election a redistribution of several thousand votes would have been enough under the old boundaries for Labour to have lost its overall majority.

[edit] Leadership of the main parties

See also: Conservative Party (UK) leadership election, 2005, Liberal Democrats leadership election, 2006, Labour Party (UK) leadership election, 2007, and Liberal Democrats leadership election, 2007

David Cameron became Conservative leader in December 2005 replacing Michael Howard. Gordon Brown succeeded Tony Blair as leader of the Labour Party on 27 June 2007. Nick Clegg was elected as leader of the Liberal Democrats in December 2007 succeeding to Sir Menzies Campbell who resigned on 15 October 2007 after having replaced Charles Kennedy who had himself resigned in March 2006. The last time all three main parties went into a general election with new leaders was in the 1979 election, when James Callaghan as Labour leader, Margaret Thatcher for the Conservatives, and David Steel with the then-Liberal Party took to the polls.

The leadership of each party may have implications beyond party popularity at the polls, especially if a hung parliament requires the formation of a coalition or minority government. Whereas Tony Blair courted the Liberal Democrats for possible coalition in the 1997 Parliament even though Labour had a clear majority, Gordon Brown is thought[by whom?] to be more resistant to co-operation with the Liberal Democrats.[citation needed] David Cameron is attempting to make a pitch towards "Middle England" — the people who it is said have abandoned the Conservative Party since 1992 for Labour or the Liberal Democrats.[16]

Nick Clegg[17] and Menzies Campbell[18] have continued the position of Charles Kennedy of not being prepared to form a coalition with either main party and of voting against any Queen's Speech unless there was an unambiguous commitment in it to introduce proportional representation.

[edit] Other parties

See also: List of political parties in the United Kingdom

There is one independent member of Parliament, Dai Davies, elected in a by-election in succession to fellow independent Peter Law, who died in April 2006. Since the last election, Clare Short and Bob Wareing have resigned the Labour whip, with Short planning to stand down at the next election and Wareing planning to contest his seat as an independent, having been deselected by the local Constituency Labour Party. Three MPs elected as Conservative in 2005 are no longer under the Conservative whip, of which only one, Bob Spink, plans to stand at the next election, after having been deselected and defecting to the UK Independence Party[19] (although he does not sit as a UKIP MP and now claims never to have joined UKIP[20]). It is possible that the number of independent MPs will continue to increase as members are expelled or resign.

Within Northern Ireland, none of the main parties from Great Britain has any representation. At the 2005 election, Sinn Féin (who do not take their seats as they will not swear the Oath of Allegiance to the Queen) won five seats whilst the Democratic Unionist Party won nine. This continued their expansion at the expense of the Social Democratic and Labour Party (3 seats) and the Ulster Unionist Party (1 seat) respectively. This shift continued trends in both the nationalist and unionist communities that had been seen in the previous two elections, and was also replicated in the 2007 elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly. In 2008, the DUP announced their intention to sit with the Conservative Party in parliament, while in 2009 the UUP and Conservative Party announced they had formed an electoral alliance.

Other parties with representation at the previous general election at Westminster include the Scottish National Party and Plaid Cymru from Scotland and Wales respectively; and RESPECT The Unity Coalition and Health Concern, each of which hold one Parliamentary seat from England. Since that election, the Scottish National Party have been victors in the 2007 Scottish Parliament elections, whilst the Labour Party remained the largest party in the Welsh Assembly, though Plaid Cymru increased their share of the vote.

Many constituencies will be contested by other, smaller parties. Parties that won no representatives at Westminster in 2005 but have seats in the devolved assemblies or European Parliament include the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland, the British National Party, the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), and the Green parties in the UK: the Green Party of England and Wales, the Scottish Green Party, and the Green Party in Northern Ireland. UKIP's leader, Roger Knapman, retired as leader on his term ending in 2006 with the leadership election on 12 September 2006 electing Nigel Farage as his replacement. With the defection of former Conservative MP Bob Spink to the party on 22 April 2008, UKIP gained its first seat in the House of Commons, though Spink has now become an independent member.[21] In 2009, Nigel Farage would resign as UKIP leader to focus his attention on becoming a Member of Parliament. Farage was replaced by Malcolm Pearson, Baron Pearson of Rannoch, elected by party members, who's stated intention would be for the electoral support of UKIP to force a hung parliament. The Green Party of England and Wales has voted to have a position of leader for the first time; the first leadership election was won by Caroline Lucas, Prospective Parliamentary Candidate to contest the constituency of Brighton Pavilion.

