Deal or No Deal
|Deal or No Deal|
|Created by||Dick de Rijk|
|Country of origin||Netherlands|
|Running time||30–120 minutes (with commercials, varies depending on versions)|
|Original run||25 November 2000– present|
Deal or No Deal is the name of several closely related television game shows, the first of which (launching the format) was the Dutch Miljoenenjacht (Hunt for Millions) produced by Dutch producer Endemol. It is played with up to 26 cases (or, in some versions, boxes) containing certain sums of money. The player chooses a case or a box to knock an amount of money off the board.
The game revolves around the opening of a set of numbered briefcases, each of which contains a different prize (cash or otherwise). The contents (i.e., the values) of all of the cases are known at the start of the game, but the specific location of any prize is unknown. The contestant claims (or is assigned) a case to begin the game. The case's value is not revealed until the conclusion of the game.
The contestant then begins choosing cases that are to be removed from play. The amount inside each chosen case is immediately revealed; by process of elimination, the amount revealed cannot be inside the case the contestant initially claimed (or was assigned). Throughout the game, after a predetermined number of cases have been opened, the banker offers the contestant an amount of money and/or prizes to quit the game, the offer based roughly on the amounts remaining in play and the contestant's demeanor, the bank tries to 'buy' the contestant's case for a lower price than what's inside the case. The player then answers the titular question, choosing:
- "Deal", accepting the offer presented and ending the game, or
- "No Deal", rejecting the offer and continuing the game.
This process of removing cases and receiving offers continues, until either the player accepts an offer to 'deal', or all offers have been rejected and the values of all unselected cases are revealed. Should a player end the game by taking a deal, a pseudo-game is continued from that point to see how much the player could have won by remaining in the game. Depending on subsequent choices and offers, it is determined whether or not the contestant made a "good deal", i.e. won more than if the game were allowed to continue.
Since the range of possible values is known at the start of each game, how much the banker offers at any given point changes based on what values have been eliminated. To promote suspense and lengthen games, the banker's offer is usually less than the expected value dictated by probability theory, particularly early in the game. Generally, the offers early in the game are very low relative to the values still in play, but near the end of the game approach (or even exceed) the average of the remaining values.
Only a few people have ever won the top prize on any version of the show (see table below). For a contestant to win the top prize the player would have to select the case containing the top prize and reject every offer the banker makes during the game. The chances of a player selecting the top prize are reasonable (4–5% depending on how many amounts are in the game).
Deal or No Deal around the world
The first German version "Die Chance deines Lebens" hosted by Kai Pflaume did not have the case game as the final round (they played a trivia game instead), however this was the show the original "Deal or No Deal" version (the Dutch "Miljoenenjacht" hosted by Linda de Mol) was actually based on. Miljoenenjacht started in November 2000 and introduced the case game in December 2002 after a 15-month hiatus of the show. Véronique Landry is the only model to appear on more than one version of the show, on both the French and English Canadian versions. Howie Mandel, Héctor Sandarti, and Linda de Mol each have hosted multiple versions of the show: Mandel, with the American English and Canadian English versions, Sandarti with both the American Spanish and Mexican Spanish versions, and de Mol with both the Netherlands Dutch and German (in 2004) versions of the show. In the UK version Deal or no Deal helped relaunch Noel Edmonds' career.
Top prize winners
All amounts below the prizes are their equivalents in United States dollars at the time of their win.
|Country||Name(s)||Date||Amount won||Previous offer||Other amount||Notes|
|گنجینه/Ganjina||Mohammad Easa Sediqi||Prior to October 25, 2010||Af. 1,000,000
First top prize winner in Afghan history
|(unknown)||Prior to November 28, 2012||Af. 1,000,000
The banker first offered Af. 311,000, then Af. 342,000, then a chance to swap the briefcases. All were declined. Rebroadcast June 5, 2013.
