Argentine general election, 2015

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Argentine presidential election, 2015
Argentina
2011 ←
25 October 2015 → 2019

  Sergio Massa.jpg
Nominee TBD TBD Sergio Massa
Party FPV-PJ UNEN FR-PJ
Home state TBD TBD Buenos Aires Province
Running mate TBD TBD TBD

  José Manuel de la Sota 2011-06-08.jpg Adolfo Rodriguez Saá-2.JPG
Nominee TBD José Manuel de la Sota Adolfo Rodríguez Saá
Party PRO CDP-PJ FP-PJ
Home state TBD Córdoba San Luis
Running mate TBD TBD TBD

Blank Argentina Map.svg


President before election

Cristina Fernández de Kirchner
FPV-PJ

Elected President

TBD

Coat of arms of Argentina.svg
This article is part of a series on the
politics and government of
Argentina

General elections will be held in Argentina on 25 October 2015, with a second round on 24 November if required,[1] and primary elections on 9 August. The previous presidential elections were held on 23 October 2011, whilst the last legislative elections were held in 2013.[2]

Context[edit]

President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner was re-elected in 2011. As the Constitution of Argentina does not allow more than two consecutives term in a row, several politicians from the Front for Victory (FFV) proposed an amendment of the constitution to allow unlimited re-elections. This proposal was heavily resisted by the opposition parties, and the FFV could not reach the required two-thirds majority in the Congress. The severe defeat in the 2013 elections ceased the projects for an amendment.

With Cristina Kirchner unable to run, three candidates lead the opinion polls: Daniel Scioli, Sergio Massa and Mauricio Macri. Daniel Scioli, governor of the Buenos Aires province, runs for the FFV, but he is resisted by factions of the party that prefer the more aggresive style of Cristina Kirchner. Other members of the Kirchner regime, such as Florencio Randazzo, announced to run against Scioli in the primary elections of the party. Sergio Massa, a former Kirchnerite chief of cabinet, won the 2013 elections with the Renewal Front and has a huge support in the populous Buenos Aires province. Mauricio Macri, from the Republican Proposal, is the mayor of the Buenos Aires city. The Broad Front UNEN was a coalition of smaller parties that sought to be the fourth electoral force, but disbanded before the election. Elisa Carrió left it join Macri, and an internal congress of the Radical Civic Union decided to do so as well.

Potential presidential candidates[edit]

The following galleries feature individuals who have been the subject of media speculation as being possible candidates in the 2015 presidential election.

Front for Victory / Justicialist Party[edit]

Candidate Running mate
Daniel Scioli en la UNLP.jpg
Daniel Scioli[3]
TBD
Urribarri.png
Sergio Urribarri[4]
TBD
Aníbal Fernández (2011).jpg
Aníbal Fernández[5]
TBD
Randazzo2.jpg
Florencio Randazzo[6]
TBD
Julián Domínguez (2010).jpg
Julián Domínguez[7]
TBD
Juan Manuel Urtubey -presidenciagovar-13NOV07.jpg
Juan Manuel Urtubey[8]
TBD
51a7e0a30ea82 662x441 (1).jpg
Agustín Rossi[9]
TBD
Taiana4.jpg
Jorge Taiana[10]
TBD

Broad Front UNEN / Progressive, Civic and Social Front[edit]

Candidate Running mate
Margarita Stolbizer.png
Margarita Stolbizer[11]
TBD
Fernando Pino Solanas.jpg
Fernando Solanas[12]
TBD

Renewal Front (Justicialist Party dissidents)[edit]

Candidate Running mate
Sergio Massa.jpg
Sergio Massa[13]
TBD

Christian Democratic Party (Justicialist Party dissidents)[edit]

Candidate Running mate
José Manuel de la Sota 2011-06-08.jpg
José Manuel de la Sota[14]
TBD

Federal Peronism (Justicialist Party dissidents)[edit]

Candidate Running mate
Adolfo Rodriguez Saá-2.JPG
Adolfo Rodríguez Saá[15]
TBD

Republican Proposal (PRO) / Radical Civic Union[edit]

Candidate Running mate
Mauricio Macri Foto de Prensa2.jpg
Mauricio Macri[16]
TBD
Elisa Carrió - Unen.png
Elisa Carrió[17]
TBD
Sanz 2.jpg
Ernesto Sanz[18]
TBD

Workers' Left Front[edit]

Candidate Running mate
Jorge Altamira plaza de mayo.jpg
Jorge Altamira[19]
TBD
Nicolás Del Caño.jpg
Nicolás del Caño[20]
TBD

Popular Unity[edit]

Candidate Running mate
Víctor De Gennaro.jpg
Víctor De Gennaro[21]
TBD

Workers' Socialist Movement[edit]