The Jury Team, launched in March 2009 and described as a "non-party party", is an umbrella organisation seeking to increase the number of Independent politicians in the UK.[22] Citing a YouGov poll that suggests that 55% of electors would vote for an Independent candidate if they thought they had a realistic chance of being elected, Jury Team intends "break the traditional party leaderships' control over the political process" by giving any member of the public a chance to stand as an Independent in the next general election.[23]

[edit] Opinion polls, and analysis of votes in relation to numbers of seats

Main article: Opinion polling in the United Kingdom general election, 2010
See also: Exit poll, Opinion poll, Spoiler effect, Tactical voting, Voting system, and Wasted vote

The fact that each MP is elected separately makes it impossible to directly interpret national shares of the vote into a clear outcome in United Kingdom general elections as it is unknown for all constituencies in a general election to exactly reflect national trends. However, analysis of previous elections shows that approximate forecasting of results can be achieved by assuming that the swing in each individual constituency will be the same across the country. This system is used by much of the media in the UK to assess electoral fortunes.

Due to the boundary changes which will come into effect at the election, the benchmarks for relating national vote share to the outcome in seats have been recalculated by a team led by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher. Figures in brackets represents the headline lead. Note that these figures do not take into account the performance of the Liberal Democrats, minor or nationalist parties, Independent candidates, or localised effects caused by a change in the distribution of the Labour and Conservative vote and that of other parties.

Uniform national swing Result
Any to Lab Increased Labour majority in Parliament (Labour lead greater than 3%)
Up to 1.6% to Con Reduced Labour majority (Labour lead of up to 3%)
1.6% – 4.3% to Con Labour hung parliament (A Conservative lead of up to 6%)
4.3% – 6.9% Con Conservative hung parliament (A Conservative lead of up to 9%)
More than 6.9% to Con Conservative overall majority (A Conservative lead of over 9%)

Normally governments can easily survive for a full parliamentary term on a majority of more than 20 seats over all other parties. Below that level there is a danger of by-elections and MPs crossing the floor of the House reducing the government to a minority such that it would be at increased risk of losing a vote of no confidence in the government.

The first past the post nature of the system may not reflect the national popular vote shares across the parties, although sometimes individual parties achieve similar shares of votes and seats. In addition, it is not necessarily the party with the largest share of the popular vote nationwide that ends up the largest grouping of MPs, and since 1935 no single party has achieved more than 50% of the popular vote in a UK general election. With a widely distributed vote not concentrated in particular areas, a party is at risk of getting a large vote share but doing poorly in terms of numbers of seats (as the SDP-Liberal Alliance did in the 1980s), whereas parties with very strong localised votes can win seats with a relatively small share of the vote.

[edit] Television debates

Main article: United Kingdom general election debates, 2010

In September 2009, Sky News started to campaign for televised debates between the leaders of the three main parties. David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Gordon Brown have agreed to take part.[24] If they do take place, the debates will be the first of their kind in the UK.

[edit] MPs not seeking re-election

This general election has an unusually high number of MPs choosing not to seek re-election. Currently, more MPs are standing down at the next general election than at any since the 1945 election, and it is predicted that that election's total will also be surpassed.[25]

In all, 78 Labour MPs, 32 Conservatives, seven Liberal Democrats, two independents, one Independent Conservative and one member each from the Democratic Unionist Party, Plaid Cymru and the Scottish National Party have announced that they will not be contesting the next election.

