|Born||May 8, 1958|
|Occupation||Author, political commentator|
John Richard Lott Jr. (born May 8, 1958) is an American economist and political commentator. Lott was formerly employed at various academic institutions including the University of Chicago, Yale University, the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, and the University of Maryland, College Park, and at the American Enterprise Institute conservative think tank. He is currently a Fox News opinion contributor. He holds a Ph.D. in economics from UCLA.
Lott has written for both academic and popular publications. He is a frequent writer of op-eds, and has written seven books, including More Guns, Less Crime, The Bias Against Guns, and Freedomnomics. His most recent book is At the Brink: Will Obama Push Us Over the Edge?
Lott is best known for his role in the gun rights debate, particularly his arguments against restrictions on owning and carrying guns. Nobel laureate Milton Friedman said that "John Lott has few equals as a perceptive analyst of controversial public policy issues." Newsweek also referred to Lott as "The Gun Crowd's Guru." Lott is also listed in "Who's Who in Economics."
Lott studied economics at UCLA, receiving his B.A. in 1980, M.A. in 1982, and Ph.D. in 1984. Lott has held positions in law and economics at several institutions, including the Yale Law School, Stanford, UCLA, the Wharton Business School, Texas A&M University, and Rice University. Lott was the chief economist at the United States Sentencing Commission (1988–1989). He spent five years as a visiting professor (1994–95) and as a fellow (1995–99) at the University of Chicago. Lott was a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute (2001–2006). He left AEI for SUNY Binghamton. From July 2007 to 2010, Lott was a senior research scientist at the University of Maryland Foundation at the University of Maryland, College Park.
Popular press and electronic media
Op-eds by Lott have appeared in such places as the Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, the Los Angeles Times, USA Today, and the Chicago Tribune. From March 2008 to February 2009, he was a weekly columnist for Fox News.
Concealed weapons and crime rate
In an 1997 article written with David B. Mustard and Lott's subsequent books More Guns, Less Crime and The Bias Against Guns, Lott argued that allowing adults to carry concealed weapons significantly reduces crime in America.
The work was immediately controversial, drawing both support and opposition. Several academics praised Lott's methodology, including Florida State University economist Bruce Benson, Cardozo School of Law professor John O. McGinnis, and University of Mississippi professor William F. Shughart.
Other reviews claimed that there were problems with Lott's model. In the New England Journal of Medicine, David Hemenway argued that Lott failed to account for several key variables, including drug consumption, and that therefore the model was flawed; however, Lott's book did account for other variables such as cocaine prices. Others agreed, and some researchers, including Ian Ayres and John J. Donohue, claimed that the model contained significant coding errors and systemic bias. Gary Kleck considered it unlikely that such a large decrease in violent crime could be explained by a relatively modest increase in concealed carry, and others claimed that removing portions of the data set caused the results to still show statistically significant drops only in aggravated assaults and robbery when all counties with fewer than 100,000 people and Florida's counties were both simultaneously dropped from the sample.
In 2004, the National Academy of Sciences conducted a review of current research and data on firearms and violent crime, including Lott's work, and found "no credible evidence that the passage of right-to-carry laws decreases or increases violent crime." James Q. Wilson dissented from that opinion, and while accepting the committee's findings on violent crime in general, he noted that the committee's own findings in several tests showed "that shall-issue laws drive down the murder rate".
Referring to the research done on the topic, The Chronicle of Higher Education reported that while most researchers support Lott's findings that right-to-carry laws reduce violent crime, some researchers doubt that concealed carry laws have any impact on violent crime, saying however that "Mr. Lott's research has convinced his peers of at least one point: No scholars now claim that legalizing concealed weapons causes a major increase in crime." As Lott critics Ian Ayres and John J. Donohue III pointed out: "We conclude that Lott and Mustard have made an important scholarly contribution in establishing that these laws have not led to the massive bloodbath of death and injury that some of their opponents feared. On the other hand, we find that the statistical evidence that these laws have reduced crime is limited, sporadic, and extraordinarily fragile."