Candidate Running mate
Alejandro Bodart - Denunciarán a Sapag por actividad de Chevron en El Trapial.jpg
Alejandro Bodart[22]
Vilma Ripoll.jpg
Vilma Ripoll[23]

Opinion polling[edit]

July 2014[edit]

Polling conducted by González/Valladares/MGMR for Perfil on the 27th of July 2014 has dissident Peronist Massa leading with 28,6%, followed closely by Kirchnerist Scioli (23,9%) and conservative Macri (23,4%). Former vice-president Cobos comes in as distant fourth, as hypothetical UNEN-candidate with 17,3%.[24]

August 2014[edit]

Another poll conducted by Poliarquia for La Nacion in August had the three top candidates virtually tied, with Scioli at 22%, and Massa and Macri at 21%. [25]

September 2014[edit]

  • Polling conducted by Aragón & Asociados in September showed a lead for Sergio Massa with 28,81% of the votes, followed by a tie between Daniel Scioli and Mauricio Macri with 23,67% and 23,64% of the votes respectively. On the fourth place appears Hermes Binner with 13,34% of total votes. [28]

December 2014[edit]

  • A new poll conducted by Raúl Aragón & Asociados predicted first-round results of 26,1% for Sergio Massa, 24,8% for Daniel Scioli and 21,3% for Mauricio Macri. [29]
  • Management & Fit, which were the first to predict a three-way tie in the winter of 2014, they now see Scioli at 24,7%, Macri at 23,7% and Massa at 17,2%. [30]
  • The consulting firm OPSM published two polls. The results for the first poll were Scioli with 26,0%, Massa with 22,7%, Macri with 21,2% and Hermes Binner, as UNEN candidate, with 11,2%. The second in which the UNEN-alliance fractures and doesn't present a unique candidate would have Scioli at 26,7%, Macri at 24,8% and Massa at 20,4%. [31]
  • Polling conducted by IPSOS, shows a widely different scenario, predicting 31% for Massa, 30% for Scioli, 22% for Macri and 4% for Julio Cobos as UNEN representative. [32]

February 2015[edit]

  • Polling conducted by Management & Fit for the first time have Mauricio Macri leading the race at 27,9%, ahead of kirchnerist Scioli with 23,6% and dissident Peronist Massa at only 18,8%. This is a remarkable change according to the pollsters as in early 2014 Macri only counted with the support of 10% of interviewees. The interviews were conducted in late January/early February, before the public marches in support of late attorney Alberto Nisman, which experts agree have benefitted Macri. The same poll also revealed UNEN candidates Cobos and Binner at 6,5% and 5,3% respectively, and FIT candidate Jorge Altamira at 2%.[33]
  • Another poll by Poliarquía also sees Macri in the lead with 28%, followed closely by the current government's candidate Scioli at 26% and at a slightly greater distance by Mass with 24%. The firm underlines the great results for opposition politician Macri, as he more than doubles his voting intention in the past year, rising from 12% to today's 28%. Scioli also saw a rise from 21%, whereas Massa remained constant at around 23/24%.[34]

March 2015[edit]

  • According to Opinión Pública Servicios y Mercados for Crónica Mauricio Macri and Daniel Scioli would face in the second round runoff vote, getting 33,1% and 28,0% of votes in the first round respectively. Once promising candidate Sergio Massa sees himself relegated to a distant third place with a mere 16,2%. Potential UCR candidate Julio Cobos can hope for 10,6% of the electorate. [35]
  • In four polls published at the end of March results varied greatly:
    • Numbers released by Polldata have Macri first at 26,4%, followed closely by Massa (24,2%) and Scioli (23,1%), further Socialist Party candidate Margarita Stolbizer could count on 5,1% of votes and perennial Worker's Front candidate Jorge Altamira receives 3,3%; 6,7% of interviewees have pronounced themselves for another candidate, whereas the remaining 11,2% are undecided.
    • Pollsters Management & Fit see a tight race between government candidate Scioli at 29,5% and Buenos Aires mayor Macri at 28,8%, relegating Massa to a distant third place with 14,3%, followed by Stolbizer with 4% and Altamira with 3%.
    • According to Giacobbe & Asociados opposition candidate Macri leads the race with a great margin, standing at 31,2%, where Scioli can count on only 19%, Massa on 15,4%, former Socialist candidate Binner on 4,5% and leftist Altamira on 3%. 10,4% of the surveyed chose another candidate, whereas 16,5% did not know whom they will vote for.
    • Lastly Poliarquía sees the lead inverted, estimating support for Scioli at 31%, Macri coming in second with 25%, followed by Massa at 21%, Cobos as UNEN candidate with 7% (although Cobos has since pulled out of the race, due to his party voting to ally itself with Macri's PRO) and Altamira at 3%; 10% of respondents have yet to decide whom they will vote for. [36]

April 2015[edit]

A poll conducted in early April 2015 by Consulting firm Poliarquía sees FPV-candidate Scioli leading the race with 33,4%, second comes Macri at 27,3%, again followed by Massa at 20,1%. Other candidates are Socialist candidate Margarita Stolbizer at 6,4% and Communist candidate Altamira at 2,3%.