[edit] Labour

  1. Hilary Armstrong — North West Durham, announced 4 July 2009[26]
  2. John Austin — Erith and Thamesmead, announced 31 July 2008[27]
  3. John Battle — Leeds West, announced 20 October 2006[28]
  4. Des Browne — Kilmarnock and Loudoun, announced 27 November 2009[29]
  5. Colin Burgon — Elmet, announced 23 April 2009[30]
  6. Stephen Byers — North Tyneside, announced 14 November 2009[31]
  7. Richard Caborn — Sheffield Central, announced 13 September 2007[32]
  8. Colin Challen — Morley and Rothwell, announced 30 January 2007[33]
  9. Ben Chapman — Wirral South, announced 21 May 2009 [34]
  10. David Chaytor — Bury North, announced 2 June 2009[35]
  11. Michael Clapham — Barnsley West and Penistone, announced 14 November 2006[36]
  12. Harry Cohen — Leyton and Wanstead, announced 30 June 2009 [37]
  13. Frank Cook — Stockton North, deselected 12 January 2008[38]
  14. Jim Cousins — Newcastle upon Tyne Central, announced 9 June 2009[39]
  15. Ann Cryer — Keighley, announced 21 August 2008[40]
  16. John Cummings — Easington, announced 9 October 2006[41]
  17. Claire Curtis-Thomas — Crosby, announced 7 October 2009[42]
  18. Janet Dean — Burton, announced 20 June 2007[43]
  19. Bill Etherington — Sunderland North, announced 9 December 2006[44]
  20. Barbara Follett — Stevenage, announced 1 October 2009[45]
  21. Neil Gerrard — Walthamstow, announced 23 February 2007[46]
  22. John Grogan — Selby, announced 10 October 2006[47]
  23. Doug Henderson — Newcastle upon Tyne North, announced 4 July 2009[26]
  24. Patricia Hewitt — Leicester West, announced 2 June 2009[48]
  25. Keith Hill — Streatham, announced 23 May 2007[49]
  26. Kim Howells — Pontypridd, announced 18 December 2009[50]
  27. Beverley Hughes — Stretford and Urmston, announced 2 June 2009[48]
  28. John Hutton — Barrow and Furness, announced 5 June 2009[51]
  29. Brian Iddon — Bolton South East, announced 5 October 2006[52]
  30. Adam Ingram — East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow, announced 27 March 2009[53]
  31. Lynne Jones — Birmingham Selly Oak, announced January 2007[54]
  32. Martyn Jones — Clwyd South, announced 7 May 2009[55]
  33. Ruth Kelly — Bolton West, announced 2 October 2008[56]
  34. Fraser Kemp — Houghton and Washington East. announced 6 September 2008[57]
  35. Jane Kennedy — Liverpool Wavertree, announced 9 November 2009[58]
  36. Robert Laxton — Derby North, announced 19 October 2009[59]
  37. David Lepper — Brighton Pavilion, announced 19 September 2006[60]
  38. Tom Levitt — High Peak, announced 12 November 2009[61]
  39. Chris McCafferty — Calder Valley, announced 7 March 2007[62]
  40. Ian McCartney — Makerfield, announced 23 May 2009[63]
  41. Rosemary McKenna — Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East, announced 3 August 2007[64]
  42. Andrew MacKinlay — Thurrock, announced 24 July 2009[65]
  43. Bob Marshall-Andrews — Medway, announced 17 July 2007[66]
  44. Eric Martlew — Carlisle, announced 1 May 2009[67]
  45. Alan Milburn — Darlington, announced 27 June 2009[68]
  46. Margaret Moran — Luton South, announced 28 May 2009[69]
  47. Elliot Morley — Scunthorpe, announced 29 May 2009[70]
  48. Kali Mountford — Colne Valley, announced 16 January 2009[71]
  49. Chris Mullin — Sunderland South, announced 10 May 2008[72]
  50. Denis Murphy — Wansbeck, announced 5 November 2009[73]
  51. Doug Naysmith — Bristol North West, announced 26 January 2007[74]
  52. Bill Olner — Nuneaton, announced 25 March 2007[75]
  53. Greg Pope — Hyndburn, announced 11 June 2009[76]
  54. Bridget Prentice — Lewisham East, announced 6 April 2009[77]
  55. John Prescott — Hull East, announced 27 August 2007[78]
  56. Ken Purchase — Wolverhampton North East, announced 27 October 2007[79]
  57. John Reid — Airdrie and Shotts, announced 15 September 2007[80]
  58. Martin Salter — Reading West, announced 10 February 2009[81]
  59. Mohammad Sarwar — Glasgow Central, announced 21 June 2007[82]
  60. Alan Simpson — Nottingham South, announced 18 February 2007[83]
  61. John Smith — Vale of Glamorgan, announced 22 May 2009[84]
  62. Helen Southworth — Warrington South, announced 16 June 2009[85]
  63. Ian Stewart — Eccles, defeated in selection for merged seat 19 January 2008[86]
  64. Howard Stoate — Dartford, announced 28 July 2009[87]
  65. Gavin Strang — Edinburgh East, announced 26 November 2007,[88] but reversed his decision 31 March 2008.[89] He announced on 27 June 2008 that he will stand down after all.[90]
  66. David Taylor — North West Leicestershire, announced 13 May 2008[91]
  67. Paddy Tipping — Sherwood, announced 23 October 2009[92]
  68. Mark Todd — South Derbyshire, announced 21 September 2007[93]
  69. Paul Truswell — Pudsey, announced 8 July 2009[94]
  70. Des Turner — Brighton Kemptown, announced 23 October 2006[95]
  71. Neil Turner — Wigan, announced 31 July 2009[96]
  72. Kitty Ussher — Burnley, announced 17 June 2009[97]
  73. Rudi Vis — Finchley and Golders Green, announced 28 May 2008[98]
  74. Alan Williams — Swansea West, announced September 2006[99]
  75. Betty Williams — Conwy, announced 12 September 2008[100]
  76. Michael Wills — North Swindon, announced 14 September 2009[101]
  77. Tony Wright — Cannock Chase, announced 21 July 2008[102]
  78. Derek Wyatt — Sittingbourne and Sheppey, announced 1 July 2009 [103]

