Hungarian parliamentary election, 2014

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Hungarian parliamentary election, 2014
Hungary
2010 ←
members
6 April 2014 (2014-04-06)
→ 2018

All 199 seats in the Országgyűlés
100 seats needed for a majority
  First party Second party
  OrbanViktor 2011-01-07.jpg Mesterházy Attila 2009-12-14.JPG
Leader Viktor Orbán Attila Mesterházy
Party Fidesz Unity
Leader since 2003 2014
Last election 263 seats, 52.73% 59 seats, 19.30%
(MSZP only)
Seats won
133 / 199
38 / 199
Popular vote 2,135,891 1,246,465
Percentage 44.54% 25.99%
Swing Decrease 8.19% Increase 6.29%

  Third party Fourth party
  Vona Gabor.jpg SchifferAndras.jpg
Leader Gábor Vona András Schiffer
Party Jobbik LMP
Leader since 2006 2013
Last election 47 seats, 16.67% 16 seats, 7.47%
Seats won
23 / 199
5 / 199
Popular vote 985,029 252,373
Percentage 20.54% 5.26%
Swing Increase 3.87% Decrease 2.21%

Hungarian National Assembly 2014.svg

Composition of the National Assembly

Prime Minister before election

Viktor Orbán
Fidesz

Elected Prime Minister

Viktor Orbán
Fidesz

The 2014 Hungarian parliamentary election took place on 6 April 2014.[1] The result was a victory for Fidesz, with Viktor Orbán remaining Prime Minister.[2] It was the first election according to the new Constitution of Hungary which went into force on 1 January 2012. The new electoral law also entered into force that day. For the first time since Hungary's transition to democracy, the election had a single round. The voters elected 199 MPs instead of previous 386 lawmakers.[3][4]

Opinion polls[edit]

This chart illustrates the level of support for the Hungarian government party Fidesz among all eligible voters, as measured by the five polling institutions regularly conducting polling in Hungary, over the year 2013. Since many eligible Hungarian voters expressed no preference for any political party at all, these numbers are significantly lower than those for Fidesz support among decided voters.
This chart illustrates the level of support for the Hungarian government party Fidesz among decided voters, as measured by the five polling institutions regularly conducting polling in Hungary, over the year 2013. Please note the information in the footnotes about the selection and calculation of the Medián and Nézőpont numbers.

Methodological note: The Hungarian pollsters generally release separate data about the support of political parties among all eligible voters (which tends to include a high percentage for "don't know/no preference"), and about the support of political parties among "active" or "certain" voters. The table below refers to the latter data.[a]

Support for the main Hungarian political parties among decided voters, as measured by the five regular polling institutions. Please note the clarifications about the selection and calculation of the Medián and Nézőpont data, and the calculation of the Unity average for the first month.

Results[edit]

Summary of the 6 April 2014 election to the National Assembly (Országgyűlés)
Parties and coalitions Party list Constituency Total seats
Votes  % +/− Seats Votes Seats Seats +/−  % +/−
Fidesz – Hungarian Civic Union
Fidesz – Magyar Polgári Szövetség
Fidesz 2,135,891 44.54 Decrease8.19 30 2,097,882 87 117 Decrease110 66.83 Decrease1.3
Christian Democratic People's Party 7 9 16 Decrease20
Unity
Összefogás
Hungarian Socialist Party 1,246,465 25.99 Increase6.29 21 1,273,275 8 29 Decrease30 19.10 Increase3.82
Together 2014 New 2 1 3 New
Democratic Coalition 3 1 4
Dialogue for Hungary 1 0 1
Hungarian Liberal Party 1 0 1
Jobbik
Jobbik Magyarországért Mozgalom
985,029 20.54 Increase3.87 23 967,179 0 23 Decrease24 11.56 Decrease0.62
Politics Can Be Different (LMP)
Lehet Más a Politika
252,373 5.26 Decrease2.21 5 229,747 0 5 Decrease11 2.51 Decrease1.64
Hungarian Workers' Party
Magyar Munkáspárt
27,696 0.58 Increase0.47 0 12,460 0 0 Steady0 0 0
Homeland Not For Sale Movement Party (HNEM)
A Haza Nem Eladó Mozgalom Párt
22,657 0.47 New 0 22,284 0 0 New 0 0
Alliance of Mária Seres (SMS)
Seres Mária Szövetségesei
21,176 0.44 New 0 19,412 0 0 New 0 0
Green Party (Greens)
Zöldek Pártja
17,688 0.37 Increase0.37 0 9,007 0 0 Steady0 0 0
Hungarian Social Democrats' Party (Soc Dems)
Magyar Szociáldemokraták Pártja
14,603 0.3 Increase0.22 0 11,881 0 0 Steady0 0 0
Together 2014 Party
Együtt 2014 Párt
13,525 0.28 New 0 6,077 0 0 New 0 0
Party for a Fit and Healthy Hungary (SEM)
Sportos és Egészséges Magyarországért Párt
11,930 0.25 New 0 11,190 0 0 New 0 0
Community for Social Justice People's Party (KTI)
Közösség a Társadalmi Igazságosságért Néppárt
10,526 0.22 New 0 10,263 0 0 New 0 0
Democratic Community of Welfare and Freedom (JESZ)
Jólét és Szabadság Demokratikus Közösség
9,518 0.2 New 0 12,551 0 0 New 0 0
Gypsy Party of Hungary (MCP)
Magyarországi Cigány Párt
8,689 0.18 New 0 8,920 0 0 New 0 0
Independent Smallholders Party (FKGP)
Független Kisgazdapárt
7,808 0.16 Increase0.16 0 6,940 0 0 Steady0 0 0
Unity Party (ÖP)
Összefogás Párt
6,561 0.14 Increase0.07 0 6,562 0 0 Steady0 0 0
New Dimension Party (ÚDP)
Új Dimenzió Párt
2,036 0.04 New 0 1,638 0 0 New 0 0
New Hungary Party (ÚMP)
Új Magyarország Párt
1,516 0.03 New 0 1,944 0 0 New 0 0
Others and Independent candidates 33,297 0 0 Decrease1 0 Decrease0.26
Total (turnout 61.73%) 4,795,757 100% 93 4,742,509 106 199 Decrease187 100%
Source: National Election Office (99.99% reporting)
Turnout[5]
7:00 9:00 11:00 13:00 15:00 17:30 Overall
1.64% 9.5% 23.23% 34.33% 45.02% 56.77% 61.73%
133 38 23 5
Fidesz–KDNP Unity Jobbik LMP

