Margin of Error (The Wire)
|"Margin of Error"|
|The Wire episode|
|Episode no.||Season 4
|Directed by||Dan Attias|
|Teleplay by||Eric Overmyer|
|Story by||Ed Burns
|Original air date||October 15, 2006|
|Running time||58 minutes|
"Margin of Error" is the sixth episode of the fourth season of the HBO original series The Wire. Written by Eric Overmyer from a story by Ed Burns & Eric Overmyer, and directed by Dan Attias, it originally aired on October 15, 2006.
The title refers to the results of a poll on voting intentions for the mayoral primary featured in the series. In statistical analysis, the margin of error expresses the amount of the random variation underlying a survey's results. This can be thought of as a measure of the variation one would see in reported percentages if the same poll were taken multiple times. The larger the margin of error, the less confidence one has that the poll's reported percentages are close to the "true" percentages, that is the percentages in the whole population.
|“||Don't try this shit at home. - Norman Wilson||”|
This is made in reference of Norman chiding Carcetti for trying to handle the vote turnout of the primary election on his own. This also is in reference of Sergeant Hauk trying to lead an improper investigation on Marlo with the use of a camera obtained through improper protocol, as well as Namond becoming further immersed in the drug game.
- Isiah Whitlock, Jr. as Senator R. Clayton "Clay" Davis
- Jermaine Crawford as Duquan "Dukie" Weems
- Maestro Harrell as Randy Wagstaff
- Julito McCullum as Namond Brice
- Tristan Wilds as Michael Lee
- Gbenga Akinnagbe as Chris Partlow
- Hassan Johnson as Roland "Wee-Bey" Brice
- Megan Anderson as Jen Carcetti
- Tootsie Duvall as Assistant Principal Marcia Donnelly
- Michael Hyatt as Brianna Barksdale
- Jay Landsman as Lieutenant Dennis Mello
- Ed Norris as Detective Ed Norris
- Delaney Williams as Sergeant Jay Landsman
- Marlyne Afflack as Naresse Campbell
- Brandy Burre as Theresa D'Agostino
- Dravon James as Mrs. Grace Sampson
- Karen Vicks as Gerry
- Christopher Mann as Councilman Anthony Gray
- Frederick Strother as State Delegate Odell Watkins
- Reverend Frank Reid as Revered Reid Franklin
- Melvin Williams as The Deacon
- Tevin Brown as Unknown
- Nathan Corbett as Donut
- Thuliso Dingwall as Kenard
- Denise Hart as Miss Anna Jeffries
- Sandi McCree as De'Londa Brice
- Jonnie Louis Brown as Officer Eddie Walker
- Benjamin Busch as Officer Anthony Colicchio
- Michael Salconi as Officer Michael Santangelo
- Corbin Smith as Monell
- Brian Anthony Wilson as Detective Vernon Holley
- Queen Nzinga Ama Linton as female rail passenger
- Isis McCray as Girl who was taken into the bathroom
- Felicia Pearson as Snoop
- Jack Seeley as Bigoted voter
- Gregory L. Williams as Detective Michael Crutchfield
- S. Robert Morgan as Butchie (voice only)
- Darrell M. Smith as School Officer Turner
- Diana Villamonte as Mrs. Rachel Shapiro – eighth grade teacher
- Demetria Bailey as Mrs. Perlene Scott – eighth grade teacher
- Jeffrey Lorenzo as Karim Williams
- Taylor King as Zenobia Dawson
- Davone Cooper as Darnell Tyson
- Jason Wharton as Albert Stokes
- Michael Coley as Kwame
- Na'Dria Jennings as Chandra Porter
- Edward Green as Spider
- Tyrell Baker as Little Kevin
- Donnie Andrews as Donnie
- Derrick Purvey as Big Guy
- Corbin Smith as Monell
- Tony Ruggieri as Amtrak Police Supervisor
- Susan Lynskey as lip reader in van
- Unknown as Ms. Hanson - older African American veteran eighth grade teacher
- Unknown as Tiff
- Unknown as Paul
- Unknown as Markeith
- Unknown as Latonya
Churchgoers gather for services two days before the primary election. All three mayoral candidates (incumbent Mayor Clarence Royce, Councilman Anthony Gray and Councilman Tommy Carcetti) are in attendance at separate churches with their families. As Randy Wagstaff arrives at another church with his foster mother, Miss Anna, he is watched by Bodie Broadus and his crew of drug dealers including Little Kevin. Inside Reverend Franklin's church, other revelers enjoying the gospel music include Carcetti's deputy campaign manager Norman Wilson, State Delegate Odell Watkins, middle school teacher Grace Sampson and Carcetti staffer Gerry.
