Indonesian presidential election, 2014

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Indonesian presidential election, 2014
Indonesia
2009 ←
9 July 2014 → 2019

Turnout 69.58%[1]
  Joko Widodo, 2012. Prabowo Subianto
Nominee Joko Widodo Prabowo Subianto
Party PDI–P Gerindra
Running mate Jusuf Kalla Hatta Rajasa
Popular vote 70,997,833 62,576,444
Percentage 53.15% 46.85%

2014IndonesianPresidentialElectionMap.png

Results of the election showing the candidates with the largest share of votes in each of the 33 provinces of Indonesia. Joko Widodo: red; Prabowo Subianto: crimson.

President before election

Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono
Demokrat

Elected President

Joko Widodo
PDI–P

The 3rd Indonesian presidential election was held on 9 July 2014[2] and matched former general Prabowo Subianto against the governor of Jakarta, Joko Widodo; incumbent president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono was constitutionally barred from seeking a third term in office.[3][4] On 22 July the General Elections Commission announced Joko Widodo's victory. He and his vice-president, Jusuf Kalla, were sworn-in on 20 October 2014, for a 5-year term.

According to the 2008 election law, only parties or coalitions controlling 20% of DPR seats or winning 25% of the popular votes in the 2014 parliamentary elections are eligible to nominate a candidate. This law was challenged in the Constitutional Court,[5] but in late January 2014 the Court ruled that the requirement would stand for this election.[6] No party exceeded the threshold in the 2014 legislative elections, therefore two coalitions were formed.

Arrangement for the election[edit]

Arrangements for the conduct of elections in Indonesia are carried out under the supervision of the General Elections Commission (Komisi Pemilihan Umum, or KPU).[7]

The presidential elections in 2014 will be carried out in accordance with the Law, (Undang-undang, or UU) No 42 of 2008 about the election of a President and Vice-President.[8]

Arrangements for nominations

An important requirement, set out in Law No 42 of 2008 (Clause 9), is that nominations of candidates for the presidential election may only be made by a party (or coalition of parties) which has at least 20% of the seats in the national parliament (the DPR, or the Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat) or which received 25% of national votes in the previous national legislative election for the DPR. In practice, these conditions set a rather high bar for nomination. The likelihood is that only candidates supported by one of the major parties, perhaps with some support from several of the minor parties, will be able to meet the conditions for nomination. Among other things, the effect of this requirement is likely to be a strict limit on the number of candidates who will be able to stand for the presidency.

Voting system[edit]

Indonesia is working towards e-voting in hope of implementing the new system in the 2014 general elections.[9] The basis of the e-voting system is electronic identity cards (e-KTP) which were expected to be ready nationwide by 2012 and have been tried in six districts/cities, namely Padang, West Sumatra; Denpasar, Bali; Jembrana, Bali; Yogyakarta, Java; Cilegon, West Java; and Makassar, (South Sulawesi).[10]

However, the system was not ready for the election. Therefore, voters still voted on paper by punching a hole in one of the two candidates' photograph, number, or name. The ballots were then collected and counted at the village level, then city/regency level, province level, and finally the national level.

Political parties[edit]

Candidates for president are nominated as individuals (along with a vice-presidential running partner); however, support from the main political parties is likely to play a key role in influencing the result. Partly for this reason, the highly changeable map of political parties in Indonesia contributes to the uncertainty of political trends in the run-up to the presidential election. In recent years, the number of political parties contesting major elections (for both national and regional parliaments, and the presidential elections) has varied considerably.

  • In 2004, 24 parties contested the national elections and 16 secured enough seats to be represented in the national parliament.
  • In 2009, 38 parties contested the national elections and 9 secured enough seats to be represented in the national parliament.
  • In 2014, 12 parties contested the national legislative elections on 9 April and three more were authorised to run candidates in Aceh. (Brief details of the parties are listed at the relevant page on website of the Electoral Commission.) It is expected that candidates for president who hope to mount an effective campaign will need to secure the support of at least one of the major parties as well as several other smaller parties. Details of the twelve main national parties who qualified to mount nation-wide political campaigns are as follows:

Summary of registered parties support in the 2014 presidential election (Nationwide; excluding Aceh-only parties)

