Evidential decision theory
Evidential decision theory is a school of thought within decision theory according to which the best action is the one which, conditional on your having chosen it, gives you the best expectations for the outcome. It contrasts with causal decision theory, which requires a causal connection between your actions and the desirable outcome.
where is the desirability of outcome and is the conditional probability of given .
David Lewis has characterized evidential decision theory as promoting "an irrational policy of managing the news". James M. Joyce asserted, "Rational agents choose acts on the basis of their causal efficacy, not their auspiciousness; they act to bring about good results even when doing so might betoken bad news."
- Gibbard, A.; Harper, W.L. (1981), "Counterfactuals and two kinds of expected utility", Ifs: Conditionals, Beliefs, Decision, Chance, and Time: 153–190
- Lewis, D. (1981), "Causal decision theory" (PDF), Australasian Journal of Philosophy 59 (1): 5–30, doi:10.1080/00048408112340011, retrieved 2009-05-29
- Joyce, J.M. (1999), The foundations of causal decision theory, p. 146
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