In a 2008 Econ Journal Watch survey of the debate on right-to-carry laws, of peer-reviewed empirical academic studies, 10 supported the proposition that right-to-carry reduces crime, 8 supported no significant effect and none supported an increase. By 2012, there were 18 peer-reviewed studies that supported right-to-carry reduces crime, 10 supported no significant effect and one supported an increase. Other studies on the subject have been published in student-edited academic reviews or the commercial press.
Women's suffrage and government growth
Using data from 1870 to 1940, Lott and Larry Kenny studied how state government expenditures and revenue changed in 48 state governments after women obtained the right to vote. Women were able to vote in 29 states before women's suffrage and the adoption of the 19th Amendment to the Constitution. Lott stated that "women's suffrage coincided with immediate increases in state government expenditures and revenue and more liberal voting patterns for federal representatives, and these effects continued growing over time as more women took advantage of the franchise."
Media bias and defensive gun use
Lott argues in both More Guns, Less Crime and The Bias Against Guns that media coverage of defensive gun use is rare, noting that in general, only shootings ending in fatalities are discussed in news stories. In More Guns, Less Crime, Lott writes that "[s]ince in many defensive cases a handgun is simply brandished, and no one is harmed, many defensive uses are never even reported to the police".
Attempting to quantify this phenomenon, in the first edition of the book, published in May 1998, Lott wrote that "national surveys" suggested that "98 percent of the time that people use guns defensively, they merely have to brandish a weapon to break off an attack." In that same paragraph he also wrote that "[s]ince in many defensive cases a handgun is simply brandished, and no one is harmed, many defensive uses are never even reported to the police." The higher the rate of defensive gun uses that do not end in the attacker being killed or wounded, the easier it is to explain why defensive gun uses are not covered by the media without reference to media bias. Lott cited the figure frequently in the media, including publications like the Wall Street Journal and the Los Angeles Times.
In 2002, he repeated the study, and reported that brandishing a weapon was sufficient to stop an attack 95% of the time. Other researchers criticized his methodology, saying that his sample size of 1,015 respondents was too small for the study to be accurate and that the majority of similar studies suggest a value between 70 and 80 percent. Gary Kleck and Marc Gertz's 1994 estimate rises to 92 percent when brandishing and warning shots are added together. Lott explained the lower rates found by others was at least in part due to the different questions that were asked. The other surveys all asked people to recall events over the previous five years, while Lott had only asked people about events that had occurred during just the previous year. Lott used the higher estimate because it accounted for his claim of media bias. The survey questions have also been made available for years to anyone who would have liked to replicate the survey themselves.
Together with John Karpoff and Eric Wehrly at the University of Washington, Lott has worked to show the importance of government regulations through both legal and regulatory penalties and the weaknesses of reputational penalties in reducing pollution. Firms violating environmental laws suffer statistically significant losses in the market value of firm equity. The losses are of similar magnitudes to the legal penalties imposed; and in the cross section, the market value loss is related to the size of the legal penalty.
Affirmative action in police departments
Lott finds that when hiring standards are lowered in the process of recruiting more minority officers, the overall quality of all officers is reduced and crime rates are increased. The most adverse effects of these hiring policies have occurred in the most heavily black populated cities. There is no consistent evidence that crime rates rise when standards for hiring women are changed, and this raises questions about whether norming tests or altering their content to create equal pass rates is preferable. The paper examines how the changing composition of police departments affects such measures as the murder of and assaults against police officers.
Abortion and crime
With John Whitley at the University of Adelaide, Lott has considered crime rates and the possible influence of laws which place abortion decisions with the pregnant person other than boards of physicians. They acknowledge the old 1960s argument that abortion may prevent the birth of "unwanted" children, who would have relatively small investments in human capital and a higher probability of crime. On the other hand, their research suggests that liberalizing abortion rules correlates with an increase in out-of-wedlock births and single parent families. In turn, they argue that this increase in single parent births implies the opposite impact on investments in human capital (i.e., average investment per child decreases under their argument). Using the correlation between children in poverty and in single parent homes with crime they build an argument that liberalization of abortion laws increased murder rates by around about 0.5 to 7 percent.
Lott claims that most of the large recent increases in campaign spending for state and federal offices can be explained by higher government spending. Lott also supports the conclusion that higher quality judges, measured by their output once they are on the court (e.g., number of citations to their opinions or number of published opinions), take longer to get confirmed.
