French legislative election, 2007

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search
French legislative election, 2007
France
2002 ←
10 June and 17 June 2007 → 2012

All 577 seats to the French National Assembly
289 seats were needed for a majority
  First party Second party
  François Fillon 2010.jpg François Hollande - Royal & Zapatero's meeting in Toulouse for the 2007 French presidential election 0550 2007-04-19.jpg
Leader François Fillon François Hollande
Party UMP PS
Leader's seat Sarthe-4th Corrèze-1st
Last election 357 seats 140 seats
Seats won 313 186
Seat change Decrease44 Increase46
(1st round) 10,289,028
39.54%
6,436,136
24.73%
(2nd round) 9,463,408
46.37%
8,622,529
42.25%

2007electionmapr2.png

Map showing the results of the second round.

Prime Minister before election

François Fillon
UMP

Prime Minister-designate

François Fillon
UMP

Armoiries république française.svg
This article is part of a series on the
politics and government of
France
France portal

The French legislative elections took place on 10 June and 17 June 2007 to elect the 13th National Assembly of the Fifth Republic, a few weeks after the French presidential election run-off on 6 May. 7,639 candidates stood for 577 seats, including France's overseas possessions. Early first-round results projected a large majority for President Nicolas Sarkozy's UMP and its allies; however, second-round results showed a closer race and a stronger left. Nevertheless, the right retained its majority from 2002 despite losing some 40 seats to the Socialists.

Taking place so shortly after the presidential poll, these elections provided the newly elected president with a legislative majority in line with his political objectives – as was the case in 2002, when presidential victor Jacques Chirac's UMP party received a large majority in the legislative elections. It is the first time since the 1978 elections that the governing coalition has been returned after a second consecutive election. The majority, however, was slimmer than the "blue wave" predicted by opinion polls (blue being the colour of French conservatives).

Election system[edit]

The procedure by which deputies are elected is a mixture of first past the post and run-off systems. A candidate must take an absolute majority (more than 50%) in their constituency to win in the first round, and receive the support of at least 25% of all registered voters. Otherwise, if they get at least 12.5% of the votes of all registered voters in the first round, or are one of the top two candidates remaining, they go through to the second round, where only a simple plurality is needed to win.

In most cases, there are only two candidates remaining for the second round: one left-wing (generally from the Socialist Party) and one right-wing (generally from the Union for a Popular Movement). Triangulaires happen when a third candidate reaches the second round and refuses to either abandon his candidacy or to enter any form of electoral alliance. In 2007, only one constituency experienced a triangulaire in the second round (in which Jean Lassalle, a MoDem candidate, was elected).

The Constitutional Council had beforehand warned the government of the necessity to renew the electoral map, as the 577 electoral districts are made on the basis of the 1982 census of the population (thus being 25 years late on the current spread-out of the population). Because of this miscorrelation between the electoral map and the geographical map of the population, a deputy would need only 5,000 votes to be elected in some districts (such as in Saint-Barthélemy) while it would need 180,000 votes in others (such as the Seine-Saint-Denis[1]). The Constitutional Council noted that this contradicted article 6 of the 1789 Declaration of the Rights of Man and of the Citizen as well as articles 3 and 24 of the Constitution.[2]

Campaign[edit]

Electoral posters for the first round

Opinion polls and seat projections gave President Nicolas Sarkozy's UMP-led coalition a wide lead, sometimes nearing three-quarters of all 577 seats. The UMP polled marginally above 40%, around a 10-point increase over its score of 33% in the first round of the 2002 elections. Prime Minister François Fillon, also a candidate in Sarthe, led the UMP campaign. On the far-right, following Jean-Marie Le Pen's relatively low score in the presidential election, the National Front tried to regain lost ground in the legislative election, but opinion polls gave the FN only 4 or 5 per cent of votes, one of its lowest scores in a general election.

Socialist Party[edit]

The Socialist Party's defeated 2007 presidential candidate, Ségolène Royal, also campaigned on behalf of her party, even though she did not run for re-election as a deputy in Deux-Sèvres. The Socialists sought to prevent the UMP from winning too wide a majority that would give Sarkozy "full powers".

