Bolivian general election, 2014

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Bolivian general election, 2014
Bolivia
2009 ←
October 12, 2014

  Evo Morales.jpg Ruben Costas.jpg
Nominee Evo Morales Rubén Costas Samuel Doria Medina
Party MAS-IPSP MDS National Unity

 
Nominee Juan del Granado
Party Without Fear Movement

Incumbent President

Evo Morales
MAS-IPSP

General elections will be held in Bolivia in late 2014.[1] Bolivian voters will elect:

The currently expected date for the election is October 12, 2014. If necessary, a presidential runoff will be held in December.

This general election will be the second under the country's 2009 constitution, and the first supervised by the Plurinational Electoral Organ, a newly created fourth branch of government.

Background[edit]

In April 2013, the Supreme Court ruled that the first term of President Evo Morales did not count towards constitutional term limits as the constitution of Bolivia had since been amended. On 20 May, Vice President Alvaro Garcia Linera signed a bill into law in the presence of MPs, members of the armed forces and Movement for Socialism representatives. He said: "President Evo Morales is constitutionally permitted to run for re-election in 2015." This was despite Morales not having made an announcement to run. Unnamed opposition leaders said they would appeal the ruling in trying to overturn it.[2]

Election schedule[edit]

The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) disclosed in November 2013 that it is considering holding the election on October 2014, in order to ensure that a possible second round of presidential voting can be completed in December, the traditional month for presidential votes.[3] The TSE formally convened the election for October 12, 2014. Registration for new voters opened on May 10 and will extend through June 9.[4] Formal inter-party alliances must be finalized by July 14 to appear on the ballot. Electoral propaganda is legal after that date, but campaign-related media advertising is permitted only from September 12 to October 8.[4] Bolivia observes limits on electoral activity in the days immediately preceding an election, and special restrictions during the electoral day. The TSE has pledged to complete its vote count by October 22.[4]

To win the presidential election, a candidate must either win an absolute majority (more than 50%) of the vote or at least 40% of the vote and a 10% lead over the second-place candidate. If neither threshold is met, a run-off election will be held on December 7, 2014.[5][4] In the case of a exact tie in elections for uninominal legislative seats, a district-wide run-off will occur on November 9.[4]

Seats in the legislature[edit]

Election to the Plurinational Legislative Assembly is simultaneous with the presidential election. Senators and plurinominal deputies are awarded based on the party's vote in the presidential contest. Single-district (uninominal) deputies are chosen by a separate line on the ballot.[6]

Each of Bolivia's nine departments has four Senators, which are assigned by proportional representation.[6]

Seats in the Chamber of Deputies were reapportioned among Bolivia's nine departments according to the results of the 2012 national census.[7] Plurinominal seats are elected by proportional representation in each department. Uninominal seats are elected by simple majority in each district. Indigenous or Campesino seats are chosen by the usos y costumbres of minority groups. Each candidate has an elected alternate of the same party. All candidate lists must alternate between men and women; in single-district votes, men must run with female alternates and vice versa.[6] The Supreme Electoral Tribunal has promised to announce new district boundaries for uninominal seats by mid-April.[8]

Department Total Deputies Uninominal Deputies Plurinominal Deputies Special Indigenous
or Campesino Deputies
Senators
La Paz 29 14 14 1 4
Santa Cruz 28 14 13 1 4
Cochabamba 19 9 9 1 4
Potosí 13 7 6 0 4
Chuquisaca 10 5 5 0 4
Oruro 9 4 4 1 4
Tarija 9 4 4 1 4
Beni 8 4 3 1 4
Pando 5 2 2 1 4
Total 130 63 60 7 36
Source: Ley de distribución de escaños entre departamentos, 7 October 2013.

Parties and candidates[edit]

As of November 2013, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal deemed twelve political parties eligible to participate in the election at a national level:

Eleven further applications were still being considered as of November 9, 2013.[9]

Movement for Socialism[edit]

Sitting President Evo Morales Ayma and Vice President Álvaro García Linera are seeking re-election, following victories in 2005 and 2009. Their candidacy was endorsed by the Movement for Socialism – Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples (MAS-IPSP) at its 18th anniversary gathering in March 2013 and its Seventh General Congress in October 2013.[10][11]

Without Fear Movement[edit]

The center-left Without Fear Movement (MSM) nominated party founder, and 2000–2010 Mayor of La Paz Juan del Granado as its candidate for president on November 11, 2013.[12] Both the party and its candidate were allies with the first Evo Morales administration, and the MSM ran on a joint slate with the MAS-IPSP in the 2009 election, but the alliance ruptured shortly afterwards.

