Florida gubernatorial election, 2014

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Florida gubernatorial election, 2014
Florida
2010 ←
November 4, 2014 (2014-November-04) → 2018

  Rick Scott.jpg Gov charlie crist.jpg AdrianWyllieForGov.jpg
Nominee Rick Scott Charlie Crist Adrian Wyllie
Party Republican Democratic Libertarian
Running mate Carlos López-Cantera Annette Taddeo-Goldstein Greg Roe

Incumbent Governor

Rick Scott
Republican

The 2014 Florida gubernatorial election will take place on November 4, 2014, to elect the Governor of Florida and Lieutenant Governor of Florida. Additionally, Florida law mandates a minimum of 8 days of early voting before elections, during which voters may cast ballots at a limited number of locations (usually county courthouses or other government offices/buildings). Absentee voting also permits voting by mail, but absentee ballots must be received by the proper election office by the time polls close on election day.

Incumbent Republican Governor Rick Scott is running for re-election to a second term in office.[1] The Democratic nominee is former Governor Charlie Crist. Crist was elected Governor as a Republican in 2006 but did not run for re-election in 2010, instead running for the U.S. Senate. In April 2010 and while still in office, he left the Republican Party to run as an Independent instead. He was defeated in the general election by Republican nominee Marco Rubio. In December 2012, Crist joined the Democratic Party. Also running are Libertarian nominee Adrian Wyllie and several candidates with no party affiliation.

Scott is considered vulnerable as reflected in his low approval ratings. The consensus among The Cook Political Report,[2] Governing,[3] The Rothenberg Political Report,[4] Sabato's Crystal Ball,[5] Daily Kos Elections,[6] and others[7][8][9] is that the contest is a tossup.

Republican primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Withdrew[edit]

  • Timothy Devine[11]

Declined[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rick
Scott
Someone
else
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 15–18, 2013 326 ± 5.4% 42% 43% 14%
Public Policy Polling January 11–13, 2013 436 ± 4.7% 50% 40% 10%
Quinnipiac December 11–17, 2012 1,261 ± 2.8% 30% 53% 16%
Public Policy Polling September 22–25, 2011 472 ± 4.5% 53% 37% 10%

Results[edit]

Republican primary results[31]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Rick Scott 831,887 87.65%
Republican Elizabeth Cuevas-Neunder 100,496 10.59%
Republican Yinka Adeshina 16,761 1.77%
Totals 949,144 100%

Democratic primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Withdrew[edit]

Declined[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Charlie
Crist
Buddy
Dyer
Dan
Gelber
Pam
Iorio
Anthony Shriver
Kennedy
Jimmy
Morales
Bill
Nelson
Nan
Rich
Alex
Sink
Rod
Smith
Other Unde-
cided
Public Policy Polling January 16–21, 2014 243 ± 6.3% 58% 16% 25%
Fabrizio McLaughlin November 24–26, 2013 380 ± ? 45% 32% 4% 19%
Quinnipiac November 12–17, 2013 1,646 ± 2.4% 60% 12% 2% 26%
Public Policy Polling September 27–29, 2013 337 ± ? 59% 16% 25%
Public Policy Polling March 15–18, 2013 500 ± 5.4% 50% 9% 3% 21% 16%
Hamilton Strategies Jan. 30 – February 4, 2013 600 ± 4% 43% 1% 14% 5% 37%
Public Policy Polling January 11–13, 2013 401 ± 4.9% 52% 4% 13% 1% 18% 12%
SEA Polling[dead link] September 2012 600 ± 4% 29% 3% 8% 2% 1% 31% 26%
St. Pete Polls September 8, 2012 1,689 ± 2.4% 60.9% 7% 3.5% 25.1% 3.4%

Results[edit]

Democratic primary results[31]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Charlie Crist 623,001 74.36%
Democratic Nan Rich 214,795 25.64%
Totals 837,796 100%

Libertarian Party[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Withdrew[edit]

  • John Wayne Smith, activist and perennial candidate[69]

Declined[edit]

Independents[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Withdrew[edit]

Disqualified[edit]

  • Joe Allen, writer[73]

Write-in candidates[edit]