Reverend Franklin offers a sermon from Exodus about the careful selection of leaders from the people. He urges the people to look for men of truth, who fear God and hate covetousness, to be their leaders. After his ceremony, Royce greets the churchgoers. On his way out Tommy talks to the preacher with his wife, Jen Carcetti. He tells the preacher that Moses is a high standard to hold him to and even blasphemes in front of the preacher. The preacher is jovial and wishes him luck after noticing that Watkins is handing out fliers for him.
Carcetti campaigns in the downtown area with Wilson. He is greeted by a science teacher from Baltimore County who agrees with his policies but is not a city resident and therefore not eligible to vote in the city's election. Watkins comes over to show Carcetti a flier he has found. It claims that Carcetti once defended a notorious slumlord named Bobby Harrison from prosecution over his poor treatment of his tenants. Harrison is hated throughout Baltimore, and the flier even has a photograph of the two together on the courthouse steps. Wilson recognizes the flier as a last-minute smear attempt. Carcetti realizes that the photo is a fake and becomes pessimistic about his chances of winning in the face of these tactics. Gerry and Wilson immediately formulate plans to respond to the flier.
Carcetti meets with his campaign staff, including campaign manager Theresa D'Agostino, to discuss their response to the flier. D'Agostino has a printer on retainer and plans to produce counter literature. Wilson offers to use his contacts at the Baltimore Sun newspaper to find the original photo of Bobby Harrison and thereby prove that the photo is a fake. Carcetti remains agitated and his staff urge him to carry on with his schedule while they deal with the problem.
Later Tommy and Jen watch TV news coverage of the controversial flier. The news reports that Carcetti and Royce are in a dead heat while Gray trails. Jen asks about the smear flier and Tommy tells her about his staff's positive response. In the morning Wilson arrives to pick Tommy up, but finds he has already left for the office. Wilson finds Tommy second-guessing their strategy and advises him to follow the advice of the staff he has hired and appear on the morning talk shows.
Carcetti returns to the campaign headquarters feeling more positive after his successful radio appearances. He is still concerned about the smear campaign. Wilson has news that State Senator Clay Davis is interested in supporting Carcetti, but as usual he is more interested in how much money he can make out of it. Carcetti is dubious about working with Davis, but Wilson convinces him that it may tip the balance.
Carcetti and Wilson meet Davis in a restaurant, and Davis offers to split his support between them and the mayor for twenty thousand dollars, an amount that he writes on a napkin while discussing what he will do. Carcetti and Wilson agree to pay him but leave without eating.
Namond Brice and his mother De'Londa visit Brianna Barksdale at her home. De'Londa urges Namond to be respectful because he is representing his father, Wee-Bey Brice, a feared soldier in the Barksdale organization before he went to prison without turning on them. De'Londa hopes that Brianna may have work for Namond.
Brianna has actually called the meeting to tell De'Londa that she is cutting them off. Brianna feels that she has amply compensated them for Wee-Bey's support, and with the collapse of the Barksdale organization, there is no longer any income. She no longer wants to protect her imprisoned brother Avon because she believes he had a hand in the death of her own son, D'Angelo, so she has nothing more to fear from Wee-Bey because he cannot tie her to any drug trafficking. Brianna tells the mother and son that she wanted them both to be there so that no lies could be told about her decision—implying that she wanted to tell Namond in person so that De'Londa could not lie to him later.
