Andalusian parliamentary election, 2012

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Andalusian parliamentary election, 2012
Andalusia
2008 ←
25 March 2012 → 2016

All 109 seats of the Parliament of Andalusia
55 seats needed for a majority
Turnout 3,885,137 (60.8%)
Decrease11.9 pp
  First party Second party Third party
  Javier Arenas.JPG José Antonio Griñán.jpg Diego Valderas 14.05.20-Vicepresidente y Portavoz (cropped).jpg
Leader Javier Arenas José Antonio Griñán Diego Valderas
Party PP PSOE IU
Leader since 18 April 2004 23 April 2009 2000
Last election 47 seats, 38.5% 56 seats, 48.4% 6 seats, 7.1%
Seats won
50 / 109
47 / 109
12 / 109
Seat change Increase3 Decrease9 Increase6
Popular vote 1,570,833 1,527,923 438,372
Percentage 40.7% 39.6% 11.3%
Swing Increase2.2 pp Decrease8.8 pp Increase4.2 pp

Andalusian Parliament Elections 2012.svg

Province-level units won by PSOE (red) and PP (blue)

President before election

José Antonio Griñán
PSOE

Elected President

José Antonio Griñán
PSOE

An election to the Parliament of Andalusia was held in Andalusia in Spain on 25 March 2012. The elections were for all 109 seats of the Andalusian Parliament, determining the President of the Andalusia autonomous community. Despite predictions that the People's Party could win an absolute majority of seats for the first time ever, they failed to gain enough seats to do so. While the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party lost their overall majority of seats, they continued in power with the support of United Left, who increased their number of seats.[1]

Date[edit]

Several dates were shuffled for the electoral call. Initially scheduled most probably for the 4th[2] or 18 March, the result of the general election in November made it advisable for Griñán to push the date further away to the last Sunday of March, in order to hurry up the legislature and distance himself from the November electoral call.[3]

This will become the first time since 1996 that an Andalusian parliamentary election is not held concurrently with a Spanish general election, as then-PM José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero had chosen to hold the 2012 general election 4 months ahead of schedule, at 20 November 2011.

General election, 2011[edit]

The 2011 general elections resulted in a resounding victory for the opposition People's Party of Mariano Rajoy, who won in both seats and popular vote for the first time ever in this autonomous community since the Spanish transition to democracy. The PP won 1,982,091 votes (45.57%) and 33 seats to PSOE's 1,590,844 votes (36.57%) and 25 seats, who lost 800,000 votes and 11 seats from those won in 2008. United Left won 2 seats from Sevilla and Malaga and 8.26% of the share with 359,521 votes.

Results projections based on the results of the general election gave the People's Party an absolute majority with 58 seats (out of 109 up for election), with the PSOE in a distant second place with 43 seats. United Left on the projections would keep its 6 seats while UPyD could enter the Parliament with 2 seats. Had those results been confirmed, it would have meant the end of a 30 year-long hegemony of Socialist rule in the community: the party had won all elections ever since the creation of the Andalusian autonomous community.[4]

Opinion polls[edit]

Poll results[edit]

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. However, if such date is unknown, the date of publication will be given instead.