  • Piotr Blass
  • Running mate: Bob Wirengard[75]
  • Timothy Michael Devine
  • Running mate: Diane Smith[76]
  • Emelia Sandra Harris
  • Running mate: Georgianna G. Harris[77]
  • Monroe Lee
  • Running mate: Juanita Lockett[78]
  • Charles Frederick Tolbert
  • Running mate: Christine Timmon[79]

General election[edit]

Candidates[edit]

The following candidates will appear on the ballot for the general election:[80]

  • Charlie Crist (Democratic), former Republican turned Independent Governor and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010[32]
  • Running mate: Greg Roe, insurance executive[83]
  • Glenn Burkett (Independent), businessman and perennial candidate[73]
  • Running mate: Jose Augusto Matos
  • Running mate: Lateresa A. Jones

Endorsements[edit]

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking
Cook Political Report[2] Toss up
Governing[3] Toss up
The Rothenberg Political Report[4] Toss up
Sabato's Crystal Ball[5] Toss up
Daily Kos Elections[6] Toss up

Campaigning[edit]

As of early June 2014, Scott had spent almost $13m since March on television adverts attacking Charlie Crist, who then appeared the likely Democratic nominee. Although the ads resulted in a tightening of the race, this came about by decreasing Crist's favorability ratings. By contrast, Scott's favorability ratings have not increased.[122] By late September, Scott's television ad spending had exceeded $35m[123][124] and in mid-October it reached $56.5 million, compared to $26.5 million by Crist. On October 22 it was reported that Scott's total spending had exceeded $83 million and he announced that, having previously said he would not do so, he would be investing his own money into the campaign, speculated to be as much as $22 million.[125]

Crist hopes to draw strong support from Florida's more than 1.6 million registered black voters, an effort that is challenging with regards to his previous political career as a Republican. A poll conducted in September 2014 by Quinnipiac University revealed his support among black voters at 72 percent against Scott, which is below the 90 percent analysts believe he needs to win.[126]

Scott and Crist met in a debate on October 15, held by the Florida Press Association at Broward College.[127] The debate required candidates to receive at least 15% support in major polls to be included, which was increased from 10% after Wyllie met the initial criteria.[128] The decision has been criticised as "suppressing choice"[129] and the Wyllie campaign has filed a lawsuit to be included in the debate.[130] U.S. District Judge James I. Cohn dismissed the lawsuit.[131] At this debate, Scott refused to take the stage for seven minutes because Crist had a small electric fan under his lectern. The incident was dubbed "fangate" by media sources such as Politico.[132]