At home De'Londa tells Namond he is going to start dealing drugs to bring in money for the both of them. She still refuses to let him drop out of school but insists that she will convince Bodie to give him a package. Namond asks about what Brianna meant about them already having been given enough money already, and De'Londa tells him that Brianna was lying. De'Londa phones an ambivalent Wee-Bey to tell him what has happened, comparing the situation to coming home to find they had been evicted.
Major Crimes Unit
Leander Sydnor continues surveillance work of Marlo Stanfield's outdoor hangout. His sergeant Thomas "Herc" Hauk arrives with some coffee and urges him to keep at it despite the absence of anyone to watch.
Later, Sydnor watches as Stanfield, Chris Partlow, Snoop, Monk and other Stanfield lieutenants talk. Stanfield takes a phone call about picking up a "skinny girl from New York" and then insists on doing it himself.
Herc rewatches the video with Sydnor and a lip reader. She correctly follows the discussion and Herc interprets that Stanfield is picking up cocaine from New York. Sydnor is surprised that Stanfield would go near a package of narcotics himself and Herc remains insistent that Stanfield is a soft target.
Herc follows Stanfield to Penn Station. He has the transport police pick up Stanfield when he meets with a woman and carries her bag. The woman asks who Marlo is and resists his attempts to help her. She appears genuinely shocked when the police stop them. Marlo is led away by the police with a knowing smile on his face. Upon searching the bag, the police find only women's clothes and are forced to release them.
Detective Kima Greggs receives news from her partner Ed Norris that a prisoner has offered information on their case in exchange for a deal. They are still working on the politically significant murder of a state's witness named Braddock. Norris hopes to move on the information quickly to have an impact on the election. He is not hoping to sway voters, but figures it will be fun to act out against the politicians' earlier disruption of his work.
Deputy Commissioner William Rawls arrives at the unit headquarters, which surprises detectives Crutchfield and Holley. Rawls visits Sergeant Jay Landsman and explains the political danger of allowing a break in the Braddock case on the eve of the election. He then orders Landsman to detail Greggs and Norris to uniformed duty at the election polls.
Roland "Prez" Pryzbylewski catches his students Duquan "Dukie" Weems, Randy Wagstaff, Namond Brice and Michael Lee as they arrive in the morning. He asks Dukie to accompany him. Prez shows Dukie a locker in the gym where he plans to leave him fresh clothes. He offers to wash Dukie's dirty clothes for him if he leaves them in the locker and to let him in early in the morning so that he can shower.
Namond walks down the corridor with Monell and Paul, two boys who recently had a tryst in a boys' bathroom with a classmate named Tiff while Randy stood watch outside. When they pass Tiff in the corridor they ignore and then insult her.
Grace Sampson meets with the teaching staff to tell them of a new program within the school. Funds from the University of Maryland are being used to set up a class for kids with behavioral difficulties. Ten children will be in the first class but more may follow if the program is deemed successful. Mrs. Shapiro is pleased while Mrs. Scott is disappointed that only three of her worst students will be taken.
Assistant Principal Marcia Donnelly and Grace Sampson arrive in Prez's math class while he teaches fractions. She removes Namond, Zenobia Dawson and Darnell Tyson from the class. Karim Williams asks if they are being arrested. Donnelly pulls students named Markeith, Kwame and Latonya from a second class. Albert Stokes is also among those in the new class. Once the students are assembled they are taken to their new classroom. Namond notices the school security officer talking to a crying Tiff in the office.