Known as Party English name Supporting DPR seats DPR seats % Legislative votes %
Gerindra Partai Gerakan Indonesia Raya Great Indonesia Movement Party Nominee: Prabowo Subianto (Gerindra)
Running mate: Hatta Rajasa (PAN)
Majority coalition:
Gerindra/Golkar/PPP/PKS/PAN/Demokrat
353 / 560
63.04% 59.12%
Golkar Partai Golongan Karya Golkar
PPP Partai Persatuan Pembangunan United Development Party
PKS Partai Keadilan Sejahtera Prosperous Justice Party
PAN Partai Amanat Nasional National Mandate Party
PBB Partai Bulan Bintang Crescent Star Party
PD Partai Demokrat Democratic Party *
PDI–P Partai Demokrasi Indonesia – Perjuangan Indonesian Democratic Party – Struggle Nominee: Joko Widodo[11] (PDI-P)
Running mate: Jusuf Kalla (Golkar)
Minority coalition:
PDI–P/Hanura/NasDem/PKB
207 / 560
36.96% 40.88%
Hanura Partai Hati Nurani Rakyat People's Conscience Party
NasDem Partai Nasional Demokrat National Democratic Party
PKB Partai Kebangkitan Bangsa National Awakening Party
PKPI Partai Keadilan dan Persatuan Indonesia Indonesian Justice and Unity Party
  Does not pass 2014 Legislative Threshold
  • Parties that are in light grey shows that they do not pass the 2014 Legislative Threshold of 2.5% of the national legislative vote. They are also banned from participating the next election due to the failing of passing the Electoral Threshold of 2.5% of the national legislative vote in 2014.
  • The leader of Democratic Party and incumbent president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is officially neutral in the election.[12]

See also: List of political parties in Indonesia

Candidates[edit]

Nominated[edit]

Previously considered potential[edit]

Before the national legislative elections on 9 April 2014, the following candidates had declared their intention to run for President. Following the legislative elections, these candidates were unable to reach the threshold.

Party Candidate Details
Golkar Aburizal Bakrie Chairman of the Golkar party.[13] Formerly, there had been discontent in some quarters within the party about Bakrie's candidature. There had been some talk of a possible move to reconsider the decision to nominate him.[14] However Golkar now appears united behind him as the official candidate.
Hanura Wiranto Former Commander of the Indonesian Armed Forces, 2004 presidential candidate, and 2009 vice-presidential candidate[15]
Crescent Star Party Yusril Ihza Mahendra Former chairman of the Crescent Star Party. A top lawyer and a specialist in government laws of Indonesia.[16]
United Development Party Suryadharma Ali Chairman of the PPP(United Development Party). Recently been announced official suspect by the Corruption Eradication Commission(KPK) on the case of Umroh budget corruption.

Polling[edit]

NOTE: The quality of polling in Indonesia varies considerably. Furthermore, some of the polling institutions provide little information about their polling methods. The data set out below should therefore be treated with care.

Timeline[edit]

NOTE: The following timeline makes reference to some dates which refer to the national parliamentary elections due in mid-2014 as well as other events in addition to the presidential election. These dates are noted because events leading up to the national parliamentary elections will, in the minds of voters and party organisers, be closely linked to the presidential election.

Date Event Remarks
Jan 2014 Preparations During January and February the Democrat Party held public meetings in main towns in Indonesia to allow the main candidates for the Democrat Party nomination to test their support.[19]
March Campaigning Nation-wide campaigning for the national legislative (parliamentary and assembly) elections
6–8 April Cooling-off period
9 April Legislative elections Simultaneous national elections for the national parliament (DPR, 560 seats), 33 provincial assemblies (DPRD I, 2,137 seats) and 497 district (kabupaten and kota) assemblies (DPRD II, 17,560 seats)
See also: Indonesian legislative election, 2014
9 May Results Results of the legislative elections are required to be announced within 30 days of the polling day.[20]
Early May Nomination The names of all candidates running (jointly) for the positions of president and vice-president must be formally logged at the Indonesian Electoral Commission within seven days after the results of the legislative elections are announced (see above).[21]
31 May Announcement The General Elections Commission announce the names of the presidential candidates
4 June – 5 July Campaigning Nation-wide campaign by presidential candidates
6–8 July Cooling-off period No campaign of any form is allowed
9 July Election Presidential election
10–12 July Recapitulation At the sub-district level
10–14 July Recapitulation For ballots from abroad
13–15 July Recapitulation At the district level
16–17 July Recapitulation At the municipality/regency level
18–19 July Recapitulation At the province level
20–22 July Recapitulation At the national level
22–23 July Results Results of the presidential election are required to be announced within 14 days of the polling day.[20]
20 October Inauguration Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono completes his term and the seventh president is sworn in

