Global Peace Index

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World map of the Global Peace Index. Countries appearing more blue are ranked as more peaceful on the Index, countries appearing more red are ranked as less peaceful.

The Global Peace Index (GPI) is an attempt to measure the relative position of nations’ and regions’ peacefulness. It is maintained by the Institute for Economics and Peace and developed in consultation with an international panel of peace experts from peace institutes and think tanks with data collected and analysed by the Economist Intelligence Unit. The list was launched first in May 2007 and then in May 2008 and recently on 2 June 2009 and is claimed to be the first study to rank countries around the world according to their peacefulness. The study is the brainchild of Australian entrepreneur Steve Killelea and is endorsed by individuals such as Kofi Annan, the Dalai Lama, archbishop Desmond Tutu, former President Martti Ahtisaari, Muhammad Yunus, economist Jeffrey Sachs, former president of Ireland Mary Robinson and former US president Jimmy Carter. Factors examined by the authors include internal factors such as levels of violence and crime within the country and factors in a country's external relations such as military expenditure and wars.

[edit] Methodology

The research team was headed by The Economist Intelligence Unit in conjunction with academics and experts in the field of peace. They measured countries' peacefulness based on wide range of indicators, 24 in all. A table of the indicators is below.^[1] In the table, UCDP stands for the Uppsala Conflict Data Program maintained by the University of Uppsala in Sweden, EIU for The Economist Intelligence Unit, UNSCT for the United Nations Survey of Criminal Trends and Operations of Criminal Justice Systems, ICPS is the International Center for Prison Studies at King's College London, IISS for the International Institute for Strategic Studies publication The Military Balance 2007, SIPRI for the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Arms Transfers Database, and BICC for the Bonn International Center for Conversion.

#	Indicator	Source	Year(s)	Coding
1	Number of external and internal wars fought	UCDP	2000 to 2005	Total number^[2]
2	Estimated deaths due to external wars	UCDP	2004 to 2005	Total number^[2]
3	Estimated deaths due to internal wars	UCDP	2004 to 2005	Total number^[2]
4	Level of organized internal conflict	EIU	2007	Qualitative scale, ranked 1 to 5
5	Relations with neighbouring countries	EIU	2007	Qualitative scale, ranked 1 to 5
6	Level of distrust in other citizens	EIU	2007	Qualitative scale, ranked 1 to 5
7	Number of displaced persons as percentage of population	World Bank	2003	Refugee population by percentage of the origin country's population
8	Political instability	EIU	2007	Qualitative scale, ranked 1 to 5
9	Level of respect for human rights (political terror scale)	Amnesty International	2005	Qualitative measure
10	Potential for terrorist acts	EIU	2007	Qualitative scale, ranked 1 to 5
11	Number of homicides	UNSCT	2004 and 2002	Intentional homicides, including infanticide, per 100,000 people
12	Level of violent crime	EIU	2007	Qualitative scale, ranked 1 to 5
13	Likelihood of violent demonstrations	EIU	2007	Qualitative scale, ranked 1 to 5
14	Number of jailed persons	ICPS	2006	Persons incarcerated per 100,000 people
15	Number of police and security officers	UNSCT	2002 and 2000	Civil security officers per 100,000 people^[3]
16	Military expenditure as a percentage of GDP	IISS	2004	Cash outlays for armed forces, as a percentage of GDP^[4]
17	Number of armed services personnel	IISS	2004	Full-time military personnel per 100,000 people
18	Imports of major conventional weapons	SIPRI	2001 to 2005	Imports of major conventional weapons per 100,000 people^[5]
19	Exports of major conventional weapons	SIPRI	2001 to 2005	Exports of major conventional weapons per 100,000 people^[5]
20	United Nations deployments	IISS	2006 to 2007	Total number
21	Non-United Nations deployments	IISS	2006 to 2007	Total number
22	Number of heavy weapons	BICC	2003	Weapons per 100,000 people^[6]
23	Ease of access to small arms and light weapons	EIU	2007	Qualitative scale, ranked 1 to 5
24	Military capability or sophistication	EIU	2007	Qualitative scale, ranked 1 to 5

