Clinical prediction tools have been developed to estimate patients' risk of perioperative cardiac complications. These tools are derived by looking for an association between preoperative variables (e.g., patient's age, type of surgery, comorbid diagnoses, or laboratory data) and the risk for cardiac complications in a cohort of surgical patients (the "derivation cohort"). Variables that have independent predictive value in a logistic regression analysis are incorporated into the risk index. Ideally, the accuracy and validity of the risk index is then tested in a separate cohort (the "validation cohort"). In 1977 Goldman, et al., developed the first cardiac risk index, which included nine variables associated with an increased risk of perioperative cardiac complications. This became known as the Original Cardiac Risk Index (or alternatively the Goldman Index). In 1999, Lee et al. published a cardiac risk index derived from 2893 patients and validated in 1422 patients aged ≥ 50 undergoing major noncardiac surgery, which became known as the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI). Lee identified six independent variables that predicted an increased risk for cardiac complications. A patient's risk for perioperative cardiac complications increased with number of variables that were present.
Revised Cardiac Risk Index
1. History of ischemic heart disease
2. History of congestive heart failure
3. History of cerebrovascular disease (stroke or transient ischemic attack)
4. History of diabetes requiring preoperative insulin use
5. Chronic kidney disease (creatinine > 2 mg/dL)
6. Undergoing suprainguinal vascular, intraperitoneal, or intrathoracic surgery
Risk for cardiac death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and nonfatal cardiac arrest:
Compared with the Original Cardiac Risk Index, the RCRI was easier to use and more accurate. The RCRI was used widely in clinical practice, research, and was incorporated into the 2007 preoperative cardiac risk evaluation guideline from the American Heart Association and American College of Cardiology.
^Goldman, L.; Caldera, D. L.; Nussbaum, S. R.; Southwick, F. S.; Krogstad, D.; Murray, B.; Burke, D. S.; O'Malley, T. A.; Goroll, A. H.; Caplan, C. H.; Nolan, J.; Carabello, B.; Slater, E. E. (1977). "Multifactorial Index of Cardiac Risk in Noncardiac Surgical Procedures". New England Journal of Medicine297 (16): 845–850. doi:10.1056/NEJM197710202971601. PMID904659.
^Lee, T. H.; Marcantonio, E. R.; Mangione, C. M.; Thomas, E. J.; Polanczyk, C. A.; Cook, E. F.; Sugarbaker, D. J.; Donaldson, M. C.; Poss, R.; Ho, K. K.; Ludwig, L. E.; Pedan, A.; Goldman, L. (1999). "Derivation and prospective validation of a simple index for prediction of cardiac risk of major noncardiac surgery". Circulation100 (10): 1043–1049. doi:10.1161/01.CIR.100.10.1043. PMID10477528.
^Fleisher, L. A.; Beckman, J. A.; Brown, K. A.; Calkins, H.; Chaikof, E.; Fleischmann, K. E.; Freeman, W. K.; Froehlich, J. B.; Kasper, E. K.; Kersten, J. R.; Riegel, B.; Robb, J. F.; Smith Jr, S. C.; Jacobs, A. K.; Adams, C. D.; Anderson, J. L.; Antman, E. M.; Buller, C. E.; Creager, M. A.; Ettinger, S. M.; Faxon, D. P.; Fuster, V.; Halperin, J. L.; Hiratzka, L. F.; Hunt, S. A.; Lytle, B. W.; Nishimura, R.; Ornato, J. P.; Page, R. L.; Riegel, B. (2007). "ACC/AHA 2007 Guidelines on Perioperative Cardiovascular Evaluation and Care for Noncardiac Surgery: Executive Summary". Journal of the American College of Cardiology50 (17): 1707–1732. doi:10.1016/j.jacc.2007.09.001. PMID17950159.