Colombian presidential election, 2014

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Colombian presidential election, 2014
Colombia
2010 ←
May 25, 2014
→ 2018

  Santos Calderon Juam M.jpg Oscar Ivan Taller Democratico Bucaramanga 2011.jpg
Nominee Juan Manuel Santos Óscar Iván Zuluaga
Party Party of the U Democratic Center (Colombia)
Popular vote 7,816,986 6,905,001
Percentage 50.95% 45.00%

President before election

Juan Manuel Santos
Party of the U

Elected President

Juan Manuel Santos
Party of the U

Coat of arms of Colombia.svg
This article is part of a series on the
politics and government of
Colombia
Constitution

The Colombian presidential election of 2014 was held on May 25, 2014.[1] Since no candidate received 50% of the vote in the first round, a run-off between the two candidates with the most votes took place three weeks later on June 15, 2014.[2] According to the official figures released by the National Registry office (Registraduría Nacional), as of May 22, 2014 (the cut-off date to register) 32,975,158 Colombians were registered and entitled to vote in the 2014 presidential election, including 545,976 Colombians resident abroad.[3][4] Incumbent president Juan Manuel Santos was allowed to run for a second consecutive term.[5] In the first round, Santos and Óscar Iván Zuluaga of the Democratic Center (Centro Democrático) were the two highest-polling candidates and were the contestants in the June 15 run-off.[6][7] In the second round, Santos was re-elected president, gaining 50.95% of the vote compared with 45.00% for Zuluaga.[8]

Candidates[edit]

By law the incumbent president Juan Manuel Santos had to declare before November 25, 2013 (six months before the election date) whether he would stand again for president. There had been speculation that he would not seek reelection: he had come under strong criticism during his first term for not continuing with the strong anti-terrorist measures of his predecessor Álvaro Uribe and for opening peace talks with the FARC guerrilla group, which drew fierce criticism from the still-popular Uribe and a large section of the public, resulting in low popularity ratings. Although his governing National Unity coalition still supported Santos in his reeelction bid, there was speculation that other people may stand in his place, such as the Radical Change leader and experienced minister Germán Vargas Lleras, Vice President Angelino Garzón, and the retired head of the police force, General Oscar Naranjo. However, on November 20 Santos publicly declared his intention to stand for election again, citing a successful conclusion to the peace talks as one of the main factors for seeking a second term in office.[9][10][11] His candidacy was supported unopposed by all three parties of the governing National Unity coalition: his own Social Party of National Unity, commonly known as "Party of the U"; the Colombian Liberal Party; and Radical Change. The following day Garzón said he would not seek reelection as Vice President in 2014.[9][12] On February 24, 2014 Santos confirmed that Vargas Lleras would be his running mate for the 2014 election.[13][14]

Unhappy with Santos' more conciliatory approach to the FARC, Álvaro Uribe had left the Party of the U to form the Democratic Center movement in January 2013 along with his former vicepresident Francisco Santos (cousin of president Juan Manuel Santos) and other close allies from the Party of the U. The Democratic Center's convention on October 25–26, 2013 chose economist and ex-minister Óscar Iván Zuluaga as its candidate for the presidential elections, ahead of Francisco Santos and Carlos Holmes Trujillo.[15][16] On February 28, 2014 Trujillo was named as Zuluaga's vicepresidencial running mate.[17][18]

The Colombian Conservative Party overwhelmingly chose Marta Lucía Ramírez to be its presidential candidate at its convention on January 26, 2014. Ramírez polled 1047 votes from the delegates, comfortably ahead of the other contenders Pablo Victoria with 138 votes and Álvaro Leyva with 84 votes. The convention was a fraught affair, with heated debate between some delegates arguing that the party should support the National Unity coalition and reelection of President Santos, and others who were in favour of the party fielding their own candidate.[19][20] Ramírez was a defence minister in Álvaro Uribe's government, but left the Party of the U after Santos' election and rejoined the Conservative Party where she had begun her political career, becoming one of Santos' most vocal critics.

