Unintended consequences

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
  (Redirected from Law of unintended consequences)
Jump to: navigation, search
This article is about the ethical concept. For the novel, see Unintended Consequences (novel).
An erosion gully in Australia caused by rabbits. The release of rabbits in Australia for hunting purposes has had serious unintended ecological consequences.

In the social sciences, unintended consequences (sometimes unanticipated consequences or unforeseen consequences) are outcomes that are not the ones intended by a purposeful action. The term was popularised in the 20th century by American sociologist Robert K. Merton.[1]

Unintended consequences can be roughly grouped into three types:

  • A positive, unexpected benefit (usually referred to as luck, serendipity or a windfall).
  • A negative, unexpected detriment occurring in addition to the desired effect of the policy (e.g., while irrigation schemes provide people with water for agriculture, they can increase waterborne diseases that have devastating health effects, such as schistosomiasis).
  • A perverse effect contrary to what was originally intended (when an intended solution makes a problem worse). This has been dubbed the 'cobra effect', after an anecdote about how a bounty for killing cobras in British India caused people to breed cobras.

History[edit]

The idea of unintended consequences dates back at least to John Locke who discussed the unintended consequences of interest rate regulation in his letter to Sir John Somers, Member of Parliament.[2] The idea was also discussed byAdam Smith, the Scottish Enlightenment, and consequentialism (judging by results).[3] However, it was the sociologist Robert K. Merton who popularized this concept in the twentieth century.[1][4][5][6]

In his 1936 paper, "The Unanticipated Consequences of Purposive Social Action", Merton tried to apply a systematic analysis to the problem of unintended consequences of deliberate acts intended to cause social change. He emphasized that his term "purposive action... [is exclusively] concerned with 'conduct' as distinct from 'behavior.' That is, with action that involves motives and consequently a choice between various alternatives".[6] Merton also stated that "no blanket statement categorically affirming or denying the practical feasibility of all social planning is warranted."[7]

More recently, the law of unintended consequences has come to be used as an adage or idiomatic warning that an intervention in a complex system tends to create unanticipated and often undesirable outcomes.[8][9][10][11] Akin to Murphy's law, it is commonly used as a wry or humorous warning against the hubristic belief that humans can fully control the world around them.

Causes[edit]

Possible causes of unintended consequences include the world's inherent complexity (parts of a system responding to changes in the environment), perverse incentives, human stupidity, self-deception, failure to account for human nature or other cognitive or emotional biases. As a sub-component of complexity (in the scientific sense), the chaotic nature of the universe—and especially its quality of having small, apparently insignificant changes with far-reaching effects (e.g., the butterfly effect)—applies.

Robert K. Merton listed five possible causes of unanticipated consequences in 1936:[12]

  1. Ignorance, making it impossible to anticipate everything, thereby leading to incomplete analysis
  2. Errors in analysis of the problem or following habits that worked in the past but may not apply to the current situation
  3. Immediate interests overriding long-term interests
  4. Basic values which may require or prohibit certain actions even if the long-term result might be unfavorable (these long-term consequences may eventually cause changes in basic values)
  5. Self-defeating prophecy, or, the fear of some consequence which drives people to find solutions before the problem occurs, thus the non-occurrence of the problem is not anticipated

Examples[edit]

Unexpected benefits[edit]

Unexpected drawbacks[edit]

