ITEM club

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The ITEM, in 'The EY ITEM Club' stands for Independent Treasury Economic Model. The EY ITEM Club are economic forecasting group based in the United Kingdom. They produce quarterly economic UK forecasts, which are often mentioned in the UK news media.[1] It was founded in 1977 and is sponsored by EY (Ernst & Young LLP) a leading firm of business and financial advisers with some 144,000 staff in 140 countries.[2] Founded in 1977, ITEM is said to be independent of any political, academic or commercial bias. Its independence is underpinned by the untied sponsorship of EY. The club was officially name "The EY ITEM Club" in 2012.

The UK model is used by HM Treasury for its policy analysis and biannual Industry Act forecasts for the Budget. This enables ITEM to explore the implications and unpublished assumptions behind Government forecasts and policy measures. Uniquely, ITEM can test whether Government claims are consistent and can assess which forecasts are credible and which are not.

John Gaster is their chief economist, taking over from Paul Droop. Gaster began his career at the Bank of England, and more recently an economist and forecaster at Oxford Economic Forecasting.


  1. ^ "UK economic growth to slow over winter, says forecasters". BBC. 18 October 2010. Retrieved 18 October 2010. 
  2. ^ "Our people", Ernst & Young corporate website. Retrieved on 2010-01-05.

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