The main socialist opposition party, the Alternative Democratic Pole (PDA), had been split by infighting in the four years since the previous election. Its 2010 election candidate Gustavo Petro had acrimoniously left the party along with his followers after accusing the PDA's Samuel Moreno, then Mayor of Bogota, of corruption,[21] a charge of which Moreno was later found guilty, and removed from his position and jailed. Petro formed the Progressives Movement (Movimiento Progresistas) in 2011 and successfully ran for Mayor of Bogota himself. Another faction of the PDA left to form the Patriotic Course (Marcha Patriótica) movement. The PDA was, however, the first party to confirm its candidate for the 2014 election, choosing its president and former caretaker Mayor of Bogotá Clara López Obregón at its third national congress on November 9, 2012.[22][23]

The Green Party had also suffered serious divisions since its surprise second place in the 2010 election. The defeated 2010 presidential candidate Antanas Mockus had resigned from the Green Party in June 2011, opposed to the decision to accept Álvaro Uribe's support for the party's Bogotá mayoral candidate Enrique Peñalosa.[24][25] On September 25, 2013, after a year of negotiations, the Fourth National Congress of the Green Party confirmed a union with the Progressives Movement of Bogotá mayor Gustavo Petro, with the new name Green Alliance.[26][27] This new political alliance decided that its candidate for the 2014 elections would be chosen by a national vote on March 9, 2014, the same day as the parliamentary elections. On November 21, 2013 the Green Alliance confirmed that there were six pre-candidates for the position: former Bogotá mayor Enrique Peñalosa, senators John Sudarsky and Camilo Romero, ex-presidential candidate and former FARC hostage Ingrid Betancourt, the Progressives Movement spokesman Antonio Navarro, and indigenous leader Feliciano Valencia.[28][29] Betancourt, Navarro and Valencia failed to reach the party's "10% recognition amongst Colombians" requirement to stand as a candidate, leaving Peñalosa, Sudarsky and Romero as the three remaining potential candidates.[30] In the election on March 9, 2014 Enrique Peñalosa was elected as the Green Alliance's presidential candidate with 48% of the vote, comfortably ahead of Romero (17%) and Sudarsky (8%).[31] On March 18, 2014 Peñalosa announced that his running mate would be Isabel Segovía, a former deputy minister of education in the Uribe government.[32]

The far-left Patriotic Union party chose its former president Aída Abella to be its presidential candidate at its fifth national congress on November 16, 2013. Abella had just returned from 17 years in exile in Switzerland after fleeing Colombia in 1996 following an attempt on her life.[33] However, the poor showing of the Patriotic Union in the parliamentary elections (where they failed to win a seat in either house of Congress) led to Abella abandoning her presidential campaign and instead agreeing to unite the Patriotic Front with the Alternative Democratic Pole as a single left-wing opposition alliance, with Abella becoming López's running mate for the presidential election.[34]

The following table shows the confirmed candidates, and the political parties to which they belong:

Candidate Date of candidature Alliance Party
Juan Manuel Santos November 20, 2013
National Unity
Social Party of National Unity ("Party of the U")
Colombian Liberal Party
Radical Change
Clara López Obregón November 9, 2012
Alternative Democratic Pole
Patriotic Union
Óscar Iván Zuluaga October 26, 2013
Democratic Center
Marta Lucía Ramírez January 26, 2014
Colombian Conservative Party
Enrique Peñalosa March 9, 2014 Green Alliance Green Party
Progressives Movement

Opinion polls[edit]

First round[edit]

The following table shows the results of opinion polls conducted from November 2013, when most of the presidential candidates had been confirmed, up to May 15, 2014. The table does not include the votes in the earliest polls for potential candidates who subsequently did not stand for election. The two highest scoring candidates in each poll (who would hypothetically go through to the second round of voting) are highlighted, except for the Centro Nacional de Consultoría poll of Jan 17–Feb 7, 2014, where Santos' score of 51% would have been enough to win in the first round.

