List of recessions in the United Kingdom

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search

This is a list of (recent) recessions (and depressions) that have affected the economy of the United Kingdom. In the United Kingdom and all other EU member states, a recession is generally defined as two successive quarters of negative economic growth, as measured by the seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter figures for real GDP.[1][2]

Name Dates Duration Real GDP reduction Causes Other data
Post-Napoleonic depression 1812–21 ~9 years[3] Post-war readjustment
1857-8 recession 1857-8 ~1 year[4][5] ~1%[6] Panic of 1857 (originating in America) as the first global economic crisis, confidence eroded by Palmerston government relaxing the provisions of the Peel Banking Act of 1844 Comparatively brief contraction of approximately 3.5%[4] nominal GDP?
1867-9 recession 1867–9 ~2 years[4][5] ~1%[7] Impact on exports resulting from American recession post-civil war 1.9%[4] fall in GDP
Long Depression 1873-96 ~20 years Deflation but no reduction in real GDP Panic of 1873 World-wide, but Britain hit worst and longest. Previously known as the "Great Depression". Agricultural deflation hit farmers and their workers, although industrial output continued to grow.
1919-21 depression 1919-21 ~3 years 10.9% 1919
6.0% 1920
8.1% 1921[8]
~9.5%[9]
The end of World War I Deflation ~10% in 1921, and ~14% in 1922.[10]
Great Depression 1930-1 ~2 years 0.7% 1930
5.1% 1931[8]
US Depression. Reducing demand for UK exports, also high interest rate defending the gold standard.[11] UK came off gold standard Sept 1931. 3-5% deflation pa. UK much less affected than US. Took 16 quarters for GDP to recover to that at start of recession[12] after a 'double dip'.
1956 recession 19561956 Q2
1956 Q3
0.5 years
(2 Qtrs)[13]
1956 Q2: -0.2%
1956 Q3: -0.1%
Uncompetitive motor industry,[14] inflationary pressures, credit squeeze caused by high bank rate. Average inflation in 1956 totaled 4.9%.[15]
Interest rate held at 5.5%, an increase of 1.0% on the previous year.[16]
1961 recession 19611961 Q3
1961 Q4
0.5 years
(2 Qtrs)[13]
1961 Q3: -0.5%
1961 Q4: -0.2%
Time lag from the 'Rolling Adjustment' recession in America[17] and high bank rate. Interest rates were hiked from 5.0% to 7.0% in July 1961, reducing to 6.5% in October 1961 and then to 6.0% from November 1961 onwards.[16]
Mid-1970s recessions 1973-41973 Q3
1973 Q4
1974 Q1
0.75 years
(3 Qtrs)[13]
1973 Q3: -1.0%
1973 Q4: -0.4%
1974 Q1: -2.7%
1973 oil crisis, stagflation, the decline of traditional British industries, inefficient production caused by excessive union wage demands. The economy surpassed its pre-recession peak by 1976 Q4, fourteen quarters after its beginning.[10][12]
There were two single-quarterly setbacks during the recovery (aside from the double-dip) in 1974 Q4 and 1976 Q2.
Average inflation was 9.2% in 1973, 16.0% in 1974, 24.2% in 1975 and 16.5% in 1976.[15]
Interest rates fluctuated wildly during the recession with a low of 9.0% in March 1976 and a high of 15.0% in October 1976.
19751975 Q2
1975 Q3
0.5 years
(2 Qtrs)[13]
1975 Q2: -1.7%
1975 Q3: -0.3%
Early 1980s recession 1980-11980 Q1
1980 Q2
1980 Q3
1980 Q4
1981 Q1
1.25 years
(5 Qtr)[13]
1980 Q1: -1.7%
1980 Q2: -2.0%
1980 Q3: -0.2%
1980 Q4: -1.0%
1981 Q1: -0.3%
Deflationary government policies including spending cuts, pursuance of monetarism to reduce inflation, switch from a manufacturing economy to a services economy. Company earnings decline 35%.
Unemployment rises from 5.3% of the working population in August 1979 to 11.9% in 1984[18]
Took thirteen quarters for GDP to recover to its pre-recession peak at the end of 1979.[10]
Annual inflation was 18.0% in 1980, 11.9% in 1981, 8.6% in 1982 and 4.6% in 1983.[15]
Interest rates generally declined during the recession from a peak of 17.0% at the beginning of 1980 to a low of 9.6% in October 1982.[16]
Early 1990s recession 1990-11990 Q3
1990 Q4
1991 Q1
1991 Q2
1991 Q3
1.25 years
(5 Qtrs)[13]
1990 Q3: -1.1%
1990 Q4: -0.4%
1991 Q1: -0.3%
1991 Q2: -0.2%
1991 Q3: -0.3%
US savings and loan crisis, high bank rate in response to rising inflation caused by the Lawson Boom and to maintain British membership of the Exchange Rate Mechanism. Company earnings decline 25%.
Peak budget deficit ~8% of GDP.
Unemployment rises from 6.9% of the working population in 1990 to 10.7% in 1993[18]
Took eleven quarters for GDP to recover to its pre-recession peak in the Spring of 1990.[10]
Annual inflation was 9.5% in 1990, 5.9% in 1991, 3.7% in 1992. and 1.6% in 1993.[15]
Interest rates were stubbornly high initially but declined from a high of 14.8% at the start of the recession to a low of 5.9% by the end of the recession,[16] though interest rates were hiked twice during Black Wednesday.
Great Recession 2008-92008 Q2
2008 Q3
2008 Q4
2009 Q1
2009 Q2
1.25 years
(5 Qtrs)
2008 Q2: -0.2%
2008 Q3: -1.7%
2008 Q4: -2.2%
2009 Q1: -1.8%
2009 Q2: -0.3%
Late 2000s financial crisis, rising global commodity prices, subprime mortgage crisis infiltrating the British banking sector, significant credit crunch. The recession lasted from for five quarters and was the deepest UK recession since the war.[13]
Manufacturing output declined 7% by end 2008.
It affected many sectors including banks and investment firms, with many well known and established businesses having to fold.[19]
The unemployment rate rose to 8.3% (2.68m people) in August 2011, the highest level since 1994.
There was much speculation of a 'double dip' recession during the 2010s, but this proved not to be the case, and GDP exceeded its pre-recession peak by 2013 Q3.[20]

