File:Risks and Impacts of Global Warming.png

Summary[edit]

Description[edit]

Projected changes in average surface temperature according to a range of global climate models using the SRES "A2" greenhouse gas emissions scenario.

The diagram above, sometimes called the "burning embers" diagram, is adapted from the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which was published in 2001. It presents a conceptual assessment of the relative impact and risks associated with global warming across five "reasons for concern" (IPCC, 2001b).^[1]

The period 1850-1990 warmed by 0.6 °C and led to some impacts^[2] See also the article on the effects of global warming). The left part of the figure shows a range of projections for future global mean temperature increase relative to 1990 levels (IPCC, 2001b).^[1] These projections were made using climate models under several different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.

The colored bars of the figure indicate the risks of adverse climate impacts for each reason for concern. White indicates neutral or small negative or positive impacts or risks, yellow indicates negative impacts for some systems or low risks, and red means negative impacts or risks that are more widespread and/or greater in magnitude (IPCC, 2001b:5).^[1] Colors are smoothly gradated from one to the other, and the thresholds given below are approximate:

• For "risks to unique and threatened systems," white extends up to around -0.6 °C before starting to turn yellow, becoming fully yellow at about 0.2 °C. In this category, yellow indicates risks to some systems. Yellow starts to turn red at about 1.5 °C, becoming fully red at about 2.5 °C. In this category, Red indicates risks to many systems.
• For "frequency and severity of extreme climate events," white extends up to around -0.6 °C before starting to turn yellow, becoming fully yellow at about 0 °C. In this category, yellow indicates an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme climate events. Yellow starts to turn orange at about 1.2 °C, becoming fully red at about 2 °C. In this category, red indicates a large increase in the frequency and severity of extreme climate events.
• For "global distribution and balance of impacts," white extends up to around 0.6 °C before starting to turn yellow. In this category, the white/yellow threshold indicates negative risks for some regions. Yellow starts to turn orange at about 2.5 °C, becoming fully red at about 4 °C. In this category, red indicates negative risks for most regions.
• For "total economic and ecological impact," white extends up to around 0.8 °C before starting to turn yellow. In this category, the yellow indicates positive or negative market impacts, and the majority of people adversely affected. Yellow starts to turn orange at about 2.5 °C, becoming fully red at about 4 °C. In this category, red indicates a net negative impact in all metrics.
• For "risk of irreversible large-scale and abrupt transitions," white extends up to around 2 °C before starting to turn yellow. In this category, the white indicates a very low risk of irreversible large-scale and abrupt transitions. Yellow starts to turn orange at about 4.2 °C, becoming fully red at about 5.5 °C. In this category, the yellow/red threshold indicates a higher risk of irreversible large-scale and abrupt transitions.

The figure uses global mean temperature as a proxy for the magnitude of future climate change. Other factors that will affect future climate change impacts include:^[1]

• the rate of global climate change and regional climate changes
• changes in mean climate, climate variability and extreme climate events. Climate variability refers to variations in the mean state and other statistics (e.g., standard deviation) of the climate on all spatial and temporal scales, beyond that of individual weather events (IPCC, 2001b:985).^[3]
• changes in future social and economic conditions
• future adaptation to climate change

References[edit]

Sources cited several times[edit]

• McCarthy, J.J., et al., ed. (2001). Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Integovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. This version: GRID-Arendal website. 

Copyright[edit]

Fair-use rationale for United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and Effects of global warming

The bars and basic structure of this image is attributed to IPCC, constitutes one of the central conclusions of their work, and are represented in the manner they considered appropriate for conveying their conclusions. It is believed that the use this material in the present adaptation in Wikipedia to inform and educate about the risks associated with global warming constitutes a fair use under United States copyright law. The current presentation of this material was prepared by Robert A. Rohde as part of the Global Warming Art project. Any unique elements associated with this adaptation are licensed under the Global Warming Art license (i.e. {{GFDL}} and {{cc-by-sa-3.0}}).

Licensing[edit]

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