Union for French Democracy[edit]

Between the two rounds of the presidential election, the UDF leader François Bayrou had announced the creation of a new political party, the Democratic Movement (MoDem), and refused to continue the alliance between centrists and the UMP. This strategy was dangerous for the centrist MPs, one month before the legislative election. Indeed, the ballot system for the election of the deputies favoured the coalitions to the detriment of the isolated parties. In this, contrary to Bayrou, the most part of the UDF deputies and senators called to vote for Nicolas Sarkozy in the second round of the presidential election, then joined the "Presidential Majority" and founded the New Centre. Incumbent president of the UDF group in the National Assembly, Hervé Morin, led this new political formation and was nominated Defense Minister. For the first time, François Bayrou was challenged by a right-wing candidate in his constituency.

Interest in one local election race surrounded Gérard Vignoble of the UDF, who had represented Roubaix since 1988. Vignoble announced that he would not stand again since this would put him against cardiologist Salem Kacet of the UMP, who had operated on him in 1999 and saved his life. The two candidates had become close friends. Vignoble said that it was impossible for him to come to any other decision.[3] Nevertheless, Kacet still failed to take the seat, the winner being the Socialist Dominique Baert.

French Communist Party[edit]

The Communists hoped that their vote would hold up following their lowest percentage vote ever (1.93%) in the presidential race in May. While polls seemed unfriendly to the Communists, with some predicting less than 10 seats for the party, the second round's left surge prevented a massive Communist defeat. Although losing seats, they were able to gain or hold 15 seats. However, the PCF lost previously safe seats.

VAT Polemic[edit]

During the electoral TV programme of the first round, the former Socialist Prime Minister Laurent Fabius called out to the Minister of Economy Jean-Louis Borloo about the project of a new VAT to finance the social security. Borloo confirmed it was examined by the government. This new tax was the main theme of campaign between the two rounds. It was criticized by the left because it could rise the prices for all the housekeepings. This project was perceived as contradictory to candidate Sarkozy's promise to be "President of the purchasing power". According to the former UMP Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin, in re-mobilizing the left-wing voters, this controversy caused the defeat of around 60 UMP candidates in the second round. In this, if the right stood majoritary, the left won 49 seats since 2002. Accused to be responsible of this result, Jean-Louis Borloo was nominated Minister of Ecology, replacing Alain Juppé, beatten in his constituency.

Results[edit]

e • d Summary of the 10 and 17 June 2007 French National Assembly elections results
Parties and coalitions First round Second round Total
Votes  % Seats Votes  % Seats Seats  %
Union for a Popular Movement (Union pour un mouvement populaire) UMP 10,289,737 39.54% 98 9,460,710 46.36% 215 313 54.25%
New Centre (Nouveau centre) (under Majorité présidentielle banner) NC 616,440 2.37% 8 433,057 2.12% 14 22 3.81%
Miscellaneous Right (Divers droite) DVD 641,842 2.47% 2 238,588 1.17% 7 9 1.56%
Movement for France (Mouvement pour la France) MPF 312,581 1.20% 1 1 0.17%
Presidential Majority (Right) 11,860,600 45.58% 109 10,132,355 49.65% 236 345 59.79%
Socialist Party (Parti socialiste) PS 6,436,520 24.73% 1 8,624,861 42.27% 185 186 32.24%
French Communist Party (Parti communiste français) PCF 1,115,663 4.29% 0 464,739 2.28% 15 15 2.60%
Miscellaneous Left (Divers gauche) DVG 513,407 1.97% 0 503,556 2.47% 15 15 2.60%
Radical Party of the Left (Parti radical de gauche) PRG 343,565 1.32% 0 333,194 1.63% 7 7 1.21%
The Greens (Les Verts) VEC 845,977 3.25% 0 90,975 0.45% 4 4 0.69%
United Left 9,255,132 35.56% 1 10,017,325 49.10% 226 227 39.34%
Democratic Movement (Mouvement démocrate) MoDem 1,981,107 7.61% 0 100,115 0.49% 3 3 0.52%
Regionalists and separatists REG 133,473 0.51% 0 106,484 0.52% 1 1 0.17%
Miscellaneous (Divers) DIV 267,760 1.03% 0 33,068 0.16% 1 1 0.17%
National Front (Front national) FN 1,116,136 4.29% 0 17,107 0.08% 0 0 0%
Other far-left including Revolutionary Communist League (Ligue communiste révolutionnaire) and Workers' Struggle (Lutte ouvrière) ExG 888,250 3.41% 0 0 0%
Hunting, Fishing, Nature, Traditions (Chasse, pêche, nature, traditions) CPNT 213,427 0.82% 0 0 0%
Other ecologists ECO 208,456 0.80% 0 0 0%
Other far-right including National Republican Movement (Mouvement national républicain) ExD 102,124 0.39% 0 0 0%
Total 26,026,465 100% 110 20,406,454 100% 467 577 100%
Valid votes 26,026,465 98.13% 20,406,454 96.58%
Spoilt and null votes 495,357 1.87% 722,585 3.42%
Votes cast / turnout 26,521,822 60.42% 21,129,039 59.98%
Abstentions 17,374,011 39.58% 14,096,209 40.02%
Registered voters 43,895,833 35,225,248
Source: Official Voting Results: Ministry of the Interior
Composition of seats of each political party in the French National Assembly
Composition of the Assembly following the 2007 elections