  • The implementation of a profanity filter by AOL in 1996 had the unintended consequence of blocking residents of Scunthorpe, North Lincolnshire, England from creating accounts due to a false positive.[22] The accidental censorship of innocent language, known as the Scunthorpe problem, has been repeated and widely documented.[23][24][25]
  • In 1990, the Australian state of Victoria made safety helmets mandatory for all bicycle riders. While there was a reduction in the number of head injuries, there was also an unintended reduction in the number of juvenile cyclists—fewer cyclists obviously leads to fewer injuries, assuming all else being equal. The risk of death and serious injury per cyclist seems to have increased, possibly due to risk compensation.[26] Research by Vulcan, et al. found that the reduction in juvenile cyclists was because the youths considered wearing a bicycle helmet unfashionable.[27] A health benefit model developed at Macquarie University in Sydney suggests that, while helmet use reduces "the risk of head or brain injury by approximately two-thirds or more", the decrease in exercise caused by reduced cycling as a result of helmets laws is counterproductive in terms of net health.[28]
  • Prohibition in the 1920s United States, originally enacted to suppress the alcohol trade, drove many small-time alcohol suppliers out of business and consolidated the hold of large-scale organized crime over the illegal alcohol industry. Since alcohol was still popular, criminal organizations producing alcohol were well-funded and hence also increased their other activities. Similarly, the War on Drugs, intended to suppress the illegal drug trade, instead increased the power and profitability of drug cartels who became the primary source of the products.[29][30][31][32]
  • Most modern technologies have negative consequences that are both unavoidable and unpredictable. For example, almost all environmental problems, from chemical pollution to global warming, are the unexpected consequences of the application of modern technologies. Traffic congestion, deaths and injuries from car accidents, air pollution, and even global warming are unintended consequences of the invention and large scale adoption of the automobile. Hospital infections are the unexpected side-effect of antibiotic resistance, and even human overpopulation is the side-effect of various technological (i.e., agricultural and industrial) revolutions.[33]
  • In CIA jargon, "blowback" describes the unintended, undesirable consequences of covert operations, such as the funding of the Afghan Mujahideen and the destabilization of Afghanistan contributing to the rise of the Taliban and Al-Qaeda.[34][35][36]
  • The introduction of exotic animals and plants for food, for decorative purposes, or to control unwanted species often leads to more harm than good done by the introduced species.
    • The introduction of rabbits in Australia and New Zealand for food was followed by an explosive growth in the rabbit population; rabbits have become a major feral pest in these countries.[37][38]
    • Cane toads, introduced into Australia to control canefield pests, were unsuccessful and have become a major pest in their own right.
    • Kudzu, introduced to the US as an ornamental plant in 1876[39] and later used to prevent erosion in earthworks, has become a major problem in the Southeastern United States. Kudzu has displaced native plants, and has effectively taken over significant portions of land.[40][41]

Perverse results[edit]

  • In 2003, Barbra Streisand unsuccessfully sued Kenneth Adelman and Pictopia.com for posting a photograph of her home online.[42] Before the lawsuit had been filed, only 6 people had downloaded the file, two of them Streisand's attorneys.[43] The lawsuit drew attention to the image, resulting in 420,000 people visiting the site.[44] The Streisand effect was named after this incident, describing when an attempt to censor or remove a certain piece of information instead draws attention to the material being suppressed, resulting in the material instead becoming widely known, reported on, and distributed.[45]
  • Risk compensation, or the Peltzman effect, occurs after implementation of safety measures intended to reduce injury or death (e.g. bike helmets, seatbelts, etc.). People may feel safer than they really are and take additional risks which they would not have taken without the safety measures in place. This may result in no change of, or even an increased morbidity or mortality, rather than a decrease as intended.
  • Theobald Mathew's temperance campaign in 19th-century Ireland (in which thousands of people vowed never to drink alcohol again) led to the consumption of diethyl ether, an intoxicant much more dangerous due to its high flammability, by those seeking to become intoxicated without breaking the letter of their pledge.[46]
  • It was thought that adding south-facing conservatories to British houses would reduce energy consumption by providing extra insulation and warmth from the sun. However, people tended to use the conservatories as living areas, installing heating and ultimately increasing overall energy consumption.[47]
  • A reward for ghost nets found along the Normandy coast, offered by the French government between 1980 and 1981, resulted in people vandalizing nets to collect the reward.[48]

Unintended consequences of environmental intervention[edit]

Because of the complexity of ecosystems, deliberate changes to an ecosystem or other environmental interventions can have unintended consequences. Sometimes, these effects cause permanent irreversible changes. Examples include:

  • The draining of American wetlands since colonial times, resulting in flash-flooding and seasonal droughts.
  • The installation of smokestacks to decrease pollution in local areas, resulting in spread of pollution at a higher altitude, and acid rain on an international scale.[49][50]
  • After about 1900, public demand led the federal government to fight forest fires in the American West, and set aside land as national forests and parks to protect them from fires. This policy led to fewer fires, but led to growth conditions that made what fires did occur much larger and more damaging. Modern research suggests that this policy was misguided, and that a certain level of wildfires is a natural and important part of forest ecology.[51]

