Andalusian parliamentary election, 2012

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Andalusian parliamentary election, 2012
Andalusia
2008 ←
25 March 2012
→ 2016

All 109 seats of the Parliament of Andalusia
55 seats needed for a majority
Turnout 60.8%
  First party Second party Third party
  Javier Arenas.JPG Reapertura Patio de los Leones de la Alhambra.jpg Diego Valderas.jpg
Leader Javier Arenas José Antonio Griñán Diego Valderas
Party PP PSOE IU
Leader since 18 April 2004 23 April 2009 2000
Leader's seat Almería Seville Huelva
Last election 47 seats, 38.5% 56 seats, 48.4% 6 seats, 7.1%
Seats won 50 47 12
Seat change Increase3 Decrease9 Increase6
Popular vote 1,570,833 1,527,923 438,372
Percentage 40.7% 39.6% 11.3%
Swing Increase2.2% Decrease8.8% Increase4.2%

Andalusian Parliament Elections 2012.svg

Province-level units won by PSOE (red) and PP (blue)

President before election

José Antonio Griñán
PSOE

Elected President

José Antonio Griñán
PSOE

An election to the Parliament of Andalusia was held in Andalusia in Spain on 25 March 2012. The elections were for all 109 seats of the Andalusian Parliament, determining the President of the Andalusia autonomous community. Despite predictions that the People's Party could win an absolute majority of seats for the first time ever, they failed to gain enough seats to do so. While the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party lost their overall majority of seats, they continued in power with the support of United Left, who increased their number of seats.[1]

Date[edit]

Several dates were shuffled for the electoral call. Initially scheduled most probably for the 4th[2] or 18 March, the result of the general election in November made it advisable for Griñán to push the date further away to the last Sunday of March, in order to hurry up the legislature and distance himself from the November electoral call.[3]

This will become the first time since 1996 that an Andalusian parliamentary election is not held concurrently with a Spanish general election, as then-PM José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero had chosen to hold the 2012 general election 4 months ahead of schedule, at 20 November 2011.

General election, 2011[edit]

The 2011 general elections resulted in a resounding victory for the opposition People's Party of Mariano Rajoy, who won in both seats and popular vote for the first time ever in this autonomous community since the Spanish transition to democracy. The PP won 1,982,091 votes (45.57%) and 33 seats to PSOE's 1,590,844 votes (36.57%) and 25 seats, who lost 800,000 votes and 11 seats from those won in 2008. United Left won 2 seats from Sevilla and Malaga and 8.26% of the share with 359,521 votes.

Results projections based on the results of the general election gave the People's Party an absolute majority with 58 seats (out of 109 up for election), with the PSOE in a distant second place with 43 seats. United Left on the projections would keep its 6 seats while UPyD could enter the Parliament with 2 seats. Had those results been confirmed, it would have meant the end of a 30 year-long hegemony of Socialist rule in the community: the party had won all elections ever since the creation of the Andalusian autonomous community.[4]

Opinion polls[edit]

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. However, if such date is unknown, the date of publication will be given instead. Seat projections are included below the % estimation where available. "–" denotes no individual figure.

55 seats needed for a majority
Polling Firm Date Link PSOE PP IU PA UPyD Others Lead
Election Results March 25, 2012 PDF 39.6%
47
40.7%
50
11.3%
12
2.5%
0
3.3%
0
2.6%
0
1.1%
Ipsos-Eco Consulting March 25, 2012 HTML 39.2%
45–48
42.0%
52–55
9.9%
8–10

0

0

0
2.8%
Exit polls
GAD3 March 19 HTML 38.1%
44–48
46.7%
55–58
8.1%
7–9
2.1%
0
2.7%
0
2.3%
0
8.6%
Sigma Dos March 12–15 HTML 36.0%
43–44
45.8%
54–57
8.9%
7–9
2.9%
0–1
3.8%
1–2
2.6%
0
9.8%
Metroscopia March 6–15 HTML 34.4%
41
47.3%
59
8.8%
9
2.7%
0
3.2%
0
3.6%
0
12.9%
NC Report[a] March 1–15 HTML 35.7%
42–43
45.5%
55–57
9.2%
7–9

0–1
4.2%
0–2

0
9.8%
Opinión 2000 March 12–13 PDF 36.0% 46.7% 8.8% 2.8% 4.1% 1.6% 10.7%
IMC[a] March 7–12 HTML 35.2%
43
46.5%
58
8.6%
6
1.8%
0
4.6%
2
3.3%
0
11.3%
Low-Cost March 5–12 HTML 37.2%
44
45.2%
57
8.5%
7

