Appeal to probability

An appeal to probability is a justification based on probability, sometimes regarded as a logical fallacy,^{[citation needed]} when an unwarranted assumption that something will happen, because it can happen, or when the odds of an occurrence are unrealistically played down in lieu of appropriate precaution.

Examples

Some examples are:

"It doesn't matter if I get myself into debt. If I play the lottery enough, I will win the jackpot, and then I can pay off all my debts."

This argument assumes a best-case scenario, however problem gambling is an urge to gamble despite negative consequences or the desire to stop and is often defined by the harm suffered as opposed to the gambling. The fallacy is that because the chance of winning the lottery is not zero that, given enough time, the gambler will eventually win. This logic is often combined with gambler's fallacy.

"Van Gogh was an artistic genius, and yet he died penniless. I am a penniless artist, therefore I am a genius."

This weak analogy, the so-called Van Gogh fallacy, assumes that because P was Q, and I am P, therefore I am Q, when this is not necessarily the case, and is a propositional fallacy known as affirming the consequent.

See also

• Murphy's law
• Infinite monkey theorem, a mathematically rigorous probabilistic statement
• Compare with: Axiom S5

References