Failure of imagination
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Failure of imagination is a general term used to describe circumstances wherein something that was possible to predict or foresee was, in fact, not predicted or foreseen.
The field of Epistemology studies knowledge and human understanding, and failures of understanding. Failure of imagination is related to Unknown unknowns and Black swan theory, popularized by Nassim Taleb in his 2007 book The Black Swan, describing unexpected or unpredicted incidents with significant negative impact.
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[edit] Intelligence failures of imagination and the 9/11 attacks
The term has been used to describe part of why intelligence agencies such as the Central Intelligence Agency and the NSA failed to foresee and prevent the September 11 attacks. More generally, the term also refers to the known failures to outsmart terrorists by the Bill Clinton and George W. Bush administrations and within the various government agencies such as the Federal Bureau of Investigation or the CIA.
During the summer of 2003, after the now-declassified report about the September 11 attack, many government officials, such as Senator Bob Graham began to make criticisms that the September 11 attack might have easily been predicted, if not outright prevented in part or altogether.[1] Following these criticisms, President Bush declassified the August 6, 2001 President's Daily Brief, Bin Ladin Determined To Strike in US, which indicated that hijackings might be one possible mode of attack.[2]
After the attacks, representatives of the Bush administration claimed in early 2004 that "nobody could have imagined that ... hijackers would intentionally crash .... hijackers usually want to live."[3] To the contrary, author Tom Clancy envisioned just such an event in his 1994 novel Debt of Honor, where a disgruntled Japan Airlines pilot flies a Boeing 747 into the United States Capitol.[4] The apparently intentional crash of EgyptAir Flight 990 by its co-pilot on December 31, 1999[5], and a similar intentional crash of PSA Flight 1771 by a disgruntled former airline employee on December 7, 1987[6], and especially the case of AFR 8969, offered precedents in real life. Prior to the 9/11 attacks, a number of foreign nationals were taking pilot training in the U.S. and raised suspicion by being uninterested in learning how to land safely. The 9/11 Commission found that this failure to "connect the dots" and imagine what was being planned was an important contributing factor to the September 11 attacks, stating "the most important failure [concerning the 9/11 attacks] was one of imagination."[7]
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The phrase failure of imagination has been used to describe the cause of the Apollo 1 fire in 1967. The term was attributed to astronaut Frank Borman, speaking at the Apollo 1 investigation hearings (dramatized in the HBO mini-series From the Earth to the Moon in 1998.)
The term has also been applied to design flaws in the RMS Titanic as well.
[edit] See also
- Hindsight bias
- Argument from ignorance
- Epistemology
- Unknown unknown
- Black swan theory
- Decision theory
[edit] References
- ^ Mother Jones interview with Graham
- ^ National Security Archive
- ^ White House briefing with Condoleezza Rice
- ^ Amazon listing of Debt of Honor
- ^ NTSB report
- ^ Answers.com report
- ^ "Final Report of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States: Executive Summary". National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States. 2004-01-27. http://govinfo.library.unt.edu/911/report/911Report_Exec.htm. Retrieved 2009-09-20.
