J. Scott Armstrong
|J. Scott Armstrong|
|Born||March 26, 1937|
|Institutions||The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania|
|Alma mater||MIT Sloan School of Management
- 1 Education and background
- 2 Forecasting
- 3 Marketing and advertising
- 4 Public Policy
- 5 Selected publications
- 6 Organizations
- 7 Media
- 8 References
Education and background
Armstrong received his B.A. in applied science (1959) and his B.S. in industrial engineering (1960) from Lehigh University. In 1965, he received his M.S. in industrial administration from Carnegie-Mellon University. He received his Ph.D. in management from the MIT Sloan School of Management in 1968. He has taught in Thailand, Switzerland, Sweden, New Zealand, Australia, South Africa, Argentina, Japan, and other countries.
His full biography and published papers can be found at: JScottArmstrong.com.
- Armstrong is the author of Long-Range Forecasting and the editor and co-author of Principles of Forecasting. He was a founder and editor of the Journal of Forecasting, and a founder of the International Journal of Forecasting, and the International Symposium on Forecasting.
- Armstrong examined the methods used by the IPCC to make projections. In an article published in Energy & Environment, he claimed that the IPCC and climate scientists have ignored the scientific literature on forecasting principles. Armstrong wrote:
- "When we inspected the 17 [forecasting] articles, we found that none of them referred to the scientific literature on forecasting methods. It is difficult to understand how scientific forecasting could be conducted without reference to the research literature on how to make forecasts. One would expect to see empirical justification for the forecasting methods that were used. We concluded that climate forecasts are informed by the modelers’ experience and by their models—but that they are unaided by the application of forecasting principles." (page 1015) A rebuttal published in the journal concluded that Interfaces:
- "Green and Armstrong (2007, p.997) also concluded that the thousands of refereed scientific publications that comprise the basis of the IPCC reports and represent the state of scientific knowledge on past, present and future climates "were not the outcome of scientific procedures." Such cavalier statements appear to reflect an overt attempt by the authors of those reports to cast doubt about the reality of human-caused global warming ... "
- Armstrong extended a Global Warming Challenge to Al Gore in June 2007, in the style of the Simon–Ehrlich wager. Each side was to place $10,000 ($20,000 total) in trust, with the winner being determined by future temperature change. Gore declined the wager, stating that he does not gamble. Climatologist Gavin Schmidt described Armstrong's wager as "essentially a bet on year to year weather noise" rather than on climate change.
- Armstrong has published articles and testified before Congress on forecasts of polar bear populations (testimony), arguing that previous estimates were too flawed to justify listing the bear as an endangered species. In an evaluation of Armstrong and other authors’ criticism of polar bear population forecasts, Amstrup and other authors, writing a response in the journal Interfaces, concluded that all of the claims made by Armstrong, which included lack of independence of the USGS, were either mistaken or misleading.
Marketing and advertising
Armstrong's book Persuasive Advertising: Evidence-based Principles was published by Palgrave Macmillan in 2010. In it, Armstrong presents 194 principles designed to increase the persuasiveness of advertisements. The principles were derived from empirical data, expert opinion, and observation. They are organized and indexed under ten general principles (e.g. emotion, attention), and those ten principles are further grouped into three categories: strategy, general tactics, and media-specific tactics.
In 1989, a University of Maryland study ranked Armstrong among the top 15 marketing professors in the U.S. based on a study using peer ratings, citations, and publications.[self-published source?] He serves or has served on editorial positions for the Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, the Journal of Business Research, Interfaces, and other journals. He was awarded the Society for Marketing Advances Distinguished Scholar Award for 2000.
Armstrong also has published several papers dealing with public policy issues ranging from the effectiveness of government mandated disclaimers the moral hazards of executive compensation.
- In Evidence on the Effects of Mandatory Disclaimers in Advertising Armstrong concluded that government mandated disclaimer can be ineffective or even harmful by encouraging negative behavior. This may because it reduces the buyer’s sense of responsibility and care, thus resulting in more risky behavior. The free market should fix labelling problems by itself as sellers have a long-term interest to ensure the satisfaction of buyers and buyers themselves will seek to find out information about the product.
- In another study, Armstrong concluded that that forecasts that the government used as evidence to put future polar bear populations on the endangered species list did not adhere to the majority of relevant scientific forecasting principles and thus should be rejected.
- Armstrong made headlines in 2007 by challenging Al Gore to a $10,000 bet on yearly temperatures, which he refers to as "The Global Warming Challenge". He has also testified before Congress on flaws in forecasts of polar bear populations.
- Persuasive Advertising: Evidence-based Principles
- Long-Range Forecasting
- Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners
- Golden Rule of Forecasting: Be conservative. By adhering to cumulative knowledge about the situation and forecasting methods. Proposed 28 guidelines that logically follow this definition for conservatism.
- Simple versus complex forecasting: The evidence. Complexity increases forecast error by 27 percent on average in the 25 papers with quantitative comparisons.
- Fred Collopy, J. Scott Armstrong (1992), "Rule-Based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations", Management Science, 38 (10), 1394–1414.
- J. Scott Armstrong, Fred Collopy (1992), "Error Measures for Generalizing about Forecasting Methods: Empirical Comparisons", International Journal of Forecasting, 8, 69–80.
- Developed and validated the Persuasion Principles Audit to assess the persuasiveness of ads.
- J. Scott Armstrong (1991), "Prediction of Consumer Behavior by Experts and Novices", Journal of Consumer Research, 18 (September), 251–256.
- J. Scott Armstrong, Robert J. Brodie, Andrew G. Parsons (2001), "Hypotheses in Marketing Science: Literature Review and Publication Audit", Marketing Letters, 12 (2),171–187.