Contrary to the polls, the UMP lost ground, but it maintained a workable majority. The Socialists unexpectedly gained seats. Their plea to voters to prevent an overwhelming UMP dominance of the legislature appears to have paid off, providing the Socialists with a measure of redemption from the election loss. UDF splinter groups, François Bayrou's MoDem and the New Centre, contested their first elections. MoDem won 4 seats (including Mayotte regionalist Abdoulatifou Aly), while the New Centre was able to form a parliamentary group, with 22 seats. It remains to be seen whether Bayrou's party, which polled the third highest vote (7.61% in round one), will develop into a major political force. Their result is an improvement on the UDF's result of 4.9% in 2002. The National Front (FN) polled its lowest vote since its splash onto the political scene in 1986. The FN lost more than 60% of its support base since 2002. Support for the Communist Party also declined, and they saw a loss of several seats, whilst several other left-wing parties won nine new seats. The Greens gained one new seat, despite a fall in their vote. One of the most stunning results was the surprise defeat of UMP party leader Alain Juppé by the Socialist Party candidate Michèle Delaunay. Culture Minister Renaud Donnedieu de Vabres was defeated as well losing to Socialist Party candidate Jean-Patrick Gille. The far right did not win any seats.

Popular vote (first round)
UMP
  
39.54%
PS
  
24.73%
MoDem
  
7.61%
FN
  
4.29%
PCF
  
4.29%
EXG
  
3.41%
The Greens
  
3.25%
DVD
  
2.47%
NC
  
2.37%
DVG
  
1.97%
PRG
  
1.32%
MPF
  
1.20%
Others
  
3.55%

Change since 2002[edit]

Party +/- % +/- Seats R1 +/- Overall seats
  UMP +6.24 +50 -44
  UDF-MD* +2.76 -6 -26
  UDF-NC* +2.37 +7 +22
  Others +1.03 ±0 1
  Miscellaneous Left +0.88 ±0 +9
  LO-LCR +0.62 ±0 ±0
  PS +0.62 ±0 +46
  MPF +0.40 +1 ±0
  Regionalists +0.25 ±0 +1
  PRG -0.23 ±0 ±0
  Ecologists -0.37 ±0 ±0
  PCF -0.53 ±0 -6
  CPNT -0.85 ±0 ±0
  Miscellan. Right -0.82 -1 +1
  Far-right -0.94 ±0 ±0
  Greens -1.26 ±0 +1
  FN -7.05 ±0 ±0

*Both formed from a split of the UDF, a traditionally centre-right party, in early 2007. The MoDems pursued a path of independence from the right-wing while the Nouveau Centre supported Nicolas Sarkozy (and was supported by the UMP).

13th Assembly by Parliamentary Group[edit]

Group Leader Parties Seats Caucusing Total
  UMP Group (Union pour un Mouvement Populaire) Jean-François Cope UMP, DVD 314 6 320
  Socialist, Radical, and Citizen Group (Groupe socialiste, radical, et citoyen) Jean-Marc Ayrault PS, PRG, DVG, MRC 186 18 204
  Democratic and Republican Left (Gauche démocrate et républicaine) Jean-Claude Sandrier PCF, VEC, DVG, MIM 24 0 24
  New Centre-Presidential Majority (Nouveau Centre-Majorité Présidentielle) François Sauvadet NC-PSLE, MAJ, DVD 20 3 23
  Non-Inscrits MoDem, DLR, MPF 6 0 6
Total: 551 26 577

Opinion polls[edit]