Social Democrat Movement[edit]

Rubén Costas, governor of Santa Cruz department, founded the Social Democrat Movement to contest the 2014 elections.[13] The party fuses Costas' Truth and Social Democracy (VERDES) party, Renewing Freedom and Democracy (Libertad y Democracia Renovadora; Líder), and Popular Consensus, although the merger is not legally recognized.[14] Costas was chosen as the party's presidential nominee at its National Congress on December 15, 2013.[15][16]

Broad Front[edit]

National Unity Front, the party led by Samuel Doria Medina, has named its alliance for 2014 the Broad Front (Spanish: Frente Amplio). Doria Medina, a presidential candidate in 2005 and 2009, the presumed candidate for the Front for months.[17][18] On December 23, 2013, the Broad Front and the Revolutionary Nationalist Movement (MNR) signed an agreement to present a common candidate, to be selected by an internal primary election. Leaders of both parties say they are seeking a coalition with the Democrats and the Without Fear Movement.[19]

On April 19–20, 2014, the Broad Front held a poll of its members in the nine departmental capitals of Bolivia. Doria Medina received a majority of 69% among the 2,652 people polled, making him the party's official presidential candidate. Other candidates participating were: indigenous leader Rafael Quispe of CONAMAQ, political scientist Jimena Costa and MNR faction leader Erick Morón. While the party declined to officially announce the vote totals received by other contenders, the newspaper La Razón reported tha Costa received 14%, Quispe 10%, and Morón 6%.[20]

Green Party[edit]

The Green Party, led by Margot Soria Saravia and affiliated with the Global Greens, sealed an alliance with the National Council of Ayllus and Markas of Qullasuyu (CONAMAQ) to campaign jointly for the 2014 elections.[21] CONAMAQ leader Rafael Quispe may head the ticket, but he has publicly stated that his organization's goal is not to win the presidency but to gain independent representation in the Plurinational Assembly: "God willing I am wrong, but I don't think that we will arrive to power yet in 2014, as we have discussed [among ourselves]. We could put in assembly members and those assembly members will have to work for a Plurinational State and in [the] 2019 [elections] we would arrive in power to transform the Colonial State into a Plurinational State."[22] The Confederation of Indigenous Peoples of Bolivia separately committed to contest the elections in alliance with CONAMAQ, and independently of the MAS and other major parties (Without Fear, National Unity, or Social Democrat).[23]

Alliances among parties[edit]

Official alliances between parties allow for joint candidates and ballot lines. These must be finalized by the July 14 deadline for candidacies.

The largest opposition parties—the Democrats (MDS), National Unity Front (UN; convener of the Broad Front), and Without Fear Movement—held a variety of talks discussing possible alliances from late 2013 through June 2014. In the end, the Democrats and National Unity were able to reach an agreement, while the Without Fear Movement remained separate. On June 17, the two parties announced the formation of the Unity Democrat Coalition (Spanish: Concertación Unidad Demócrata) whose candidates for president and vice president will be UN leader Samuel Doria Medina and Ernesto Suárez, respectively.[24] Suárez is the former governor of Beni and leader of the Beni First party, which collaborated in the formation of the MDS.

Seven smaller parties—Revolutionary Nationalist Movement, Nationalist Democratic Action, New Republican Force, Civic Solidarity Union, Front for Victory, Andean Amazonic Power, and Colla Power—reported progress towards a common alliance on June 18. The bloc would be called United for Bolivia (Unidos por Bolivia), and a congressional deputy involved in alliance talks promised it would be finalized on June 25.[25]

Opinion polls[edit]

An unnamed poll in April 2013 suggested in an hypothetical race Morales would get 41% and Samuel Doria Medina would get 17% of the vote.[2] A poll conducted by Página Siete in February 2014 showed Morales would get 45.7% of the vote, Medina would get 13.4%, Rubén Costas would get 9%, and Juan del Granado would get 4%.[26]

References[edit]

