Arizona gubernatorial election, 2014

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Arizona gubernatorial election, 2014
Arizona
2010 ←
November 4, 2014 → 2018

  Doug Ducey by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg Fred DuVal by Gage Skidmore.jpg
Nominee Doug Ducey Fred DuVal
Party Republican Democratic

Blank Map of Arizona.svg


Incumbent Governor

Jan Brewer
Republican

The 2014 Arizona gubernatorial election will be held on November 4, 2014, to elect the Governor of Arizona, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican Governor Jan Brewer is term-limited and cannot run for re-election to a second full term in office. After a bitter six-candidate primary, Republicans nominated Arizona State Treasurer Doug Ducey; Democrat Fred DuVal, the former Chairman of the Arizona Board of Regents, won his party's nomination unopposed.

Background[edit]

Candidates for Governor speaking at a forum hosted by the Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry. From left to right: Al Melvin, Scott Smith, Christine Jones, Fred DuVal, Frank Riggs, Doug Ducey and Ken Bennett.

Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano resigned on January 21, 2009, to be sworn-in as Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security. Since Arizona does not have a Lieutenant Governor, Secretary of State Jan Brewer was first in the state's gubernatorial line of succession and was sworn in as Governor on the same day. She was elected to a full term in 2010, defeating Democrat Terry Goddard, the Arizona Attorney General, by 54% to 42%.

Brewer is term-limited in 2014, despite only serving one full term. This is because Arizona state law limits office holders to two consecutive terms regardless of whether they serve full or partial terms. In November 2012, Brewer declared she was looking into what she called "ambiguity" in Arizona's term-limit law to seek a third term.[1] In February 2014, Brewer reiterated that she was considering running for re-election,[2] but on March 12, 2014, she announced that she would not attempt to seek another term in office, which would have required what The Arizona Republic called a "long-shot court challenge".[3]

Republican primary[edit]

The Republican primary campaign was widely characterised as being a "bitter" and "nasty"[4][5][6][7] and the $16.2 million spent by the six Republican candidates means that the 2014 election has already broken the record for most expensive gubernatorial race in state history, held since 2002 when $9.2 million was spent during the primary and general election campaigns combined.[8]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Withdrew[edit]

Declined[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ken
Bennett
Doug
Ducey
Christine
Jones
Al
Melvin
John
Molina
Frank
Riggs
Scott
Smith
Andrew
Thomas
Undecided
Magellan Strategies August 17–21, 2014 1,281 ± 2.74% 12% 32% 18% 2% 21% 8% 7%
Harper Polling August 19–20, 2014 812 ± 3.44% 14% 32% 16% 2% 19% 7% 10%
Remington August 17–19, 2014 502 ± 4.37% 10% 33% 18% 1% 22% 11% 5%
Magellan Strategies August 15–18, 2014 1,322 ± ? 12% 31% 17% 3% 22% 8% 7%
Magellan Strategies August 12–15, 2014 1,300 ± ? 10% 31% 16% 3% 23% 7% 10%
Magellan Strategies August 5–7, 2014 1,289 ± 2.73% 11% 29% 13% 4% 22% 9% 12%
Magellan Strategies July 28–31, 2014 1,644 ± ? 12% 23% 13% 5% 21% 10% 16%
Undisclosed Late July 2014  ? ± ? 10% 23% 20% 2% 15% 9% 21%
Harper Polling July 16–17, 2014 885 ± 3.29% 12% 23% 21% 1% 13% 7% 22%
Behavior Research Center July 10–17, 2014 459 ± 4.7% 10% 13% 17% 2% 8% 0% 50%
Gravis Marketing July 14, 2014 691 ± 4% 7% 28% 19% 1% 14% 8% 24%
Highground July 10–12, 2014 400 ± 4.9% 3.5% 17.3% 15.3% 1.5% 9.8% 3% 49.8%
Magellan Strategies July 9–10, 2014 593 ± 4.02% 11% 26% 22% 2% 14% 6% 19%
Harper Polling June 25–26, 2014 791 ± 3.48% 12% 33% 15% 2% 14% 3% 22%
McLaughlin & Associates June 10, 2014 400 ± 3.48% 8% 22.8% 6.2% 6.5% 56.5%
Magellan Strategies June 3–4, 2014 630 ± 3.9% 12% 28% 12% 2% 2% 16% 5% 23%
Magellan Strategies May 13–14, 2014 760 ± 3.6% 12.7% 27.3% 11.9% 1.3% 0.2% 0.7% 11.5% 5.6% 28.8%
Undisclosed April 29, 2014 1,367 ± 3.5% 7% 4% 10% 9% 5% 65%
Magellan Strategies April 8–9, 2014  ? ± ? 15% 9% 14% 1% 6% 6% 45%
Public Policy Polling Feb. 28–Mar. 2, 2014 403 ± 4.9% 20% 6% 16% 1% 1% 1% 12% 9% 34%
Behavior Research Center January 16–26, 2014 701 ± 3.8% 6% 2% 8% 1% 7% 7% 69%
Susquehanna Nov. 27–Dec. 4 2013 245 ± ? 20% 8% 4% 2% 6% 4% 56%