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Q&A: What is a recession?". BBC News. 8 July 2008. 
  2. ^ "Glossary of Treasury terms". HM Treasury. Retrieved 25 October 2012. 
  3. ^ http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/spending_chart_1800_1830UKb_12c1li011mcn_
  4. ^ a b c d http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/spending_chart_1800_1900UKb_12c1li011mcn_
  5. ^ a b http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=XCJaq77qIRIC&printsec=frontcover&dq=british+imperialism+hopkins&hl=en&sa=X&ei=aP7RUKmHDYnItAa_7oHwBA&ved=0CDMQ6AEwAA#v=snippet&q=boom&f=false
  6. ^ http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/spending_chart_1856_1859UKk_12c1li011mcn_
  7. ^ http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/spending_chart_1865_1868UKk_12c1li011mcn_
  8. ^ a b D Smith, Sunday Times (UK) 9 November 2008
  9. ^ NIESR graph of 6 UK recessions
  10. ^ a b c d Bank of England February 2009 Quarterly inflation report
  11. ^ D Sandbrook. Daily Mail (UK) 8 November 2008
  12. ^ a b UK economy tracker
  13. ^ Cite error: The named reference Latest_UK_GDP_data was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  14. ^ http://archive.spectator.co.uk/article/13th-july-1956/28/economic-policy-and-the-motor-recession
  15. ^ a b c d http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/bills/article-1633409/Historic-inflation-calculator-value-money-changed-1900.html
  16. ^ a b c d https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AonYZs4MzlZbcGhOdG0zTG1EWkVQTjBYWm9pWHVRWkE&hl=en#gid=0
  17. ^ http://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/past-recessions.asp
  18. ^ a b "UK unemployment" FT 20 November 2008
  19. ^ CBI February 2009 Economic forecast
  20. ^ "Quarterly National Accounts, Q2 2014". Office for National Statistics. 30 September 2014. 

External links[edit]