Paul, Monell and Randy are also pulled out of class by Donnelly. Donnelly interrogates Randy about his role in what Tiff has characterized as a rape. Donnelly knows that he was a lookout and is forced to suspend him. She rings his foster mother Anna Jeffries but hangs up when Randy tells her that he knows about a murder. Later, Prez appeals to Donnelly to let him hand Randy's confession on to someone that he trusts within the police department.
Ms. Sampson, Dr. David Parenti and Howard "Bunny" Colvin introduce the concept of the special class to their new students. Darnell asks if they have to stay now that they have been chosen and Sampson informs them that the program is mandatory. Albert realizes that the class means that they will be separated from the other children in order to give them more space to learn. Sampson tells them that the new program will ready them for a normal classroom, as they have proven that they are not ready at the moment. Namond draws an analogy of prison for the new class, with their class being solitary confinement and the normal classes being the general population. Colvin jumps on the comment and confirms the analogy, using it to impress upon the children the seriousness of the program's intent.
Lieutenant Dennis Mello briefs his incoming shift and appeals for more officers to man the polling stations. He then introduces a fresh murder warrant – Omar Little is wanted for the shooting of a delivery woman in a Western District store. Jimmy McNulty is skeptical that Omar would kill someone not involved in the drug trade. Officers Anthony Colicchio and Michael Santangelo are excited at the prospect of bringing in the notorious Omar.
Prez meets with his old commander Western District Major Cedric Daniels to discuss Randy. He appeals to Daniels to prevent the boy from getting chewed up by the system. Daniels suggests that Sergeant Ellis Carver is the best person to handle Randy with discretion, having reformed his approach to police work. Daniels questions Prez's interest and Prez tells him he cares about Randy because he is one of his students.
Carver meets with Randy's foster mother Miss Anna at her home. He explains Randy's role as an unintentional go-between in the murder of Curtis "Lex" Anderson, passing a message to Lex from Little Kevin. Miss Anna questions how Randy knows Lex is dead when no body has been found, and Carver tells her Randy claims that Lex's death is common knowledge on the street. She asks about the rape at the school and Carver explains that school will handle it. Randy protests his innocence. Miss Anna worries about Randy's safety should anyone learn that he has spoken to the police. Carver assures her that Randy will be fine if he cleans up his act. She is disappointed in Randy's bad judgment, but Carver tells her he thinks Randy is a good kid.
McNulty mans a polling station while Dennis "Cutty" Wise prepares for a morning jog. As he leaves, a woman comes downstairs to ask where he is going and when he will be back. She is disappointed when Dennis is non-committal. Norris and Greggs bemoan their assignment to a polling station.
Gray is the first of the candidates to vote. Carcetti votes and then moves on to Highlandtown where Wilson thinks they can flush out his base. Carcetti passes out leaflets and flirts with a female supporter. An Italian-American man greets him and implies that it is their turn to take over from the African Americans and that white politicians will be less corrupt. He makes several derogatory racist statements in front of Wilson, who afterwards offers an amused reaction.
Back at headquarters, Davis is seen on live television offering his full support to Royce. Carcetti is shocked that Davis has brazenly failed to deliver on his promise after having taken their money.
Miss Anna and Randy arrive at the polling station, and she is worried that the queue will make her late for work. Randy recognizes Spider from Cutty's gym giving out leaflets. He asks Miss Anna if he can stay with Spider while she votes, and she reluctantly allows him. Meanwhile, Cutty is canvassed to vote, which he cannot do due to the perpetual disenfranchisement he has from felony conviction. Cutty also recognizes Spider and tries to talk to him to find out why he has not been at the gym. Spider runs away and Randy is left to talk to Cutty, who asks him to get Spider to come and see him at the gym. Randy is given a stack of leaflets to pass out by a Carcetti campaign staffer who has noticed Spider's absence. Later, Randy gets a box of leaflets to stuff in doors. The staffer pays him up front. Randy recruits Kenard, Donut and Dukie to help him. Michael is not interested. Donut steals a car to make the work faster despite Randy's objections. The team quickly gets bored and he tells them he will not pay them if they don't finish the job. When they realize that he has already been paid, they ask him why he is bothering, and he explains that it was the job he agreed to do. Randy finishes the work alone after paying his friends.