  1. ^ Electoral Calendar IFES
  2. ^ a b http://www.aljazeera.com/news/americas/2013/05/2013521517384962.html
  3. ^ "Tribunal Electoral de Bolivia analiza cronograma de elecciones 2014". Prensa Latina. 2013-11-06. Retrieved 2013-11-12. 
  4. ^ a b c d e Cartagena, Jenny (2014-05-02). "El calendario de elecciones 2014 está en marcha". Los Tiempos. Retrieved 2014-05-20. 
  5. ^ Articles 52 and 53. Ley del Régimen Electoral, 30 June 2010.
  6. ^ a b c Ley del Régimen Electoral, 30 June 2010.
  7. ^ Ley de distribución de escaños entre departamentos, 7 October 2013.
  8. ^ Mealla, Luis (2014-03-26). "El TSE prevé para abril el mapa electoral - La Razón". La Razón. Retrieved 2014-03-26. 
  9. ^ a b "TSE: 12 frentes pueden participar de elecciones 2014". Erbol Digital. 2013-11-09. Retrieved 2013-11-29. 
  10. ^ "MAS boliviano proclama a Morales como candidato a la Presidencia en 2014". teleSUR (28 March 2013). Retrieved 2013-11-12. 
  11. ^ "MAS proclama a Evo Morales como candidato a elecciones presidenciales del 2014". AVN. 2013-10-05. Retrieved 2013-11-12. 
  12. ^ "A 11 meses de comicios exsocio de Evo es el primer candidato a la presidencia". Opinión (Cochabamba, Bolivia). 2013-11-12. Retrieved 2013-11-12. 
  13. ^ Candori, Iván (2013-03-29). "Costas da forma a un nuevo partido". La Razón. Retrieved 2013-11-24. 
  14. ^ "TSE inscribe al Movimiento Demócratas". Los Tiempos (Cochabamba, Bolivia). 2013-08-28. Retrieved 2013-11-24. 
  15. ^ "El MDS elige a Rubén Costas como candidato presidencial para 2014". La Razón (15 December 2013 ed.). Retrieved 2014-04-29. 
  16. ^ "Demócratas arrancan previas y Costas no descarta ser candidato". Opinión (Cochabamba, Bolivia). 2013-11-05. Retrieved 2013-11-24. 
  17. ^ Mealla, Luis (2013-09-15). "Opositores elegirán candidatos un año antes de los comicios de 2014". La Razón (La Paz, Bolivia). Retrieved 2013-11-24. 
  18. ^ Aguilar Agramont, Ricardo (2013-11-24). "El MSM ya tiene 20 aliados, 13 los Demócratas y 11 el Frente Amplio". La Razón (La Paz, Bolivia). Retrieved 2013-11-24. 
  19. ^ [1]
  20. ^ Ariñez, Rubén (2014-04-29). "El candidato del Frente Amplio es Doria Medina". La Razón. Retrieved 2014-04-29. 
  21. ^ "El Partido Verde y Conamaq firman acuerdo político rumbo a las elecciones". Opinión (Cochabamba, Bolivia). 2013-11-28. Retrieved 2013-11-29. 
  22. ^ "ojalá que me equivoque, no creo que este 2014 lleguemos al poder todavía, eso hemos hablado. Podemos meter asambleístas y esos asambleístas tendrían que trabajar por un Estado Plurinacional y el 2019 llegaríamos al poder para transformar un Estado Colonial en un Estado Plurinacional” "Quispe: No creo que lleguemos al poder este 2014". Erbol Digital. 2013-11-04. Retrieved 2013-11-29. 
  23. ^ "CIDOB y CONAMAQ pactan ir juntas a las elecciones". Erbol Digital. 2013-11-27. Retrieved 2013-11-29. 
  24. ^ Cuiza, Paulo (2014-06-17). "Demócratas y UN sellan alianza electoral y lanzan el binomio Samuel Doria Medina - Ernesto Suárez Sattori - La Razón". La Razón. Retrieved 2014-06-19. 
  25. ^ "7 agrupaciones políticas buscan alianza electoral". Los Tiempos. 2014-06-19. Retrieved 2014-06-19. 
  26. ^ http://www.hoybolivia.com/Blog.php?IdBlog=39669&tit=%BFpor_que_evo_es_primero_en_las_encuestas?