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rick
Scott (R)
Charlie
Crist (D)
Adrian
Wyllie (L)
Other Undecided
SEA Polling October 28–29, 2014 800 ± 3.5% 45% 43% 5% 7%
Cherry Communications October 27–29, 2014 508 ± 4% 44% 39% 4% 13%
University of Florida October 24–28, 2014 850 ± 3.1% 36% 36% 6% 20%
Quinnipiac University October 22–27, 2014 817 ± 3.4% 40% 43% 8% 9%
42% 45% 2% 11%
0ptimus October 20–26, 2014  ? ± ? 41.9% 39.4% 11.9% 6.8%
Gravis Marketing October 22–24, 2014 861 ± 3% 42% 44% 14%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 5,422 ± 2% 46% 45% 2% 7%
Quinnipiac University October 14–20, 2014 984 ± 3.1% 42% 42% 7% 1% 8%
44% 44% 2% 11%
Saint Leo University October 16–19, 2014 500 ± 4.9% 40% 43% 8% 9%
45% 45% 10%
0ptimus October 13–19, 2014  ? ± 1.5% 41.1% 40.2% 12% 6.7%
St. Pete Polls October 17, 2014 1,855 ± 2.3% 43.9% 45.3% 8.4% 2.5%
Rasmussen Reports October 15–17, 2014 1,114 ± 3% 47% 47% 2% 4%
SurveyUSA October 10–13, 2014 566 ± 4.2% 41% 45% 7% 7%
CNN/ORC October 9–13, 2014 610 LV ± 4% 44% 44% 9% 4%
850 RV ± 3.5% 40% 42% 10% 8%
Gravis Marketing October 11–12, 2014 1,023 ± 3% 44% 42% 14%
University of Florida October 7–12, 2014 781 ± 3.2% 40% 40% 6% 7%
0ptimus October 6–12, 2014 6,384 ± 1.3% 39.4% 40.5% 13% 7.1%
St. Pete Polls October 8–11, 2014 3,128 ± 1.8% 45% 44% 8% 3%
University of North Florida September 29–October 8, 2014 471 ± 4.74% 38% 43% 10% <1% 9%
42% 47% 2% 9%
SurveyUSA October 2–6, 2014 594 ± 4.1% 42% 44% 6% 8%
0ptimus September 29–October 5, 2014 6,494 ± 1.2% 39.1% 40.2% 13.1% 7.6%
Public Policy Polling October 3–4, 2014 1,161 ± 2.9% 43% 45% 8% 5%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20–October 1, 2014 5,689 ± 2% 47% 44% 1% 8%
SurveyUSA September 26–29, 2014 588 ± 4.1% 40% 46% 8% 6%
0ptimus September 22–28, 2014 3,356 ± 1.7% 40.1% 41.1% 11.1% 7.7%
SurveyUSA September 19–22, 2014 588 ± 4.1% 43% 42% 4% 11%
Quinnipiac University September 17–22, 2014 991 ± 3.1% 44% 42% 8% 1% 5%
46% 44% 2% 7%
Cherry Communications September 18–21, 2014  ? ± 3.5% 43% 39% 4% 5% 7%
0ptimus September 15–21, 2014 6,079 ± 1.3% 40.7% 40.6% 11.1% 7.5%
SurveyUSA September 12–15, 2014 571 ± 4.2% 44% 39% 7% 9%
0ptimus September 8–14, 2014 3,660 ± 1.7% 40.8% 40.3% 8.1% 10.8%
Rasmussen Reports September 8–10, 2014 1,000 ± 3% 40% 42% 18%
SurveyUSA September 5–8, 2014 576 ± 4.2% 45% 44% 3% 8%
Associated Industries September 4–7, 2014 1,000 ± 3.1% 47% 41% 12%
AIF Political Operations September 4–7, 2014 1,000 ± 3.1% 43% 40% 5% 12%
46% 40% 14%
Public Policy Polling September 4–7, 2014 818 ± 3.8% 39% 42% 8% 11%
41% 44% 14%
0ptimus September 1–7, 2014 4,386 ± 1.5% 41.7% 40.3% 7.7% 10.3%
Mason-Dixon September 2–4, 2014 625 ± 4% 43% 41% 4% 1% 11%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18–September 2, 2014 5,962 ± 2% 46% 43% 4% 8%
University of Florida August 27–31, 2014 814 ± 3.4% 40.93% 35.74% 6.32% 17.01%
43.71% 37.57% 18.72%
SurveyUSA August 27–28, 2014 580 ± 4.2% 43% 45% 4% 7%
Gravis Marketing August 14–24, 2014 859 ± 4% 37% 37% 26%
0ptimus August 18–24, 2014 9,333 ± 1% 41.6% 38.6% 9% 10.7%
SurveyUSA August 15–18, 2014 564 ± 4.2% 44% 41% 4% 8% 4%
0ptimus August 11–17, 2014 12,812 ± 0.9% 43.5% 41.1% 15.4%
Cherry Communications August 10–13, 2014 627 ± 4% 41% 35% 4% 20%