Indicators not already ranked on a 1 to 5 scale were converted by using the following formula: x=(x-Min(x))/(Max(x)-Min(x)) where Max(x) and Min(x) are the highest and lowest values for that indicator of the countries ranked in the index. The 0 to 1 scores that resulted were then converted to the 1 to 5 scale. Individual indicators were then weighted according to the research team's judgment of their importance. The scores were then tabulated into two weighted sub-indices: internal peace, weighted at 60% of a country's final score, and external peace, weighted at 40% of a country's final score.^[7]

The main findings of the Global Peace Index are:

Peace correlated to indicators such as income, schooling and the level of regional integration (source and numerical coefficient?)
Peaceful countries often shared high levels of transparency of government and low corruption
Small, stable countries which are part of regional blocks are most likely to get a higher ranking.^[8]

Statistical analysis was applied to discover more specific drivers of peace. Specifically, the research team looked for indicators that were included and excluded from the index that had high levels of correlation with the overall score and rank of countries. Among the statistically significant indicators that were not used in the analysis were the functionality of a country's government, regional integration, hostility to foreigners, importance of religion in national life, and GDP per capita.^[9]

Notably absent from the 2007 study are Belarus, Iceland, many African nations, Mongolia, North Korea and Afghanistan. They were not included because reliable data for the 24 indicators was not available.^[10]

[edit] Criticism and response to criticism

The Economist, in publishing the index, admitted that, "the index will run into some flak." Specifically, according to The Economist, the weighting of military expenditure "may seem to give heart to freeloaders: countries that enjoy peace precisely because others (often the USA) care for their defense." The true utility of the index may lie not in its specific rankings of countries now, but in how those rankings change over time, thus tracking when and how countries become more or less peaceful.^[11]

The Peace Index has been criticised for not including indicators specifically relating to violence against women and children. Riane Eisler, writing in the Christian Science Monitor, argued that, "to put it mildly, this blind spot makes the index very inaccurate." She mentions a number of specific cases, including Egypt, where she claims 90% of women are subject to genital mutilation and China, where, she says, "female infanticide is still a problem," , according to a 2000 UNICEF study."^[12]

The Index has received endorsements from a number of major international figures, including the former Secretary-General of the United Nations Kofi Annan, former President of Finland and most recent Nobel Peace Prize laureate Martti Ahtisaari, the Dalai Lama, archbishop Desmond Tutu, Muhammad Yunus and former United States President Jimmy Carter.^[13] Steve Killelea, the Australian philanthropist who conceived the idea of the Index, argues that the Index "is a wake-up call for leaders around the globe."^[14]

[edit] Global Peace Index rankings

Nations considered more peaceful have lower index scores. Countries with rankings in green are in the most peaceful 20% for that year; those in red are in the bottom 20%.^[15]