Lott has advocated government deregulation of various areas, and has also been published in the popular press taking positions in support of the U.S. Republican Party and President George W. Bush on topics such as the validity of the 2000 Presidential Election results in Florida.
On April 10, 2006, John Lott filed suit for defamation against Steven Levitt and HarperCollins Publishers over the book Freakonomics and against Levitt over a series of emails to John McCall. In the book Freakonomics, Levitt and coauthor Stephen J. Dubner claimed that the results of Lott's research in More Guns, Less Crime had not been replicated by other academics. In the emails to economist John McCall, who had pointed to a number of papers in different academic publications that had replicated Lott's work, Levitt wrote that the work by several authors supporting Lott in a special 2001 issue of the Journal of Law and Economics had not been peer reviewed, Lott had paid the University of Chicago Press to publish the papers, and that papers with results opposite of Lott's had been blocked from publication in that issue.
A federal judge found that Levitt's replication claim in Freakonomics was not defamation but found merit in Lott's complaint over the email claims.
Levitt settled the second defamation claim by admitting in a letter to John McCall that he himself was a peer reviewer in the 2001 issue of the Journal of Law and Economics, that Lott had not engaged in bribery (paying for extra costs of printing and postage for a conference issue is customary), and that he knew that "scholars with varying opinions" (including Levitt himself) had been invited to participate. The Chronicle of Higher Education characterized Levitt's letter as offering "a doozy of a concession."
The dismissal of the first half of Lott's suit was unanimously upheld by The United States Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit on February 11, 2009.
Charges that gun makers or the NRA have paid for Lott's research
In 1996 when Lott's research first received media attention, Charles Schumer wrote in the Wall Street Journal: "The Associated Press reports that Prof. Lott's fellowship at the University of Chicago is funded by the Olin Foundation, which is 'associated with the Olin Corporation,' one of the nation's largest gun manufacturers. Maybe that's a coincidence, too. But it's also a fact." Olin Foundation head William E. Simon strongly denied Schumer's claims in a reply letter. Olin Foundation was funded by the personal estate of the late John M. Olin independently of Olin Corp. Like all candidates, Lott was selected to receive his Olin Fellowship by the faculty of the university, not by Olin Foundation and certainly not by Olin Corp.
In a debate on Piers Morgan Tonight on July 23, 2012, Harvard Law School Professor Alan Dershowitz claimed: "This is junk science at its worst. Paid for and financed by the National Rifle Association." Lott countered: "The NRA hasn't paid for my research." Dershowitz continued: "Your conclusions are paid for and financed—The National Rifle Association—only funds research that will lead to these conclusions." Separately both Lott and the NRA have denied NRA funding of Lott's research. (In January 2000, criminologist Otis Dudley Duncan questioned Lott's statistics because the NRA was not citing them)
In the course of a dispute with Otis Dudley Duncan in 1999–2000, Lott claimed to have undertaken a national survey of 2,424 respondents in 1997, the results of which were the source for claims he had made beginning in 1997. However, in 2000 Lott was unable to produce the data, or any records showing that the survey had been undertaken. He said the 1997 hard drive crash that had affected several projects with co-authors had destroyed his survey data set, the original tally sheets had been abandoned with other personal property in his move from Chicago to Yale, and he could not recall the names of any of the students who he said had worked on it. Critics alleged that the survey had never taken place, but Lott defends the survey's existence and accuracy, quoting on his website colleagues who lost data in the hard drive crash.[self-published source?]
Use of econometrics as proof of causation
In 2001, Rutgers University sociology professor Ted Goertzel considered multiple regression to be not of much use in proving causal arguments in studies by Lott (and by Lott's critics Levitt, Ayres and Donohue).
The National Academy of Sciences panel that reported on several gun control issues in 2004 looked at Right-To-Carry laws in Chapter 6 and endorsed neither the Lott & Mustard (1997) level and trend models as definite proof nor the Ayres & Donohue (2003) hybrid model as definite refutation of Lott's thesis: the majority of the panel concluded that econometrics could not decide the issue, suggesting instead alternate research, such as a survey of felons to determine if RTC changed their behavior. The criminologist on the NAS panel, James Q. Wilson, wrote a dissent from the econometricians' conclusion. Wilson noted in the report that all the panel's estimates on murder rates supported Lott's conclusion on the effect of RTC on murder. The Committee responded that "[w]hile it is true that most of the reported estimates [of the policy on murder rates] are negative, several are positive and many are statistically insignificant." They further noted that the full committee, including Wilson, agreed that there was not convincing evidence that RTC policies had an impact on other kinds of violent crime.