|(unknown)||Prior to June 6, 2013||Af. 1,000,000
|The banker first offered Af. 263,300, then Af. 355,500. Both were declined. Rebroadcast June 6, 2013.|
|Deal or No Deal||Dean Cartechini||June 17, 2004||A$A200,000
|Anh Do (celebrity)||September 19, 2007||A$200,000
|Leanne Benbow||June 2, 2010||A$200,000
|Chris Doyle||August 23, 2011||A$200,000
|Tek It Or Leave It||Alisha Arnold||February 10, 2009||BZ$10,000
|Topa ou Não Topa||Paulo||April 2007||R$2,000,000
|Сделка или не Sdelka ili ne||Veneta Raykova (Венета Райкова)
|February 2006||75,000 BGN
|(unknown)||December 8, 2006||100,000 BGN
|Niki Kitaetsa (Ники Китаеца)
|September 18, 2007||100,000 BGN
|December 22, 2008||100,000 BGN
|January 23, 2012||100,000 BGN
|January 24, 2013||100,000 BGN
|ព្រម ឬមិនព្រម Prom Rer Min Prom||(Unknown)||February 2009||10,000,000 KHR
|(Unknown)||February 2009||10,000,000 KHR||(unknown)||750,000 KHR
|¡Allá Tú!||Mauricio Hermosilla||May 4, 2007||CL$10,000,000
|Farándula||August 29, 2007||CL$10,000,000
| لعبة الحياة
Lebet el Hayat
|Amal Mohammad||Prior to November 16, 2009||EGP250,000
|Sameh||Prior to April 15, 2010||EGP250,000
|Marwa Ali||Prior to September 3, 2010||EGP500,000
| ديل أور نو ديل: الإختيار
Deal or no deal: El Ikhtiyar
|Sibai Wahba||September 12, 2012||EGP250,000
|À prendre ou à laisser||Sabrina||November 29, 2005||€500,000
|The banker also offered €200,000 and €300,000;
it is rare for a contestant to have more than one offer after a single round
|Marie-Ange Franceschi||January 23, 2009||€500,000
|ვა-ბანკი Va-Bank||Rezo and Archil Arveladze (celebrities)||February 3, 2009||50,000 lari
|Deal||Gogo Kastranta||November 10, 2006||€200,000
Received €100,000, another half was received by a text winner
|Áll az alku||Sanyi||2006||50,000,000 Ft
|Árpinak||April 26, 2010||21,000,000 Ft
|Affari Tuoi||Roberto Pepi||February 4, 2004||€500,000
|Francesca Madeddu||December 16, 2004||€500,000
|Clarissa Meneghini||December 19, 2007||€500,000
|Danilo Anderlini||September 17, 2008||€500,000
|Francesca Cataldo||October 22, 2008||€500,000
|Roberto Caterina||November 23, 2008||€500,000
|Mara Ancelotti||January 1, 2009||€500,000
|Stefania Menegazzo||February 23, 2010||€500,000
|Gabriele Calvello||March 17, 2012||€1,000,000
The top prize was originally €500,000 as usual, but was doubled during the game when the player opened Pacco Matto (crazy box) and found Raddoppia (double).
