Bellwether

This article is about bellwethers in general. For Connie Willis's book, see Bellwether (novel).

A bellwether is any entity in a given arena that serves to create or influence trends or to presage future happenings.

The term is derived from the Middle English bellewether and refers to the practice of placing a bell around the neck of a castrated ram (a wether) leading his flock of sheep. The movements of the flock could be noted by hearing the bell before the flock was in sight.

Politics

In politics, the term is more often applied in the passive sense to describe a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. In a Westminster-style election, for example, a constituency, the control of which tends frequently to change, can mirror in its popular vote the result on a national scale.

Australia

In Australian federal elections, the electoral division of Eden-Monaro in New South Wales has elected its Member of Parliament from the party which won government at every federal election since 1972. The Division of Robertson in NSW has voted for the party winning government at every federal election since 1983. The Division of Lindsay in NSW, and the Division of Makin in South Australia have elected their members of parliament from the party which won government in every Federal election since their creation in 1984. They are the only existing divisions in the country to have such a bellwether title. However in terms of nationwide two party preferred vote, Eden-Monaro, Lindsay, Robertson and Makin have bucked the bellwether trend in the past by voting Liberal at the 1998 federal election. The state of New South Wales could also be considered a bellwether, as the party which wins government has won the majority of House of Representatives seats in that state at every election since 1963. Unlike many bellwethers, these are cited by analysts solely for their record and are not usually attributed to demographic factors that reflect the median of Australia.

Canada

In the Canadian province of Ontario, Sarnia-Lambton (and its predecessor ridings) have voted for the winning party in every federal election beginning with 1963. Also in Ontario, Peterborough has been won by the party who has won the most seats overall in provincial elections since 1977.

Ireland

Ireland has a proportional representation electoral system, in which politicians are elected by the single transferable vote. Bellwethers here can only be measured by the number of candidates from each side elected to Ireland's multiple-seat constituencies that elect an odd number of members. Meath and its successors, Meath East and Meath West, have elected a majority of Fianna Fáil TDs in years when Fianna Fáil formed the government, and a majority of Fine Gael and Labour TDs when those parties formed the government, since the 1981 general election.

New Zealand

In New Zealand, there are three generally accepted bellwether electorates: Hamilton East and Hamilton West, both based around the city of Hamilton, and Northcote on Auckland's North Shore. Hamilton West and Northcote have only missed one election each since they were first contested in 1969 and 1996 respectively - the 1993 election for Hamilton West and the 2005 election for Northcote. Hamilton East, first contested in 1972, has missed three elections - 1993, 1999, and 2005.

Spain

Since democracy was restored in 1977 four provinces have always voted for the winning party (Álava, Teruel, Zaragoza and Huesca) as one Autonomous Community has done (Aragon).

Sweden

According to Statistics Sweden, election results in Karlstad have been closest to the national results for three consecutive elections, a fact often highlighted by media through Gallup Polls showing voting intentions in the area.

United Kingdom

United Kingdom constituencies have been subject to frequent review since the late 1960s, particularly those of the House of Commons. Few constituencies are unchanged from one review to another. Therefore, true bellwethers are rare. However, it is possible to match new constituencies to old ones according to the destination of the bulk of the old electorate.

In the United Kingdom, the Dartford constituency has reflected the overall result in every General Election since 1964 and the Basildon constituency has reflected every result since its creation in 1974. Gravesham and its predecessor Gravesend had a perfect record of voting for the winning party or the one with the largest share of the vote in every election from the First World War except for 2005, when they voted Conservative with Labour winning the election. Bristol North West is also considered something of a bellwether, with its voters having elected the candidate of the winning party in every election since October 1974, though it failed to do so on a number of occasions prior to this.

Luton South and its predecessors the Luton East and Luton constituencies have elected an MP from the winning party in each election since the 1951 general election until 2010.

Scottish Parliament

In the 1999, 2003 and 2007 Scottish Parliament elections, the constituencies of Cunninghame North, Dundee West, Edinburgh East & Musselburgh, Fife Central, Glasgow Govan, Kilmarnock & Loudoun, Livingston, Stirling, Western Isles all elected an MSP from the party which won the plurality of seats in the election overall. Following boundary changes for the 2011 election, the successor constituencies to all the above seats maintained this trend.

United States

States

In the United States, Nevada has produced the same outcome as the national results in every presidential election beginning in 1912, except in 1976, thus voting for the winner 96.0% of the time. Ohio is the second closest with a match rate of 93.1%. Missouri, often referred to as the Missouri bellwether, was for many years the best match of the national results, but since 2008 is now third closest with a 92.6% match rate.

The American bellwether states (with respect to presidential elections) currently are:

• Nevada - 1 miss (1976) from 1912 on (96.0%, slightly "too Republican").
• Ohio - 2 misses (1944, 1960) from 1896 on (93.1%, slightly "too Republican").
• Missouri - 2 misses (1956, 2008) from 1904 on (92.6%, "neutral").
• New Mexico - 2 misses (1976, 2000) from 1912 on (92%, "neutral"). The state of New Mexico voted for the winner of the popular vote in 2000.
• Florida - 2 misses (1960, 1992) from 1928 on (90.5%, slightly "too Republican").
• Tennessee - 2 misses (1960, 2008) from 1928 on (90.5%, slightly "too Republican").
• Delaware - 2 misses (2000, 2004) from 1952 on (86.7%, slightly "too Democratic"). The state of Delaware voted for the winner of the popular vote in 2000.

In addition, the Territory of Guam has had no misses from 1984 on (100.0%). Guam has no electoral college votes, but conducts a straw vote on local election day. Also of note, in every presidential election from 1992 through 2008, Iowa's popular vote margin was within 2.55 percentage points of the national popular vote result.

Counties

American bellwether counties include:

• Vigo County, Indiana (county seat: Terre Haute) - 2 misses (1908, 1952) from 1892 on, perfect since 1956. From 1960 to 2004, Vigo County had been within 3 percent of the national presidential vote every election. In 2008, Vigo County again voted with the winner, but Obama's percentage of 57.3% was about 4.4% above Obama's national vote.

• Bexar County, Texas (county seat: San Antonio) - perfect since 1972.^{[citation needed]}

• Chautauqua County, New York (county seat: Mayville) - perfect since 1980, 2 misses since 1960.

A list of the top 50 American bellwether counties between 1980 and 2004 is available here.

Stock market

In the stock market, a bellwether (barometer stock in the UK) is the stock of a company that is regarded as a leader in its given industry. The performance of the stock is said to reflect the performance of the industry in general. These stocks are used as barometers for the rest of the market. JPMorgan Chase is an example of a bellwether stock. As one of the major banks in the US, it sets the tone for the rest of the industry. JPMorgan Chase also has contracts with companies in other industries so its performance is reflected in other sectors of the market.

Sociology

In sociology, the term is applied in the active sense to a person or group of people who tend to create, influence or set trends.

Business

Trends in expenditure in the UK advertising and marketing industry are monitored in the quarterly Bellwether Report, published by the Institute of Practitioners in Advertising (IPA).

See also

• As Maine goes, so goes the nation
• Will it play in Peoria?
• Swing state
• Early adopter
• Peer-mediated instruction