Global recession
A global recession is a period of global economic slowdown. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) takes many factors into account when defining a global recession, but it states that global economic growth of 3 percent or less is "equivalent to a global recession".[1][2] By this measure, four periods since 1985 qualify: 1990–1993, 1998, 2001–2002 and 2008–2009.[3][4]
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Overview [edit]
Informally, a national recession is a period of declining economic output. In a 1974 New York Times article, Julius Shiskin suggested several rules of thumb to identify a recession, which included two successive quarterly declines in gross domestic product (GDP), a measure of the nation's output.[5] This two-quarter metric is now a commonly held definition of a recession. In the United States, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is regarded as the authority which identifies a recession and which takes into account several measures in addition to GDP growth before making an assessment. In many developed nations other than USA, the two-quarter rule is also used for identifying a recession.[6]
Whereas a national recession is identified by two quarters of decline, defining a global recession is more difficult, because developing nations are expected to have a higher GDP growth than developed nations.[7] According to IMF, the real GDP growth of the emerging and developing countries is on an uptrend and that of advanced economies is on a downtrend since late 1980s. The world growth is projected to slow from 5% in 2007 to 3.75% in 2008 and to just over 2% in 2009. Downward revisions in GDP growth vary across regions. Among the most affected are commodity exporters, and countries with acute external financing and liquidity problems. Countries in East Asia (including China) have suffered smaller declines because their financial situations are more robust. They have benefited from falling commodity prices and they have initiated a shift toward macroeconomic policy easing.[7]
The IMF estimates that global recessions seem to occur over a cycle lasting between 8 and 10 years. During what the IMF terms the past three global recessions of the last three decades, global per capita output growth was zero or negative.[3]
See also [edit]
- 2000s energy crisis
- 2007–2008 world food price crisis
- 2007–2012 global financial crisis
- 2008–2012 global recession
- The Great Depression
References [edit]
- ^ "The world economy Bad, or worse". Economist.com. 2008-10-09. Retrieved 2009-04-15.
- ^ Lall, Subir. "IMF Predicts Slower World Growth Amid Serious Market Crisis," International Monetary Fund, April 9, 2008. [1]
- ^ a b "Global Recession Risk Grows as U.S. `Damage' Spreads. Jan 2008". Bloomberg.com. 2008-01-28. Retrieved 2009-04-15.
- ^ http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/update/01/index.htm IMF Jan 2009 update
- ^ Achuthan, Lakshman (2008-05-06). "The risk of redefining recession, Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, Economic Cycle Research Institute, May 7, 2008". Money.cnn.com. Retrieved 2009-04-15.
- ^ Japan's Economy Shrinks 0.4%, Confirming Recession By Jason Clenfield
- ^ a b "IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update - Rapidly Weakening Prospects Call for New Policy Stimulus - November 2008". Imf.org. 2008-11-06. Retrieved 2009-04-15.
External links [edit]
- The Thirty-Five Most Tumultuous Years in Monetary History: Shocks and Financial Trauma, by Robert Aliber. Presented at the IMF
- Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions The National Bureau Of Economic Research
- Independent Analysis of Business Cycle Conditions - American Institute for Economic Research (AIER)
