1700 Cascadia earthquake
The 1700 Cascadia earthquake occurred along the Cascadia subduction zone on January 26 with an estimated moment magnitude of 8.7–9.2. The megathrust earthquake involved the Juan de Fuca Plate that underlies the Pacific Ocean, from mid-Vancouver Island in British Columbia, Canada, south along the Pacific Northwest coast as far as northern California, USA. The length of the fault rupture was about 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) with an average slip of 20 meters (66 ft).
Evidence of the earthquake
The evidence suggests that it took place at about 21:00 on January 26, 1700 (NS). Although there were no written records in the region at the time, the earthquake's precise time is nevertheless known from Japanese records of a tsunami that has not been tied to any other Pacific Rim earthquake. The most important clue linking the tsunami in Japan and the earthquake in the Pacific Northwest comes from studies of tree rings (dendrochronology), which show that red cedar trees killed by lowering of coastal forests into the tidal zone by the earthquake have outermost growth rings that formed in 1699, the last growing season before the tsunami. Local Indigenous American oral traditions describing a large quake also exist, although these do not specify the date. There are many areas in the Pacific Northwest with drowned groves of trees that also show evidence of the earthquake.
The geological record reveals that "great earthquakes" (those with moment magnitude 8 or higher) occur in the Cascadia subduction zone about every 500 years on average, often accompanied by tsunamis. There is evidence of at least 13 events at intervals from about 300 to 900 years with an average of 570–590 years. Previous earthquakes are estimated to have occurred in 1310 AD, 810 AD, 400 AD, 170 BC and 600 BC.
As seen in the 1700 quake, the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake, and the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami, subduction zone earthquakes can cause large tsunamis, and many coastal areas in the region have prepared tsunami evacuation plans in anticipation of a possible future Cascadia earthquake. However, the major nearby cities, notably Seattle, Portland, Vancouver, Victoria, and Tacoma, which are located on inland waterways rather than on the coast, would be sheltered from the full brunt of a tsunami. These cities do have many vulnerable structures, especially bridges and unreinforced brick buildings; consequently, most of the damage to the cities would probably be from the earthquake itself. One expert asserts that buildings in Seattle are vastly inadequate even to withstand an earthquake of the size of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, much less the much greater one that may well occur.
Recent findings conclude that the Cascadia subduction zone is more complex and volatile than previously believed. In 2010 geologists predicted a 37 percent chance of an M8.2+ event within 50 years, and a 10 to 15 percent chance that the entire Cascadia subduction zone will rupture with an M9+ event within the same time frame. Geologists have also determined the Pacific Northwest is not prepared for such a colossal quake. The tsunami produced could reach heights of 80 to 100 feet (24 to 30 m).
In 2004, a study conducted by the Geological Society of America analyzed the potential for relative mean sea level rise (cause by subsidence) along the Cascadia subduction zone. It postulated, that cities on the West coast of Vancouver Island (e.g. Tofino and Ucluelet), are at risk for a 1-2m subsidence, relative to mean sea level.
Some other subduction zones have such earthquakes every 100 to 200 years; the longer interval results from slower plate motions. The rate of convergence between the Juan de Fuca Plate and the North American Plate is 60 millimetres (2.4 in) per year.
Similar megathrust earthquakes
Other megathrust earthquakes are the slightly more powerful 1964 Alaskan Good Friday Earthquake measured at moment magnitude 9.2, the 1960 Great Chilean Earthquake measured at 9.5, the Kamchatka earthquakes of 1737 (est. mag. 8.3) and 1952 (measured at 9.0), the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake at 9.1, the 2010 Chile earthquake at 8.8, and the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake at 9.0.
- 1949 Queen Charlotte Islands earthquake
- Geology of the Pacific Northwest
- List of earthquakes
- List of earthquakes in Canada
- List of earthquakes and tsunamis in the United States
- "USGS Scientist Shows Evidence for 300-Year-Old Tsunami to Participants in International Tsunami Training Institute". Archived from the original on 11 May 2008. Retrieved 2008-05-06.
- "The Orphan Tsunami of 1700—Japanese Clues to a Parent Earthquake in North America". Retrieved 2008-05-06. USGS Professional Paper 1707
- Hill, Richard L. (2002-05-15). "Great Cascadia Earthquake Penrose Conference". The Oregonian. Archived from the original on 2008-10-24.
- Witter, Robert C.; Kelsey, Harvey M.; Hemphill-Haley, Eileen (October 2003). "Great Cascadia earthquakes and tsunamis of the past 6700 years, Coquille River estuary, southern coastal Oregon". Geological Society of America Bulletin (The Geological Society of America) 115 (10): 1289–1306. doi:10.1130/b25189.1. Retrieved 5 February 2012.
- Peter Yanev. "Shake, Rattle, Seattle." The New York Times March 27 2010 p. WK11
- "Odds Are 1-In-3 That A Huge Quake Will Hit Northwest In Next 50 Years". Archived from the original on 27 May 2010. Retrieved 2010-05-24.
- "Perilous Situation". The Oregonian. 2009-04-19. Archived from the original on 23 April 2009. Retrieved 2009-05-12.
- "Coseismic subsidence in the 1700 great Cascadia earthquake: Coastal estimates versus elastic dislocation models"
- Kate Potter (September 2007). "The Big One: Understanding Why The Big Earthquake Is Predicted For Vancouver". The Science Creative Quarterly. Archived from the original on 27 May 2009. Retrieved 2009-05-18.
- Historic Earthquakes — United States Geological Survey
- Giant earthquakes beneath Canada's West coast — Natural Resources Canada
- Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquakes: A magnitude 9.0 earthquake scenario — The Cascadia Region Earthquake Workgroup 2005
Native and Japanese accounts
- Native American Stories expand history — Pacific Northwest Seismic Network
- Native American Legends of Tsunamis in Pacific NW — United States Geological Survey
- Fault slip and seismic moment of the 1700 Cascadia earthquake inferred from Japanese tsunami descriptions — Journal of Geophysical Research
- Japanese Shipwreck Adds To Evidence Of Great Cascadia Earthquake In 1700 — Science Daily
- Surviving a Tsunami—Lessons from Chile, Hawaii, and Japan — United States Geological Survey
- Big earthquake coming sooner than we thought, Oregon geologist says — The Oregonian