A notable feature of the early polls was the high percentage of people intending to cast a blank vote (voto en blanco), usually between 20% and 30%. This reflected the widespread dissatisfaction among the Colombian public with all the candidates and the political system in general. After the parliamentary elections and the election of Peñalosa as candidate for the Green Alliance, both of which occurred on March 9, 2014, the polls showed a sharp drop in the percentage of people intending to cast a blank vote.

Date(s) conducted Polling organisation/client Sample size Candidate Blank vote Don't know/No response Margin of error
J.M. Santos O.I. Zuluaga E. Peñalosa C. López M.L. Ramírez A. Abella
Nov 1–6 2013 Invamer–Gallup Colombia/Caracol Televisión, Blu Radio & major newspapers 713 28.0% 14.6% 8.7% 9.3% 5.7% 31.9% 1.9% 3.7%
Nov 21–25 2013 Datexco/El Tiempo & W Radio 1200 36.1% 11.9% 6.2% 6.3% 1.5% 0.9% 20.3% 11.0% 2.83%
Nov 22 2013 Centro Nacional de Consultoría/CM& 970 41% 13% 10% 5% 4% 10% 17% 3.0%
Nov 22–23 2013 Ipsos–Napoleón Franco/RCN, La FM & Revista Semana 1225 26% 12% 4% 6% 2% 1% 21% 25% 2.8%
Nov 22–27 2013 Cifras y Conceptos/Caracol Radio & Red Más Noticias 2500 26% 13% 5% 8% 1% 35% 2.9%
Dec 2–9 2013 Invamer–Gallup Colombia/Caracol Televisión, Blu Radio & major newspapers 756 36.0% 14.2% 5.1% 6.2% 5.8% 0.9% 26.4% 3.7% 3.6%
Dec 3–6 2013 Datexco/El Tiempo & W Radio 1000 28% 10% 9% 8% 3% 1% unknown unknown 3.1%
Jan 16–20 2014 Cifras y Conceptos/Caracol Radio & Red Más Noticias 2500 26% 8% 9% 7% 1% 30% 19% 2.9%
Jan 17–Feb 7 2014 Centro Nacional de Consultoría/CM& 2378 51% 9% 12% 7% 8% 3% 10% unknown 2%
Jan 28–29 2014 Ipsos–Napoleón Franco/RCN, La FM & Revista Semana 1008 25% 8% 6% 6% 4% 1% 27% 23% 3.1%
Jan 29–31 2014 Datexco/El Tiempo & W Radio 1200 24.4% 7.6% 7.1% 6.0% 7.7% 0.7% 30.5% 14.1% 2.83%
Feb 5–9 2014 Invamer–Gallup Colombia/Caracol Televisión, Blu Radio & major newspapers 678 34.7% 10.8% 8.6% 4.5% 8.5% 1.6% 28.1% 3.2% 3.8%