44% 41% 15%
SurveyUSA July 31–August 4, 2014 576 ± 4.2% 45% 43% 8% 4%
0ptimus July 28–August 3, 2014 4,714 ± 1.5% 45.1% 43.7% 11.3%
Rasmussen Reports July 29–30, 2014 900 ± 3% 42% 41% 8% 9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 2014 6,873 ± ? 48% 43% 4% 5%
Quinnipiac University July 17–21, 2014 1,251 ± 2.8% 37% 39% 9% 1% 15%
40% 45% 2% 12%
SurveyUSA July 17–21, 2014 564 ± 4.2% 40% 46% 8% 6%
Hart/North Star June 26–July 6, 2014 1,202 ± 3.5% 47% 40% 13%
SurveyUSA June 30–July 4, 2014 558 ± 4.2% 45% 43% 7% 5%
Gravis Marketing June 20–23, 2014 1,232 ± 3% 41% 39% 6% 15%
SurveyUSA June 20–23, 2014 541 ± 4.3% 42% 41% 8% 8%
Cherry Communications June 11, 2014 806 ± 3.5% 41% 38% 4% 17%
SurveyUSA June 5–10, 2014 556 ± 4.2% 40% 44% 8% 8%
Public Policy Polling June 6–9, 2014 672 ± 3.8% 42% 42% 16%
Saint Leo University May 28–June 4, 2014 500 ± 5% 43% 41% 16%
SurveyUSA May 20–22, 2014 531 ± 4.3% 42% 40% 9% 8%
SurveyUSA May 9–12, 2014 554 ± 4.2% 41% 44% 7% 8%
McLaughlin & Associates May 4–6, 2014 800 ± 3.4% 42% 38% 20%
Quinnipiac University April 23–28, 2014 1,413 ± 2.6% 38% 48% 2% 12%
Gravis Marketing April 23–25, 2014 907 ± 3% 44% 43% 5% 9%
SurveyUSA April 2014  ? ± 4.3% 41% 44% 6% 8%
Rasmussen Reports April 21–22, 2014 750 ± 4% 39% 45% 6% 10%
Mason-Dixon April 15–17 & 21–22, 2014 700 ± 3.8% 42% 42% 4% 12%
Magellan Strategies April 14–15, 2014 868 ± 3.33% 45% 43% 5% 7%
SurveyUSA April 10–14, 2014 502 ± 4.5% 41% 46% 7% 6%
Public Policy Polling April 1–3, 2014 814 ± 3.1% 42% 49% 10%
Sunshine State News March 31–April 3, 2014 800 ± 3.46% 45% 44% 1% 10%
Saint Leo University March 16–19, 2014 500 ± 5.0% 39% 43% 18%
University of North Florida March 6–16, 2014 507 ± 4.35% 33% 34% 17% 17%
University of Florida January 27–February 1, 2014 1,006 ± 3% 40% 47% 13%
Gravis Marketing January 30–31, 2014 808 ± 4% 44% 47% 3% 6%
Quinnipiac University January 22–27, 2014 1,565 ± 2.5% 38% 46% 16%
Hamilton Strategies January 14–20, 2014 700 ± 3.8% 44% 49% 7%
Public Policy Polling January 16–21, 2014 591 ± 4% 41% 43% 15%
Saint Leo University December 1–8, 2013 400 ± 5% 34% 46% 20%
Fabrizio McLaughlin November 24–26, 2013 1,000 ± 3.1% 45% 49% 6%
Quinnipiac University November 12–17, 2013 1,646 ± 2.4% 40% 47% 2% 12%
Gravis Marketing November 8–10, 2013 932 ± 3% 36% 46% 19%
University of North Florida September 30–October 8, 2013 526 ± 4.27% 40% 44% 2% 14%
Public Policy Polling September 27–29, 2013 579 ± 4.1% 38% 50% 12%
St. Pete Polls August 1–2, 2013 3,034 ± 1.8% 29.5% 40.1% 8.7% 21.7%
Quinnipiac University June 11–16, 2013 1,176 ± 2.9% 37% 47% 2% 12%
Public Policy Polling March 15–18, 2013 500 ± 5.4% 40% 52% 8%
Quinnipiac University March 13–18, 2013 1,000 ± 3.1% 34% 50% 1% 15%
Hamilton Strategies January 30–February 4, 2013 600 ± 4% 41% 41% 7%
Public Policy Polling January 11–13, 2013 501 ± 4.4% 39% 53% 8%
Public Policy Polling August 31–September 2, 2012 1,548 ± 2.5% 42% 45% 13%
Public Policy Polling July 26–29, 2012 871 ± 3.3% 41% 44% 15%
Public Policy Polling November 28–December 1, 2011 700 ± 3.7% 32% 55% 13%
Public Policy Polling September 22–25, 2011 476 ± 4.5% 38% 51% 11%
Public Policy Polling June 16–19, 2011 848 ± 3.4% 34% 56% 10%

See also[edit]

References[edit]

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