Date Polling Firm PSOE PP IU PA UPyD Others Lead
25 Mar 2012 Regional Election 39.6 40.7 11.3 2.5 3.4 2.6 1.1
25 Mar Ipsos-Eco Consulting 39.2 42.0 9.9 8.9 2.8
Exit polls
19 Mar GAD3 38.1 46.7 8.1 2.1 2.7 2.3 8.6
12–15 Mar Sigma-2 36.0 45.8 8.9 2.9 3.8 2.6 9.8
6–15 Mar Metroscopia 34.4 47.3 8.8 2.7 3.2 3.6 12.9
1–15 Mar NC Report[a] 35.7 45.5 9.2 4.2 5.4 9.8
12–13 Mar Opinión 2000 36.0 46.7 8.8 2.8 4.1 1.6 10.7
7–12 Mar IMC[a] 35.2 46.5 8.6 1.8 4.6 3.3 11.3
5–12 Mar Low-Cost 37.2 45.2 8.5 9.1 8.0
5–8 Mar GAD3 36.8 46.2 9.2 2.4 2.9 2.5 9.4
20 Feb–6 Mar NC Report[a] 35.3 45.2 9.8 4.3 5.4 9.9
13–29 Feb Joly 36.9 45.2 8.4 2.3 3.7 3.5 8.3
15–27 Feb CIS 37.7 44.9 9.8 2.6 2.6 2.4 7.2
22–24 Feb Sigma-2 36.3 45.0 9.3 2.4 4.2 2.8 8.7
6–22 Feb GESPA 37.2 46.7 7.6 2.2 3.9 2.4 9.5
8–16 Feb IMC[a] 35.8 45.8 8.1 2.2 4.3 3.8 10.0
1–14 Feb Nexo 37.6 45.1 7.5 2.8 3.3 3.7 7.5
1–13 Feb NC Report[a] 33.8 46.9 19.3 13.1
30 Jan NC Report[a] 35.2 46.4 8.8 2.9 3.8 2.9 11.2
16–24 Jan IMC[a] 34.8 46.6 8.4 2.1 4.6 3.5 11.8
2012
1–30 Dec CADPEA 37.6 47.0 6.3 2.0 3.0 4.1 9.4
20 Nov 2011 General Election 36.6 45.6 8.3 1.8 4.8 2.9 9.0
18–24 Oct Joly 34.8 49.4 8.4 2.0 5.4 14.6
26 Sep–21 Oct IESA 36.0 46.4 8.1 2.8 3.2 3.5 10.4
6 Jun–11 Jul CADPEA 34.3 48.9 8.3 2.4 1.4 4.7 14.6
12–15 Apr Sigma-2 36.8 48.0 7.8 7.4 11.2
28 Feb Metroscopia 35.2 47.5 8.4 8.9 12.3
10–20 Feb IMC 37.8 44.8 7.5 2.3 7.6 7.0
9–16 Feb Joly 36.9 47.1 8.5 2.9 4.6 10.2
1–4 Feb GESPA 37.0 46.1 7.8 9.1 9.1
18 Jan–2 Feb Nexo 39.7 46.2 7.6 3.2 3.3 6.5
22 Jan NC Report[a] 38.7 45.7 15.6 7.0
2011
20–23 Dec Sigma-2 36.4 49.3 7.2 7.1 12.9
24 Nov–22 Dec CADPEA 36.2 45.4 8.2 2.3 1.4 6.5 9.2
18 Oct–18 Nov IESA 37.7 46.8 8.2 2.9 1.7 2.7 9.1
7 Nov Joly 39.1 46.2 7.0 2.7 2.1 2.9 7.1
20–26 Sep GESPA 38.2 45.5 7.6 2.5 1.7 4.5 7.3
6 Jun–6 Jul CADPEA 38.0 45.1 8.1 2.1 1.5 5.2 7.1
10–15 Jun Joly 38.1 45.4 8.5 2.5 1.5 4.0 7.3
8–12 Jun IMC 38.3 43.8 7.5 2.3 8.1 5.5
3 Mar Joly 42.9 42.5 7.5 2.5 2.0 2.6 0.4
1 Mar Sigma-2 41.8 45.7 6.2 1.4 1.6 3.3 3.9
28 Feb Metroscopia 41.0 43.3 7.2 8.5 2.3
20 Feb PULSO 41.8 41.1 6.4 2.4 2.6 5.7 0.7
25 Jan–12 Feb IMC[a] 40.4 42.4 7.1 2.1 8.0 2.0
7–29 Jan CADPEA 43.2 41.9 7.1 2.8 1.4 3.6 1.3
20–28 Jan Nexo 41.3 41.9 6.9 3.9 6.0 0.6
15 Jan IESA 41.6 43.2 7.1 2.4 1.8 3.9 1.6
2010
23 Sep–2 Oct Joly 42.7 42.2 7.1 2.4 2.6 3.0 0.5
9 Jun–9 Jul CADPEA 46.2 39.7 6.7 2.6 4.8 6.5
28 Jun Joly 45.6 39.1 7.5 2.7 2.4 2.7 6.5
25 May–19 Jun PULSO 48.6 40.2 6.2 1.8 3.2 8.4
7 Jun 2009 EP Election 48.2 39.7 5.2 1.0 2.5 3.4 8.5
28 Feb Joly 46.2 39.1 7.5 2.8 1.2 2.9 7.1
28 Feb Metroscopia 44.3 43.2 6.6 2.9 3.0 1.1
19–23 Feb Sigma-2 46.8 40.5 7.2 2.3 3.2 6.3
5–9 Feb IMC[a] 45.3 42.1 6.8 1.9 3.9 3.2
2009
9–19 Dec IAC 44.7 43.1 7.6 1.5 3.1 1.6
14 Nov–12 Dec CADPEA 46.2 38.8 7.5 2.2 5.3 7.4
10 Nov–5 Dec IESA 47.0 40.8 6.2 2.5 3.5 6.2
19 Oct Joly 46.5 39.6 7.3 2.2 1.2 3.2 6.9
4–28 Jun CADPEA 46.7 38.1 7.9 2.0 5.3 8.6
9 Mar 2008 Regional Election 48.4 38.5 7.1 2.8 0.6 2.6 9.9

Seats[edit]

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 55 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Andalusia.