Results[edit]

Republican primary results[45]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Doug Ducey 200,607 37.05%
Republican Scott Smith 119,107 22.00%
Republican Christine Jones 89,922 16.61%
Republican Ken Bennett 62,010 11.45%
Republican Andrew Thomas 43,822 8.09%
Republican Frank Riggs 24,168 4.45%
Republican Write-in 1,804 0.33%
Totals 541,440 100%

Democratic primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Withdrew[edit]

Declined[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Polling[edit]

Results[edit]

Democratic primary results[45]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Fred Duval 271,276 96.93%
Democratic Write-in 8,578 3.07%
Totals 279,854 100%

Third parties[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Results[edit]

Libertarian primary results[45]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Barry Hess 3,979 74.74%
Libertarian Write-in 1,345 25.26%
Totals 5,324 100%
Americans Elect primary results[45]
Party Candidate Votes %
Americans Elect John Lewis Mealer 722 58.56%
Americans Elect Write-in 511 41.44%
Totals 1,233 100%

General election[edit]

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Doug
Ducey (R)
Fred
DuVal (D)
Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports October 14–16, 2014 1,056 ± 3% 47% 42% 3% 7%
Tarrance Group October 13–16, 2014 500 ± 4.5% 43% 36% 5%[67] 16%
McLaughlin & Associates October 14, 2014 500 ± ? 37% 35.8% 5.4%[68] 21.8%
Adrian Gray Consulting October 8–9, 2014 600 ± 4% 43% 35% 8%[69] 14%
Moore Information October 7–8, 2014 400 ± ~4.9% 36% 39% 4%[70] 21%
The Polling Company October 6–8, 2014 600 ± 4% 46% 37% 5%[67] 10%
CBS News/New York Times September 20–October 1, 2014 2,808 ± 3% 50% 39% 2% 9%
Keating Research September 17–19, 2014 600 ± 4% 41% 39% 7%[71] 13%
Tarrance Group September 15–17, 2014 505 ± 4.5% 44% 38% 7%[72] 11%
CBS News/New York Times August 18–September 2, 2014 3,289 ± 3% 39% 38% 15% 9%
Rasmussen Reports August 27–28, 2014 850 ± 3% 40% 40% 20%
Public Policy Polling August 24–25, 2014 588 ± 4% 35% 35% 12%[67] 18%
Public Policy Polling February 28–March 2, 2014 870 ± 3.3% 35% 36% 29%
Behavior Research Center January 16–26, 2014 701 ± 3.8% 21% 23% 56%
Susquehanna November 27–December 4, 2013 600 ± 4% 36% 33% 31%

