Great Recession in the Americas

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North America was one of the focal points of the global, Great Recession. While Canada has managed to return their economy nearly to the levels they enjoyed prior to the recession,[1] the United States and Mexico are still under the influence of the worldwide economic slowdown. The cost of staple items dropped dramatically in the United States as a result of the recession.

North America[edit]

U.S.[edit]

Number of U.S. household properties subject to foreclosure actions by quarter

The United States entered 2008 during a housing market correction, a subprime mortgage crisis and a declining dollar value.[2] In February, 63,000 jobs were lost,[3] a 5-year record.[4] In September, 159,000 jobs were lost, bringing the monthly average to 84,000 per month from January to September 2008.[5]

Federal reserve rates changes[6]
Date Discount rate Discount rate Discount rate Fed funds Fed funds rate
Primary Secondary
rate change new interest rate new interest rate rate change new interest rate
Apr 30, 2008 -.25% 2.25% 2.75% -.25% 2.00%
Mar 18, 2008 -.75% 2.50% 3.00% -.75% 2.25%
Mar 16, 2008 -.25% 3.25% 3.75%
Jan 30, 2008 -.50% 3.50% 4.00% -.50% 3.00%
Jan 22, 2008 -.75% 4.00% 4.50% -.75% 3.50%

Canada[edit]

Canada was one of the last industrialized nations to enter into a downturn. GDP growth was negative in Q1, but positive in Q2 and Q3 of 2008. The recession officially started in Q4. The almost 1-year delay of the start of the recession in Canada relative to the U.S. is largely explained by two factors. First, Canada has a strong banking sector[7] not weighed-down by the same degree of consumer-related debt issues that existed in the United States.[8] The United States economy collapsed from within, while the Canadian economy is being hurt by its trade relationship with the United States. Second, commodity prices continued to rise through to June 2008, supporting a key component of the Canadian economy and delaying the start of recession. In early December 2008, the Bank of Canada, in announcing that it was lowering its central bank interest rate to the lowest level since 1958, also declared that Canada's economy was entering in recession.[9] The Bank of Canada has since announced that it has two consecutive months of GDP decline (Oct -0.1% & Nov -0.7%). The country's unemployment rate could rise to 7.5% in the next two years, according to the latest OECD report.[10]

On July 23, 2009, the Bank of Canada officially declared the recession to be over in Canada.[11] However, the true economic recovery did not begin until November 30, 2009.[12] The Canadian economy would expand at an annualized rate of 6.1% in the first quarter (January–April) of 2010, surpassing analyst expectations and marking the best growth rate since 1999.[13] Economists had expected annualized GDP growth of 5.9% in the last quarter, up from 5% in last year's fourth quarter (September–December 2009).[13] The growth in the first quarter is the third straight quarter of economic expansion in Canada, coming on the heels of three consecutive quarters of contraction.[13] March growth came in at 0.6%, ahead of the 0.5% estimate.[13] 215,900 new jobs have been created in the winter and early spring months of 2010 alone - in the traditional period of time where the Canadian economy is at its most stagnant.

Even with the steps taken to create jobs in the Canadian economy, its recovery remains fragile[14] and job cuts can still be seen in areas that specialize in manual labor.

Mexico[edit]

Despite the solid financial system of Mexico, the effects of the financial crisis originated in the United States impacted Mexico's export sector by a significant amount considering that 85% of the country's exports go to the United States.[15] Reduced demand, the highest unemployment rate in almost a decade and the depreciation of the Mexican peso caused analysts to revise growth estimates officially from 1.8% to somewhere closer to 0% for 2008.[16][17]

The recession did not show up until 2009, but the recession already slowed down in 2008. The country had a positive growth of 1.5% in 2008 compared to a 3.3% in 2007, by 2009 the economy had shrunk by 6.5%, a percentage bigger than that of the 1994-1995 crisis[18] and the largest in almost eight decades and registering an inflation of 3.57%[19]

Economic recovery from the historic downturn started in the late 2009 with exports rising 22.8 percent.[20] The economic prospects for 2010 in the early 2009 were of a positive growth of 3.5 [21] and some saw a steady recovery by the second quarter of 2010.[22] At the end of 2010, the OECD revealed an estimated growth of 4.5 percent[23] while the Mexican government estimated a growth of over 5 percent[24] and the creation of 730 thousand jobs.[25]

The estimated growth for 2011 range from 3.9 to 4.8.[26] Despite the sustained growth in 2010, it was not enough to cover up the loss of 2009.

