Asturian parliamentary election, 2012

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Asturian parliamentary election, 2012
Asturias
2011 ←
25 March 2012 → 2015

All 45 seats of the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias
23 seats needed for a majority
Turnout 51.1%
Decrease15.8 pp
  First party Second party Third party
  Javierfernandezfernandezcrop.jpg Francisco Álvarez-Cascos (2010).jpg
Leader Javier Fernández Francisco Álvarez Cascos Mercedes Fernández
Party PSOE FAC PP
Last election 15 seats, 29.9% 16 seats, 29.7% 10 seats, 20.0%
Seats won
17 / 45
12 / 45
10 / 45
Seat change Increase2 Decrease4 Steady0
Popular vote 161,159 124,518 108,091
Percentage 32.1% 24.8% 21.5%
Swing Increase2.2 pp Decrease4.9 pp Increase1.5 pp

  Fourth party Fifth party
  Jesús Iglesias.png IgnacioPrendes.png
Leader Jesús Iglesias Ignacio Prendes
Party IU UPyD
Last election 4 seats, 10.3% 0 seats, 2.4%
Seats won
5 / 45
1 / 45
Seat change Increase1 Increase1
Popular vote 69,118 18,801
Percentage 13.8% 3.7%
Swing Increase3.5 pp Increase1.3 pp

President before election

Francisco Álvarez Cascos
FAC

Elected President

Javier Fernández
PSOE

The Asturian parliamentary election, 2012 was the 9th election to the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias, the unicameral regional legislature of the Spanish autonomous community of Asturias. The election was held on 25 March 2012 to elect all 45 members of the Assembly.

Voting was on the basis of universal suffrage in a secret ballot. The electoral system used was closed list proportional representation in three electoral districts with seats allocated using the D'Hondt method. Only lists which polled at least 3% of the votes (including votes for "none of the above" [Spanish: en blanco]) were eligible for seats.[1]

Opinion polls[edit]

Poll results[edit]

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. However, if such date is unknown, the date of publication will be given instead.

Date Polling Firm PSOE FAC PP IU UPyD Others Lead
25 Mar 2012 Regional Election 32.1 24.8 21.5 13.8 3.7 4.1 7.3
Exit polls
19 Mar Celeste-Tel[a] 31.5 21.7 22.4 12.3 4.1 8.0 9.1
18 Mar Ipsos-Eco Consulting 29.5 22.5 22.6 13.0 3.8 8.6 6.9
15–16 Mar GAD3 33.3 21.0 25.8 10.1 3.8 6.0 7.5
12–15 Mar Sigma-2 27.7 27.1 22.2 14.8 3.2 5.0 0.6
9 Mar Opinión 2000 35.1 20.9 24.3 12.4 2.6 4.7 10.8
15–28 Feb CIS 28.2 22.7 24.0 14.5 4.4 6.2 4.2
15–28 Feb NC Report[a] 31.7 23.8 22.7 21.8 7.9
2012
20 Nov 2011 General Election 29.3 14.7 35.4 13.2 3.9 3.4 6.1
22 May 2011 Regional Election 29.9 29.7 20.0 10.3 2.4 7.7 0.2

Seats[edit]

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 23 seats are required for an absolute majority in the General Council of the Principality of Asturias.

23 seats needed for majority
Date Polling Firm PSOE FAC PP IU UPyD Others
25 Mar 2012 Election Results 17 12 10 5 1 0
Exit polls
19 Mar Celeste-Tel 14/17 10/12 11/13 4/7 1/2 0
19 Mar NC Report 15/16 11/12 12/13 5/6 1/2 0
18 Mar Ipsos-Eco Consulting 15 11/12 11/12 6 1 0
15–16 Mar GAD3 15/16 10/11 12/13 4/5 1 0
12–15 Mar Sigma-2 13/14 13/14 10/11 6/7 1 0
6 Mar PP 17/18 9/10 12/14 4/5 0/1 0
15–28 Feb CIS 14 10/11 11/12 7 2 0
15–28 Feb NC Report 16 12 12 4 1 0
16–21 Feb Low-Cost 15 10 15 4 1 0
2012
22 May 2011 Election Results 15 16 10 4 0 0

Results[edit]