Labour's National Executive Committee barred five MPs from standing as official Labour Party candidates at the next general election in the wake of the United Kingdom Parliamentary expenses scandal.[104][105] However, they could stand as independent candidates. Three of these MPs, David Chaytor, Margaret Moran and Elliot Morley, have stated that they will be standing down as MPs. Another, Ian Gibson, resigned his seat, causing a by-election in Norwich North that was won by Conservative candidate Chloe Smith. The fifth, Jim Devine, has not yet stated whether he plans to stand down as an MP, resign, or stand as an independent for re-election as MP for Livingston.[106][107]

[edit] Conservative

  1. Michael Ancram — Devizes, announced 11 August 2009[108]
  2. Peter Atkinson — Hexham, announced 19 June 2008[109]
  3. Tim Boswell — Daventry, announced 31 March 2006[110]
  4. Angela Browning — Tiverton and Honiton, announced 17 November 2006[111]
  5. Sir John Butterfill — Bournemouth West, announced 17 March 2008[112]
  6. Sir Patrick Cormack — South Staffordshire, announced 1 December 2009[113]
  7. David Curry — Skipton and Ripon, announced 5 February 2009[114]
  8. Christopher Fraser — Norfolk South West, announced 28 May 2009[115]
  9. Paul Goodman — Wycombe, announced 5 June 2009[116]
  10. John Greenway — Ryedale, announced 28 November 2006[117]
  11. Douglas Hogg — Sleaford and North Hykeham, announced 19 May 2009[118]
  12. John Horam — Orpington, announced 12 October 2009[119]
  13. Michael Howard — Folkestone and Hythe, announced 17 March 2006[120]
  14. Michael Jack — Fylde, announced 14 March 2008[121]
  15. Robert Key — Salisbury, announced 2 December 2009[122]
  16. Julie Kirkbride — Bromsgrove, announced on 28 May 2009 that she would stand down,[123] reversed her decision on 5 November,[124] then announced she would indeed stand down on 18 December[125]
  17. Jacqui Lait — Beckenham, announced 21 September 2009[126]
  18. Sir Michael Lord — Central Suffolk and North Ipswich, announced 12 September 2009[127]
  19. Andrew MacKay — Bracknell, announced 23 May 2009[128]
  20. David Maclean — Penrith and The Border, announced 26 June 2009[129]
  21. Humfrey Malins — Woking, announced 16 March 2009[130]
  22. Michael Mates — East Hampshire, announced 24 November 2006[131]
  23. Malcolm Moss — North East Cambridgeshire, announced 6 September 2007[132]
  24. Sir Michael Spicer — West Worcestershire, announced 24 March 2006[133]
  25. Richard Spring — West Suffolk, announced 23 November 2009[134]
  26. Anthony Steen — Totnes, announced 20 May 2009[135]
  27. Ian Taylor — Esher and Walton, announced 16 June 2009[136]
  28. Sir Peter Viggers — Gosport, announced 20 May 2009[137]
  29. Ann Widdecombe — Maidstone and The Weald, announced 7 October 2007 [138]
  30. David Wilshire — Spelthorne, announced 15 October 2009[139]
  31. Sir Nicholas Winterton — Macclesfield, announced 25 May 2009[140]
  32. Ann, Lady Winterton — Congleton, announced 25 May 2009[140]

