New South Wales state election, 2011
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| Election campaign, next < 2003 2007 next |
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| Government | Opposition | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australian Labor Party | Liberal/National coalition | |||
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 |
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| Kristina Keneally | Barry O'Farrell | |||
| Leader since | 2009 | 2007 | ||
| Leader rating[1] | 39% | 39% | ||
| 2PP rating[1] | 39% | 61% | ||
| 2007 2PP result | 52.3% | 47.7% | ||
| Seats | 50 | 37 | ||
| Seats needed | 0 | 12 | ||
| Swing needed | 0.0 | 6.9 | ||
The next New South Wales state election will occur on 26 March 2011 and will elect members of the 55th Parliament of New South Wales. The incumbent Australian Labor Party will be challenged by the opposition Liberal-National coalition. The lower house uses optional preference voting, with the upper house using single transferrable voting with optional group voting tickets.
Contents |
[edit] Legislative Assembly
The centre-left Labor Party, led by Premier Kristina Keneally, and the centre-right Liberal Party, led by Leader of the Opposition Barry O'Farrell, are the two main parties in New South Wales. In the 2007 state election, of 93 seats total, Labor won 52 seats, the Liberals won 22 seats and the Nationals, led by Andrew Stoner, who are in coalition with the Liberals, won 13 seats. Six seats were retained by independents. Smaller parties which hold no seats in the lower House but achieved significant votes in 2007 include The Greens and the Christian Democratic Party.
On 18 October 2008, four state electorates (Lakemba, Ryde, Cabramatta, Port Macquarie) went to by-elections as a result the resignation of the Premier and two of his ministers, and an independent who left in order to contest a federal by-election. The results in Ryde, Cabramatta, and Lakemba showed the largest by-election swing against Labor in its history.[2] The results showed a significant swing towards the Liberal Party with a swing of 22.7% in former health minister Reba Meagher's seat of Cabramatta, but was retained by ALP candidate Nick Lalich, [2] and a swing of 13% against Labor in former premier Morris Iemma's seat of Lakemba, also retained by an ALP candidate, Robert Furolo.[2] Ryde, once a safe Labor seat, with a swing of 23.1% delivered former deputy premier John Watkins' seat to Victor Dominello. Peter Besseling, the independent candidate, won Port Macquarie, left vacant after the resignation of Nationals-turned-independent member Robert Oakeshott, over the Nationals by a two-party preferred margin of 54.5% to 45.5%, despite a swing of 23.7% to the Nationals.
Due on 19 June 2010 a by-election in the electoral district of Penrith[3] was triggered as a result of the resignation of Labor Party MP Karyn Paluzzano who quit after it was revealed that she had lied to an ICAC corruption hearing regarding the mis-use of taxpayer funds to pay for her re-election campaign.[4] The Liberals contested and won the by-election with a swing of over 25% two party preferred to Liberal candidate Stuart Ayres, the biggest swing against an incumbent government in New South Wales history.[5]
[edit] Current pendulum
The following pendulum is known as the Mackerras Pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras. The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in the Legislative Assembly according to the percentage point margin they are held by on a two party preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.
[edit] Legislative Council
Labor MLC Michael Costa resigned on 22 September 2008. Unions NSW secretary John Robertson was nominated by Labor as his successor, and was formally appointed at a joint sitting of parliament on 28 October.
Gordon Moyes was appointed in 2002 as a member of the Christian Democratic Party to fill the casual vacancy caused by Elaine Nile's resignation from the Legislative Council. He was elected in 2003. Having been expelled from the party in March 2009, he sat as an independent until November 2009 when he joined the Family First Party.
Labor MLC Henry Tsang resigned effective 3 December 2009. Former Mayor of the City of Rockdale Shaoquett Moselmane was nominated by Labor as his successor, and was formally appointed at a joint sitting of parliament on 3 December.
On 7 June 2010, Labor Minister Ian Macdonald resigned from the Legislative Council after resigning from the ministry when it was discovered that he had mis-used taxpayer funds to fund a private holiday in Europe.[6][7] In total, 12 of the 22 Ministers sworn in after the last State election have resigned or been replaced to date.[7] Assistant general secretary of the NSW branch of the ALP Luke Foley was nominated by Labor as his successor, and was formally appointed at a joint sitting of parliament on 10 June 2010.
Greens MLC Lee Rhiannon resigned on 19 July 2010 to contest a seat for the Federal Senate at the 2010 election. She is due to be replaced by former Director of the NSW Conservation Council Cate Faehrmann.
[edit] Current balance
| Party | Seats held | Current Council | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | Now | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Australian Labor Party | 19 | 19 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Liberal Party of Australia | 10 | 10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| National Party of Australia | 5 | 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The Greens | 4 | 4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Shooters Party | 2 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Christian Democratic Party | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Family First Party | 0 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
[edit] Retiring Members
Where a Member of the Legislative Assembly or Legislative Council does not renominate to contest the election, their term will end at the dissolution of the parliament. Members who have indicated their intention to retire are:
Labor
- Amanda Fazio MLC
- Ian West MLC
- Graham West MLA (Campbelltown)
Liberal
- Peter Debnam MLA (Vaucluse)
- Judy Hopwood MLA (Hornsby)
- Wayne Merton MLA (Baulkham Hills)
- Michael Richardson MLA (Castle Hill)
National
- John Turner MLA (Myall Lakes)
- Russell Turner MLA (Orange)
Greens
- Ian Cohen MLC
- Sylvia Hale MLC
[edit] Polling
Newspoll polling is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes consist of around 1200-1300 electors. The declared margin of error is ±3 percent. The two-party preferred figure is calculated based on preference flows at the previous election.
