Cardiff North (UK Parliament constituency)

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Not to be confused with Cardiff North (Assembly constituency).

Coordinates: 51°31′01″N 3°12′11″W / 51.517°N 3.203°W / 51.517; -3.203

Cardiff North
Borough constituency
for the House of Commons
Outline map
Boundary of Cardiff North in Wales.
Preserved county South Glamorgan
Electorate 67,194 (December 2010)[1]
Current constituency
Created 1950
Member of Parliament Jonathan Evans (Conservative)
Number of members One
Overlaps
Welsh Assembly South Wales Central
European Parliament constituency Wales

Cardiff North (Welsh: Gogledd Caerdydd) is a borough constituency in the city of Cardiff. It returns one Member of Parliament (MP) to the House of Commons of the Parliament of the United Kingdom, elected by the first past the post voting system.

History[edit]

This seat is the residential quarter of Wales' capital. It normally elects Conservative MPs but Labour has won in their better election performances. A traditional Tory section of northern Cardiff, over half of northern Cardiff consists of owner-occupied housing with a higher number of a middle class population than other sections, the Conservatives have recovered from the low points of the mid-1990s, and now hold the majority of the council seats forming the constituency (13, against five Liberal Democrats, three independents and no Labour). Success in the 2004 local elections was not repeated in the 2005 general election, with Labour's Julie Morgan retaining the seat with a reduced majority.

Nick Robinson profiled the constituency as part of the BBC's build-up to the 2010 general election,[2] saying:

"Labour's support here slumped from over 50% of the vote in 1997 to 39% at the last election when, it's worth remembering, Labour won a third term with the lowest-ever vote share obtained by a governing party. However, the Tories failed to gain from this decline, picking up just 227 votes in those eight years. Thanks to a lower turnout, their vote share crept up from 33.7% to 36.5%. The reason? Voters who deserted Labour switched, in the main, to the Lib Dems - even though they are outsiders in this seat with just under 19% of the vote.

"The Tories are hopeful of winning the seat, having topped the Euro poll not just here but in Wales as a whole. They have 13 councillors in this constituency as against Labour's none and the Lib Dems' five - even though in Cardiff as a whole, the Lib Dems control the city council.

"Labour hopes depend on stressing the independence and hard work of the local MP - Julie (wife of Rhodri) Morgan - and persuading those Lib Dems not to switch to the Tories."

In the event Julie Morgan once again stood for Labour in 2010 to try to retain the seat. The Conservatives chose Jonathan Evans MEP to stand for them, who had previously been the MP for Brecon and Radnor. Ladbrokes had forecast that Cardiff North had an 80% chance of becoming Conservative. Evans won, but only by 194 votes.

Boundaries[edit]

1955-1974: The county borough of Cardiff wards of Cathays, Central, Gabalfa, Penylan, and Plasnewydd.

1974-1983: The county borough of Cardiff wards of Cathays, Central, Penylan, and Plasnewydd.

1983-2010: The City of Cardiff wards of Gabalfa, Heath, Lisvane and St Mellons, Llandaff North, Llanishen, Rhiwbina, and Whitchurch and Tongwynlais.

2010-present: The Cardiff electoral divisions of Gabalfa, Heath, Lisvane, Llandaff North, Llanishen, Pontprennau/Old St Mellons, Rhiwbina, and Whitchurch and Tongwynlais.

Members of Parliament[edit]

Election Member[3] Party
1950 David Llewellyn Conservative
1959 Donald Box Conservative
1966 Ted Rowlands Labour
1970 Michael Roberts Conservative
Feb 1974 Ian Grist Conservative
1983 Gwilym Jones Conservative
1997 Julie Morgan Labour
2010 Jonathan Evans Conservative

Elections[edit]

Elections in the 2010s[edit]

General Election 2015: Cardiff North
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Craig Williams
Labour Mari Williams
General Election 2010: Cardiff North[4][5]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Jonathan Evans 17,860 37.5 +1.0
Labour Julie Morgan 17,666 37.1 −1.9
Liberal Democrat John Dixon 8,724 18.3 −0.4
Plaid Cymru Llywelyn Rhys 1,588 3.3 −0.9
UKIP Lawrence Gwynn 1,130 2.4 +1.2
Green Christopher von Ruhland 362 0.8 +0.8
Christian Derek Thomson 300 0.6 +0.6
Majority 194 0.4
Turnout 47,630 72.7 +2.2
Conservative gain from Labour Swing +1.5

Elections in the 2000s[edit]

In the 2005 election, Julie Morgan was re-elected with a reduced majority. Catherine Taylor-Dawson of the Vote For Yourself Rainbow Dream Ticket party scored the lowest result (one vote) of any constituency in this general election.