[edit] Liberal Democrats

  1. John Barrett — Edinburgh West, announced 25 July 2009[141]
  2. Colin Breed — South East Cornwall, announced 9 October 2007[142]
  3. David Howarth — Cambridge, announced 5 November 2009[143]
  4. Paul Keetch — Hereford, announced 16 November 2006[144]
  5. Mark Oaten — Winchester, announced 25 July 2006[145]
  6. Matthew Taylor — Truro and St Austell, announced 17 January 2007.[146]
  7. Phil Willis — Harrogate and Knaresborough, announced 18 May 2007.[147]

[edit] Other parties

  1. Derek Conway (Independent conservative; Conservative Party whip withdrawn) — Old Bexley and Sidcup, announced 30 January 2008[148]
  2. Ian Paisley (Democratic Unionist Party) — North Antrim, announced January 2008[149], may reverse decision.[150]
  3. Andrew Pelling (Independent; Conservative Party whip withdrawn) — Croydon Central, announced 4 December 2007[151]
  4. Adam Price (Plaid Cymru) — Carmarthen East and Dinefwr, announced 18 September 2009[152]
  5. Alex Salmond MSP (Scottish National Party) — Banff and Buchan, announced 15 January 2006[153] (will remain an MSP)
  6. Clare Short (Independent; elected as Labour MP, resigned the whip 20 October 2006) — Birmingham Ladywood, announced 14 September 2006.[154][155]

[edit] Boundary changes

Main article: Boundary changes for the United Kingdom general election, 2010
The notional results of the 2005 election, if they had taken place with the new boundaries.

The current list of constituencies likely to be used in the next United Kingdom general election (in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland) is in Constituencies in the next United Kingdom general election.

The four national Boundary Commissions are required by the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 1986 (as amended by the Boundary Commissions Act 1992) to conduct a general review of all the constituencies in its part of the United Kingdom every eight to twelve years to ensure the size and composition of constituencies are as fair as possible.

Scotland saw its most recent large-scale review completed in 2004, so the boundaries used in the 2005 general election in Scotland will still apply at the next UK general election; England, Wales and Northern Ireland are due to have their first boundary changes in parliamentary constituencies since the 1997 general election.

Constituencies in Wales were reviewed by the Boundary Commission for Wales. The recommendations were laid before Parliament on 14 December 2005 and approved on 11 April 2006.[156] The new constituencies will apply from the next general election.

In Wales, the total number of seats is to remain at 40, although new seats have been recommended by radical redrawing of boundaries in Clwyd and Gwynedd: Arfon and Dwyfor Meirionnydd replace Caernarfon and Meirionnydd Nant Conwy respectively; Aberconwy replaces Conwy. Currently Welsh constituencies have on average 25,000 fewer people than their counterparts in England.

The Boundary Commission for England completed and sent its recommendations to the Secretary of State for Constitutional Affairs on 31 October 2006. The changes, which included four additional seats, were given effect by Statutory Instrument on 13 June 2007.[157]

In 2006 the Northern Ireland Boundary Commission proposed minor changes to its eastern constituencies. The changes were given effect by Statutory Instrument on 11 June 2008.[158] For the first time, these changes include the splitting of an electoral ward between two constituencies.

Based on studies using ward by ward data from local elections and the 2005 general election, it is believed that boundary changes implemented for the expected general election notionally reduce the number of Labour seats by nine, given that there are to be four more seats in the next parliament this notionally reduces Labour's majority from 66 to 44.