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Report: Jan Brewer may seek 3rd term as Arizona governor". Politico. November 12, 2012. Retrieved November 13, 2012. 
  2. ^ "Brewer says it’s hard to let go of governing as she decides whether to seek re-election". AZ Central. February 24, 2014. Retrieved March 3, 2014. 
  3. ^ a b "Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer won't seek another term in office". AZ Central. March 12, 2014. Retrieved March 13, 2014. 
  4. ^ Samantha Lachman (August 6, 2014). "GOP Gubernatorial Candidate Calls Her Opponent A 'Misogynistic Jerk'". The Huffington Post. Retrieved September 18, 2014. 
  5. ^ Dan Nowicki (August 28, 2014). "Analysis of primary election results: Why they won". AZ Central. Retrieved September 18, 2014. 
  6. ^ Bob Christie (August 27, 2014). "Doug Ducey must unite GOP after bruising primary". AZ Family. Retrieved September 18, 2014. 
  7. ^ "Primary elections underway in Florida, Oklahoma, Arizona, and Vermont". CBS News. August 26, 2014. Retrieved September 18, 2014. 
  8. ^ "Governor's primary shatters spending records". AZ Central. August 30, 2014. Retrieved September 18, 2014. 
  9. ^ "Ken Bennett says he'll run for governor". Associated Press. September 19, 2013. Retrieved September 20, 2013. 
  10. ^ "State treasurer Doug Ducey files paperwork to explore Ariz governor run". East Valley Tribune. July 23, 2013. Retrieved July 25, 2013. 
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  32. ^ Yvonne Wingett Sanchez (August 1, 2014). "Arpaio endorses GOP governor candidate Doug Ducey". AZ Central. Retrieved September 11, 2014. 
  33. ^ Ducey, Doug (January 14, 2014). "Proud to be endorsed by Steve Chucri!". Facebook. Retrieved April 19, 2014. 
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  56. ^ Hendley, Matthew (February 26, 2013). "Felecia Rotellini Making Another Run at Attorney General". Phoenix New Times. Retrieved March 3, 2013. 
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  58. ^ a b c Riester. "Former Arizona Governors Babbitt, Mofford and Castro Endorse Fred DuVal - Fred DuVal 2014". Fred2014.com. Retrieved September 22, 2013. 
  59. ^ a b c Riester. "Three of Arizona's Former Congress Members Join Fred DuVal - Fred DuVal 2014". Fred2014.com. Retrieved September 22, 2013. 
  60. ^ a b Lavender, Paige (March 27, 2014). "Gabrielle Giffords And Mark Kelly Endorse Fred DuVal In Arizona Governor's Race". The Huffington Post. Retrieved March 27, 2014. 
  61. ^ Riester. "Congressman Raul Grijalva Announces Support for Fred DuVal - Fred DuVal 2014". Fred2014.com. Retrieved September 22, 2013. 
  62. ^ a b Riester (March 13, 2013). "Forty-Eight More Arizona Leaders Support Fred DuVal - Fred DuVal 2014". Fred2014.com. Retrieved September 22, 2013. 
  63. ^ Riester. "Arizona Congressman Ed Pastor Supports Fred DuVal - Fred DuVal 2014". Fred2014.com. Retrieved September 22, 2013. 
  64. ^ Riester (June 3, 2013). "Arizona Businessman Jim Pederson Endorses Fred DuVal for Governor - Fred DuVal 2014". Fred2014.com. Retrieved September 22, 2013. 
  65. ^ a b c d e f "List of Candidates". AZ Voter Guide. Retrieved October 19, 2014. 
  66. ^ a b c d e f "Against long odds, write-in candidates seek governor’s office". Arizona Capitol Times. September 10, 2014. Retrieved October 19, 2014. 
  67. ^ a b c Barry Hess (L)
  68. ^ Barry Hess (L) 2.8%, John Lewis Mealer (AE) 2.6%
  69. ^ Barry Hess (L) 5%, John Lewis Mealer (AE) 3%
  70. ^ Barry Hess (L) 3%, John Lewis Mealer (AE) 1%
  71. ^ Barry Hess (L)
  72. ^ Barry Hess (L) 6%, John Lewis Mealer (AE) 1%

External links[edit]

Official campaign websites