Date Polling Firm PSOE PP IU PA UPyD Others
25 Mar 2012 Regional Election 47 50 12 0 0 0
25 Mar Ipsos-Eco Consulting 45/48 52/55 8/10 0 0 0
Exit polls
19 Mar GAD3 44/48 55/58 7/9 0 0 0
12–15 Mar Sigma-2 43/44 54/57 7/9 0/1 1/2 0
6–15 Mar Metroscopia 41 59 9 0 0 0
1–15 Mar NC Report 42/43 55/57 7/9 0/1 0/2 0
7–12 Mar IMC 43 58 6 0 2 0
5–12 Mar Low-Cost 44 57 7 0 1 0
5–8 Mar GAD3 42/45 56/58 7/10 0 0/1 0
20 Feb–6 Mar NC Report 41/44 55/57 8/9 0/1 0/2 0
13–29 Feb Joly 44/47 54/57 7/8 0 1 0
15–27 Feb CIS 44/46 54/55 9/10 0 0 0
22–24 Feb Sigma-2 42/44 54/57 8/9 0/1 1/2 0
6–22 Feb GESPA 43/44 56/58 6/7 0 2 0
8–16 Feb IMC 43 59 6 0 1 0
1–14 Feb Nexo 46/47 53/57 6/8 0/1 0/1 0
1–13 Feb NC Report 41 57 9 1 1 0
30 Jan NC Report 44 55 8 1 1 0
2012
20 Nov 2011 General Election (extr.) (43) (58) (6) (0) (2) (0)
12–15 Apr Sigma-2 43/46 56/60 6/7 0 0 0
28 Feb Metroscopia 45 57 7 0 0 0
10–20 Feb IMC 45 57 7 0 0 0
1–4 Feb GESPA 45 56/57 7/8 0 0 0
22 Jan NC Report 46/47 53/54 9 0 0 0
2011
20–23 Dec Sigma-2 41/46 56/64 4/7 0 0 0
20–26 Sep GESPA 45/46 56/57 7 0 0 0
8–12 Jun IMC 46 56 7 0 0 0
28 Feb Metroscopia 49 54 6 0 0 0
25 Jan–12 Feb IMC 51 52 6 0 0 0
2010
7 Jun 2009 EP Election (extr.) (58) (48) (3) (0) (0) (0)
2 Feb Metroscopia 53/55 49/50 5/6 0 0 0
5–9 Feb IMC 54 49 6 0 0 0
2009
9–19 Dec IAC 52 51 6 0 0 0
9 Mar 2008 Regional Election 56 47 6 0 0 0

Results[edit]

Summary of the 25 March 2012 Andalusian Parliament election results
Party Vote Seats
Votes  % ±pp Won +/−
People's Party (PP) 1,570,833 40.67 +2.22 50 +3
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) 1,527,923 39.56 −8.85 47 −9
United Left-The Greens (IU-LV) 438,372 11.35 +4.29 12 +6
Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) 129,407 3.35 +2.73 0 ±0
Andalusian Party (PA) 96,770 2.51 −0.25 0 ±0
EQUO (EQUO) 20,383 0.53 New 0 ±0
Animal Rights Party (PACMA) 8,781 0.23 New 0 ±0
Blank Seats (Eb) 5,660 0.15 New 0 ±0
Jaded.org (Hartos.org) 4,966 0.13 New 0 ±0
Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE) 4,119 0.11 +0.05 0 ±0
Blank ballots 35,081 0.91 −0.15
Total 3,862,747 100.00 350 ±0
Valid votes 3,862,747 99.42 +0.05
Invalid votes 22,390 0.58 −0.05
Votes cast / turnout 3,885,137 60.78 −11.89
Abstentions 2,507,483 31.06 +11.89
Registered voters 6,392,620
Source: Argos Information Portal
Popular vote
PP
  
40.67%
PSOE
  
39.56%
IU-LV
  
11.35%
UPyD
  
3.35%
PA
  
2.51%
Others
  
1.67%
Blank
  
0.91%
Parliamentary seats
PP
  
45.87%
PSOE
  
43.12%
IU-LV
  
11.01%

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j This survey shows its poll results projected over candidacy votes (that is, votes going for political parties, excluding blank ballots). The vote percentage in the official election is calculated including blank ballots into the estimation. In order to obtain data comparable to both the official results as well as those of other surveys, a rule of three has been applied to the survey projections, with the results of the calculation being shown instead.

References[edit]

  1. ^ La izquierda vence en Andalucía, El Pais, 25 March 2012
  2. ^ "Las elecciones andaluzas serán el 4 de marzo de 2012" (in Spanish). El País. Retrieved 2012-01-21. 
  3. ^ "Las elecciones en Andalucía serán el 25 de marzo" (in Spanish). Público. Retrieved 2012-01-21. 
  4. ^ "El PP se haría con la Junta de Andalucía con los resultados de las generales" (in Spanish). Libertad Digital.com. Retrieved 2012-01-21.