Future of robotics

Main article: Robotics

TOPIO, a robot can play table tennis with humans.

This article is about the future of robotics for civil use.

Types of robots

Humanoid robots:

• Lara is the first female humanoid robot with artificial muscles (metal alloy strands that instantly contract when heated by electric current) [1] [2] instead of electric motors (2006).
• Asimo is one of the most advanced projects as of 2009.

Modular robots: can be built from standard building blocks that can be combined in different ways.

• Utility fog
• M-Tran - a snake-like modular robot that uses genetic algorithms to evolve walking programs
• Self replicating robots [3] [4] - modular robots that can produce copies of themselves using existing blocks.
• Swarmanoid [5] [6] is a project that uses 3 specialized classes of robots (footbots, handbots and eyebots) to create an effective swarm. Such swarm should be able, for example, tidy a bedroom with each robot doing what it is best at.
• Self-Reconfiguring Modular Robotics

Educational toy robots:

• Educational toy robots

Sports robots:

• RoboCup
• TOPIO

Applications

• Caterpillar plans to develop remote controlled machines and expects to develop fully autonomous heavy robots by 2021 [7]. Some cranes already are remote controlled.
• It was demonstrated that a robot can perform a herding [8] task.
• Robots are increasingly used in manufacturing (since 1960s). In auto industry they can amount for more than half of the "labor". There are even "lights off" factories such as an IBM keyboard manufacturing factory in Texas that are 100% automated.
• Robots such as HOSPI [9] are used as couriers in hospitals, etc. Other hospital tasks performed by robots are receptionists, guides and porters helpers, [10] (not to mention surgical robot helpers such as Da Vinci)
• Robots can serve as waiters [11] [12] and cooks [13].

Market evolution

Today's market is not fully mature. One or more software compatibility layers have yet to emerge to allow the development of a rich robotics ecosystem (similar to today's personal computers one). The most commonly used software in the robotics research are Free Software solutions such as Player/Stage or cross-platform technologies such as URBI. Microsoft is currently working in this direction with its new proprietary software Microsoft Robotics Studio. The use of open source tools helps in continued improvement of the tools and algorithms for robotic research from the point one team leaves it.

Impact on the economy and job market

Some analysts such as Martin Ford, author of The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future, argue that as information technology advances, robots and other forms of automation will ultimately result in significant unemployment as machines and software begin to match and exceed the capability of workers to perform most routine jobs.

As robotics and artificial intelligence develop further, even many skilled jobs may be threatened. Technologies such as machine learning may ultimately allow computers to do many knowledge-based jobs that require significant education. This may result in substantial unemployment at all skill levels, stagnant or falling wages for most workers, and increased concentration of income and wealth as the owners of capital capture an ever larger fraction of the economy. This in turn could lead to depressed consumer spending and economic growth as the bulk of the population lacks sufficient discretionary income to purchase the products and services produced by the economy.

However, radical advances in other technological fields, such as nano manufacturing, may lead to prices of many products dropping drastically to little or nothing more than the atoms required to build it and transportation costs.

Projected robotics timeline

• Robots capable of manual labour tasks--
  • 2009 - robots that perform searching and fetching tasks in unmodified library environment, Professor Angel del Pobil (University Jaume I, Spain), 2004
  • 2015-2020 - every South Korean household will have a robot and many European, The Ministry of Information and Communication (South Korea), 2007
  • 2018 - robots will routinely carry out surgery, South Korea government 2007
  • 2022 - intelligent robots that sense their environment, make decisions, and learn are used in 30% of households and organizations - TechCast
  • 2030 - robots capable of performing at human level at most manual jobs Marshall Brain
  • 2034 - robots (home automation systems) performing most household tasks, Helen Greiner, Chairman of iRobot
• Military robots
  • 2015 - one third of US fighting strength will be composed of robots - US Department of Defense, 2006
  • 2035 - first completely autonomous robot soldiers in operation - US Department of Defense, 2006

• Developments related to robotics from the Japan NISTEP 2030 report :
  • 2013-2014 — agricultural robots (AgRobots,).
  • 2013-2017 — robots that care for the elderly
  • 2017 — medical robots performing low-invasive surgery
  • 2017-2019 — household robots with full use.
  • 2019-2021 — Nanorobots
  • 2021-2022 — Transhumanism

Robot rights

According to research commissioned by the UK Office of Science and Innovation's Horizon Scanning Centre , robots could one day demand the same citizen's rights as humans. The study also warns that the rise of robots could put a strain on resources and the environment.

See also

• Robotics
• Robot

References

• http://future.wikia.com/wiki/Robot

External links

• Future of Robotics
• Future Robotics - The Human Algorithm
• Investigation of social robots - Robots that mimic human behaviors and gestures.
• Wired's guide to the '50 best robots ever', a mix of robots in fiction (Hal, R2D2, K9) to real robots (Roomba, Mobot, Aibo).
• RobotNet has its finger on the pulse of recent developments in robotics.
• Robotic Nation How robots will affect our economy.
• ANDROID WORLD
• Robot Info directory of robotics news, books, videos, magazines, forums and products.
• Quacktu robotics resources, links and a directory for robotics hobbyists.