Appeal to probability

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An appeal to probability (or appeal to possibility) is the logical fallacy of taking something for granted because it would probably be the case (or might possibly be the case).[1] Inductive arguments lack deductive validity and must therefore be asserted or denied in the premises.

Example[edit]

A fallacious appeal to possibility:

Something can go wrong (premise).
Therefore, something will go wrong (invalid conclusion).

A deductively valid argument would be explicitly premised on Murphy's law, (see also, modal logic).

Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong (premise 1).
Something can go wrong (premise 2).
Therefore, something will go wrong (valid conclusion).

References[edit]

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