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ a b Robert K. Merton, Versatile Sociologist and Father of the Focus Group, Dies at 92, Michael T. Kaufman, The New York Times
  2. ^ Some Considerations of the Consequences of the Lowering of Interest and the Raising the Value of Money, available at https://www.marxists.org/reference/subject/economics/locke/part1.htm
  3. ^ Adam Smith The Theory of Moral Sentiments p. 93.
  4. ^ Renowned Columbia Sociologist and National Medal of Science Winner Robert K. Merton Dies at 92 Columbia News
  5. ^ Robert K. Merton Remembered Footnotes, American Sociological Association
  6. ^ a b Merton, Robert K. "The Unanticipated Consequences of Purposive Social Action". American Sociological Review 1 (6): 895. doi:10.2307/2084615. Retrieved 2008-05-30. 
  7. ^ Merton, Robert K. "The Unanticipated Consequences of Purposive Social Action". American Sociological Review 1 (6): 904. doi:10.2307/2084615. Retrieved 2008-05-30. 
  8. ^ Norton, Rob (2008). "Unintended Consequences". In David R. Henderson. Concise Encyclopedia of Economics (2nd ed.). Indianapolis: Library of Economics and Liberty. ISBN 978-0865976658. OCLC 237794267. 
  9. ^ "HeinOnline". HeinOnline. Retrieved 2010-05-07. 
  10. ^ "28 Florida State University Law Review 2000-2001 Mandatory Minimum Sentences: Exemplifying the Law of Unintended Consequences Comment". Heinonline.org. 1993-06-18. Retrieved 2012-11-21. 
  11. ^ "HeinOnline". HeinOnline. Retrieved 2010-05-07. 
  12. ^ Merton, Robert K (1996). "On Social Structure and Science". The University of Chicago Press. Retrieved 2012-11-21. 
  13. ^ "From Iron Curtain to Green Belt: How new life came to the death strip". London: Independent.co.uk. 2009-05-17. Retrieved 2010-05-07. 
  14. ^ Kate Connolly (2009-07-04). "From Iron Curtain to Green Belt". London: Guardian. Retrieved 2010-05-07. 
  15. ^ "European Green Belt". European Green Belt. Retrieved 2010-05-07. 
  16. ^ "Maryland Artificial Reef Initiative Celebrates 1 Year Anniversary". Dnr.maryland.gov. 2008-02-07. Retrieved 2010-05-07. 
  17. ^ 4:00 p.m. ET (2007-05-25). "Sinking ships will boost tourism, group says – News – msnbc.com". MSNBC. Retrieved 2010-05-07. 
  18. ^ "Life after death on the ocean floor – The National Newspaper". Thenational.ae. 2009-09-21. Retrieved 2010-05-07. 
  19. ^ "Sea Life Flourishing On Vandenberg Wreck Off Keys". cbs4.com. 2009-10-15. Retrieved 2010-05-07. 
  20. ^ "CDNN :: Diver Wants to Sink Old Navy Ships off California Coast". Cdnn.info. 2006-12-27. Retrieved 2010-05-07. 
  21. ^ "BBC 15 February 2001, Aspirin heart warning". BBC News. 2001-02-15. Retrieved 2010-05-07. 
  22. ^ Clive Feather (25 April 1996). Peter G. Neumann, ed. "AOL censors British town's name!". ACM Committee on Computers and Public Policy. 
  23. ^ Cockburn, Craig (9 March 2010). "BBC fail – my correct name is not permitted". blog.siliconglen.com. Retrieved 24 February 2011. 
  24. ^ Moore, Matthew (2 September 2008). "The Clbuttic Mistake: When obscenity filters go wrong". The Daily Telegraph (London). Retrieved 4 April 2010. 
  25. ^ "F-Word Town's Name Gets Censored By Internet Filter". Retrieved 27 July 2011. 
  26. ^ "Evaluating Head Injuries and Helmet Laws in Australia and New Zealand". 
  27. ^ Cameron, M; Cameron, M., Vulcan, A., Finch, C, and Newstead, S (June 1994). "Mandatory bicycle helmet use following a decade of helmet promotion in Victoria, Australia—an evaluation". Accident Analysis and Prevention 26 (3): 325–327. doi:10.1016/0001-4575(94)90006-X. PMID 8011045. 