De'Londa finds Namond playing video games and asks him why he is not in school. Namond explains that the election means that school is closed. De'Londa seizes the opportunity to take Namond to see Bodie. Bodie is initially unsure but De'Londa persists and uses Wee-Bey's name to convince him. After De'Londa leaves, Bodie tells Namond that talking to her gives him insight into his personality.
Michael goes to the gym where Cutty is already flirting with another woman. Namond arrives and asks Michael for help moving his first package and Michael refuses. Cutty talks to Michael about the woman and then asks about Spider. Michael explains that Spider quit because of Cutty's involvement with his mother, then makes a cutting remark about Cutty being no "angel". When Namond returns home he is faced with his mother telling him that she is counting on him, and he assures her that his new corner duties were easy to carry out. Out of his mother's view, he dumps a full bag of drugs on his bed, indicating that he has not sold any of his package.
At home that evening, Jen and Tommy ignore constantly ringing phones. The news reports that there was a massive voter turnout and that Carcetti is in the lead. Similar scenes unfold at Royce and Gray's homes. Tommy learns that Bond is beating Demper in the State's Attorney race. This is good news for Tommy, as it shows a lack of support for Royce's ticket. Jen convinces Tommy to go for a walk with her. They make their way around the harbor and Tommy tells Jen that he hopes to make Baltimore great again. She is positive about his chances. He gets a call from D'Agostino to tell him that Royce has conceded, making him the presumptive mayor-elect because Baltimore is such a heavily Democratic city. Tommy is unsure whether he is happy about the win but finally breaks into a smile. They make their way to a celebration and Tommy thanks his supporters and his opponents, appealing for their help in the forthcoming general election and in improving Baltimore for their children. Council President Naresse Campbell congratulates Carcetti. Jen tells him that she is going home and to enjoy his night. Davis also attends the party and is unashamed of his actions, telling Carcetti he let him off lightly.
The party continues with Gerry, Wilson, Tommy, and D'Agostino in a downtown hotel. Gerry leaves with Wilson. D'Agostino comes on to Carcetti, telling him that he owes her a win bonus. He resists her overtures despite his initial response. D'Agostino tries to convince him that he cannot go against his nature, but eventually backs down when he resists a second time and tells Tommy to send her a check instead.
Officer Walker spots Omar in a convenience store. Omar realizes Walker is waiting outside for him and hides his gun in a refrigerator. Walker stops Omar and, as he waits for backup, pockets a ring Omar is wearing—the same ring that Omar took from Marlo Stanfield during his robbery of Marlo's poker game. When Omar talks back, Walker brutally pushes him into the wall and knocks him over. When Omar claims that Walker is being unfair as there is no charge against him, Walker informs him that he is facing a murder charge. Colicchio and McNulty arrive on the scene, where Colicchio mocks Omar for not having his shotgun with him. McNulty then explains he is being arrested on a robbery/murder warrant. Officer Santangelo arrives with the wagon, and Omar asks McNulty for a phone call before he is taken in. McNulty gives him his own personal cell phone and dials Butchie for him. Butchie reassures Omar that he will pay his bail and offers him support even when Omar tells him there will be no bail because the charge is murder. Santangelo playfully mocks McNulty as being a "Democrat" for aiding Omar.
When Omar is brought into the prison, he is faced with aggression from most of the other inmates, many of whom he has robbed in the past. Omar prepares for the worst when two men are sent into his cell. One of them carries a knife. After a tense stand-off, Omar is immensely relieved to be told that Butchie sent them to protect him.
- "Margin of Error" at HBO.com
- "Margin of Error" at the Internet Movie Database
- "Margin of Error" at TV.com