- Peer Review for Journals: Evidence on Quality Control, Fairness, and Innovation. Obtained evidence of bias against the publication and citation of papers with controversial findings
- J. Scott Armstrong, Ruth A. Pagell (2003), "Reaping Benefits from Management Research: Lessons from the Forecasting Principles Project", Interfaces, 33 (6), 89–111.
- The Ombudsman: Are Top Executives Paid Enough? An Evidence-Based Review. High pay and incentive payments for top executives are detrimental to firms, based on experimental evidence
Peer Review in Science
- Advocacy as a Scientific Strategy: The Mitroff Myth. Proposed a “results-blind reviewing” procedure for reviewing journal articles with controversial findings
- Is Review By Peers As Fair As It Appears? Showed that journal reviewing practices are neither objective nor fair. Proposed a procedure to increase the likelihood of publishing important papers.
- J. Scott Armstrong (2012), "Natural Learning in Higher Education", Encyclopedia of the Sciences of Learning. Heidelberg: Springer (2012)
- Social Irresponsibility in Management. Stakeholder role, in combination with social accounting, reduces socially irresponsible decisions
- Evidence on the Effects of Mandatory Disclaimers in Advertising. Government-mandated programs for social responsible behavior for firms are harmful: Based on our review of research on government-mandated or subsidized programs to promote social responsibility
- Illusions in Regression Analysis. Attempts to identify causality by using regression analysis of non-experimental data are typically detrimental
- Error Measures For Generalizing About Forecasting Methods: Empirical Comparisons. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE): Conducted experiments and found that the RMSE is inappropriate for comparing forecasting methods; more appropriate measures were selected and are now used
Armstrong is a founder or co-founder of these organizations
- Journal of Forecasting, founded 1982. 1982-83 citation impact factor 7th in business, management, and planning journals.
- International Journal of Forecasting, established 1985. 1988 citation impact factor almost as high as Management Science.
- International Institute of Forecasters, established 1982.
- International Symposium on Forecasting, annually since 1981.
- ForecastingPrinciples.com, founded 1997. Five awards and over eleven million visits to date.
- PollyVote.com, founded 2004. Most accurate forecasts of U.S. Presidential election vote shares in 2004, 2008, and 2012.
- TheClimateBet.com, 2007 challenge to Al Gore. After seven years of this “10-year bet” on climate, Mr. Gore trails.
- AdPrin.com, founded 2000. 2004 MERLOT Award, “Best online learning resource business & management.” 1,200 visits/day.
- Alain Elkann Interview about Scott Armstrong's about life as a scientific skeptic. Motivated by the list of 25 Most Famous College Professors Teaching Today
- Interview of J. Scott Armstrong for the International Journal on Forecasting
- News media
- Armstrong, J. Scott. "Improving Learning at Universities: Who is Responsible?", "University of Pennsylvania Alamanac", December 14, 2004. Accessed May 10, 2007.
- Kranish, Michael. "Flaws are found in validating medical studies", Boston Globe, August 15, 2005. Accessed May 10, 2007.
- Surowiecki, James. "In Praise of Third Place", The New Yorker, December 4, 2006. Accessed May 10, 2007.
- Hume, Brit. "Is Al Gore Willing to Put His Money Where His Mouth Is?", FOX News July 6, 2007. Accessed July 9, 2007.
- sueddeutsche.de GmbH, Munich, Germany. "Wahlforschung – Zauberformeln für den Wählerwillen – Wissen". sueddeutsche.de. Retrieved 2010-04-19.
- topeditor (2007-09-05). "Grading the Forecasts of ‘Experts’". Blogs.wsj.com. Retrieved 2010-04-19.
- "spiked | Put your money where your ‘myth’ is". Spiked-online.com. Retrieved 2010-04-19.
- "Welcome To". Jscottarmstrong.com. Retrieved 2010-04-19.
- (Journal of Forecasting, 1,1982, p. 1–2)
- "Professor Scott Armstrong Exposing Inaccuracies in Polar Bear Studies". News of Interest.TV. Retrieved 2010-04-19.
- Amstrup, Steven C. , Casswell H., DeWeaver E., Stirling I., Douglas D.C., Marcot B.G., Hunter C.M. (2009). "Rebuttal of "Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit"" (PDF). Interfaces 39: 353–369. doi:10.1287/inte.1090.0444.
- Schapiro, Rich (2008-03-01). "Penn prof still hot to tackle Al Gore on global warming". New York: NY Daily News. Retrieved 2010-04-19.
- Hume, Brit (2007-06-27). "One Expert Is Willing to Bet Money Al Gore Is Wrong About Global Warming – Brit Hume | Special Report". FOXNews.com. Retrieved 2010-04-16.
- Gavin Schmidt (20 July 2007). "Green and Armstrong’s scientific forecast". RealClimate. Retrieved 11 April 2014.
- "Federal Polar Bear Research Critically Flawed, Forecasting Expert Asserts". ScienceDaily. 2008-05-10. Retrieved 2010-04-19.
- "Federal Polar Bear Research Critically Flawed, Argue Forecasting Experts in INFORMS Journal – INFORMS: The Institute For Operations Research and The Management Sciences". Informs. Retrieved 2010-04-19.
- Armstrong, J. Scott, Persuasive Advertising, Palgrave Macmillan
- "J. Scott Armstrong, Professor of Marketing – The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania". Marketing.wharton.upenn.edu. 2008-11-18. Retrieved 2010-04-16.
- Armstrong, Scott (30 March 2012). "Evidence on the Effects of Mandatory Disclaimers in Advertising". Journal of Public Policy & Marketing.
- Armstrong, Scott; Green, Kesten; Soon, Willie (September–October 2008). "Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit". Interfaces 38 (38): 382–405.