Country	2009 Rank	2009 Score	2008 Rank	2008 Score	2007 Rank	2007 Score	2007–2008 Change
Afghanistan	143	3.285	137	3.126
Albania	75	1.925	79	2.044
Algeria	110	2.212	112	2.378	107	2.503	−05
Angola	100	2.105	110	2.364	112	2.587	+02
Argentina	66	1.851	56	1.895	52	1.923	+01
Australia	19	1.476	27	1.652	25	1.664	−02
Austria	5	1.252	10	1.449	10	1.483	0
Azerbaijan	114	2.327	101	2.287	101	2.448	0
Bahrain	69	1.881	74	2.025	62	1.995	−12
Belarus	98	2.103	94	2.194
Bangladesh	90	2.045	86	2.118	86	2.219	0
Belgium	15	1.359	15	1.485	11	1.498	−04
Bhutan	40	1.667	26	1.616	19	1.611	−07
Bolivia	81	1.990	78	2.043	69	2.052	−09
Bosnia and Herzegovina	50	1.755	66	1.974	75	2.089	+09
Botswana	34	1.643	46	1.792	42	1.786	−04
Brazil	85	2.022	90	2.168	83	2.173	−07
Bulgaria	56	1.775	57	1.903	54	1.936	−03
Burkina Faso	71	1.905	81	2.062
Cambodia	105	2.179	91	2.179	85	2.197	−06
Cameroon	95	2.073	92	2.182	76	2.093	−16
Canada	8	1.311	11	1.451	8	1.481	−03
Central African Republic	133	2.733	134	2.857
Chad	138	2.880	135	3.007
Chile	20	1.481	19	1.576	16	1.568	−03
China	74	1.921	67	1.981	60	1.980	−07
Colombia	130	2.645	130	2.757	116	2.770	−14
Costa Rica	29	1.578	34	1.701	31	1.702	−03
Cote d'Ivoire	117	2.342	122	2.451	113	2.638	−09
Croatia	49	1.741	60	1.926	67	2.030	+07
Cuba	68	1.856	62	1.954	59	1.968	−03
Cyprus	48	1.737	52	1.847	51	1.915	−01
Czech Republic	11	1.328	17	1.501	13	1.524	−04
Democratic Republic of the Congo	139	2.888	128	2.707
Denmark	2	1.217	2	1.343	3	1.377	+01
Dominican Republic	70	1.890	82	2.069	74	2.071	−08
Ecuador	109	2.211	100	2.274	87	2.219	−13
Egypt	54	1.773	69	1.987	73	2.068	+04
El Salvador	94	2.068	89	2.163	89	2.244	0
Equatorial Guinea	61	1.801	64	1.964	71	2.059	+07
Estonia	38	1.661	35	1.702	28	1.684	−07
Ethiopia	128	2.551	121	2.439	103	2.479	−18
Finland	9	1.322	8	1.432	6	1.447	−02
France	30	1.579	36	1.707	34	1.729	−02
Gabon	51	1.758	55	1.878	56	1.952	+01
Germany	16	1.392	14	1.475	12	1.523	−02
Ghana	52	1.761	40	1.723	40	1.765	0
Greece	57	1.778	54	1.867	44	1.791	−10
Guatemala	111	2.218	103	2.328	93	2.285	−10
Haiti	116	2.330	109	2.362
Honduras	112	2.265	104	2.335	98	2.390	−06
Hong Kong			23	1.608	23	1.657	0
Hungary	27	1.575	18	1.576	18	1.575	0
Iceland	4	1.225	1	1.176
India	122	2.433	107	2.355	109	2.530	+02
Indonesia	67	1.853	68	1.983	78	2.111	+10
Iran	99	2.104	105	2.341	97	2.320	−08
Iraq	144	3.341	140	3.514	121	3.437	−19
Ireland	12	1.333	6	1.410	4	1.396	−02
Israel	141	3.035	136	3.052	119	3.033	−17
Italy	36	1.648	28	1.653	33	1.724	+05
Jamaica	102	2.111	96	2.226	81	2.164	−15
Japan	7	1.272	5	1.358	5	1.413	0
Jordan	64	1.832	65	1.969	63	1.997	−02
Kazakhstan	84	2.018	72	2.018	61	1.995	−11
Kenya	113	2.266	119	2.429	91	2.258	−28
Kuwait	42	1.680	45	1.786	46	1.818	+01
Laos	45	1.701	51	1.810
Latvia	54	1.773	39	1.723	47	1.848	+08
Lebanon	132	2.718	132	2.840	114	2.662	−18