[edit] Marginal seats for main parties

Following the Boundary Commissions' reports recommending changes to seats in England, Northern Ireland, and Wales various estimates have been made of the electoral effect of the changes in each constituency. The most respected of these estimates is "The Media Guide to the New Parliamentary Constituencies" compiled and edited by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, which was published in February 2007.[159] The website UKPollingReport has also compiled estimates.[160] The various estimates differ in detail.

Arising out of those estimates, lists of the most marginal seats have been compiled. They are the seats where the party needs to overturn the lowest percentage majority to win the seat. These are not necessarily the seats where it will be easiest to do so, or the only seats that the party will actually be targeting at the next election. A complete list for each party is currently being compiled in party order starting with the Conservatives which can be found here, with the top 50 Labour here, top 50 Liberal Democrat and top 25 Plaid and SNP targets to follow.

N.B. The "Winning Party" is notional (except in the case of Scottish constituencies and Islington South and Finsbury), calculated on the Boundary Commission changes made to the seat, and may not be the same as the party that won the seat in the 2005 general election.

[edit] Labour targets

Rank Constituency Winning party Swing to gain
1 Sittingbourne and Sheppey Conservative 0.03
2 Clwyd West Conservative 0.07
3 Hemel Hempstead Conservative 0.18
4 Kettering Conservative 0.20
5 North East Somerset Conservative 0.23
6 Finchley and Golders Green Conservative 0.35
7 Shipley Conservative 0.48
8 Dundee East SNP 0.48
9 Rochester and Strood Conservative 0.57
10 Wellingborough Conservative 0.62

[edit] Conservative targets

Rank Constituency Winning party Swing to gain
1 Gillingham and Rainham Labour 0.021
2 Crawley Labour 0.04
3 York Outer Liberal Democrat 0.22
4 Romsey and Southampton North Liberal Democrat 0.23
5 Harlow Labour 0.29
6 Cheltenham Liberal Democrat 0.33
7 Croydon Central Labour 0.36
8 Portsmouth North Labour 0.38
9 Battersea Labour 0.41
10 Hove Labour 0.50

[edit] Liberal Democrat targets

Rank Constituency Winning party Swing to gain
1 Guildford Conservative 0.09
2 Solihull Conservative 0.12
3 Rochdale Labour 0.17
4 Oxford East Labour 0.37
5 Edinburgh South Labour 0.47
6 Hampstead and Kilburn Labour 0.57
7 Eastbourne Conservative 0.70
8 Islington South and Finsbury Labour 0.78
9 Watford Labour 1.17
10 Ealing Central and Acton Labour 1.37

[edit] Scottish National Party targets

Rank Constituency Winning party Swing to gain
1 Ochil and South Perthshire Labour 0.74
2 Dundee West Labour 7.29

[edit] Plaid Cymru targets

Rank Constituency Winning party Swing to gain
1 Ceredigion Liberal Democrat 0.31
2 Arfon Labour 0.91
3 Ynys Môn Labour 1.75

[edit] Northern Irish targets

Rank Constituency Winning party Challenging party Swing to gain
1 Belfast South Social Democratic and Labour Democratic Unionist 1.93
2 South Antrim Democratic Unionist Ulster Unionist 4.54
3 Fermanagh and South Tyrone Sinn Féin Democratic Unionist 4.70
4 Belfast South Social Democratic and Labour Ulster Unionist 4.80

