Energy superpower

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The term energy superpower is a term mainly used by media and politicians to refer to a nation that supplies large amounts of energy resources (crude oil, natural gas, coal, uranium, etc.) to a significant number of other states, and therefore has the potential to influence world markets to gain a political or economic advantage. However, it does not have a clear definition.[1] The term is usually used to refer to Russia, but has been used also to refer to other countries, such as Saudi Arabia, Canada, Australia, and Iran.[1][2][3][4][5]

Energy superpower status might be exercised, for example, by significantly influencing the price on global markets, or by withholding supplies.[6] The status of "energy superpower" should not be confused with that of "superpower".

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[edit] Energy superpowers

Russian natural gas as a % of domestic consumption.

Russia's reserves of natural gas have helped give it the title of energy superpower.[7][8] However, this status has been called into question by some. As Vladimir Milov, of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, says :

The "energy superpower" concept is an illusion with no basis in reality. Perhaps most dangerously, it doesn’t recognize the mutual dependence between Russia and energy consumers. Because of political conflicts and declining production, future supply disruptions to Europe are likely. As a result, European gas companies may likely someday demand elimination of the take-or-pay conditions in their Russian contracts. This would threaten Gazprom’s ability to borrow. Putin’s attempt to use energy to increase Russian influence could backfire in the long run.[9]

Iran's oil & gas production (1970-2030 est.)

Iran is another energy superpower.[10][11][12][13][14][15] Robert Baer in his book: "The Devil We Know: Dealing with the New Iranian Superpower", argues that Iran is already an energy superpower[not in citation given] both because of its own energy reserves and the military power it can project over the energy reserves in middle east region.[16] He argues that Iran's ambition is to become a conventional superpower or even an empire. Flynt Leverett calls Iran a rising power because of its massive hydrocarbon reserves. He argues that Iran is the world's only country to have huge reserves of both natural gas and oil. Furthermore Iran also is the only country with huge hydrocarbon reserves which has the potential to increase its output massively, since Iran's current production levels are well below its maximum potential. The combined hydrocarbon energy reserves composed of natural gas and oil in Iran is almost equal to that of Saudi Arabia's and more than Russia's total hydrocarbon energy reserves.[17][18][19][20]

According to Manik Talwani, a geophysicist at Rice University, there are two countries that are most likely to attain the status of Oil superpower: Venezuela and Canada.[21] Citing their enormous potential reserves (1.2 trillion potential barrels for Venezuela and 1.75 trillion for Canada's oil sands), Dr. Talwani believes that they have the reserves to become energy superpowers in the next few decades as oil production declines elsewhere. However, as Dr. Talwani notes, both need 100 billion dollars or more to increase their production levels up to those of true energy superpowers.

[edit] Threats to energy superpowers

Countries where natural gas fields are located

Recently a new strategy has emerged from al-Qaeda when it comes to fighting the United States. Rather than only targeting the U.S. interests directly in an attempt to cripple it, al-Qaeda now believes that cutting off the supply of energy to the U.S. should be a high priority.[22]

Says Ian MacLeod of the CanWest News Service, "A major supply disruption would send energy prices soaring. Had the Abqaiq attack been successful -- guards fired on cars driven by the bombers, detonating the explosives inside -- some experts say oil prices would have likely broken all records. A catastrophic hit could bring transportation and other parts of the U.S. and world economies to a standstill."[22]

[edit] See also

[edit] Notes

  1. ^ a b "How Russia's energy superpower status can bring supersecurity and superstability. Interview with Leonid Grigoriev". Civil G8. 2006. http://en.civilg8.ru/2054.php. Retrieved 2012-02-05. 
  2. ^ "Saudi Arabia's first step towards clean energy technologies". UNDP. http://arabstates.undp.org/subpage.php?spid=31&sscid=142. Retrieved 2012-02-05. 
  3. ^ Argitis, Theophilos; van Loon, Jeremy (2012-01-25). "Harper Builds Oil Link With China After Obama Keystone 'Slap'". Bloomberg. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-25/harper-builds-oil-links-with-china-after-obama-slap-on-keystone-pipeline.html. Retrieved 2012-02-05. 
  4. ^ "Australia inks massive energy deal with China". AFP. 2009-08-19. http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific_business/view/449684/1/.html. Retrieved 2012-02-05. 
  5. ^ Luft, Gal (2007-07-05). "Iran's Oil Industry: A House of Cards?". IAGS. http://www.iags.org/n050707.htm. Retrieved 2012-02-05. 
  6. ^ ""Russia Won't Act Like an Energy Superpower": Making Promises that Can't Be Kept". Global Events Magazine. 2006-09-15. Archived from the original on 2008-08-28. http://web.archive.org/web/20080828060948/http://geostrategymap.com/Gold/g_Putin_Hollow_Promise_2.html. Retrieved 2012-02-05. 
  7. ^ How Sustainable is Russia's Future as an Energy Superpower?, by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 16 March 2006
  8. ^ Russia: The 21st Century's Energy Superpower?, by Fiona Hill, The Brookings Institution, 5 October 2002
  9. ^ "How Sustainable is Russia's Future as an Energy Superpower?". Carnegieendowment.org. http://www.carnegieendowment.org/events/index.cfm?fa=eventDetail&id=860. Retrieved 2012-02-07. 
  10. ^ "American Journal of Scientific Research ISSN 1450-223X Issue 45 (2012), pp. 76-84" (PDF). http://www.eurojournals.com/AJSR_45_10.pdf. Retrieved 2012-02-07. 
  11. ^ http://www.uidergisi.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/Global-Energy-Geopolitics-and-Iran.pdf
  12. ^ "The Rising might of the Middle East super power - Council on Foreign Relations". Cfr.org. http://www.cfr.org/iran/rising-might-middle-east-super-power/p11412. Retrieved 2012-02-07. 
  13. ^ Bar, Zvi (2010-02-26). "Iran is regional superpower even without nukes - Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News". Haaretz.com. http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/opinion/iran-is-regional-superpower-even-without-nukes-1.266031. Retrieved 2012-02-07. 
  14. ^ Jay, James. "Iran’s Energy Sector and Nuclear Weapons Program: A Target Vulnerable to Sanctions". Heritage.org. http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2011/02/irans-energy-sector-a-target-vulnerable-to-sanctions. Retrieved 2012-02-07. 
  15. ^ Sick, Gary G. (1987-03-01). "Iran's Quest for Superpower Status". Foreign Affairs. http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/42020/gary-g-sick/irans-quest-for-superpower-status. Retrieved 2012-02-07. 
  16. ^ Baer, Robert (2008). The devil we know: dealing with the new Iranian superpower. Crown Publishers. p. ?. ISBN 9780307408648. http://books.google.com/books?id=ztdT0tncFnUC&redir_esc=y. 
  17. ^ http://www.tcf.org/publications/internationalaffairs/leverett_diplomatic.pdf
  18. ^ Investing to Obtain Energy Security[dead link]
  19. ^ http://www.newamerica.net/files/070110leverett_testimony.pdf
  20. ^ "Iran's Islamic Revolution and Its Future - Harvard - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs". Belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu. http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/18954/irans_islamic_revolution_and_its_future.html. Retrieved 2012-02-07. 
  21. ^ Canada: The next oil superpower?, by Manik Talwani. The New York Times 2003
  22. ^ a b "Al-Qaeda calls for attacks on Canadian oil facilities". Ian MacLeod, CanWest News Service. 2007-02-17. http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/story.html?id=c7352232-1809-44a8-9006-f269b0d623ea&k=0. Retrieved 2007-04-06. 
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