| Date | Labor Keneally |
Liberal O'Farrell |
Uncommitted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul – Aug 2010 | 39% | 39% | 22% |
| May – Jun 2010 | 44% | 36% | 20% |
| Mar – Apr 2010 | 45% | 30% | 25% |
| Jan – Feb 2010 | 40% | 31% | 29% |
| Nov – Dec 2009 | 35% | 34% | 31% |
| Sep – Oct 2009 | 31%3 | 36% | 33% |
| Jul – Aug 2009 | 32%3 | 33% | 35% |
| May – Jun 2009 | 33%3 | 32% | 35% |
| Mar – Apr 2009 | 33%3 | 31% | 36% |
| Jan – Feb 2009 | 34%3 | 29% | 37% |
| Nov – Dec 2008 | 30%3 | 33% | 37% |
| Sep – Oct 2008 | 35%3 | 28% | 37% |
| Jul – Aug 2008 | 32%1 | 39% | 29% |
| May – Jun 2008 | 32%1 | 39% | 29% |
| Mar – Apr 2008 | 36%1 | 33% | 31% |
| Jan – Mar 2008 | 37%1 | 30% | 33% |
| Pre 2007 election | 58%1 | 24%2 | 18% |
| Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. 1 Morris Iemma, 2 Peter Debnam 3 Nathan Rees |
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| Political parties | Two party preferred | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dates | ALP | Lib | Nat | Grn | Oth | ALP | Lib/Nat | |||
| Jul – Aug 2010 | 25% | 41% | 5% | 14% | 15% | 39% | 61% | |||
| May – Jun 2010 | 25% | 41% | 5% | 16% | 12% | 39% | 61% | |||
| Mar – Apr 2010 | 31% | 37% | 5% | 14% | 13% | 45% | 55% | |||
| Jan – Feb 2010 | 30% | 39% | 3% | 12% | 14% | 43% | 57% | |||
| Nov – Dec 2009 | 26% | 39% | 5% | 17% | 13% | 41% | 59% | |||
| Sep – Oct 2009 | 30% | 36% | 6% | 12% | 16% | 45% | 55% | |||
| Jul – Aug 2009 | 32% | 37% | 4% | 14% | 13% | 46% | 54% | |||
| May – Jun 2009 | 31% | 36% | 5% | 14% | 14% | 45% | 55% | |||
| Mar – Apr 2009 | 33% | 36% | 4% | 13% | 14% | 47% | 53% | |||
| Jan – Feb 2009 | 30% | 38% | 4% | 15% | 13% | 44% | 56% | |||
| Nov – Dec 2008 | 26% | 38% | 5% | 14% | 17% | 41% | 59% | |||
| Sep – Oct 2008 | 29% | 38% | 4% | 11% | 18% | 44% | 56% | |||
| Jul – Aug 2008 | 33% | 36% | 4% | 13% | 14% | 48% | 52% | |||
| May – Jun 2008 | 32% | 36% | 5% | 13% | 14% | 48% | 52% | |||
| Mar – Apr 2008 | 35% | 35% | 3% | 14% | 13% | 51% | 49% | |||
| Jan – Mar 2008 | 34% | 34% | 5% | 14% | 13% | 50% | 50% | |||
| 2007 election | 39.0% | 26.9% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 15.0% | 52.3% | 47.7% | |||
| 21 – 22 Mar 2007 | 42% | 29% | 6% | 6% | 17% | 56.5% | 43.5% | |||
| Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. |
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[edit] See also
[edit] References
- ^ a b February 24, 2010 12:00AM (2010-02-24). "Keneally scores but NSW Labor stays in poll dead zone". The Australian. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/state-politics/keneally-scores-but-nsw-labor-stays-in-poll-dead-zone/story-e6frgczx-1225833653586. Retrieved 2010-06-21.
- ^ a b c "A turning point for the Libs". The Daily Telegraph. 2008-10-20. http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,24520701-5001021,00.html. Retrieved 2009-05-20.
- ^ "Liar Paluzzano resigns from parliament". The Daily Telegraph. 2010-05-07. http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/liar-paluzzano-resigns-from-parliament/story-e6freuy9-1225863519405. Retrieved 2010-05-08.
- ^ "Date set for Penrith by-election". ABC. 10 May 2010. http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/05/11/2896347.htm. Retrieved 11 May 2010.
- ^ http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/libs-claim-victory-in-penrith-20100619-ynk2.html | Sydney Morning Herald, Liberals win Penrith | Retrieved 2010-06-19
- ^ Nicholls, Sean (7 June 2010). "Expenses errors: Macdonald quits NSW parliament". smh.com.au. http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/expenses-errors-macdonald-quits-nsw-parliament-20100607-xq5m.html. Retrieved 7 June 2010.
- ^ a b http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/macdonald-sacked-for-expenses-rort-20100604-xklp.html?rand=1275893261851| www.smh.com.au | Ian Mcdonald sacked for taxpayer rort | Retrieved 2010-06-10
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