Kryder's law projection
A 2005 Scientific American article, titled "Kryder's Law", describes the work of Mark Kryder and the fact that magnetic disk areal storage density was then increasing very quickly. The pace was then much faster than the two-year doubling time of semiconductor chip density posited by Moore's law.
In 2005, commodity drive density of 110 Gbit/in2 (170 Mbit/mm2) had been reached, up from 100 Mbit/in2 circa 1990. This does not extrapolate all the way back to the initial 2 kilobit/in2 drives introduced in 1956, as growth rates increased with, among other things, the advent of industry consortia for technology investment such as the MTC (Magnetics Technology Center later the Data Storage Systems Center).
A PhysOrg.com article by Mark Kryder projected that if hard drives were to continue to progress at their then-current pace of about 40% per year, then in 2020 a two-platter, 2.5-inch disk drive would store more than 40 terabytes (TB) and cost about $40. The article also considers 13 up-and-coming non-volatile memory technologies to see whether one of them might outperform hard drives on a cost-per-TB basis in 2020.
The Kryder rate
The validity of the Kryder's law projection of 2009 was questioned halfway into the forecast period, and some called the actual rate of areal density progress the "Kryder rate." As of 2014, the observed Kryder rate had fallen well short of the 2009 forecast of 40% per year. A single 2.5-inch platter stored around 0.3 terabytes in 2009 and this reached 0.6 terabytes in 2014. The Kryder rate over the five years ending in 2014 was around 15% per year. To reach 20 terabytes by 2020, starting in 2014, would require an implausibly high Kryder rate of better than 80% per year.
Awards and honors
Mark H. Kryder is an elected member of the National Academy of Engineering, a Fellow of the American Physical Society and a Fellow of the Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers (IEEE). He was Distinguished Lecturer for the IEEE Magnetics Society, and has been awarded the IEEE Magnetics Society Achievement Award and IEEE Reynold B. Johnson Information Storage Systems Award. Kryder received the Pingat Bakti Masyarakat from Singapore in their 2007 National Day Awards.
- "2007 George E. Pake Prize Recipient". American Physical Society. 2007.
- Walter, Chip (August 2005). "Kryder's Law". Scientific American.
- Sadik C. Esener; Mark H. Kryder; et al (June 1999). "The Future of Data Storage Technologies" (PDF). International Technology Research Institute. p. 85. Retrieved 16 October 2011.
- Kryder, Mark H.; Chang Soo Kim (October 2009). "After Hard Drives - What Comes Next?" (PDF). IEEE Transactions on Magnetics 45 (10). doi:10.1109/TMAG.2009.2024163. Lay summary – PhysOrg.com (October 2009).
- Mellor, Chris (2014-11-10). "Kryder's law craps out: Race to UBER-CHEAP STORAGE is OVER". theregister.co.uk (UK: The Register). Retrieved 2014-11-12. "Currently 2.5-inch drives are at 500GB/platter with some at 600GB or even 667GB/platter – a long way from 20TB/platter. To reach 20TB by 2020, the 500GB/platter drives will have to increase areal density 44 times in six years. It isn't going to happen. ... Rosenthal writes: "The technical difficulties of migrating from PMR to HAMR, meant that already in 2010 the Kryder rate had slowed significantly and was not expected to return to its trend in the near future. The floods reinforced this.""
- Nyenhuis, John; Richard Dee (eds) (August 2000). "Kryder Receives IEEE Reynold B. Johnson Information Storage Award". IEEE Magnetics Society Newsletter.
- "2007 Public Service Medal". Pingat Bakti Masyarakat (PMB). Archived from the original on 2008-02-07.
- "Kryder's Law". MattsComputerTrends.com. Archived from the original on 2006-04-10.
- "Kryder's Law @ Scientific American". Seagate. Archived from the original on 2007-09-26.
- Kozierok, Charles M. (2001-04-17). "A Brief History of the Hard Disk Drive". Archived from the original on 2000-08-15.
- "Mark Kryder". Carnegie Mellon University. Archived from the original on 2005-08-10.