|Mauro Ghiraldini||November 21, 2012||€500,000
|Patrizia Montalbano||January 25, 2013||€500,000
|Deal or No Deal Malta||Maria (Doris) Abela||October 17, 2008||€25,000
|Vas o No Vas||Elena||June 11, 2005||Mex$5,000,000
|Luis||December 6, 2005||Mex$1,000,000
|Laura||March 2, 2006||Mex$1,000,000
|Paty||June 3, 2006||Mex$1,000,000
|(English) Deal or No Deal Malaysia||Timothy Shim||March 2, 2008||RM100,000
Deal or No Deal
|Arno Woesthoff[note 1]||September 2, 2001||Fl10,000,000
|(none)||(none)||Biggest winner in worldwide game show history|
|Eelco Schumacher||April 2, 2009||€250,000
|Kapamilya, Deal or No Deal||Terry Lim Cua||December 29, 2006||P2,000,000
|Aiko Melendez and Candy Pangilinan (celebrities)||November 25, 2008||P1,000,000
|Christmas Edition (5 P1,000,000 cases)|
|Jhaphet Flordeliza||December 1, 2008||P1,000,000
|Arnel Pineda (celebrity)||December 11, 2008||P1,000,000
|Uzmi ili ostavi||Vidoje||October 19, 2007||RSD1,500,000
|Yes or No||Lee Chang-geun (이창근)||June 23, 2007||₩100,000,000
|¡Allá tú!||Gilbert||June 19, 2007||€600,000
|Received €300,000, another half was received by a text winner|
|María del Carmen Bonilla||July 25, 2011||€300,000
Who's the Winner
Topic: The Deal 孤注一擲
|JUNIOR (celebrity)||April 14, 2007||NT$1,500,000
|NT$1, NT$100, NT$10,000, NT$20,000 and NT$50,000
($0.03, $3.02, $302, $603 and $1,508)
|The host Jacky Wu, who also acted as the banker, decided to give the final offer with 6 out of 16 cases remaining.|
|دليلك ملك||Mohamed Mabrouk||March 22, 2006||TND300,000
Each winner shared the prize with an SMS participant
|Mohamed Bashir Menchari||November 13, 2006||TND500,000
|Marbrouk||September 13, 2007||TND1,000,000
|Var mısın? Yok musun?||Ülkühan Yılmaz||October 24, 2009||500,000TL
|Deal or No Deal||Laura Pearce||January 7, 2007||£250,000
|Alice Munday||March 12, 2009||£250,000
|Alice initially dealt at £17,500 but was dealt the Banker's Gamble when the 1p and £250,000 were remaining. She accepted the gamble going back into live play, she was then offered the swap, she declined and won £250,000.|
|Suzanne Mulholland||May 13, 2011||£250,000
|Suzanne also won an additional prize of a 2 week holiday in Florida as part of "Banker's Birthday" special. Swapped box after final offer.|
|Tegen Roberts||September 22, 2011||£250,000
|Tegen had the strongest board ever after round 3 to the end of the show, a staggering £560,250.60 was still in play after 10 boxes had been opened. She also had the distinction of having the 7th Biggest No Deal of £77,000.|
|Nong Nig Ham Nam||August 5, 2012||£250,000
|Patrick "Paddy" Roberts||August 12, 2013||£250,000
|First UK male top prize winner|
|Roop Singh[note 2]||February 12, 2014||£250,000
|Singh declined to buy Box 23 which contained the Double.|
|Deal or No Deal (primetime version)||Jessica Robinson||September 1, 2008||$1,000,000||$561,000||$200,000||Million Dollar Mission game (5 $1,000,000 cases)|
|Tomorrow Rodriguez||October 29, 2008||$1,000,000||$677,000||$300 and 2x $1,000,000||Million Dollar Mission game (9 $1,000,000 cases)|
|Đi tìm ẩn số||Lê Bình (celebrity)||October 9, 2011||100,000,000Đ
|Minh Trang||July 15, 2012||100,000,000Đ
- Arno Woesthoff was on Miljoenenjacht when the bonus round consisted of seven questions that could add up to 10,000,000 guilders (based on the German game show "Die Chance deines Lebens") instead of the case game, which is why there were no other amounts.