Congressional elections[edit]

Argentine Senate election, 2015
Argentina
2013 ←
25 October 2015 → 2017

  Majority party Minority party Third party
  M. Pichetto.jpg No image.png
Leader Miguel Ángel Pichetto Luis Petcoff Naidenoff TBD
Party FPV-PJ UNEN FP-PJ
Leader since 2001 2011 2015
Leader's seat Río Negro Formosa TBD
Seats before 39
at stake: 8
21
at stake: 14
5
at stake: 2

  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
  Gabriela Michetti 2.jpg RobertoGustavoBasualdo.jpg
Leader Gabriela Michetti Roberto Basualdo TBD
Party PRO FR-PJ CDP-PJ
Leader since 2013 2013 2015
Leader's seat City of Buenos Aires San Juan TBD
Seats before 3
at stake: 0
1
at stake: 0
none

Blank Argentina Map.svg


Senate Majority Leader before election

Miguel Ángel Pichetto
FPV-PJ

Elected Senate Majority Leader

TBD

Argentine Deputies election, 2015
Argentina
2013 ←
25 October 2015 → 2017

  Majority party Minority party Third party
  No image.png Mario das neves.jpg
Leader TBD Mario Negri Mario Das Neves
Party FPV-PJ UNEN FR-PJ
Leader since 2015 2013 2013
Leader's seat TBD Cordoba Chubut
Seats before 132
at stake: 84
61
at stake: 25
22
at stake: 6

  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
  Fpinedo.jpg No image.png No image.png
Leader Federico Pinedo Carlos Caserio Lino Aguilar
Party PRO CDP-PJ FP-PJ
Leader since 2007 2013 2013
Leader's seat City of Buenos Aires Córdoba San Luis
Seats before 21
at stake: 5
6
at stake: 2
5
at stake: 3

Blank Argentina Map.svg


Chamber of Deputies
Majority Leader before election

Julián Domínguez
FPV-PJ

Elected Chamber of Deputies
Majority Leader

TBD

Senate[edit]

Party/Affiliation Total seats Seats not up Seats up
Front for Victory & Allies 39 31 8
Justicialist PartyFront for Victory 32 28 4
Civic Front for Santiago 2 2 0
Justicialist Party—La Pampa 2 0 2
Front for Integration 2 0 2
Popular Front 1 1 0
Broad Front UNEN 21 7 14
Radical Civic Union 10 3 7
Civic and Social Front of Catamarca 2 0 2
Cordoba Civic Front 2 0 2
Civic Coalition ARI 1 1 0
Proyecto Sur 1 1 0
Generation for a National Encounter 1 1 0
Unión por Chaco 1 1 0
Socialist Party 1 0 1
Liberal Party of Corrientes 1 0 1
Frente de Todos 1 0 1
Federal Peronism & Allies 5 3 2
Justicialist PartyFederal Commitment 2 2 0
Justicialist October 8 1 1 0
Santa Fe Federal 1 0 1
Federalismo Santafesino 1 0 1
Republican Proposal & Allies 3 3 0
Union PRO 2 2 0
Union For Entre Ríos 1 1 0
Renewal Front & Allies 1 1 0
Producción y Trabajo 1 1 0
Others 3 3 0
Neuquén People's Movement 2 2 0
Fueguino People's Movement 1 1 0
Total 72 48 24

Chamber of Deputies[edit]