Summary of the 25 March 2012 Asturias parliamentary election results
Party Vote Seats
Votes  % ±pp Elect. +/−
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) 161,159 32.10 +2.18 17 +2
Asturian Forum (FAC) 124,518 24.80 −4.86 12 −4
People's Party (PP) 108,091 21.53 +1.58 10 ±0
United Left (IU) 69,118 13.77 +3.49 5 +1
Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) 18,801 3.74 +1.30 1 +1
Citizens for Blank Votes (Eb) 4,107 0.82 New 0 ±0
EQUO (EQUO) 2,558 0.51 New 0 ±0
Bloc for Asturias-Asturian Nationalist Unity (BPA-UNA) 1,656 0.33 −0.70 0 ±0
Animal Rights Party (PACMA) 1,449 0.29 −0.03 0 ±0
Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE) 782 0.16 −0.08 0 ±0
Jaded.org (Hartos.org) 738 0.15 New 0 ±0
Andecha Astur (AA) 674 0.13 New 0 ±0
Asturian Renewal Union (URAS) 454 0.09 −0.41 0 ±0
Constitutional and Democratic Party (PDyC) 237 0.05 −0.12 0 ±0
Republican Social Movement (MSR) 183 0.04 ±0.00 0 ±0
Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management (SAIn) 178 0.04 New 0 ±0
Communist Unification of Spain (UCE) 100 0.02 +0.02 0 ±0
Auseva Red (Auseva Red) 55 0.01 New 0 ±0
Humanist Party (PH) 28 0.01 New 0 ±0
Others 21 0.00 0 ±0
Blank ballots 7,166 1.43 −1.17
Total 502,073 100.00 45 ±0
Valid votes 502,073 99.15 +0.59
Invalid votes 4,295 0.85 −0.59
Votes cast / turnout 506,368 51.15 −15.75
Abstentions 483,625 48.85 +15.75
Registered voters 989,993
Source: Argos Information Portal
Vote share
PSOE
  
32.10%
FAC
  
24.80%
PP
  
21.53%
IU
  
13.77%
UPyD
  
3.74%
Others
  
2.63%
Blank
  
1.43%
Parliamentary seats
PSOE
  
37.78%
FAC
  
26.67%
PP
  
22.22%
IU
  
11.11%
UPyD
  
2.22%

Government formation[edit]

After the election, the leader of the Asturian PSOE, Javier Fernández Fernández, and the incumbent Asturian President, Francisco Álvarez Cascos, were tasked to form a coalition government. The election led to a political impasse as the left (PSOE and IU) and the right (FAC and PP) each gained 22 seats in the election (23 seats are required for a majority in the 45-seat Assembly). The remaining seat was held by the centrist UPyD, which became the kingmaker in the negotiation.

The coalition talks took almost two months to reach an agreement. One of the main events during the negotiation was the legal battle in the Spanish Constitutional Court over the 45th seat, the assignment of which was delayed by counting of absentee ballots. The FAC disputed the seat's assignment to the PSOE and asked for a revote. The Constitutional Court rejected the appeal and upheld the seat for the PSOE.[2]

The UPyD finally agreed to form a government with PSOE. Their main reason to enter the coalition was the threat by Minister of Finance Cristóbal Montoro Romero to intervene in Asturian government accounts.[3] On 23 May 2012, PSOE leader Javíer Fernandez was elected as the new president of the Principality of Asturias with support of the IU and UPyD.[4]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ a b Poll results are shown projected over candidacy votes (that is, votes going for political parties, excluding blank ballots). The vote percentage in the official election is calculated including blank ballots into the estimation. In order to obtain data comparable to both the official results as well as those of other polls, a rule of three has been applied to the poll projections, with the results of the calculation being shown instead.

References[edit]

  1. ^ Asturias election results historiaelectoral.com, accessed 23 April 2011
  2. ^ "Un mes y 21 días de suspense" (in Spanish). El País. 16 May 2012. Retrieved 25 May 2012. 
  3. ^ "El PSOE gobernará en Asturias tras llegar a un acuerdo con UPyD" (in Spanish). El País. 16 May 2012. Retrieved 25 May 2012. 
  4. ^ "Javier Fernández, presidente de Asturias con el apoyo de IU y UPyD" (in Spanish). El País. 23 May 2012. Retrieved 25 May 2012.