- Most recent top prize winner in the Deal or No Deal franchise to date
At the other end of the spectrum, in the UK edition broadcast on 7 December 2009, a contestant named Corinne opened her box to reveal (and thus win) 1p, having turned down first an offer of £88,000 and then an offer to swap boxes, which would have given her the top £250,000 prize. A similar event occurred on the U.S. version on August 25, 2008, where contestant Koshka Blackburn won $5,000 which was in her case after turning down the banker's offer of $530,000 and then the option to switch cases, which would've made her the first $1,000,000 winner. Also in the U.S. on September 22, 2006, Michelle Falco kept in $750,000 and $1,000,000 in play all the way to the end, she turned down the biggest offer of $880,000 and refused to switch her case, in her case was $750,000. She also would have been the first $1,000,000 winner had she switched cases. And again, in the U.S. on October 22, 2008, contestant Richie Bell won $1 which was in his case after rejecting the final offer of $416,000 and the option to switch cases, which would've made him the second $1,000,000 winner. Richie also won an additional $10,000 after completing the "Banker's Challenge" minigame, thus making his total winnings $10,001. Had he had switched, he would have won $1,010,000. Many other contestants around the world would have won the top prize if they had swapped their box/case.
Basis and antecedents
The game show has attracted attention from mathematicians, statisticians, and economists as a natural decision-making experiment. In 2008 a team of economists analyzed the decisions of people appearing in Dutch, German and U.S. episodes and found, among other things, that contestants are less risk-averse or even risk-seeking when they saw their expected winnings drop. They went so far as to say that the show, “almost appears to be an economics experiment rather than a TV show.” They found that contestants behave similarly in different versions of the show, despite large differences in the amounts at stake; amounts appear to be evaluated in relative terms, for example in proportion to the initial average, and not in terms of their absolute monetary value. The research received a great deal of media attention, appearing on the front page of The Wall Street Journal and being featured on National Public Radio. This work was built upon by de Roos and Sarafidis, who analysed the Australian version of the show and determined that the risk-taking behaviour of a number of contestants would be inconsistent within each game (i.e. their aversion to risk would change), depending on the state of play and relative risk aversion of their confidant on the show.
Australian Deal or No Deal contestants are selected "on the basis of being 'outgoing', but there is no screening of contestants on the basis of their risk preferences". It is thought that other versions may screen contestants for being amicable to risk-taking behaviour.
Despite its air of originality and huge international success—there are more than 60 versions worldwide—there have been, in fact, numerous antecedents to the current run of shows. The first was the It's in the Bag, a New Zealand radio game show invented by Selwyn Toogood which began in the 1950s and which ran for decades after it was later adapted for television (1970s–90s). The show popularized the catch-phrases, "By hokey," and "What will it be, customers--the money or the bag?" in New Zealand. Similarly, in the 1950s, the UK TV show Take Your Pick offered contestants the choice of taking a money offer or risking opening a box. Later, in the 1980s, The Bong Game, a radio call-in show created by UK’s Capital FM, tested contestants by offering them increasing returns in tandem with increasing risk.
Another long-running game show, Let's Make a Deal, involved contestants deciding whether or not to take offers based on what may or may not be behind a curtain/door or inside a box. Let's Make a Deal ran in the U.S. for nearly three decades from 1963 to 1991, during which time Monty Hall was the program's "Big Dealer," and has recently been revived with Wayne Brady as the Big Dealer. Also in the U.S., in the 1970s and 1980s, was a game show called Treasure Hunt, hosted by Geoff Edwards and produced by Chuck Barris's company, which featured a similar concept to Deal or No Deal. The show featured contestants selecting a treasure chest or box with surprises inside in the hope of winning large prizes or a cash jackpot. Both game shows, however, also featured worthless or nearly-worthless joke prizes, which Let's Make a Deal called "zonks" and which Treasure Hunt called "klunks." Deal or No Deal does not feature such joke prizes. Finally, from 1997 to 2003, Win Ben Stein's Money pitted contestants against an in-house adversary.
Algorithm used by "The Bank"
There are several theories concerning the algorithm that "The Bank" uses to determine the appropriate bank offer. Naturally, this is a secret held by the various publishers around the world, however a number of people have approximated the algorithm with various levels of accuracy. It is a common understanding that the Bank does not know the contents of the briefcase, and therefore the Monty Hall Problem does not apply to the probability calculations.