0

1

0
8.0%
GAD3 March 5–8 HTML 36.8%
42–45
46.2%
56–58
9.2%
7–10
2.4%
0
2.9%
0–1
2.5%
0
9.4%
NC Report[a] February 20–March 6 HTML 35.3%
41–44
45.2%
55–57
9.8%
8–9

0–1
4.3%
0–2

0
9.9%
Joly February 13–29 HTML 36.9%
44–47
45.2%
54–57
8.4%
7–8
2.3%
0
3.7%
1
3.5%
0
8.3%
CIS February 15–27 HTML 37.7%
44–46
44.9%
54–55
9.8%
9–10
2.6%
0
2.6%
0
2.4%
0
7.2%
Sigma Dos February 22–24 HTML 36.3%
42–44
45.0%
54–57
9.3%
8–9
2.4%
0–1
4.2%
1–2
2.8%
0
8.7%
GESPA February 6–22 PDF 37.2%
43–44
46.7%
56–58
7.6%
6–7
2.2%
0
3.9%
2
2.4%
0
9.5%
IMC[a] February 8–16 HTML 35.8%
43
45.8%
59
8.1%
6
2.2%
0
4.3%
1
3.8%
0
10.0%
Nexo February 1–14 PDF 37.6%
46–47
45.1%
53–57
7.5%
6–8
2.8%
0–1
3.3%
0–1
3.7%
0
7.5%
NC Report[a] February 1–13 HTML 33.8%
41
46.9%
57

9

1

1

0
13.1%
NC Report[a] January 30 HTML 35.2%
44
46.4%
55
8.8%
8
2.9%
1
3.8%
1
2.9%
0
11.2%
IMC[a] January 16–24 HTML 34.8% 46.6% 8.4% 2.1% 4.6% 3.5% 11.8%
2012
CADPEA December 1–30 PDF 37.6% 47.0% 6.3% 2.0% 3.0% 4.1% 9.4%
General Election
(seat extrapolation)
November 20, 2011 HTML 36.6%
(43)
45.6%
(58)
8.3%
(6)
1.8%
(0)
4.8%
(2)
2.9%
(0)
9.0%
Joly October 18–24 PDF 34.8% 49.4% 8.4% 2.0% 14.6%
IESA September 26–October 21 PDF 36.0% 46.4% 8.1% 2.8% 3.2% 3.5% 10.4%
CADPEA June 6–July 11 PDF 34.3% 48.9% 8.3% 2.4% 1.4% 4.7% 14.6%
Local Elections May 22, 2011 HTML 32.5% 39.4% 12.0% 5.7% 1.8% 8.6% 6.9%
Sigma Dos April 12–15 HTML 36.8%
43–46
48.0%
56–60
7.8%
6–7

0

0

0
11.2%
Metroscopia February 28 HTML 35.2%
45
47.5%
57
8.4%
7

0

0

0
12.3%
IMC February 10–20 HTML 37.8%
45
44.8%
57
7.5%
7
2.3%
0

0

0
7.0%
Joly February 9–16 HTML 36.9% 47.1% 8.5% 2.9% 10.2%
GESPA February 1–4 PDF 37.0%
45
46.1%
56–57
7.8%
7–8
9.1%
Nexo January 18–February 2 PDF 39.7% 46.2% 7.6% 3.2% 6.5%
NC Report[a] January 22 HTML 38.7%
46–47
45.7%
53–54

9
7.0%
2011
Sigma Dos December 20–23 HTML 36.4%
41–46
49.3%
56–64
7.2%
4–7

0

0

0
12.9%
CADPEA November 24–December 22 PDF 36.2% 45.4% 8.2% 2.3% 1.4% 6.5% 9.2%
IESA October 18–November 18 PDF 37.7% 46.8% 8.2% 2.9% 1.7% 2.7% 9.1%
Joly November 7 HTML 39.1% 46.2% 7.0% 2.7% 2.1% 2.9% 7.1%
GESPA September 20–26 PDF 38.2%
45–46
45.5%
56–57
7.6%
7
2.5%
0
1.7%
0
4.5%
0
7.3%
CADPEA June 7–July 6 PDF 38.0% 45.1% 8.1% 2.1% 1.5% 5.2% 7.1%
Joly June 10–15 HTML 38.1% 45.4% 8.5% 2.5% 1.5% 4.0% 7.3%
IMC June 8–12 HTML 38.3%
46
43.8%
56
7.5%
7
2.3%
0

0

0
5.5%
Joly March 3 HTML 42.9% 42.5% 7.5% 2.5% 2.0% 2.6% 0.4%
Sigma Dos March 1 HTML 41.8% 45.7% 6.2% 1.4% 1.6% 3.3% 3.9%
Metroscopia February 28 HTML 41.0%
49
43.3%
54
7.2%
6