General Election 2005: Cardiff North
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Julie Morgan 17,707 39.0 −6.9
Conservative Jonathan Morgan 16,561 36.5 +4.9
Liberal Democrat John Dixon 8,483 18.7 +3.4
Plaid Cymru John Rowlands 1,936 4.3 −1.4
UKIP Don Hulston 534 1.2 −0.2
Forward Wales Alison Hobbs 138 0.3 +0.3
Rainbow Dream Ticket Catherine Taylor-Dawson 1 0.0 0.0
Majority 1,146 2.5
Turnout 45,360 70.5 +1.5
Labour hold Swing −5.9
General Election 2001: Cardiff North
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Julie Morgan 19,845 45.9 −4.6
Conservative Alastair Watson 13,680 31.6 −2.0
Liberal Democrat John Dixon 6,631 15.3 +4.4
Plaid Cymru Sion Jobbins 2,471 5.7 +3.2
UKIP Don Hulston 613 1.4 N/A
Majority 6,165 14.3
Turnout 43,240 69.0 −11.2
Labour hold Swing

Elections in the 1990s[edit]

General Election 1997: Cardiff North
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Julie Morgan 24,460 50.4 +11.5
Conservative Gwilym Jones 16,334 33.7 −11.5
Liberal Democrat Robyn Rowland 5,294 10.9 −2.7
Plaid Cymru Colin Palfrey 1,201 2.5 +0.6
Referendum Party Edward J. Litchfield 1,199 2.5 N/A
Majority 8,126 16.8
Turnout 48,488 80.2
Labour gain from Conservative Swing
General Election 1992: Cardiff North[6]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Gwilym Jones 21,547 45.1 −0.1
Labour Julie Morgan 18,578 38.9 +12.2
Liberal Democrat Mrs Eve Warlow 6,487 13.6 −12.9
Plaid Cymru Mrs Eluned M. Bush 916. 1.9 +0.4
BNP John H Morse 121 0.3 N/A
Natural Law David L. Palmer 86 0.2 N/A
Majority 2,969 6.2 −12.4
Turnout 47,735 84.1 +3.1
Conservative hold Swing −6.2

Elections in the 1980s[edit]

General Election 1987: Cardiff North
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Gwilym Jones 20,061 45.28
Labour SH Tarbet 11,827 26.69
Social Democrat AW Jeremy 11,725 26.46
Plaid Cymru EM Bush 692 1.56
Majority 8,234 18.58
Turnout 80.99
Conservative hold Swing
General Election 1983: Cardiff North
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Gwilym Jones 19,433 47.11
Social Democrat AW Jeremy 12,585 30.51
Labour J Hutt 8,256 20.02
Plaid Cymru D Huws 974 2.36
Majority 6,848 16.60
Turnout 77.28
Conservative hold Swing

Elections in the 1970s[edit]

General Election 1979: Cardiff North
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Ian Grist 17,181 47.31
Labour MD Petrou 13,133 36.16
Liberal MJ German 4,921 13.55
Plaid Cymru OJ Thomas 1,081 2.98
Majority 4,048 11.15
Turnout 75.70
Conservative hold Swing
General Election October 1974: Cardiff North
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Ian Grist 13,480 41.93
Labour J Collins 11,479 35.70
Liberal ME German 5,728 17.82
Plaid Cymru P Richards 1,464 4.55
Majority 2,001 6.22
Turnout 73.31
Conservative hold Swing
General Election February 1974: Cardiff North
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Ian Grist 14,659 42.88
Labour J Collins 10,806 31.61
Liberal TAD Thomas 7,139 20.88
Plaid Cymru P Richards 1,586 4.64
Majority 3,853 11.27
Turnout 78.58
Conservative hold Swing
General Election 1970: Cardiff North
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Michael Roberts 21,983 46.95
Labour Ted Rowlands 20,207 43.16
Liberal HM O'Brien 2,701 5.77
Plaid Cymru BM Edwards 1,927 4.12
Majority 1,776 3.79
Turnout 76.58
Conservative gain from Labour Swing

Elections in the 1960s[edit]

General Election 1966: Cardiff North
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Ted Rowlands 23,669 50.72
Conservative Donald Box 22,997 49.28
Majority 672 1.44
Turnout 78.97
Labour gain from Conservative Swing
General Election 1964: Cardiff North
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Donald Box 21,837 44.64
Labour JA Reynolds 18,215 37.24
Liberal DG Rees 7,806 15.96
Plaid Cymru EP Roberts 1,058 2.16
Majority 3,622 7.40
Turnout 80.68
Conservative hold Swing

Elections in the 1950s[edit]

General Election 1959: Cardiff North
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Donald Box 28,737 57.76
Labour GS Viner 18,054 36.29
Plaid Cymru EP Roberts 2,553 5.13
Independent SG Worth 408 0.82
Majority 10,683 21.47
Turnout 82.94
Conservative hold Swing
General Election 1955: Cardiff North
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative David Llewellyn 29,409 59.25
Labour Leo Abse 20,224 40.75
Majority 9,185 18.51
Turnout 80.90
Conservative hold Swing
General Election 1951: Cardiff North
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative David Llewellyn 29,408 56.55
Labour J Evans 22,600 43.45
Majority 6,808 13.09
Turnout 85.59
Conservative hold Swing
General Election 1950: Cardiff North
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative David Llewellyn 23,988 46.96
Labour W Howlett 21,081 41.27
Liberal DA Jones 6,017 11.78
Majority 2,907 5.69
Turnout 84.38
Conservative hold Swing

See also[edit]

Notes and references[edit]

  1. ^ "Beyond 20/20 WDS - Table view". 2011 Electorate Figures. StatsWales. 1 December 2010. Retrieved 13 March 2011. 
  2. ^ Nick Robinson's Newslog "Taking The Pulse: Cardiff"
  3. ^ Leigh Rayment's Historical List of MPs – Constituencies beginning with "C" (part 2)[self-published source][better source needed]
  4. ^ Cardiff North Cardiff County Council - candidates Cardiff North
  5. ^ Cardiff North BBC Election - Cardiff North
  6. ^ "Politics Resources". Election 1992. Politics Resources. 9 April 1992. Retrieved 2010-12-06.