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ In addition, confusingly, two pollsters publish parallel data even about "active" or "certain" voters. Thus, Medián publishes different numbers for the categories of "választani tudók" and "választani tudó "biztos" szavazók", though they don't tend to differ much – the data in the table here generally refers to the latter. Tárki's polling releases always highlight results about "A pártok támogatottsága a pártválasztók körében," and those are included in the table here (and can be reviewed further back into time in this database on their website), but their website also provides a separate database with somewhat different polling data on "A pártok támogatottságának alakulása a biztos szavazó pártválasztók körében". Finally, in February 2013 Nézőpont switched to a system in which it distinguishes between "the entire population" and "active voters", but even the "active voters" sample always includes a percentage of those who are "undecided but favour a change in government" and a percentage of those who are "undecided altogether". Those numbers are given in the footnotes for each Nézőpont poll in the table.
  2. ^ Includes 1% for 4K! – Fourth Republic!.
  3. ^ This poll has 20% undecideds, of which 10% fully undecided and 10% undecided but in favour of a change in government.
  4. ^ This poll has 17% undecideds, of which 9% fully undecided and 8% undecided but in favour of a change in government.
  5. ^ This poll has 15% undecideds, of which 6% fully undecided and 9% undecided but in favour of a change in government.
  6. ^ This poll has 13% undecideds, of which 6% fully undecided and 7% undecided but in favour of a change in government.
  7. ^ This poll has 20.6% undecideds, of which 11.6% fully undecided and 9% undecided but in favour of a change in government.
  8. ^ This poll has 26% undecideds, of which 12% fully undecided and 14% undecided but in favour of a change in government.
  9. ^ This poll has a separate share of undecideds, which Nézőpont usually breaks down between those fully undecided and those undecided but in favour of a change in government. This month that data does not appear to have been published though, but a total of 26% must have fallen in those two categories or expressed support for DK or the smallest parties ("Others").
  10. ^ This poll has 17% undecideds, of which 10% fully undecided and 7% undecided but in favour of a change in government. In addition, this time the Nézőpont poll also provides data for "potenciális szavazók", which add up to 100%, leaving no number of undecided voters. The proportions are substantively different in this data, to the advantage of the MSzP: Fidesz 44%, MSzP 25%, Jobbik 14%, LMP 6%, DK 3%, E2014 7%.
  11. ^ This poll has 18% undecideds, of which 10% fully undecided and 8% undecided but in favour of a change in government. In addition, this time the Nézopont poll also provides data for "potenciális szavazók", which add up to 100%, leaving no number of undecided voters. The proportions are substantively different in this data, to the advantage of the MSzP and E2014: Fidesz 42%, MSzP 23%, Jobbik 13%, LMP 6%, DK 4%, E2014 10%, Others 2%.
  12. ^ This poll has 21% undecideds, of which 16% fully undecided and 5% undecided but in favour of a change in government.
  13. ^ Includes 1% for Hungarian Liberal Party.
  14. ^ This poll has 14% undecideds, of which 12% fully undecided and 2% undecided but in favour of a change in government.
  15. ^ This poll has 14% undecideds, of which 9% fully undecided and 5% undecided but in favour of a change in government.
  16. ^ This poll had 20% undecideds, of which 13% were fully undecided and 7% were undecided but in favour of a change in government. The figures presented represent decided voters.
  17. ^ This poll had 19% undecideds, of which 13% were fully undecided and 6% undecided but in favour of a change in government. The figures presented represent decided voters.
  18. ^ In addition to its polling data, Median provided a forecast for the election results: Fidesz/KDNP 38-44%; Unity 26-32%; Jobbik 21-25%; LMP 3-5%. See http://median.hu/object.cd804c1b-7e19-4376-ac97-b8089b67b753.ivy
  19. ^ This polling data does not include the "active voters" category which Nezopont used (and this table reflected) since February 2013. It only has data for "the entire population", with 27% undecideds and non-voters, and for "potential voters", with no undecideds at all. This table therefore uses the latter data.
  20. ^ In addition to this polling data for decided voters, Ipsos provided a forecast for the election results: Fidesz/KDNP 40-45%; Unity 26-31%; Jobbik 19-23%; LMP 4-6%.

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Áder sets date of 2014 election for April 6". 18 January 2014. Retrieved 18 January 2014. 
  2. ^ "Hungary election: PM Viktor Orban heads for victory". bbc. 
  3. ^ Az országgyűlési képviselők választásáról szóló 2011. évi CCIII. törvény. In.: Magyar Közlöny. 2011. évi, 165. sz., 41095-41099. p.
  4. ^ "Életbe lép az új választójogi törvény". Magyar Nemzet. 29 December 2011. Retrieved 2 January 2012.  (Hungarian)
  5. ^ "Tájékoztató adatok a választáson megjelentek számáról és arányáról" (in Hungarian). National Election Office. Retrieved 6 April 2014.