Counting and results[edit]

Following the election on 9 July 2014, Joko Widodo announced his victory based on quick counts of votes from several zones; most of these independent pollsters indicated a Joko Widodo victory (52–53% of votes to Prabowo's 46–48%).[22] Prabowo also claimed victory, citing other polls.[23] As the official count continued, the KPU released scans of the tally (C1) forms from each polling station on its official website, allowing downloads of the official data.[24]

In the lead up to the official announcement of the official results by the KPU, Prabowo pushed for the Commission to delay the announcement by two weeks, allowing his party to investigate claimed manipulations of the voting process. This request was denied.[25] The Prabowo camp also called for a new vote in some zones.[26] However, several Prabowo supporters congratulated Joko Widodo on his election or conceded election. PAN politician Hanafi Rais, writing three days before the results were announced, sent a press release which stated "we congratulate Bapak Joko Widodo and Jusuf Kalla — who will helm the national leadership for the next five years".[1] The same day, Prabowo's campaign manager Mahfud M.D. returned his mandate to Prabowo, stating that the election was over;[1] he was replaced by Lt. Gen. Yunus Yosfiah on 22 July 2014.[27]

Out of fear that inter-party tension could lead to riots such as those which led to the downfall of former president Suharto, the Indonesian government deployed over 250,000 police officers throughout the country. In central Jakarta, hundreds of police were stationed – particularly around the KPU's offices.[28] Following bomb threats against Jakarta City Hall, after the KPU's announcement military officials tightened security around it Commission's headquarters.[29] A group of Prabowo supporters staged a non-violent protest near the offices.[28]

Prabowo withdrawal[edit]

On 22 July 2014, the day that the KPU was due to announce its official tally, Prabowo withdrew from the recapitulation process after having insisted on his victory since the initial quick counts were released. He attributed this withdrawal to Indonesia "failing in its duty to democracy" because of "massive cheating that is structured and systematic",[30] and stated that he and Hatta "exercise our constitutional right to reject the presidential election and declare it unconstitutional".[25] His speech, aired live, implied that he would challenge the results in the Constitutional Court (Mahkamah Konstitusi).[30][30] Later reports indicated confusion over whether Prabowo had resigned from the election or simply rejected the count.[26]

According to Douglas Ramage, Managing Director for Indonesia at BowerGroupAsia,[31] this was the first time since reformasi (the Reformation) began in 1998 that the legitimacy of the election process has been questioned; he declared that the country was entering "uncharted territory".[25] The legality of a Prabowo challenge is questionable, as – if he withdrew – he is no longer considered a presidential candidate.[25] If he can make the challenge, according to The Jakarta Post, the gap between the two candidates is sufficient to make such a challenge difficult.[32] Under the presidential election law, Prabowo could face up to six years in prison and a 100 billion rupiah ($10 million) fine for withdrawing.[25][30]

Following the announcement, the value of the Indonesian rupiah dropped by 0.3 percent, and the JSX Composite fell by 0.9 percent.[26] Observers denied Prabowo's allegations of cheating, finding that the elections were "generally fair and free"; Maswadi Rauf of the University of Indonesia stated that there were "no sign of significant fraud", and that Prabowo's withdrawal simply reflected "the real attitudes of the elite, who are not yet ready to accept losing".[33] In a survey, 90 percent of the Indonesian populace were satisfied with the KPU's handling of the election.[24]

Announcement and reaction[edit]