Party Results
2002
CSA
06/05
Ifop
11/05
Ipsos
15/05
BVA
15/05
TNS
21/05
Ispos
23/05
BVA
24/05
CSA
24/05
Ipsos
25/05
Ifop
25/05
Ipsos
26/05
Ipsos
28/05
Ispos
29/05
TNS
29/05
Ipsos
30/05
Ipsos
31/05
Ipsos
01/06
Ipsos
02/06
Ipsos
04/06
Ipsos
05/06
BVA
07/06
Ipsos
08/06
TNS
08/06
CSA
08/06
Ipsos
09/06
  UMP-NC
33.3%
35.0% 37.0% 40.0% 36.0% 40.0% 41.5% 42.0% 37.0% 43.5% 41.0% 43.0% 43.5% 43.0% 42.0% 43.5% 43.5% 43.5% 43.0% 42.5% 41.5% 42.0% 43.0% 41.5% 41.0% 41.5%
  PS
24.1%
30.0% 28.0% 28.0% 30.0% 28.0% 29.0% 30.0% 26.0% 27.5% 27.5% 28.0% 28.5% 29.5% 27.0% 29.5% 29.5% 29.5% 29.0% 29.0% 29.0% 28.0% 28.0% 29.5% 28.0% 29.5%
  UDF-MD
4.8%
15.0% 14.0% 10.0% 12.0% 15.0% 8.5% 9.0% 12.0% 9.5% 12.0% 9.5% 9.0% 8.5% 10.0% 7.5% 7.0% 7.5% 8.0% 9.0% 9.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 7.0% 10.0%
  FN
11.3%
8.0% 7.0% 8.0% 8.0% 3.5% 5.5% 5.0% 8.0% 5.0% 6.0% 4.5% 4.0% 4.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 5.0% 5.0% 4.0% 6.0% 5.5%
  PCF
4.8%
2.0% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 4.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.0% 3.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 3.0% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 4.0% 3.5%
  Greens
4.5%
1.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.5% 3.5% 5.0% 2.5% 4.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.5%
  LO-LCR
2.5%
3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 2.5%
  Others
17.4%
6.0% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 3.5% 4.0% 3.0% 4.0% 4.5% 4.0% 5.0% 4.0% 4.5% 6.0% 5.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 7.0% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 5.0%
Graphical representation of polling since early May. UMP-NC: blue; PS: pink; MoDem: orange; FN gray


Seat projections[edit]

Party Results
2002
Ifop
15/05
BVA
18/05
TNS
21/05
CSA
29/05
Ipsos
29/05
Ifop
30/05
TNS
30/05
Ifop
02/06
Ipsos
06/06
BVA
07/06
TNS
08/06
CSA
08/06
Ipsos
09/06
  UMP-NC 357 336–390 321–392 365–415 353–407 401–442 410–450 410–430 420–460 361–406 366–419 390–430 390–420 364–404
  PS 141 149–190 151–200 137–153 132–182 102–142 90–130 101–142 80–120 115–158 120–173 115–155 110–154 114–162
  PCF 21 9–13 14–21 2–9 6–14 6–12 6–10 4–10 9–15 5–10 6–14 4–10 4–14 5–10
  UDF-MD 29 0–8 0–4 2–10 1–6 1–6 0–6 2–6 0–4 1–6 1–4 2–6 1–6 2–6
  MPF 1 0–2 N/A 2–3 2–3 N/A 2 2–3 2 N/A 0–3 2–3 2–3 N/A
  Greens 3 0–4 1–2 1–2 1–4 0–2 0–2 1–3 0–2 0–2 1–3 1–3 1–3 0–2
  FN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
  LO-LCR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
  Others 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21–24(NC) 0 0 0 21–24(NC)

2nd round[edit]

Party Results
2002
Ipsos
13/06
BVA
14/06
TNS
14/06
Ipsos
16/06
  UMP 357 388–422 394–434 380–410 358–395
  NC 0 20–23 N/A 21–23 20–23
  PS 141 115–146 105–131 125–155 140–175
  PCF 21 8–15 10–16 10–15 11–16
  UDF-MD 29 2–3 1–3 1–2 2–3
  MPF 1 2 2 2 2
  Greens 3 1–3 1–3 1–3 2–4
  FN 0 0 0 0 0
  LO-LCR 0 0 0 0 0
  Others 17 0 0 2 0

References[edit]

  1. ^ Le Canard enchaîné, 6 June 2007, "Une proportionnelle dans le tiroir" (French)
  2. ^ Observations of the Constitutional Council, 7 July 2007 (French)
  3. ^ source: France 2 news, Thursday, 17 May 2007

External links[edit]