List of countries by future Human Development Index projections of the United Nations

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The list of countries, ranked by their anticipated Human Development Index (HDI) in 2010–2030, was published in 2010 by the Human Development Report Office of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), as part of its Human Development Research Paper Series. The Human Development Research Paper (HDRP) Series is a medium for sharing recent research commissioned to inform the global Human Development Report, which is published annually, and further research in the field of human development. The HDRP Series is a quick disseminating, informal publication whose titles could subsequently be revised for publication as articles in professional journals or chapters in books. The authors include leading academics and practitioners from around the world, as well as UNDP researchers. The findings, interpretations and conclusions are strictly those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of UNDP or United Nations Member States. Moreover, the data may not be consistent with that presented in Human Development Reports.

For this Human Development Report Paper, the authors projected the HDI for every country which had a complete data series for the upcoming twenty years, whereas the HDI projection used projections of the components conducted by agencies that provide the UNDP with data for the HDI. The HDI list contains 81 countries, most of which are expected to have a "Very High" HDI by 2025.

The Paper cited for this article, however, is not supported by the UNDP Human Development Report Office. While it was originally made available online for review purposes, it was subsequently rejected.

Background[edit]

In October 2009, the United Nations Development Programme published (in its 2009 Human Development Report[1]) its last country list by Human Development Index (HDI), for 2007, classifying the countries into four categories, the first one of which is the group of countries having a "Very High" HDI. Half a year later, in April 2010, the Human Development Report Office provided[2] the 2010–2030 HDI projections (quoted in September 2010, by the United Nations Development Programme, in the Human Development Research paper 2010/40[3]). These projections were reached by re-calculating the HDI, using (for components of the HDI) projections of the components conducted by agencies that provide the UNDP with data for the HDI.

The HDI was projected for all countries for which there was a complete data series for the 2010–2030 period. For example, the HDI was projected for every "non-tiny" country (i.e. for every country whose population is more than 800,000), that had a "Very High" HDI (i.e. an HDI of 900 or higher), in the 2009 Human Development Report. The HDI was not projected for countries for which there was no complete data series for the 2010–2030 period; Hence, the projection ignores countries which are not UN members (Hong Kong being an exception), and also ignores all "tiny" countries (among which seven had a "Very High" HDI in the 2009 Human Development Report: Andorra, Barbados, Brunei, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg and Malta). All "non-tiny" UN members for which no projection was made, didn't have a "Very High" HDI in the 2009 Human Development Report, although ten of them had (in the 2009 Human Development Report) a "High" HDI (i.e. 800 or higher): Albania, Belarus, Bosnia Herzegovina, Lebanon, Macedonia, Mauritius, Oman, Panama, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay.

According to these projections, Japan will lead among countries in the data set, with an HDI of 998 in 2030.

Probabilistic reservations[edit]

The UNDP indicates:[4]

The projections suggest a possible future for the progression of HDIs, but are not designed to be predictive, as changes in condition and [in] policies will impact a particular country's HDI. Further, unanticipated "shocks", such as wars, economic sanctions, epidemics, and environmental calamities, may negatively impact the HDI, while other shocks, such as cures for prevalent diseases such as malaria and HIV/AIDS, end of conflict, sudden dramatic investments in and take-up of education, can positively impact a country's HDI. Thus, the projections should be interpreted as what might occur, based on a past global experience with HDI growth, not a normative suggestion as to what will occur.

Also these projections are based on the old methodology for calculating the HDI value of a country. The 2010 Human Development Report, which was published in November 2010 (after this research papers was published), introduced a new methodology for calculating the HDI. Therefore these projections are inaccurate to compare to current HDI values.

2010–2030 UN projections of Very High HDIs[edit]