After Prabowo's withdrawal, his witnesses also left the announcement ceremony. However, the official tally continued; the Commission chief, Husni Kamil Manik, said that they had already fulfilled their obligations by inviting the witnesses.[34] A victory for Joko Widodo was expected,[26] and realised hours later, although the initially planned 4:00 p.m. announcement was delayed for four hours.[34] The Commission gave Joko Widodo a victory of 53.15 percent of the vote (representing 70.99 million voters), to Prabowo's 46.85 percent (62.57 million votes).[32] This was the closest vote in the history of free elections in the country; the two previous elections, in 2004 and 2009, had been landslide victories for Yudhoyono.[35]

The Prabowo camp continued to reject the KPU's count, announcing that they trusted the count provided by the PKS, which gave a Prabowo victory, more than the Commission's.[24] Prabowo's camp later stated that it intended to report the KPU to the police for continuing its recapitulation despite calls for a delay and questions of the vote's validity.[24]

After the announcement, Joko Widodo stated that, growing up under the authoritarian and corrupt New Order, he would have never expected someone with a lower-class background to become president. The New York Times reported him as saying, "now, it's quite similar to America, yes? There is the American dream, and here we have the Indonesian dream.".[36] Joko Widodo was the first Indonesian president to not be from the military or the political elite, and the political commentator Salim Said gave the popular view of the politician "someone who is our neighbour, who decided to get into politics and run for president".[36]

The Singaporean prime minister, Lee Hsien Loong, posted his congratulations on Twitter minutes after the election, expressing hope that Joko Widodo would work towards improving relations between the two countries.[37] Tony Abbott, Prime Minister of Australia, stated that Joko Widodo's election was a "milestone" for the development of democracy in Indonesia, and stated his hope that the two countries' relations could be reinforced following a decline caused by espionage scandals and human trafficking.[38] US President Barack Obama also congratulated Jokowi and is also willing to improve relations between Indonesia and US.[39] However, Prabowo asked for world leaders to withhold congratulatory statements to Jokowi.

Appeal[edit]

A member of the Prabowo-Hatta campaign team outlined the 8 final moves that Prabowo plans to take to overturn the election result. These are:[40]

  1. File a lawsuit over the election result with the Constitutional Court
  2. Report alleged ethical violations by the General Elections Commission (KPU) to the Election Organizers Ethics Council (DKPP).
  3. File a report with the Election Supervisory Committee (Panwaslu).
  4. Report electoral violations to the police.
  5. Making a report to the Ombudsman.
  6. File a report with the State Administrative Court (PTUN) asking for the KPU on the election result to be annulled.
  7. Political maneuvering within the People's Representative Council (DPR) by establishing a Presidential Election Special Committee to evaluate the performance of the KPU. The maneuvering was done by parties within Prabowo-Hatta's coalition.
  8. A class action.

Prabowo Subianto took an appeal against the election result to the Constitutional Court of Indonesia, alleging "structured, systematic and massive" violations and that up to 24.1 million votes were "troubled". The first hearing was on 6 August. Hundreds of supporters were present outside the court.[41] On 21 August the court delivered a unanimous 9-0 verdict in favour of rejecting all aspects of the appeal. A spokesperson for Subianto stated that his team did not consider the ruling fair, but they would accept the court's judgement.[42] On the same day, the Election Organizers Ethics Council (DKPP) ruled that there had been some ethical violations. Of the nine local election commissioners dismissed for taking bribes, four of them took money from Prabowo's Gerindra Party.[43]

Official results[edit]