Statistical studies of the US version of the show were undertaken by Daniel Shifflet in 2011, and showed a linear regression of bank offers against expected value. In summary, Shifflet found that the bank would offer a percentage of the expected value of the remaining cases, and this percentage increased linearly from approximately 37% of EV at the first offer to approximately 84% of EV at the seventh offer. This version of the program also allowed players to 'hypothetically' play out the remainder of the game from the point where they accepted the bank's offer, and Shiffler noted that the hypothetical bank offers were significantly higher than real bank offers at equivalent points in the game.
Dave Gentile (with the assistance of Kevin Huculak) has decompiled the code used by the bank in two versions of NBC's browser game edition of the show, which is kept on his website. In the first edition (up to November 2007), the bank's offer was based on a fixed ratio of remaining cases, with different ratios applying for high-value and low-value cases. The ratios were also modified after each 'round' of the game. In the second edition (in operation circa March 2008), a random number element was included in the factors.
- Innovative Concepts in Entertainment developed and currently sells an arcade redemption adaptation of the show, replacing prize money with redemption tickets.
- The U.K. version of Deal or No Deal was converted into a mobile game by Gameloft and featured the same rules and format as the TV show. The game was so well-received that versions of it were developed for other countries as well. Its international success landed it on the top-sellers list.
- Almost all major formats of the game were converted into games for various gaming consoles, the PC, Macromedia Flash, and even a dedicated handheld made in China.
- Various online gambling and gaming sites, including the Game Show Network, have adapted the Deal or No Deal concept for their games.
- For articles for each of the national editions of the show, see Deal or No Deal (disambiguation)
- Game Theory Analysis of Deal Or No Deal
- List of television show franchises
- Dick de Rijk at the Internet Movie Database
- Formula for offers in the NBC online version of Deal or No Deal from the personal website of a former physics and finance student
- Knox, David (19 March 2014). "No Deal says Andrew O'Keefe". TV Tonight. TV Tonight. Retrieved 19 March 2014.
- (Spanish) Gana millones con 'Hay trato' (Earn millions on Have a Deal!), July 13, 2005
- Video on YouTube
- (German)"Deal or No Deal": Glücksspiel auf afghanisch ("Deal or No Deal": Gambling in Afghanistan), October 25, 2010
- Photo from the official Facebook page of Tolo TV, November 28, 2012
- Tek It or Leave It’s youngest player wins biggest prize, February 10, 2009
- (Bulgarian)Video on VBOX7
- (Bulgarian)Ники Китаеца спечели 100 000 лева (Niki Kitaetsa has won 100,000 leva), September 19, 2007
- (Bulgarian)18-годишен спечели 100 000 лв. в „Сделка или не” (18-year-old won 100,000 leva on Deal or No Deal)
- (Bulgarian)24-годишната Мариела Пепелджийска грабна голямата награда в "Сделка или не" (24-year-old Maria Pepeldzhiyska won the grand prize on Deal or No Deal), January 23, 2012
- (Bulgarian)27-годишният Искрен печели 100 000 от "Сделка или не" (27-year-old Iskren won 100,000 on Deal or No Deal), January 25, 2013
- Heng Piseth: Deal or No Deal becomes a famous TV show in Cambodia, March 19, 2009
- Video on YouTube
- Video on YouTube