[edit] Notes

  1. ^ "Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland" (PDF). http://www.boundarycommission.org.uk/pubs/finalrecommendations.pdf. 
  2. ^ "Final Northern Ireland boundary change recommendations". http://www.ark.ac.uk/elections/gboun07.htm. 
  3. ^ "Brown would 'renew' Labour Party". BBC News Online. 5 January 2007. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/6236315.stm. 
  4. ^ Whitehall prepares for hung parliament with Lib Dem talks The Guardian, 1 Jan 2009
  5. ^ "Salmond wants Westminster to 'dance to a Scottish jig' as he targets 20 seats". The Scotsman. 21 April 2008. http://news.scotsman.com/latestnews/Salmond-wants-Westminster-to-39dance.4001458.jp. 
  6. ^ UK Electoral Commission: UK Parliamentary general election
  7. ^ Technically, Parliament could vote to extend the lifetime of the current term beyond 5 years. This cannot be done by the House of Commons alone; it must be additionally approved by the House of Lords (the Parliament Acts 1911 and 1949 may not be utilised in this case) and by the Queen-in-Parliament. Since 1911, extension of the maximum term of Parliaments has only occurred during the First and Second World Wars.
  8. ^ a b "Research Paper 07/31: Election Timetables". House of Commons Library. http://www.parliament.uk/commons/lib/research/rp2007/rp07-031.pdf. 
  9. ^ "Election: How It Works — The General Election process". The Scotsman. 5 April 2005. http://election.scotsman.com/howitworks.cfm. 
  10. ^ "The most likely date for the next election is May 6th 2010 - Coffee House". The Spectator. 1 May 2009. http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3581436/the-most-likely-date-for-the-next-election-is-may-6th-2010.thtml. Retrieved 13 July 2009. 
  11. ^ "Labour 'warns of early election'". BBC News Online. 8 December 2006. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6220352.stm. 
  12. ^ Philip Webster (25 June 2007). "Election set for 2008". The Times. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article1811255.ece. 
  13. ^ "How election fever developed". BBC News Online. 6 October 2007. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7032099.stm. 
  14. ^ "Brown rules out autumn election". BBC News Online. 6 October 2007. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7031749.stm. 
  15. ^ "Tory marginals poll". News of the World. 6 October 2007. http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/notw_poll.pdf. 
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  82. ^ "Sarwar plans to stand down as MP". BBC News Online. 21 June 2007. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/glasgow_and_west/6228920.stm. 
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  93. ^ "Mark Todd Announces He Will Not Fight Next Election". Derby Evening Telegraph. 22 September 2007. http://www.thisisderbyshire.co.uk/displayNode.jsp?nodeId=124378&command=displayContent&sourceNode=231734&home=yes&more_nodeId1=124522&contentPK=18461376. 
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  98. ^ "Rudi Vis to stand down at next election". Hendon Times. 28 May 2007. http://www.hendontimes.co.uk/display.var.2300378.0.rudi_vis_to_stand_down_at_next_election.php. 
  99. ^ "Blair bids to preserve legacy with new MPs". Evening Standard. 23 October 2006. http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/article-23371776-details/Blair+bids+to+preserve+legacy+with+new+MPs/article.do. 
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  101. ^ "MP Wills will not stand for re-election". Swindon Advertiser. 14 September 2009-09-14. http://www.swindonadvertiser.co.uk/news/4626550.MP_Wills_will_not_stand_for_re_election/. 
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  104. ^ "Four Labour MPs Can't Stand In Next Election". Sky News. 2 June 2009. http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Politics/Cabinet-Office-Minister-Tom-Watson-Quits-As-Three-Other-Labour-MPs-Stand-Down/Article/200906115293412?f=rss. 
  105. ^ "Jim Devine becomes fifth Labour MP barred from standing at election". The Times. 16 June 2009. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6515328.ece. 
  106. ^ "Expenses row MP dropped by Labour". BBC News Online. 16 June 2009. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/8104140.stm. 
  107. ^ "Devine could trigger by-election". BBC News Online. 17 June 2009. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/8104525.stm.  - "Labour MP Jim Devine has warned he may force a by-election in his Livingston constituency after being deselected by the party over his expenses claims... Mr Devine said he was also considering staying on until the next election and then standing as an independent." - BBC News 17 June 2009
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  109. ^ "North East's only Tory MP retires". BBC News Online. 20 May 2008. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/tyne/7465036.stm. 
  110. ^ "Boswell set for farewell as Tory MP". Northampton Today. 31 March 2006. http://www.northamptontoday.co.uk/ViewArticle2.aspx?SectionID=255&ArticleID=1414532. 