e • d Summary of 9 July 2014 Indonesian presidential election result[32]
Candidate Running mate Parties Votes  %
Joko Widodo Jusuf Kalla Indonesian Democratic Party – Struggle (Partai Demokrasi Indonesia-Perjuangan) 70,997,833 53.15
Prabowo Subianto Hatta Rajasa Great Indonesia Movement Party (Partai Gerakan Indonesia Raya) 62,576,444 46.85
Total 133,574,277 100.00
Valid votes 133,574,277 98.98
Spoilt and null votes 1,379,690 1.02
Turnout 134,953,967 69.58
Abstentions 58,990,183 30.42
Registered voters 193,944,150
Source: KPU
Votes by province Prabowo.jpg Gubernur DKI Jokowi.jpg Total votes
Prabowo Subianto
Gerindra
Joko Widodo
PDI–P
Votes % Votes %
Sumatra Aceh 1,089,290 54.93 913,309 45.61 2,002,599
North Sumatra 2,831,514 44.76 3,494,835 55.24 6,326,349
West Sumatra 1,797,505 76.92 539,308 23.09 2,336,813
Riau 1,349,338 50.12 1,342,817 49.88 2,692,155
Jambi 871,316 49.25 897,787 50.75 1,769,103
South Sumatra 2,132,163 51.26 2,027,049 48.74 4,159,212
Bengkulu 433,173 45.27 523,669 54.73 956,842
Lampung 2,033,924 46.93 2,299,889 53.07 4,333,813
Bangka-Belitung 200,706 32.74 412,359 67.26 613,065
Riau Islands 332,908 40.37 491,819 59.63 824,727
Java Banten 3,192,671 57.10 2,398,631 42.90 5,591,302
Jakarta 2,528,064 46.92 2,859,894 53.08 5,387,958
West Java 14,167,381 59.78 9,530,315 40.22 23,697,696
Central Java 6,485,720 33.35 12,959,540 66.65 19,445,260
Yogyakarta 977,342 44.19 1,234,249 55.81 2,211,591
East Java 10,277,088 46.83 11,669,313 53.17 21,946,401
Kalimantan West Kalimantan 1,032,354 39.62 1,573,046 60.38 2,605,400
Central Kalimantan 468,277 40.21 696,199 59.79 1,164,476
South Kalimantan 941,809 50.05 939,748 49.95 1,881,557
East Kalimantan
(including North Kalimantan)
687,734 36.62 1,190,156 63.38 1,877,890
Lesser Sunda Bali 614,241 28.58 1,535,110 71.42 2,149,351
West Nusa Tenggara 1,844,178 72.45 701,238 27.55 2,545,416
East Nusa Tenggara 769,391 34.08 1,488,076 65.92 2,257,467
Sulawesi North Sulawesi 620,095 46.12 724,553 53.81 1,344,648
Gorontalo 378,735 63.10 221,497 36.90 600,232
Central Sulawesi 632,009 45.13 767,151 54.87 1,399,160
Southeast Sulawesi 511,134 45.10 622,217 54.90 1,133,351
West Sulawesi 165,494 26.63 456,021 73.37 621,515
South Sulawesi 1,214,857 28.57 3,037,026 71.43 4,251,883
Maluku Maluku 433,981 49.48 443,040 50.52 877,021
North Maluku 306,792 54.45 256,601 45.55 563,393
Papua Papua 755,374 26.84 2,058,517 73.16 2,813,891
West Papua 172,528 32.37 360,379 67.63 532,907
Overseas 313,600 46.26 364,257 53.74 677,857

Quick count results[edit]

Source Candidate Error
Prabowo Subianto—Hatta Rajasa Joko Widodo—Jusuf Kalla
CSIS-Cyrus Network (Liputan6.com)[44] 48.1% 51.9% 1.25%
Indikator Politik Indonesia (MetroTVnews)[44] 47.05% 52.95% 0.20%
Kompas (Litbang)[44][45] 47.66% 52.34% 0.81%
Lingkaran Survei Indonesia[44] 46.43% 53.57% 0.42%
Pol Tracking[46] 46.63% 53.37% 0.22%
Populi Center (Suara.com; suara.com)[44] 49.05% 50.95% 2.20%
Radio Republik Indonesia (antaranews.com)[44][47] 47.32% 52.68% 0.47%
Saiful Mujani Research Center (SMRC)[44][48] 47.09% 52.91% 0.24%
Indonesia Research Centre (IRC; okezone.com)[44] 51.11% 48.89% 4.26%
Jaringan Suara Indonesia (JSI; Viva.co.id)[44] 50.13% 49.87% 3.28%
Lembaga Survei Nasional (Viva.co.id)[44] 50.56% 49.44% 3.71%
Puskaptis (Viva.co.id)[44] 52.05% 47.95% 5.20%
Official results 46.85% 53.15% 0.00%

References[edit]