In a 2011 article for ALER, Donohue claimed the NRC panel results published from the hybrid model "could not be replicated on its data set". Lott replicated the NRC's results using the NRC's copy of the Ayres & Donohue model and data set, pointing out that the model used for the ALER article was different and introduced a truncation bias.
Mary Rosh persona
In response to the dispute surrounding the missing survey, Lott created and used "Mary Rosh" as a sock puppet to defend his own works on Usenet and elsewhere. After investigative work by blogger Julian Sanchez, Lott admitted to use of the Mary Rosh persona. Sanchez also pointed out that Lott, posing as Rosh, not only praised his own academic writing, but also called himself "the best professor I ever had".
Many commentators and academics accused Lott of violating academic integrity, noting that he praised himself while posing as one of his former students, and that "Rosh" was used to post a favorable review of More Guns, Less Crime on Amazon.com. Lott has claimed that the "Rosh" review was written by his son and wife.[broken citation]
"I probably shouldn't have done it—I know I shouldn't have done it—but it's hard to think of any big advantage I got except to be able to comment fictitiously," Lott told the Washington Post in 2003.[broken citation]
- Uncertainty and Economic Evolution (ISBN 0-415-15166-X)
- Are Predatory Commitments Credible? (ISBN 0-226-49355-5)
- More Guns, Less Crime (ISBN 0-226-49364-4)
- The Bias Against Guns (ISBN 0-89526-114-6)
- Straight Shooting (ISBN 0-936783-47-8)
- Freedomnomics (ISBN 978-1-596-98506-3)
- Debacle: Obama's War on Jobs and Growth and What We Can Do Now to Regain Our Future (ISBN 978-1118186176)
- At the Brink: Will Obama Push Us Over the Edge? (ISBN 978-1621570516)
- Zeller, Tom (September 12, 2006). "Bloggers panned for puppet shows; Writers undeterred despite unmasking of online 'supporters'". International Herald Tribune. p. 17.
- Pierce, Greg (November 13, 2008). "Inside Politics". Washington Times. pp. A07.
- Lightman, David (March 28, 2011). "30 years after Reagan shot, outlook dim for gun control". McClatchy News Service.
- "Political Headlines". Fox Special Report With Brit Hume. Fox News. November 12, 2008.
- John R. Lott, Jr., At the Brink: Will Obama Push Us Over the Edge?, Regnery Publishing, 2013, ISBN 978-1621570516.
- "Peter Brimelow, Guns, Drugs And Insider Trading, Forbes Magazine, September 18, 2000"
- "Matt Bai, The Gun Crowd's Guru: John Lott has a high profile—and a target on his back, Newsweek, March 12, 2001[dead link]"
- "Mark Blaug and Howard R. Vane, Who's Who in Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, September 2003"
- Curriculum Vitae of John R. Lott, Jr., dated March 17, 2008.
- Social Science Research Network
- Ranking of 30,000 Top Authors http://hq.ssrn.com/rankings/Ranking_display.cfm?RequestTimeout=5000&TMY_gID=2&TRN_gID=7&runid=36064
- "Social Science Research Network"
- Fox News
- John R. Lott, Jr. and David B. Mustard, Crime, Deterrence and Right-To-Carry Concealed Handguns, 26 Journal of Legal Studies 1 (1997) working paper PDF; journal article PDF (requires subscription).
- Benson, Bruce L. (September 1999). "Review of More Guns, Less Crime". Public Choice 100 (3–4): 309. doi:10.1023/A:1018689310638.
- McGinnis, John O. (July 20, 1998). "Trigger Happiness". National Review 50 (13): 49.
- Shughart, William F.; Lott, John R. (April 1, 1999). "More Guns, Less Crime: Understanding Crime and Gun Control Laws: Review". Southern Economic Journal 65 (4): 978–981. doi:10.2307/1061296. JSTOR 1061296.