  28. ^ "Evaluating the Health Benefit of Mandatory Bicycle Helmet Laws, Piet De Jong, Macquarie University – Actuarial Studies, 26 October 2009". Papers.ssrn.com. SSRN 1368064. 
  29. ^ Juan Forero, "Colombia's Coca Survives U.S. plan to uproot it", The New York Times, August 19, 2006
  30. ^ Don Podesta and Douglas Farah, "Drug Policy in Andes Called Failure," Washington Post, March 27, 1993
  31. ^ Dominic Streatfeild (June 2000). "Source Material for Cocaine: An Unauthorized Biography: Interview between Milton Friedman and Dominic Streatfeild". Dominicstratfeild. Retrieved 2012-11-21. 
  32. ^ "An open letter". Prohibition Costs. Retrieved 2008-02-20. 
  33. ^ *Huesemann, Michael H., and Joyce A. Huesemann (2011).Technofix: Why Technology Won’t Save Us or the Environment, Chapter 1, “The Inherent Unavoidability and Unpredictability of Unintended Consequences”, and Chapter 2, "Some Unintended Consequences of Modern Technology," New Society Publishers, Gabriola Island, British Columbia, Canada, ISBN 0865717044, 464 pp.
  34. ^ Bin Laden comes home to roost at the Wayback Machine (archived December 2, 1998)
  35. ^ "Blowback - 96.05". Theatlantic.com. Retrieved 2012-11-21. 
  36. ^ Peter Beaumont, foreign affairs editor. "Why 'blowback' is the hidden danger of war | World news". The Observer. Retrieved 2012-11-21. 
  37. ^ "The State Barrier Fence of Western Australia". The State Barrier Fence Project. Retrieved 2009-10-09. 
  38. ^ "Rabbits: Introduction into New Zealand". Christchurch City Libraries. Retrieved 2009-10-09. 
  39. ^ Smithsonian MagazineKudzu: Love It or Run
  40. ^ Molly McElroy (2005). "Fast-growing kudzu making inroads in Illinois, authorities warn". News Bureau, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Retrieved April 28, 2008. 
  41. ^ Richard J. Blaustein (2001). "Kudzu's invasion into Southern United States life and culture" (PDF). United States Department of Agriculture. Retrieved August 20, 2007. 
  42. ^ The perils of the Streisand Effect BBC News magazine 31 July 2014
  43. ^ Tentative ruling, page 6, stating, "Image 3850 was download six times, twice to the Internet address of counsel for plaintiff". In addition, two prints of the picture were ordered — one by Streisand's counsel and one by Streisand's neighbor. http://www.californiacoastline.org/streisand/slapp-ruling-tentative.pdf
  44. ^ Rogers, Paul (2003-06-24). "Photo of Streisand home becomes an Internet hit". San Jose Mercury News, mirrored at californiacoastline.org. Retrieved 2007-06-15. 
  45. ^ Canton, David. "Today's Business Law: Attempt to suppress can backfire", London Free Press, November 5, 2005. Retrieved July 21, 2007. The "Streisand effect" is what happens when someone tries to suppress something and the opposite occurs. The act of suppressing it raises the profile, making it much more well known than it ever would have been".
  46. ^ "Etheromaniac". World Wide Words. 2006-09-09. Retrieved 2012-11-21. 
  47. ^ "Our innate ability to think of new ways to use energy" Professor Tadj Oreszczyn. Summer 2009 edition of ‘palette’, UCL’s journal of sustainable cities.
  48. ^ Andres, Von Brandt (1984) Fish catching methods of the world ISBN 978-0-685-63409-7.
  49. ^ Likens, G. E., R. F. Wright, J. N. Galloway and T. J. Butler. 1979. Acid rain. Sci. Amer. 241(4):43–51.
  50. ^ Likens, G. E. 1984. Acid rain: the smokestack is the “smoking gun.” Garden 8(4):12-18.
  51. ^ Joyce, Christopher. "How The Smokey Bear Effect Led To Raging Wildfires". npr.org. Retrieved 27 August 2012. 

References[edit]