0

0

0
2.3%
PULSO February 20 HTML 41.8% 41.1% 6.4% 2.4% 2.6% 5.7% 0.7%
IMC[a] January 25–February 12 HTML 40.4%
51
42.4%
52
7.1%
6
2.1%
0

0

0
2.0%
CADPEA January 7–29 PDF 43.2% 41.9% 7.1% 2.8% 1.4% 3.6% 1.3%
Nexo January 20–28 PDF 41.3% 41.9% 6.9% 3.9% 0.6%
IESA January 15 PDF 41.6% 43.2% 7.1% 2.4% 1.8% 3.9% 1.6%
2010
Joly September 23–October 2 HTML 42.7% 42.2% 7.1% 2.4% 2.6% 3.0% 0.5%
CADPEA June 9–July 9 PDF 46.2% 39.7% 6.7% 2.6% 6.5%
Joly June 28 HTML 45.6% 39.1% 7.5% 2.7% 2.4% 2.7% 6.5%
PULSO May 25–June 19 HTML 48.6% 40.2% 6.2% 1.8% 8.4%
European Election
(seat extrapolation)
June 7, 2009 HTML 48.2%
(58)
39.7%
(48)
5.2%
(3)
1.0%
(0)
2.5%
(0)
3.4%
(0)
8.5%
Joly February 28 HTML 46.2% 39.1% 7.5% 2.8% 1.2% 2.9% 7.1%
Metroscopia February 28 HTML 44.3%
53–55
43.2%
49–50
6.6%
5–6
2.9%
0

0

0
1.1%
Sigma Dos February 19–23 HTML 46.8% 40.5% 7.2% 2.3% 6.3%
IMC[a] February 5–9 HTML 45.3%
54
42.1%
49
6.8%
6
1.9%
0

0

0
3.2%
2009
IAC December 9–19 HTML 44.7%
52
43.1%
51
7.6%
6
1.5%
0

0

0
1.6%
CADPEA November 14–December 12 PDF 46.2% 38.8% 7.5% 2.2% 7.4%
IESA November 10–December 5 HTML 47.0% 40.8% 6.2% 2.5% 6.2%
Joly October 19 HTML 46.5% 39.6% 7.3% 2.2% 1.2% 3.2% 6.9%
CADPEA June 4–28 PDF 46.7% 38.1% 7.9% 2.0% 8.6%
General Election
(seat extrapolation)
March 9, 2008 HTML 51.9%
(61)
38.2%
(47)
5.1%
(1)
1.5%
(0)
0.9%
(0)
2.4%
(0)
13.7%
Election Results March 9, 2008 PDF 48.4%
56
38.5%
47
7.1%
6
2.8%
0
0.6%
0
2.6%
0
9.9%
Notes
  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j This survey shows its poll results projected over candidacy votes (that is, votes going for political parties, excluding blank ballots). The vote percentage in the official election is calculated including blank ballots into the estimation. In order to obtain data comparable to both the official results as well as those of other surveys, a rule of three has been applied to the survey projections, with the results of the calculation being shown instead.

Results[edit]

Summary of the 25 March 2012 Andalusian Parliament election results
Parties and coalitions Votes Seats
#  % Swing Seats +/−
People's Party PP 1,570,833 40.67 +2.22 50 +3
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party PSOE 1,527,923 39.56 −8.85 47 −9
United Left-The Greens IU-LV 438,372 11.35 +4.29 12 +6
Union, Progress and Democracy UPyD 129,407 3.35 +2.73 0 ±0
Andalusian Party PA 96,770 2.51 −0.25 0 ±0
Others 64,361 1.67 0 ±0
Blank ballots 35,081 0.91 −0.15
Total 3,862,747 100.00 109 ±0
Valid votes 3,862,747 99.42 +0.05
Invalid votes 22,390 0.58 −0.05
Votes cast / turnout 3,885,137 60.78 −11.89
Abstentions 2,507,483 39.22 +11.89
Registered voters 6,392,620
Source: ARGOS
Popular vote
PP
  
40.67%
PSOE-A
  
39.56%
IULV-CA
  
11.35%
UPyD
  
3.35%
PA
  
2.51%
Others
  
1.67%
Parliamentary seats
PP
  
45.87%
PSOE-A
  
43.12%
IULV-CA
  
11.01%

References[edit]

  1. ^ La izquierda vence en Andalucía, El Pais, 25 March 2012
  2. ^ "Las elecciones andaluzas serán el 4 de marzo de 2012" (in Spanish). El País. Retrieved 2012-01-21. 
  3. ^ "Las elecciones en Andalucía serán el 25 de marzo" (in Spanish). Público. Retrieved 2012-01-21. 
  4. ^ "El PP se haría con la Junta de Andalucía con los resultados de las generales" (in Spanish). Libertad Digital.com. Retrieved 2012-01-21.