  1. ^ a b c "Jokowi Confirmed Indonesia's Next President, But Still No Surrender From Desperate Prabowo". Jakarta Globe. 22 July 2014. Retrieved 22 July 2014. 
  2. ^ Hill, Cameron (28 March 2014). "Indonesia's 2014 national elections: a quick guide". Parliament of Australia. Retrieved 6 April 2014. 
  3. ^ Denny Indrayana (2008) Indonesian Constitutional Reform 1999–2002: An Evaluation of Constitution-Making in Transition, Kompas Book Publishing, Jakarta ISBN 978-979-709-394-5.
  4. ^ Law No. 42/2008 on the Election of the President and Vice-president (Indonesian)
  5. ^ Markus Junianto Sihaloho, 'Presidential Threshold Likely to Here to Stay', Jakarta Globe, 13 September 2013.
  6. ^ Ina Parlina, 'Ruling stymies Prabowo's bid', The Jakarta Post, 25 January 2014.
  7. ^ "KPU". KPU. Retrieved 12 July 2014. 
  8. ^ http://www.mahkamahagung.go.id/images/pdp/uu_42_2008.pdf
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  10. ^ "E- Voting System Can Be Used in Indonesia's 2014 Presidential Poll". Bernama. Retrieved 21 October 2012. 
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  12. ^ JK Apresiasi Sikap SBY yang Netral, Yahoo News, 5 July 2014 
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  14. ^ Bagus BT Suragih, 'Akbar sets six-month deadline for Aburizal', The Jakarta Post, 17 December 2012.
  15. ^ Wiranto officially runs for president', The Jakarta Post, 2 July 2013.
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  18. ^ Ramadhan, Bilal. "INES Klaim Hasil Survei Inginkan Capres Dari Militer". Republika Online. Retrieved 7 March 2014. 
  19. ^ Maftuh Basyuni: Our mandate is to seek a presidential candidate', Tempo, 22 December 2013.
  20. ^ a b This requirement is set out in the Law on the National Elections.
  21. ^ This requirement is set out in the Law on the Election of the President.
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  31. ^ http://www.bowergroupasia.com/The-Team.aspx#Ramage
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  33. ^ Niniek Karmini and Ali Kotarumalos (22 June 2014). "Jakarta Governor Wins Indonesian Presidency". ABC News. Archived from the original on 22 July 2014. Retrieved 22 July 2014. 
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  35. ^ Jonathan Thatcher and Kanupriya Kapoor (22 June 2014). "Indonesian president-elect Jokowi calls for unity after bitter election". Reuters. Archived from the original on 23 July 2014. Retrieved 23 July 2014. 
  36. ^ a b Joe Cochrane (22 July 2014). "Joko Widodo, Populist Governor, Is Named Winner in Indonesian Presidential Vote". The New York Times. Archived from the original on 22 July 2014. Retrieved 22 July 2014. 
  37. ^ Bagus BT Saragih (22 July 2014). "World leaders congratulate Jokowi". The Jakarta Post. Archived from the original on 23 July 2014. Retrieved 23 July 2014. 
  38. ^ "Australian PM congratulates Jokowi on Indonesia win". The Jakarta Post. 23 July 2014. Archived from the original on 23 July 2014. Retrieved 23 July 2014. 
  39. ^ "Obama congratulates Indonesia's incoming president Jokowi". Strait Times. Retrieved 20 October 2014. 
  40. ^ "8 Langkah Terakhir Prabowo (Prabowo's 8 Final Moves)" (in Indonesian). detik.com. 25 July 2014. Retrieved 28 July 2014.  |first1= missing |last1= in Authors list (help)
  41. ^ "Prabowo challenges Indonesia presidential election result". BBC. 6 August 2014. Retrieved 21 August 2014. 
  42. ^ "Subianto appeal denied as Indonesia court backs Widodo win". BBC. 21 August 2014. Retrieved 21 August 2014. 
  43. ^ "In Prabowo’s Complaint to Ethics Council, Verdict Finds Officials Took Bribes… From Gerindra". The Jakarta Globe. 21 August 2014. Retrieved 22 August 2014. 
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  47. ^ "Quick Count RRI: Prabowo-Hatta (47,64 %), (Jokowi-JK (52,34 %) – Sriwijaya Post". Palembang.tribunnews.com. 9 July 2014. Retrieved 19 July 2014. 
  48. ^ "Pemilu 2014 – Quick Count SMRC: Prabowo-Hatta 47,22%, Jokowi-JK 52,88". News.detik.com. 14 July 2014. Retrieved 19 July 2014.