South America[edit]

As it mainly consists of commodity exporters, South America was not directly affected by the financial turmoil, even if the bond markets of Brazil, Argentina, Colombia and Venezuela have been hit.[27]

On the other hand, the continent experienced a tough agricultural crisis at the beginning of 2008.[28] Food prices have increased a lot, due to a lack of arable land. One of the main reasons for the loss of agricultural land was the high value offered by the production of biofuels. Food prices, rising since 2002, ascended from 2006, reaching a peak during the first quarter of 2008. In one year the average price of food rose by about 50%.

Then South American countries were affected by both the global slowdown and the decrease in food prices due to the declining demand.[29] In June 2008, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) declared it expected a 4% growth for 2009. However at the end of the year it predicted that the year 2009 would put an end to six years of prosperity during which Latin America has benefited from high raw materials prices.[30] Production in the region is likely to decline and unemployment to increase.[31][32] However, the Center for Economic and Policy Research has estimated that the region may be able to cope with the global downturn with the right macro-economic policies, as these countries no longer depend on the U.S. economy.[33]

Timeline of the Great Recession across all continents[edit]

The table below display all national recessions appearing in 2006-2013 (for the 71 countries with available data), according to the European recession definition, saying that a recession occurred whenever seasonally adjusted real GDP contracts quarter on quarter, through minimum two consecutive quarters. Only 11 out of the 71 listed countries with quarterly GDP data (Poland, Slovakia, Moldova, India, China, South Korea, Indonesia, Australia, Uruguay, Colombia and Bolivia) escaped a recession in this time period.

The few recessions appearing early in 2006-07 are commonly never associated to be part of the Great Recession, which is illustrated by the fact that only two countries (Iceland and Jamaica) were in recession in Q4-2007.

One year before the maximum, in Q1-2008, only six countries were in recession (Iceland, Sweden, Finland, Ireland, Portugal and New Zealand). The number of countries in recession was 25 in Q2‑2008, 39 in Q3‑2008 and 53 in Q4‑2008. At the steepest part of the Great Recession in Q1‑2009, a total of 59 out of 71 countries were simultaneously in recession. The number of countries in recession was 37 in Q2‑2009, 13 in Q3‑2009 and 11 in Q4‑2009. One year after the maximum, in Q1‑2010, only seven countries were in recession (Greece, Croatia, Romania, Iceland, Jamaica, Venezuela and Belize).

The recession data for the overall G20-zone (representing 85% of all GWP), depict that the Great Recession existed as a global recession throughout Q3‑2008 until Q1‑2009.

Subsequent follow-up recessions in 2010‑2013 were confined to Belize, El Salvador, Paraguay, Jamaica, Japan, Taiwan, New Zealand and 24 out of 50 European countries (including Greece). As of October 2013, only seven out of the 71 countries with available quarterly data (Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Slovenia, Croatia, Belize and El Salvador), were still in ongoing recessions.[34][35] The many follow-up recessions hitting the European countries, are commonly referred to as being direct repercussions of the European sovereign‑debt crisis.

