Earthquake weather
Earthquake weather is a type of weather popularly believed to precede earthquakes.
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[edit] History
From the ancient histories of Herodotus to the modern writings of David Lance Goines, the notion that weather can somehow foreshadow coming seismic activity has been the topic of much discussion and debate.[1] Geologist Russell Robinson has described earthquake weather as one of the more common pseudoscientific methods of predicting earthquakes.[2]
The USGS website states that, In the 4th century B.C., Aristotle proposed that earthquakes were caused by winds trapped in subterranean caves. Small tremors were thought to have been caused by air pushing on the cavern roofs, and large ones by the air breaking the surface. This theory led to a belief in earthquake weather, that because a large amount of air was trapped underground, the weather would be hot and calm before an earthquake. A later theory stated that earthquakes occurred in calm, cloudy conditions, and were usually preceded by strong winds, fireballs, and meteors. A modern theory proposes that certain cloud formations may be used to predict earthquakes; however, this idea is rejected by most geologists.[3][4]
[edit] Background on earthquakes
An earthquake is caused by a sudden slip on a fault. The tectonic plates are always slowly moving, but they get stuck at their edges due to friction. When the stress on the edge overcomes the friction, there is an earthquake that releases energy in waves that travel through the earth's crust and cause the shaking that we feel. For example in California there are two plates - the Pacific Plate and the North American Plate. The Pacific Plate consists of most of the Pacific Ocean floor and the California Coast line. The North American Plate comprises most the North American Continent and parts of the Atlantic Ocean floor. The primary boundary between these two plates is the San Andreas Fault. The San Andreas Fault is more than 650 miles long and extends to depths of at least 10 miles. Many other smaller faults like the Hayward (Northern California) and the San Jacinto (Southern California) branch from and join the San Andreas Fault Zone. The Pacific Plate grinds northwestward past the North American Plate at a rate of about two inches per year.
[edit] Encounters and recordings
[edit] Psychology
It has been proposed, by Prof. W. J. Humphreys, that earthquake weather is not of geological causes, but merely a psychological disposition. Humphreys argued that "the general state of irritation and sensitiveness developed in us during the hot, calm, perhaps sultry weather given this name, inclines us to sharper observation of earthquake disturbances and accentuates the impression they make on our senses, so that we retain more vivd memories of such quakes while possibly over-looking entirely the occurrences on other more soothing days" (Marvin 181).[5]
[edit] Scientific validity
Geologists maintain that there is no connection between weather and earthquakes. They are the result of geologic processes within the earth and can happen in any weather and at any time during the year. Earthquakes originate miles underground. Wind, precipitation, temperature, and barometric pressure changes affect only the surface and shallow subsurface of the Earth. Earthquakes are focused at depths well out of the reach of weather, and the forces that cause earthquakes are much larger than the weather forces. Earthquakes occur in all types of weather, in all climate zones, in all seasons of the year, and at any time of day.[3]
Some recent research has found a correlation between a sudden relative spike in atmospheric temperate 2-5 days before an earthquake. It is speculated that this rise is caused by the movement of ions within the earth's crust, related to the oncoming earthquake. However, in this case the atmospheric changes are caused by the earthquake, rather than causing it. Furthermore, this relative change would not cause any single recognizable weather pattern that could be labelled "earthquake weather".[6][7]
At the 2011 American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, Shimon Wdowinski announced a temporal connection between tropical cyclones and earthquakes.[8]
[edit] See also
[edit] References
- ^ Goines, David Lance. "Earthquake Weather". http://www.goines.net/Writing/earthquake_weather.html.
- ^ Robinson, Russell (14 November 2002). Michael Shermer. ed. The Skeptic Encyclopedia of Pseudoscience. ABC-CLIO. p. 96. ISBN 1-576-07653-9.
- ^ a b "Is there earthquake weather?". FAQs – Earthquake Myths. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learning/faq.php?categoryID=6&faqID=16.
- ^ Curious cloud formations linked to quakes New Scientist, 11 April 2008. Accessed 2009-02-25.
- ^ Marvin, Charles. Monthly Weather Review. 46. Washington: 1918. 180-181. eBook. <http://books.google.com/books?id=ncJGAQAAIAAJ&pg=PA181&lpg=PA181&dq=psychology behind "earthquake weather"&source=bl&ots=089DbwUcv-&sig=341M6awepoRiNhdoSRicm7PJ8Jw&hl=en&ei=oKWxTrKPCqqeiALtocCZCg&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=8&ved=0CD4Q6AEwBw
- ^ "Temperature rises hint at earthquake prediction". New Scientist. December 14, 2001. http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn1696-temperature-rises-hint-at-earthquake-prediction.html.
- ^ "Atmospheric temp spiked before Japan earthquake". Discover Magazine. May 23, 2011. http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/80beats/2011/05/23/finally-a-way-to-predict-earthquakes-atmospheric-temp-spiked-before-japan-quake/.
- ^ "Link Between Earthquakes and Tropical Cyclones: New Study May Help Scientists Identify Regions at High Risk for Earthquakes". ScienceDaily. http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/12/111208121016.htm. Retrieved 2011-12-28.
[edit] External links
- "Earthquake weather" (PDF). New York Times. January 20, 1884. http://query.nytimes.com/mem/archive-free/pdf?_r=1&res=9504E4D9163AEF33A25753C2A9679C94659FD7CF.
- "USGS. Earthquake Hazard Program". 2009. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/faq/?faqID=96.