- Hemenway, David (December 31, 1998). "More Guns, Less Crime: Understanding crime and gun-control laws / Making A Killing: The business of guns in America". The New England Journal of Medicine 339 (27): 2029–30. doi:10.1056/NEJM199812313392719.
- "Plassmann and Whitley Stanford Law Review (2003)" Confirming More Guns, Less Crime, by Florenz Plassmann and John Whitley, 2003, p. 1361
- Ayres, Ian; John J. Donohue III (April 2003). "Shooting Down the 'More Guns, Less Crime' Hypothesis". Stanford Law Review 55 (4): 1193. doi:10.2139/ssrn.343781.
- Kleck, Gary (1997). Targeting Guns: Firearms and Their Control. New York, NY: Aldine de Gruyter.
- Black, Dan A.; Daniel S. Nagin (January 1998). "Do Right-to-Carry Laws Deter Violent Crime?". Journal of Legal Studies 27 (1): 214. doi:10.1086/468019.
- NAS, Firearms and Violence: A Critical Review (2004) Executive Summary, Major Conclusions, page 2. Chapter 6 Right-to-Carry Laws, pages 120–151, reviews research by Lott and others on this issue.
- NAS, Firearms and Violence: A Critical Review (2004) Appendix A Dissent by James Q. Wilson, page 269.
- Firearms and Violence: A Critical Review (2004) Appendix A Dissent by James Q. Wilson, page 270.
- Glenn, David (May 9, 2003). "'More Guns, Less Crime' Thesis Rests on a Flawed Statistical Design, Scholars Argue". The Chronicle of Higher Education 49 (35): A18. Retrieved 2007-05-27.
- Carlisle E. Moody and Thomas B. Marvell, "The Debate on Shall-Issue Laws", Econ Journal Watch Vol. 5, Iss. 3 (2008).
- John R. Lott, Jr., "What a balancing test will show for right-to-carry laws", University of Maryland Law Review, Vol. 71, Iss. 4 (2012)]
- "How Dramatically Did Women's Suffrage Change the Size and Scope of Government?" by John R. Lott Jr. and Larry Kenny, Journal of Political Economy, 1999
- Lott, Jr., John R. (1998-06-23). "Keep Guns out of Lawyers' Hands". Wall Street Journal. p. 1.
- Lott, Jr., John R. (1998-12-01). "Cities Target Gun Makers in Bogus Lawsuits". Los Angeles Times. p. 7.
- McDowall, David (Summer 2005). "John R. Lott, Jr.'s Defensive Gun Brandishing Estimates". Public Opinion Quarterly 69 (2): 246. doi:10.1093/poq/nfi015.
- Gary Kleck, and Marc Gertz, "Defensive Gun Use: Vengeful vigilante imagery versus reality: results from the National Self-Defense Survey," Journal of Criminal Justice, Vol. 26 (1998)
- Discussion of different surveys on defensive gun use Johnlott.org
- "The Reputational Penalties for Environmental Violations: Empirical Evidence" by Jonathan M. Karpoff, John R. Lott Jr., Eric Wehrly, Journal of Law and Economics, Forthcoming
- "Does a Helping Hand Put Others At Risk?: Affirmative Action, Police Departments, and Crime" by John R. Lott, Jr. Economic Inquiry, April 2000
- John R. Lott Jr. and John E. Whitley, "Abortion and Crime: Unwanted Children and Out-of-Wedlock Births", (2001) SSRN Yale Law & Economics Research Paper No. 254 working paper and Economic Inquiry, Vol. 45, No. 2, pp. 304–324, April 2007 published article.
- "A Simple Explanation for Why Campaign Expenditures are Increasing: The Government is Getting Bigger" by John R. Lott Jr., Journal of Law and Economics., October 2000
- "The Judicial Confirmation Process: The Difficulty in Being Smart" by John R. Lott, Jr., Journal of Empirical Law and Economics, 2005: 407–447
- "Nonvoted ballots and discrimination in Florida" by John R. Lott, Jr., Journal of Legal Studies, January 2003
- PDF of Lott's complaint v. Levitt
- Higgins, Michael (2006-04-11). "Best-seller leads scholar to file lawsuit; Defamation allegation targets U. of C. author". Chicago Tribune. p. 3.