Libya\|	46	1.710	61	1.927	58	1.967	−03
Lithuania	43	1.687	41	1.723	43	1.788	+02
Luxembourg	13	1.341	9	1.446
Madagascar	72	1.912	43	1.770	41	1.766	−02
Malawi	47	1.711	73	2.024	68	2.038	−05
Malaysia	26	1.561	37	1.721	37	1.744	0
Mali	96	2.086	99	2.238
Mauritania	124	2.478	120	2.435
Mexico	108	2.209	93	2.191	79	2.125	−14
Moldova	75	1.925	83	2.091	72	2.059	−11
Mongolia	89	2.040	88	2.155
Morocco	63	1.811	63	1.954	48	1.893	−15
Mozambique	53	1.765	50	1.803	50	1.909	0
Myanmar	126	2.501	126	2.590	108	2.524	−18
Namibia	65	1.841	77	2.042	64	2.003	−13
Netherlands	22	1.531	22	1.607	20	1.620	−02
New Zealand	1	1.202	4	1.350	2	1.363	−02
Nicaragua	61	1.801	59	1.919	66	2.020	+07
Nigeria	129	2.602	129	2.724	117	2.898	−12
North Korea	131	2.717	133	2.850
Norway	2	1.217	3	1.343	1	1.357	−02
Oman	21	1.520	25	1.612	22	1.641	−03
Pakistan	137	2.859	127	2.694	115	2.697	−12
Panama	59	1.798	48	1.797	45	1.798	−03
Papua New Guinea	93	2.059	95	2.224	88	2.223	−07
Paraguay	73	1.916	70	1.997	55	1.946	−15
Peru	79	1.972	80	2.046	70	2.056	−10
Philippines	114	2.327	113	2.385	100	2.428	−13
Poland	32	1.599	31	1.687	27	1.683	−04
Portugal	14	1.348	7	1.412	9	1.481	+02
Qatar	16	1.392	33	1.694	30	1.702	−03
Republic of Macedonia	88	2.039	87	2.119	82	2.170	−05
Republic of the Congo	106	2.202	117	2.417
Romania	31	1.591	24	1.611	26	1.682	+02
Russia	136	2.750	131	2.777	118	2.903	−13
Rwanda	86	2.027	76	2.030
Saudi Arabia	104	2.167	108	2.357	90	2.246	−18
Senegal	80	1.984	71	2.011	65	2.017	−06
Serbia	78	1.951	85	2.110	84	2.181	−01
Singapore	23	1.533	29	1.673	29	1.692	0
Slovakia	24	1.539	20	1.576	17	1.571	−03
Slovenia	9	1.322	16	1.491	15	1.539	−01
Somalia	142	3.257	139	3.293
South Africa	123	2.437	116	2.412	99	2.399	−17
South Korea	33	1.627	32	1.691	32	1.719	0
Spain	28	1.577	30	1.683	21	1.633	−09
Sri Lanka	125	2.485	125	2.584	111	2.575	−14
Sudan	140	2.922	138	3.189	120	3.182	−18
Sweden	6	1.269	13	1.468	7	1.478	−06
Switzerland	18	1.393	12	1.465	14	1.526	+02
Syria	92	2.049	75	2.027	77	2.106	+02
Taiwan	37	1.652	44	1.779	36	1.731	−08
Tanzania	59	1.796	58	1.919	57	1.966	−01
Thailand	118	2.353	118	2.424	105	2.491	−13
Trinidad and Tobago	87	2.035	98	2.230	94	2.286	−04
Tunisia	44	1.698	47	1.797	39	1.762	−08
Turkey	121	2.389	115	2.403	92	2.272	−23
Turkmenistan	101	2.110	102	2.302
Uganda	103	2.140	114	2.391	104	2.489	−10
Ukraine	82	2.010	84	2.096	80	2.150	−04
United Arab Emirates	40	1.667	42	1.745	38	1.747	−04
United Kingdom	35	1.647	49	1.801
United States of America	83	2.015	97	2.227	96	2.317	−01
Uruguay	25	1.557	21	1.606	24	1.661	+03
Uzbekistan	106	2.202	111	2.377	110	2.542	−01
Venezuela	120	2.381	123	2.505	102	2.453	−21
Vietnam	39	1.664	37	1.720	35	1.729	−02
Yemen	119	2.363	106	2.352	95	2.309	−11
Zambia	58	1.779	53	1.856	53	1.930	0
Zimbabwe	134	2.736	124	2.513	106	2.495	−18