2010 forecast 2015 forecast 2020 forecast 2025 forecast 2030 forecast (Rounded HDI values, with exact ranking)
Rank Country HDI
1–2  Australia 975
1–2  Norway 975
3  Canada 969
4  Ireland 968
5  Netherlands 964
6  France 961
7   Switzerland 960
8  Japan 959
9  USA 959
10–11  Finland 956
10–11  Italy 956
12–13  Austria 953
12–13  Spain 953
14  Denmark 951
15  Sweden 949
16  Hong Kong 947
17–20  Belgium 946
17–20  NZ 946
17–20  S. Korea 946
17–20  UK 946
21  Greece 944
22–23  Germany 943
22–23  Singapore 998
24  Israel 940
25  Slovenia 933
26  Qatar 913
27  Kuwait 911
28–29  Cyprus 905
28–29  Portugal 905
Rank Country HDI
1  Australia 984
2  Norway 979
3  Canada 977
4  Ireland 974
5–7  France 971
5–7  Japan 971
5–7  Netherlands 971
8   Switzerland 967
9–10  Finland 963
9–10  Italy 963
11–13  Austria 962
11–13  Spain 962
11–13  USA 962
14–15  Denmark 959
14–15  S. Korea 959
16–17  Greece 955
16–17  NZ 955
18  Singapore 954
19–21  Germany 951
19–21  Israel 951
19–21  UK 951
22  Slovenia 950
23  Hong Kong 949
24  Belgium 944
25  Sweden 941
26  Qatar 920
27  Cyprus 917
28  Portugal 912
29–30  Kuwait 911
29–30  Croatia 911
31–32  Slovakia 907
31–32  UAE 907
33  Bahrain 905
34  Hungary 904
35–37  Poland 902
35–37  Chile 902
35–37  Cuba 902
Rank Country HDI
1  Australia 988
2  Canada 983
3  Norway 982
4–5  France 980
4–5  Japan 980
6  Ireland 978
7  Netherlands 975
8–9  S. Korea 972
8–9   Switzerland 972
10–11  Finland 971
10–11  Spain 971
12  Italy 970
13–14  Austria 969
13–14  Denmark 969
15  NZ 968
16  USA 966
17  Greece 964
18  Slovenia 963
19  Israel 961
20  Germany 958
21–22  Singapore 957
21–22  UK 957
23  Hong Kong 951
24  Belgium 939
25  Sweden 934
26  Cyprus 931
27–29  Croatia 927
27–29  Qatar 927
27–29  Slovakia 927
30–31  Estonia 920
30–31  UAE 920
32–33  Chile 919
32–33  Portugal 919
34  Hungary 918
35  Poland 916
36  Cuba 914
37  Kuwait 912
38  Bahrain 909
39  Lithuania 905
40  Latvia 903
Rank Country HDI
1  Australia 991
2  Japan 990
3  France 988
4–5  Canada 986
4–5  Norway 986
6  Ireland 981
7  Spain 980
8  NZ 979
9–10  Netherlands 978
9–10  S. Korea 978
11–12  Italy 976
11–12   Switzerland 976
13  Finland 975
14–15  Denmark 974
14–15  Slovenia 974
16–18  Austria 973
16–18  Greece 973
16–18  Israel 973
19  USA 969
20–21  Germany 964
20–21  UK 964
22  Singapore 960
23  Hong Kong 953
24  Cyprus 945
25  Croatia 943
26  Slovakia 942
27  Estonia 937
28  Chile 935
29  Qatar 934
30  Hungary 932
31  Belgium 930
32  Poland 929
33–34  Portugal 927
33–34  UAE 927
35  Cuba 926
36–38  Latvia 920
36–38  Lithuania 920
36–38  Sweden 920
39  Bahrain 913
40  Mexico 912
41  Kuwait 911
42  Costa Rica 905
43  Bulgaria 900
Rank Country HDI
1  Japan 998
2  Australia 995
3  France 993
4  Spain 991
5  Canada 989
6  Norway 989
7  NZ 988
8  Ireland 984
9  Israel 984
10  Italy 984
11  S. Korea 981
12  Netherlands 980
13  Greece 980
14   Switzerland 979
15  Slovenia 977
16  Denmark 977
17  Austria 976
18  Finland 976
19  USA 973
20  UK 972
21  Germany 966
22  Singapore 963
23  Cyprus 959
24  Croatia 956
25  Slovakia 956
26  Hong Kong 956
27  Estonia 953
28  Chile 948
29  Hungary 946
30  Poland 943
31  Qatar 941
32  Cuba 939
33  Latvia 936
34  UAE 934
35  Lithuania 934
36  Portugal 933
37  Mexico 923
38  Bahrain 921
39  Costa Rica 920
40  Belgium 920
41  Bulgaria 918
42  Kuwait 909
43  Argentina 908
44  Libya 907
45  Sweden 906

Countries not included in the 2010–2030 UN projection[edit]

No projection was calculated for countries for which there was no complete data series for the 2010–2030 period (e.g. all of the countries whose population is less than 800,000). Among them:

  • Seven countries, which had a "Very High" HDI in the 2009 Human Development Report (for 2007), but were not included in the 2010–2030 projection survey (due to their being "tiny" countries, whose population is less than 800,000):
 Andorra,  Barbados,  Brunei,  Iceland,  Liechtenstein,  Luxembourg,  Malta.
  • Ten non-micro nations, not included in the 2010–2030 projection survey, although they had a "High" HDI (yet not a "Very High" HDI) in the 2009 Human Development Report (for 2007):
 Albania,  Belarus,  Bosnia and Herzegovina,  Lebanon,  Macedonia,  Mauritius,  Oman,  Panama,  Trinidad and Tobago,  Uruguay.

References[edit]

  1. ^ "2009 Human Development Report". New York: United Nations Development Programme. 2009. Retrieved 2010-10-25. 
  2. ^ Daponte, Beth Osborne; Hu, Difei (April 2010), Technical Note on Re-Calculating the HDI, Using Projections of Components of the HDI, United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report Office. 
  3. ^ Asher, Jana; Daponte, Beth Osborne (September 2010). "A hypothetical Cohort Model of Human Development". Human Development Research Paper 2010/40. United Nations Development Programme. pp. 40–42. Retrieved 2010-10-25. 
  4. ^ Asher, Jana; Daponte, Beth Osborne (September 2010). "A hypothetical Cohort Model of Human Development". Human Development Research Paper 2010/40. United Nations Development Programme. p. 2. Retrieved 2010-10-25. 

External links[edit]

  • Asher, Jana; Daponte, Beth Osborne (September 2010). "A hypothetical Cohort Model of Human Development". Human Development Research Paper 2010/40. United Nations Development Programme. pp. 29, 40–42. Retrieved 2010-10-25.  - This link does not exist