- (French) A prendre ou à laisser : les 15/24 ans adorent les boites de TF1, January 26, 2009
- (Greek) Η ΧΡΥΣΗ ΝΙΚΗΤΡΙΑ ΤΟΥ DEAL, ΓΩΓΩ ΚΑΣΤΡΑΝΤΑ, ΤΙΝΑΞΕ ΤΗΝ ΜΠΑΝΚΑ ΤΟΥ DEAL, ΚΕΡΔΙΖΟΝΤΑΣ 200.000€, November 10, 2006
- Video on YouTube
- Video on YouTube
- (Italian) Striscia la Notizia - I tarocchi di Affari tuoi
- (Italian) Ho stravinto da Bonolis grazie a mia figlia, December 18, 2004
- (Italian) una cagliaritana i 500mila euro di “Affari tuoi”, December 17, 2004
- (Italian) Affari Tuoi, stasera vincita record di 500 mila euro, September 18, 2008
- (Italian) Affari Tuoi: Danilo Anderlini torna a Spoleto con 500mila euro, September 17, 2008
- (Italian) Una luinese ad "Affari tuoi" si porta a casa il pacco più pesante, October 23, 2008
- (Italian) Il Molise torna a sbancare "Affari tuoi" A Montagano 500 mila euro, November 23, 2008
- (Italian) Inizio anno con il botto per Affari Tuoi: concorrente vince 500mila euro, January 2, 2009
- (Italian) Giovane mamma di Campoformido vince 500 mila euro ad “Affari tuoi”, February 23, 2010
- (Italian) Rai1: vincita da sogno ad “Affari Tuoi”, 1 mln di euro in Puglia, March 18, 2012
- (Italian) Affari Tuoi: vinti 500mila euro da Mauro Ghiraldini, geometra 37enne, November 22, 2012
- (Italian) «Affari Tuoi», ingegnere vince 500 mila euro, January 25, 2013
- (Korean) 머니게임쇼서 ‘1억원 사나이'된 연출가, June 20, 2007
- (Spanish) ¡Mari se lleva 300.000 euros!, July 25, 2011
- (French) Dlilek Mlak : Le gagnant des 300 MD, March 23, 2006
- (French) Dlilek Mlak : Un gagnant des 500 000 dinars, November 13, 2006
- (French) Dlilek Mlak: Un gagnant de 1 million de dinars !, September 13, 2007
- (Vietnamese)Tám “sao” xông đất “Đi tìm ẩn số”, October 9, 2011
- Video on YouTube
- Post, Van den Assem, Baltussen, and Thaler (March 2008). "Deal or No Deal? Decision Making Under Risk in a Large-payoff Game Show". American Economic Review 98 (1). SSRN 636508.
- Quoted in William Poundstone, Priceless, Hill and Wang, 2010, p. 130
- Baltussen, Post, and Van den Assem (December 2007). Risky Choice and the Relative Size of Stakes. SSRN 989242.
- The Wall Street Journal, January 12, 2006.
- Economists Learn from Game Show 'Deal or No Deal' from the NPR website. March 3, 2006
- de Roos, Nicolas; Sarafidis, Yianis (Sep–Oct 2010). "Decision making under risk in Deal or No Deal". Journal of Applied Econometrics 25 (6): 987–1027.
- Comment by Jones, George (March 7, 2006) at: Barzeski, Eric (December 20, 2005). "Deal or No Deal Algorithm". NSLog( );. Retrieved April 23, 2013.
- Shifflet, Daniel R. (Spring 2011). "Is Deal or No Deal Cheating Its Contestants?". Ohio Journal of School Mathematics (63): 5–10.
- ICE games[dead link]
- "Top 50 Mobile Game Downloads in the UK". 2007-1-27. Mobicritic.com. Retrieved 2008-11-06.
- "Non-Stop International Success for Gameloft's 'Deal or No Deal'. 2008-4-07. FindLaw.com. Retrieved 2008-11-06.
- Deal or No Deal Slots, GSN Games
- Playing Deal or No Deal Online. Deal or No Deal Online. Retrieved January 31, 2014.
|Wikimedia Commons has media related to Deal or No Deal.|
- Deal or No Deal at the Internet Movie Database
- Officially licensed game of Deal or No Deal (UK Version)
- NBC game
- Official Italian Affari Tuoi (Deal or No Deal) website
- Official United Kingdom Deal Or No Deal website
- Official Quebec Le Banquier (Deal or No Deal) website
- Official German Deal Or No Deal website
- Official U.S. Deal or No Deal version website
- Deal or no Deal game (UK) fansite
- Deal or No Deal blog UK
- Deal or No Deal global fansite