Ding Hai effect
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| Ding Hai effect | |||||||||||
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| Traditional Chinese | 丁蟹效應 | ||||||||||
| Simplified Chinese | 丁蟹效應 | ||||||||||
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| Chiu Koon effect | |||||||||||
| Traditional Chinese | 秋官效應 | ||||||||||
| Simplified Chinese | 秋官效應 | ||||||||||
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The Ding Hai effect , Adam Cheng effect or Qiuguan effect is a peculiar stock market phenomenon.[1] The phenomenon is observed that whenever Hong Kong actor Adam Cheng stars in a new television show, there is a sudden and unexplained drop in the stock market.[2] This is still a popular topic amongst stock brokers, years after the drama series Greed of Man was broadcast in Hong Kong in October 1992. The effect is named after Ding Hai (丁蟹), the main antagonist of the show, played by Cheng himself.
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[edit] History
In 1992 TVB aired the drama The Greed of Man, which featured some of the most popular actors and actresses of the time. The drama centred heavily around the stock market, and the schemes and plots of those who struck it rich in the market. Cheng, who played Ding Hai in the drama, made an immense fortune with his four sons by selling short derivatives and stocks during a bear market. Many people went broke, but the Ding family became richer and richer until an eventual defeat by the Fong family nemesis.[3]
[edit] Occurrences
Initially, the Ding Hai effect occurred whenever the TVB drama series Greed of Man or its remake, Divine Retribution (世紀之戰), made by ATV was broadcasted. Later, it was also observed that the effect occurs whenever a new drama show that Cheng stars in was aired.
[edit] 1990s
- October 1992: The drama series Greed of Man made its debut on TVB. During the time it was broadcasted, the Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dropped 598 to 600 points[2][4]
- November 1994: Instinct (笑看風雲) made its debut on TVB. The Heng Sang Index fell more than 2,000 points.[2]
- September 1996: Once Upon a Time in Shanghai (新上海灘) premiered on TVB. The Hang Seng Index fell 300 points.[2]
- June 1997: Cold Blood Warm Heart (天地男兒) made its debut on TVB. The Hang Seng Index accumulated 735 points in losses.[2]
- December 1997: Legend of Yung Ching (江湖奇俠傳) caused a fall of 1.4% in the Hang Seng Index.[5]
- June 1999, Lord of Imprisonment (神劍萬里追) caused a fall of 6.5% in the Hang Seng Index.[5]
[edit] 2000s
- September 2000: A loose re-make of The Greed of Man, Divine Retribution (世紀之戰), aired on ATV. Due to the Tech stock bubble at the time, the Hang Seng Index fell an accumulated 1,715 points, with other stock markets around the world falling as a result also.[2]
- March 2004: Blade Heart (血薦軒轅) premiered in Hong Kong, causing the Hang Seng Index to fall 550 points over 3 days due to high oil prices and instabilities in the Middle East.[2]
- October 2004: The Conqueror's Story (楚漢驕雄) premiered in Hong Kong, causing a 198-point drop in the Heng Seng Index on the day of the premiere.[2]
- March 2005: The Prince's Shadow (御用閒人) broadcast of the first episode, the hang seng dropped 100 points by noon, then rose back 90 points by the end of the day.[6]
- July 2007: Return Home (香港傳奇-榮歸) broadcasted and caused the market to fall 1,165 points.[7]
- March 30, 2009: The King of Snooker (桌球天王) premiered in Hong Kong. The Heng Seng Index fell 663.17 points.[2]
[edit] Exceptions
There were a few times when the Ding Hai effect did not occur. In April 2006 when Bar Bender (潮爆大狀) caused a sudden rise in the Hang Seng index by 258 points.[2] Other big increases include the broadcast of The Conqueror's Story (楚漢驕雄), Legend of Chor Lau Heung (香帥傳奇), the Driving Power (非常外父).[5]
[edit] Conclusion
The Ding Hai effect has led to Adam Cheng attracting much press attention. Now, whenever a new show starring Adam Cheng is about to be broadcast, some stockbrokers and investors in Hong Kong become wary, even anticipating a drop in the market.
While some investors have argued that the effect is no more than a series of coincidences and amounts to nothing more than a self-fulfilling prophecy, the show's peculiar effect on the stock market is regarded by some as more than coincidence. It was also confirmed that Crédit Lyonnais wrote a report on this matter.
This strange phenomenon also created a career trough for Adam Cheng[citation needed] in Hong Kong during the 1990s, for the two over-the-air television stations in Hong Kong avoided using Cheng for its dramas, partly (if not completely) because they did not want to bear responsibility for a stock market crash.
[edit] References
- ^ "丁蟹效應累恆指瀉663點" (in Chinese). Ming Pao. 2009-03-31. http://news.sina.com.hk/cgi-bin/nw/show.cgi/15/1/1/1085841/1.html. Retrieved 2009-08-29.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j Big5.Chinanews.com. "Big5.Chinanews.com." 何謂「丁蟹效應」. Retrieved on 2009-08-11.
- ^ Yesasia.com. "Yesasia.com." The Greed of Man summary in English. Retrieved on 2009-08-11.
- ^ Sina.com. "Sina.com." 香港股市現「丁蟹效應」 鄭少秋喊冤:股民又賴我. Retrieved on 2009-08-11.
- ^ a b c Sina.com. "Sina.com." 《榮歸》「鄭少秋效應」令全國股民開運？. Retrieved on 2009-08-26.
- ^ Ent.people.com.cn. "Ent.people.com.cn." 鄭少秋顛覆以往形象做小人物 搞笑《御用閒人》. Retrieved on 2009-08-26.
- ^ Ent.big5.enorth.com. "Ent.big5.enorth.com." 鄭少秋新劇播出 香港股市又現『丁蟹效應』. Retrieved on 2009-08-26.