Feb 10–15 2014 Cifras y Conceptos/Caracol Radio & Red Más Noticias 2500 26% 7% 6% 5% 4% 1% 30% 20% 2.9%
Feb 20–24 2014 Cifras y Conceptos/Caracol Radio & Red Más Noticias 2500 31% 8% 9% 7% 4% 1% 27% 12% 2.9%
Feb 21–24 2014 Ipsos–Napoleón Franco/RCN, La FM & Revista Semana 1201 28% 8% 5% 4% 3% 2% 24% 2.8%
Feb 25–28 2014 Datexco/El Tiempo y W Radio 1200 24.2% 6.3% 6.3% 4.9% 4.1% 3.6% 41.5% 8.6% 2.83%
Mar 13–14 2014 Datexco/El Tiempo y W Radio 1000 25.5% 14.6% 17.1% 10.7% 7.7% n/a 16.9% 7.5% 3.1%
Mar 15–17 2014 Centro Nacional de Consultoría/CM& 1113 30% 10% 16% 10% 9% n/a 8% 17% 3.0%
Mar 13–17 2014 Invamer–Gallup Colombia/Caracol Televisión, Blu Radio & major newspapers 1200 32.5% 15.6% 11.3% 8.6% 9.3% n/a 19.6% 2.7% 3.0%
Mar 14–16 2014 Ipsos–Napoleón Franco/RCN, La FM & Revista Semana 1233 24% 9% 8% 9% 4% n/a 19% 27% 2.8%
Mar 19–22 2014 Centro Nacional de Consultoría/CM& 1500 27% 13% 18% 10% 7% n/a 8% 17% 2.5%
Mar 21–25 2014 Cifras y Conceptos/Caracol Radio & Red Más Noticias 2500 23% 11% 13% 9% 5% n/a 26% 13% 2.9%
Apr 21–23 2014 Ipsos–Napoleón Franco/RCN, La FM & Revista Semana 1208 23% 15% 11% 6% 6% n/a 14% 22% 2.8%
Apr 21–24 2014 Datexco/El Tiempo y W Radio 1974 28.3% 16.0% 15.7% 9.6% 7.2% n/a 17.3% 5.8% 2.8%
Apr 23–27 2014 Invamer–Gallup Colombia/Caracol Televisión, Blu Radio & major newspapers 1200 32.0% 20.5% 10.1% 7.1% 11.2% n/a 15.9% 3.2% 3.0%
Apr 26–28 2014 Cifras y Conceptos/Caracol Radio & Red Más Noticias 2500 27% 19% 10% 10% 8% n/a 17% 8% 2.9%
May 6–10, 2014 Centro Nacional de Consultoría/CM& 1500 22% 24% 13% 9% 9% n/a 9% 14% 2.5%
May 9–12, 2014 Cifras y Conceptos/Caracol Radio & Red Más Noticias 2762 27.7% 23.9% 9.7% 10.0% 8.7% n/a 11.5% 8.5% 2.9%
May 10–13, 2014 Datexco/El Tiempo y W Radio 2392 27.7% 25.6% 9.7% 9.7% 9.4% n/a 15.0% 2.9% 2.8%
May 10–13, 2014 Invamer–Gallup Colombia/Caracol Televisión, Blu Radio & major newspapers 1184 29% 29.3% 10.6% 10.9% 14.4% n/a 5.8% unknown 3.0%
May 13–15, 2014 Ipsos–Napoleón Franco/RCN, La FM & Revista Semana 1799 28.5% 29.5% 9.4% 10.1% 9.7% n/a 12.8% unknown 3.4%