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  112. ^ "Sir John to stand down at next election". Dorset Echo. 18 March 2008. http://www.thisisdorset.net/display.var.2127035.0.sir_john_to_stand_down_at_next_election.php. 
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  116. ^ "Wycombe MP: I quit". Bucks Free Press. 5 June 2009. http://www.bucksfreepress.co.uk/news/4421105.Wycombe_MP__I_quit/. 
  117. ^ "Ousted MP speaks out". Malton and Pickering Mercury. 28 November 2006. http://www.maltonmercury.co.uk/news/Ousted-MP-speaks-out.1901875.jp. 
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  119. ^ "Long-serving Tory MP stands down". BBC News Online. 12 October 2009. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8303278.stm. 
  120. ^ "Michael Howard stands down as MP". BBC News Online. 17 March 2006. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/4818832.stm. 
  121. ^ "Shock as MP Jack to quit seat". Blackpool Gazette. 15 March 2008. http://www.blackpoolgazette.co.uk/blackpoolnews/Shock-as-MP-Jack-to.3881603.jp. 
  122. ^ "Salisbury MP will not stand again". BBC News Online. 2 December 2009. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/wiltshire/8391330.stm. 
  123. ^ "Julie Kirkbride to stand down over expenses claims". Guardian Online. 28 May 2009. http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/may/28/julie-kirkbride-expenses-quitting. 
  124. ^ "Julie Kirkbride tells Bromsgrove Conservatives she wishes to be their candidate at the general election". ConservativeHome. 6 November 2009. http://conservativehome.blogs.com/goldlist/2009/11/julie-kirkbride-tells-bromsgrove-conservatives-she-wishes-to-be-their-candidate-at-the-general-elect.html. 
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  126. ^ "Expenses scandal MP to stand down". Bromley Times. 21 September 2009. http://www.bromleytimes.co.uk/content/bromley/times/news/story.aspx?brand=BMLYTonline&category=news&tBrand=northlondon24&tCategory=newsbmlyt&itemid=WeED21%20Sep%202009%2017%3A20%3A20%3A593. 
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  129. ^ "Tory MP Maclean to leave Commons". BBC News Online. 27 June 2009. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/8122470.stm. 
  130. ^ "Woking's MP to stand down at next election". Woking News & Mail. 16 March 2009. http://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/s/2047039_wokings_mp_to_stand_down_at_next_election. 
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  132. ^ "Fenland MP Malcolm Moss will stand down". Peterborough Evening Telegraph. 7 September 2007. http://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/Fenland-MP-Malcolm-Moss-will.3182451.jp. 
  133. ^ "Sir Michael gets ready to bow out". Worcester News. 24 March 2006. http://archive.worcesternews.co.uk/2006/3/24/404485.html. 
  134. ^ "Newmarket MP Richard Spring to stand down". Newmarket Journal. 23 November 2009. http://www.newmarketjournal.co.uk/news/Newmarket-MP-Richard-Spring-to.5848384.jp. 
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  136. ^ "Taylor to step down at election". BBC News Online. 16 June 2009. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/8103070.stm. 
  137. ^ "MP to step down over duck island". BBC News Online. 21 May 2009. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/hampshire/8060755.stm. 
  138. ^ "Ann Widdecombe set to stand down". BBC News Online. 7 October 2007. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/7032992.stm. 
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  141. ^ "Lib Dems' Barrett to quit as MP". BBC News Online. 25 July 2009. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/8168699.stm. 
  142. ^ "Colin Breed MP to stand down at next General Election". http://www.libdems.org.uk/news/colin-breed-mp-to-stand-down-at-next-general-election.13217.html. 
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  149. ^ "Paisley to step down as MP at next election". The Irish Times. 17 January 2008. http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2008/0117/1200515395774.html. 
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  152. ^ "Plaid MP Adam Price to stand down". BBC News Online. 18 September 2009. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/8263248.stm. 
  153. ^ "Tories urge Salmond to quit as MP". BBC News Online. 4 January 2008. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7171291.stm. 
  154. ^ "Clare Short: I'm standing down so I can speak the truth". The Independent. 14 September 2006. http://comment.independent.co.uk/commentators/article1575803.ece. 
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  156. ^ "The Parliamentary Constituencies and Assembly Electoral Regions (Wales) Order 2006 (S.I. 2006 No. 1041)". http://www.opsi.gov.uk/si/si2006/20061041.htm. 
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  158. ^ "The Parliamentary Constituencies (Northern Ireland) Order 2008 (S.I. 2008 No. 1486)". http://www.opsi.gov.uk/si/si2008/uksi_20081486_en_1. 
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  160. ^ UKPollingReport Election Guide, UK Polling Report, in association with YouGov

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