Party/Affiliation Total seats Seats not up Seats up
Front for Victory & Allies 132 48 84
Justicialist PartyFront for Victory 119 42 77
Civic Front for Santiago 7 3 4
New Encounter Front 3 1 2
Justicialist Party—La Pampa 1 1 0
Popular Solidarity Movement 1 1 0
Front for Social Inclusion 1 0 1
Broad Front UNEN 61 36 25
Radical Civic Union 36 23 13
Socialist Party 8 3 5
Generation for a National Encounter 4 1 3
Civic Coalition ARI 3 3 0
Civic and Social Front of Catamarca 2 2 0
Sum + 2 2 0
Cordoba Civic Front 2 0 2
Proyecto Sur 1 1 0
Liberal Party of Corrientes 1 1 0
Freemen of the South Movement 1 0 1
UDESO Salta 1 0 1
Renewal Front & Allies 22 16 6
Justicialist PartyRenewal Front 17 13 4
Work and Dignity 2 2 0
Unión Celeste y Blanco 1 1 0
Peronismo Más Al Sur 1 0 1
Unir 1 0 1
Republican Proposal & Allies 21 16 5
Union PRO 18 14 4
Popular Conservative Party 1 1 0
Union For Entre Ríos 1 1 0
Democratic Party (Mendoza) 1 0 1
Christian Democratic Party & Allies 6 4 2
Alliance Union of Cordoba 3 3 0
Culture, Education and Work 2 1 1
Bloque Fe 1 0 1
Federal Peronism & Allies 5 2 3
Justicialist PartyFederal Commitment 5 2 3
Workers' Left Front 3 3 0
Workers' PartyWorkers' Left Front 2 2 0
Socialist Workers' PartyWorkers' Left Front 1 1 0
Popular Unity 3 0 3
Popular Unity 3 0 3
Others 4 2 2
Neuquén People's Movement 3 2 1
Fueguino People's Movement 1 0 1
Total 257 127 130

References[edit]

  1. ^ http://www.diarioregistrado.com/politica/101148-es-oficial--hay-fecha-para-las-paso-y-las-elecciones-generales.html Es oficial: hay fecha para las PASO y las elecciones generales] Diario Registrado, 2 September 2014 (Spanish)
  2. ^ "Country Profile: Argentina". IFES. Retrieved 2013-04-16. 
  3. ^ Sin diálogo con Cristina, Scioli decidió preservarse ahora para pelear en 2015 (Spanish)
  4. ^ "Sergio Urribarri, lanzado al 2015: "Yo garantizo la continuidad explícita del proyecto de Cristina"" [Sergio Uribarri, ready for 2015: "I represent the explicit continuity of Critina's project"] (in Spanish). La Nación. April 6, 2014. Retrieved April 9, 2014. 
  5. ^ Aníbal Fernández: Yo sí quiero ser presidente en 2015 (Spanish)
  6. ^ Florencio Randazzo se lanzo para 2015: " Si saco adelantw el transporte público despues juego cualquier partido" (Spanish)
  7. ^ Julián Domínguez se lanzó hacia 2015 apelando a "la continuidad" (Spanish)
  8. ^ Urtubey ratificó que se suma a la pelea en 2015 (Spanish)
  9. ^ Agustín Rossi confirmó que será candidato a presidente en 2015 (Spanish)
  10. ^ Taiana se suma al pelotón de candidatos del oficialismo (Spanish)
  11. ^ Binner bajó su candidatura presidencial y propuso a Stolbizer, Infobae (Spanish)
  12. ^ Sanz, Cobos, Binner y Solanas confirmaron que buscaran la presidencia (Spanish)
  13. ^ Massa dice que su prioridad es 2015 y decide si vale la pena jugar ahora (Spanish)
  14. ^ "José Manuel De la Sota no descartó ir a una interna con Massa y se distanció del PJ" [José Manuel de la Sota did not reject a primary election with Massa and distanced from the PJ] (in Spanish). La Nación. March 30, 2014. Retrieved May 19, 2014. 
  15. ^ Avanza el acuerdo Massa - Rodriguez Saá de cara al 2015 (Spanish)
  16. ^ Macri 2015: "Lo que hago en la Ciudad se puede hacer en el país" (Spanish)
  17. ^ Mauricio Macri y Elisa Carrió anunciaron que van a competir en las primarias - Diario La Nación (Spanish)
  18. ^ Sanz se lanzó para liderar la UCR en las elecciones 2015 (Spanish)
  19. ^ Congreso del PO lanzó la candidatura de Jorge Altamira (Spanish)
  20. ^ El PTS presenta sus precandidatos para el Frente de Izquierda (Spanish)
  21. ^ De Gennaro se lanzó como candidato presidencial para 2015 (Spanish)
  22. ^ El MST - Nueva Izquierda presenta la fórmula Bodart - Ripolli
  23. ^ El MST - Nueva Izquierda presenta la fórmula Bodart - Ripolli (Spanish)
  24. ^ Massa baja pero sigue al frente, Scioli se frena y Macri le pisa los talones (Spanish)
  25. ^ Incognitas de la oposicion (Spanish)
  26. ^ Crece la intencion de voto de Macri (Spanish)
  27. ^ Encuestas Presidenciales (Spanish)
  28. ^ Encuestas Presidenciales (Spanish)
  29. ^ [1] (Spanish)
  30. ^ [2] (Spanish)
  31. ^ [3] (Spanish)
  32. ^ [4] (Spanish)
  33. ^ [5] (Spanish)
  34. ^ [6] (Spanish)
  35. ^ [7] (Spanish)
  36. ^ [8] (Spanish)

External links[edit]