Second round[edit]

Date(s) conducted Polling organisation/client Sample size Candidate Blank vote Don't know/No response Margin of error
Juan Manuel Santos Óscar Iván Zuluaga
May 26–27, 2014 Centro Nacional de Consultoría/CM& 1996 45% 47% 8% n/a 2.2%
May 26–27, 2014 Cifras y Conceptos/Caracol Radio & Red Más Noticias 1672 38% 37% 15% 10% 2.9%
May 31–June 3, 2014 Invamer–Gallup Colombia/Caracol Televisión, Blu Radio & major newspapers 1200 47.7% 48.5% 3.7% n/a 3.0%
May 31–June 3, 2014 Cifras y Conceptos/Caracol Radio & Red Más Noticias 3215 43.4% 38.5% 11.7% 6.3% 2.9%
May 31–June 4, 2014 Datexco/El Tiempo & W Radio 1200 41.9% 37.7% 13.8% 5.8% 2.83%
June 2–4, 2014 Ipsos–Napoleón Franco/RCN, La FM & Revista Semana 1784 41% 49% 10% n/a 2.3%

Results[edit]

e • d Summary of the 25 May 2014 and 15 June 2014 Colombian presidential election results
Candidates – Parties First round Second round
Votes % Votes %
Juan Manuel SantosSocial Party of National Unity (Partido de «la U») 3,301,815 25.69 7,816,986 50.95
Óscar Iván Zuluaga - Democratic Center (Centro Democrático) 3,759,971 29.25 6,905,001 45.00
Marta Lucía RamírezColombian Conservative Party (Partido Conservador Colombiano) 1,995,698 15.52  
Clara López ObregónAlternative Democratic Pole (Polo Democrático Alternativo) 1,958,414 15.23
Enrique Peñalosa - Colombian Green Party (Partido Verde Colombiano) 1,065,142 8.28
Total votes for candidates 12,081,040 94.01 14,721,526 95.96
Blank votes 770,610 5.99 619,396 4.03
Total valid votes 12,851,650 97.24 15,341,383 97.12
Null votes 311,758 2.35 403,405 2.55
Unmarked ballots 52,994 0.40 50,152 0.31
Turnout 13,216,402 40.07% 15,794,940 47.89%
Source: Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil, Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil

References[edit]

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  2. ^ (Spanish) "Farc prevén continuar diálogos de paz durante proceso electoral". El Tiempo (Bogotá, Colombia). March 2, 2014. Retrieved March 3, 2014. 
  3. ^ (Spanish) "Comunicado de Prensa No. 0337 de 2014: Registraduría tiene lista toda la logística para que los colombianos elijan este domingo 25 de mayo al Presidente y Vicepresidente de la República". Registraduría Nacional de Estado Civil. May 22, 2014. Retrieved June 14, 2014. 
  4. ^ (Spanish) "Elecciones del domingo costarán cerca de $220 mil millones". El Tiempo (Bogotá, Colombia). May 21, 2014. Retrieved June 14, 2014. 
  5. ^ (Spanish) 'La U' pide que Juan Manuel Santos se lance a la reelección
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  24. ^ (Spanish) "Mockus deja a los verdes; Peñalosa lamenta perder su apoyo". Semana (Bogotá, Colombia). June 9, 2011. Retrieved March 1, 2014. 
  25. ^ (Spanish) "Mockus se fue y el Partido Verde se abre a alianzas". El Tiempo (Bogotá, Colombia). June 10, 2011. Retrieved March 1, 2014. 
  26. ^ (Spanish) "El nombre Alianza Verde divide a progresistas y a 'verdes'". El Tiempo (Bogotá, Colombia). September 26, 2013. Retrieved March 1, 2014. 
  27. ^ (Spanish) "Partido Verde y Progresistas sellarían alianza este miércoles". El Espectador (Bogotá, Colombia). September 25, 2013. Retrieved March 1, 2014. 
  28. ^ (Spanish) "Ingrid Betancourt será precandidata de la Alianza Verde". El Tiempo (Bogotá, Colombia). November 21, 2013. Retrieved March 1, 2014. 
  29. ^ (Spanish) "Alianza Verde inscribió a Ingrid Betancourt como precandidata presidencial". El Espectador (Bogotá, Colombia). November 21, 2013. Retrieved March 1, 2014. 
  30. ^ (Spanish) "'Verdes' irán a consulta para escoger candidato presidencial". El Tiempo (Bogotá, Colombia). January 30, 2014. Retrieved March 1, 2014. 
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  32. ^ (Spanish) "Isabel Segovia será fórmula vicepresidencial de Peñalosa". Semana (Bogotá, Colombia). March 18, 2014. Retrieved March 18, 2014. 
  33. ^ (Spanish) "Aída Abella candidata presidencial de Unión Patriótica". El Espectador (Bogotá, Colombia). November 16, 2013. Retrieved March 1, 2014. 
  34. ^ (Spanish) "Clara y Aída, la fórmula de la izquierda". Semana (Bogotá, Colombia). March 13, 2014. Retrieved March 18, 2014.