- "Judge Castillo issues decision on Lott v. Levitt" on John Lott's website
- Glenn, David (2007-08-10). "Dueling Economists Reach Settlement in Defamation Lawsuit". Chronicle of Higher Education 53 (49): 10.
- "Unusual Agreement Means Settlement May Be Near in 'Lott v. Levitt,' July 27, 2007"
- "Unusual Agreement Means Settlement May Be Near in 'Lott v. Levitt'," Chronicle of Higher Education, July 27, 2007
- "7th Circuit Affirmation of District Court Dismissal of Defamation Lawsuit"
- Charles Schumer, "Gun-Control Thesis Is a Shot in the Dark", Wall Street Journal, September 4, 1996.
- William E. Simon, "An Insult to Our Foundation," Wall Street Journal, September 9, 1996.
- Steve Chapman, "Taking Aim a Gun Study and a Conspiracy Theory", Chicago Tribune, September 4, 1996
- Piers Morgan Tonight, "Mayor Bloomberg Speaks on Guns; The Right to Bear Arms; Acts of Heroism", CNN Transcripts, 23 Jul 2012.
- Piers Morgan And Alan Dershowitz Get In Heated Argument With Anti-Gun Control Advocate, CNN, July 23rd, 2012
- Christopher Goins, "Gun Control Won't Make Mass Shootings Less Likely to Happen, Academic Says," CNSNews.com, September 4, 2012.
- Otis Dudley Duncan, "Gun Use Surveys: In Numbers We Trust?", The Criminologist, Vol. 25, No. 1, Jan/Feb 2000, p. 1, 3–7.
- "John R. Lott, Jr.'s Reply to Otis Dudley Duncan's Recent Article in The Criminologist", The Criminologist, Vol. 25, No. 5, Sep/Oct 2000, page 1, 6.
- John R. Lott. Jr.'s Reply to Otis Dudley Duncan's Recent Article in The Criminologist, The Criminologist, Vol. 25, No. 5, Sept/Oct 2000, p. 1, 6.
- Julian Sanchez noted that the 1997 harddrive crash is widely accepted as a fact; the dispute is over the lack of solid evidence that Lott lost a survey data set in that crash.
- Sanchez, Julian. "The Mystery of Mary Rosh". Retrieved 2007-06-15.
- "Evidence of Survey"., "2002 Survey".
- "The Conspiracy Meme", Skeptical Inquirer, Vol. 35 No. 1, January/February 2011, Page 37
- Ted Goertzel, "Myths of Murder and Multiple Regression", The Skeptical Inquirer, Volume 26, No 1, January/February 2002, pp. 19–23. Expanded as: Ted Goertzel, "Econometric Modeling as Junk Science"
- NAS panel report on right-to-carry laws
- James Q. WIlson, "Dissent," Firearms and Violence: A Critical Review, National Academies Press 2004, pp. 269–271.
- "Committee Response to Wilson's Dissent"Firearms and Violence: A Critical Review, National Academies Press 2004, pp. 272.
- Abhay Aneja, John J. Donohue III, and Alexandria Zhang, "The Impact of Right-to-Carry Laws and the NRC Report: Lessons for the Empirical Evaluation of Law and Policy", Am Law Econ Rev (Fall 2011) 13(2): 565–631.
- Carlisle E. Moody, John R. Lott Jr., Thomas B. Marvell and Paul R. Zimmerman, "Trust But Verify: Lessons for the Empirical Evaluation of Law and Policy", SSRN Working Paper Series, 25 Jan 2012.
- Chris Mooney in Mother Jones: Double Barreled Double Standards. October 13, 2003
- "Scholar Invents Fan To Answer His Critics" Richard Morin, Washington Post, February 1, 2003; Page C01
|Wikimedia Commons has media related to: John Lott|
- John Lott's blog
- John Lott's data, available for downloading
- Blog For John Lott's 2007 Book, Freedomnomics
- Lott's Fox News columns
Regarding Lott's research
- John Lott's Research Papers at the Social Science Research Network
- Opinion pieces by Lott in the general press
- National Academy of Science: NAS panel report on right-to-carry laws