Country[a] Recession period(s) during 2006‑2013[34][35]
(measured by quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally adjusted real GDP,
as per the latest revised Q3-2013 data from 10 January 2014)
[b]
Albania 2007-Q1Q1-2007 until Q2-2007 (6 months)[36]
Q3-2009 until Q4-2009 (6 months)[36]
Q4-2011 until Q1-2012 (6 months)[36]
Argentina 2008-Q4Q4-2008 until Q2-2009 (9 months)
Australia No
Austria 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months)
Q3-2011 until Q4-2011 (6 months)
Belgium 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Q1-2009 (9 months)
Q2-2012 until Q1-2013 (12 months)
Belize 2006-Q1Q1-2006 until Q2-2006 (6 months)[37]
Q1-2007 until Q3-2007 (9 months)[37]
Q4-2008 until Q1-2009 (6 months)[37]
Q4-2009 until Q1-2010 (6 months)[37]
Q1-2011 until Q2-2011 (6 months)[37]
Q2-2013 until Ongoing (6 months)[37]
Bolivia No[38][c]
Brazil 2008-Q4Q4-2008 until Q1-2009 (6 months)
Bulgaria 2009-Q1Q1-2009 until Q2-2009 (6 months)
Canada 2008-Q4Q4-2008 until Q2-2009 (9 months)
Chile 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)
China No
Colombia No[39][40]
Costa Rica 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)[41]
Croatia 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Q2-2010 (24 months)
Q3-2011 until Q4-2012 (18 months)
Q2-2013 until Ongoing (6 months)
Cyprus 2009-Q1Q1-2009 until Q4-2009 (12 months)
Q3-2011 until Ongoing (27 months)
Czech Republic 2008-Q4Q4-2008 until Q2-2009 (9 months)
Q4-2011 until Q1-2013 (18 months)
Denmark 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Q2-2009 (12 months)
Q3-2011 until Q4-2011 (6 months)
Q4-2012 until Q1-2013 (6 months)
Ecuador 2006-Q4Q4-2006 until Q1-2007 (6 months)[42]
Q1-2009 until Q3-2009 (9 months)[43][44]
El Salvador 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Q2-2009 (12 months)[45][d]
Q2-2013 until Ongoing (6 months)[45][d]
Estonia 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Q3-2009 (15 months)
Q1-2013 until Q2-2013 (6 months)
EU (28 member states) 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months)
Q4-2011 until Q2-2012 (9 months)
Q4-2012 until Q1-2013 (6 months)
Eurozone (17 member states) 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months)
Q4-2011 until Q1-2013 (18 months)
Finland 2008-Q1Q1-2008 until Q2-2009 (18 months)
Q2-2012 until Q1-2013 (12 months)
France 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months)
Q4-2012 until Q1-2013 (6 months)
G20 (43 member states, PPP-weighted GDP)[e] 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Q1-2009 (9 months)
Germany 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)
Greece 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Ongoing (63 months)[48]
(not qoq-data, but quarters compared with same quarter of last year)[b]
Hong Kong 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)[49]
Hungary 2007-Q1Q1-2007 until Q2-2007 (6 months)
Q2-2008 until Q3-2009 (18 months)
Q2-2011 until Q3-2011 (6 months)
Q1-2012 until Q4-2012 (12 months)
Iceland 2007-Q4Q4-2007 until Q2-2008 (9 months)
Q4-2008 until Q1-2009 (6 months)
Q3-2009 until Q2-2010 (12 months)
India No
Indonesia No
Ireland 2007-Q2Q2-2007 until Q3-2007 (6 months)
Q1-2008 until Q4-2009 (24 months)
Israel 2008-Q4Q4-2008 until Q1-2009 (6 months)
Italy 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months)
Q3-2011 until Ongoing (27 months)
Jamaica 2007-Q3Q3-2007 until Q4-2007 (6 months)[50]
Q3-2008 until Q1-2009 (9 months)[50]
Q4-2009 until Q2-2010 (9 months)[50]
Q4-2011 until Q1-2012 (6 months)[50]
Q4-2012 until Q1-2013 (6 months)[50]
Japan 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)
Q4-2010 until Q2-2011 (9 months)
Q2-2012 until Q3-2012 (6 months)
Kazakhstan 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Q1-2009 (9 months)[51][f]
Latvia 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q3-2009 (18 months)
Lithuania 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Q2-2009 (12 months)
Luxembourg 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)
Macedonia 2009-Q1Q1-2009 until Q3-2009 (9 months)[52]
Q1-2012 until Q2-2012 (6 months)[52]
(not qoq-data, but quarters compared with same quarter of last year)[b]
Malaysia 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Q1-2009 (9 months)[53][54]
Malta 2008-Q4Q4-2008 until Q1-2009 (6 months)
Mexico 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Q2-2009 (12 months)
Moldova No[55][g]
Netherlands 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months)
Q2-2011 until Q1-2012 (12 months)
Q3-2012 until Q2-2013 (12 months)
New Zealand 2008-Q1Q1-2008 until Q2-2009 (18 months)
Q3-2010 until Q4-2010 (6 months)
Norway 2009-Q1Q1-2009 until Q2-2009 (6 months)
Q2-2010 until Q3-2010 (6 months)
Q1-2011 until Q2-2011 (6 months)
OECD (34 member states, PPP-weighted GDP) 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)
Paraguay 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Q1-2009 (9 months)[56]
Q2-2011 until Q3-2011 (6 months)[56]
Peru 2008-Q4Q4-2008 until Q2-2009 (9 months)[57]
Philippines 2008-Q4Q4-2008 until Q1-2009 (6 months)[58][59]
Poland No
Portugal 2007-Q2Q2-2007 until Q3-2007 (6 months)
Q1-2008 until Q1-2009 (15 months)
Q4-2010 until Q1-2013 (30 months)
Romania 2008-Q4Q4-2008 until Q2-2009 (9 months)
Q4-2009 until Q1-2010 (6 months)
Q4-2011 until Q1-2012 (6 months)
Russia 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Q2-2009 (12 months)
Serbia 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months)[60]
Q2-2011 until Q1-2012 (12 months)[60]
Q3-2012 until Q4-2012 (6 months)[60]
Singapore 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)[61][62][63][64][65]
Slovakia No
Slovenia 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Q2-2009 (12 months)
Q3-2011 until Ongoing (27 months)
South Africa 2008-Q4Q4-2008 until Q2-2009 (9 months)
South Korea No
Spain 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q4-2009 (21 months)
Q2-2011 until Q2-2013 (27 months)
Sweden 2008-Q1Q1-2008 until Q1-2009 (15 months)
Switzerland 2008-Q4Q4-2008 until Q2-2009 (9 months)
Taiwan 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)[66]
Q3-2011 until Q4-2011 (6 months)[66]
Thailand 2008-Q4Q4-2008 until Q1-2009 (6 months)[67]
Turkey 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)
Ukraine 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)[68]
Q3-2012 until Q4-2012 (6 months)[68][69][70]
United Kingdom 2008-Q2Q2-2008 until Q3-2009 (18 months)[71]
Q4-2011 until Q2-2012 (9 months)[71]
United States 2008-Q3Q3-2008 until Q2-2009 (12 months)
Uruguay No[72]
Venezuela 2009-Q1Q1-2009 until Q1-2010 (15 months)[73]
  1. ^ 105 out of the 206 sovereign countries in the World, did not publish any quarterly GDP data for the 2006‑2013 period. The following 21 countries were also excluded from the table, due to only publishing unadjusted quarterly real GDP figures with no seasonal adjustment: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Brunei, Dominican Republic, Egypt, Georgia, Guatemala, Iran, Jordan, Macao, Montenegro, Morocco, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Palestine, Qatar, Rwanda, Sri Lanka, Trinidad and Tobago, Vietnam.
  2. ^ a b c Only seasonally adjusted qoq-data can be used to accurately determine recession periods. When quarterly change is calculated by comparing quarters with the same quarter of last year, this results only in an aggregated -often delayed- indication, because of being a product of all quarterly changes taking place since the same quarter last year. Currently there is no seasonal adjusted qoq-data available for Greece and Macedonia, which is why the table display the recession intervals for these two countries only based upon the alternative indicative data format.
  3. ^ Bolivia had as of January 2014 only published seasonally adjusted real GDP data until Q1-2010, with the statistics office still to publish data for 2010-13.[38]
  4. ^ a b According to the methodology note for the quarterly GDP of El Salvador, this data series include seasonally adjustments.[46]
  5. ^ The G20-zone represents 85% of all GWP, and comprise 19 member states (incl. UK, France, Germany and Italy) along with the EU Commission as the 20th member, who represents the remaining 24 EU member states in the forum.[47]
  6. ^ Kazakhstan had as of January 2014 only published seasonally adjusted real GDP data until Q4-2009, with the statistics office still to publish data for 2010-13.[51]
  7. ^ Moldova had as of January 2014 only published seasonally adjusted real GDP data until Q4-2010, with the statistics office still to publish data for 2011-13.[55]


See also[edit]

References[edit]

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