Next Australian federal election

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Next Australian federal election
Australia
2013 ←
On or before 14 January 2017

All 150 seats in the Australian House of Representatives
and 40 (of the 76) seats in the Australian Senate
Opinion polls
  Tony Abbott Bill Shorten
Leader Tony Abbott Bill Shorten
Party Liberal/National coalition Labor
Leader since 1 December 2009 (2009-12-01) 13 October 2013 (2013-10-13)
Leader's seat Warringah Maribyrnong
Last election 90 seats 55 seats
Seats needed Steady Increase21
2013 TPP 53.5% 46.5%
TPP polling 46% 54%
BPM polling 37% 37%

Incumbent Prime Minister

Tony Abbott
Liberal/National coalition

The next Australian federal election will elect members of the 45th Parliament of Australia. The election will be called following the dissolution or expiry of the 44th Parliament. It must be held on or before 14 January 2017.

Australia has compulsory voting, uses full-preference instant-runoff voting in single member seats for the lower house, the Australian House of Representatives, and single transferable vote group voting tickets in the proportionally represented upper house, the Australian Senate.

Date[edit]

The last federal election was held on 7 September 2013, and the 44th Parliament of Australia opened on 12 November 2013. [1] The first date that a normal House and half-Senate election can be held is 6 August 2016.[2] The last date on which the next election can be held is 14 January 2017, which is calculated in the following way:[3]

  • Section 12 of the Constitution says: "The Governor of any State may cause writs to be issued for the election of Senators for that State"
  • Section 13 of the Constitution provides that the election of Senators shall be held in the period of twelve months before the places become vacant.
  • Section 28 of the Constitution says: "Every House of Representatives shall continue for three years from the first sitting of the House, and no longer, but may be sooner dissolved by the Governor-General."[4] Since the 44th Parliament of Australia opened on 12 November 2013, it will expire on 11 November 2016.
  • Section 32 of the Constitution says: "The writs shall be issued within ten days from the expiry of a House of Representatives or from the proclamation of a dissolution thereof." Ten days after 11 November 2016 is 21 November 2016.
  • Section 156 (1) of the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 (CEA) says: "The date fixed for the nomination of the candidates shall not be less than 10 days nor more than 27 days after the date of the writ". [5] Twenty-seven days after 21 November 2016 is 18 December 2016.
  • Section 157 of the CEA says: "The date fixed for the polling shall not be less than 23 days nor more than 31 days after the date of nomination". [6] Thirty-one days after 18 December 2016 is 18 January 2017.
  • Section 158 of the CEA says: "The day fixed for the polling shall be a Saturday".[7] The Saturday before 18 January 2017 is 14 January 2017. This is therefore the latest possible date for the election.

The last possible date for a double dissolution is 16 July 2016.[2]

Background[edit]

The Coalition won the 2013 federal election with 90 of 150 lower house seats on a 17-seat 3.6 percent two-party swing, defeating the 6-year Labor government. Labor holds 55 seats while crossbenchers hold the remaining five.

The Abbott Government was sworn into office on 18 September 2013.[8]

Kevin Rudd resigned as leader of the Australian Labor Party following the defeat of the party. Chris Bowen was the interim leader of the Labor Party in the lead-up to a leadership election. Two candidates, Anthony Albanese and Bill Shorten, declared their candidacy for the Labor leadership, with Shorten declared the winner on 13 October 2013.

On 22 November 2013 Kevin Rudd resigned from parliament after 15 years, triggering a 2014 Griffith by-election. Terri Butler retained the seat for Labor.

As a result of lost ballot papers, on 18 February 2014 the High Court of Australia ordered a new half-Senate election for Western Australia, which took place on Saturday 5 April 2014.

Senator John Madigan resigned from the DLP and became an independent Senator in September 2014, citing long-term internal party tensions.[9]

Retiring MPs and senators[edit]

Members and senators who have chosen not to renominate are as follows:

Labor[edit]

Opinion polls[edit]

House of Representatives polling
Date Firm Primary vote TPP vote
L/NP ALP Green Other L/NP ALP
30–31 Aug, 6–7 Sep 2014 Morgan 38% 37% 10.5% 14.5% 46% 54%
5–7 Sep 2014 Newspoll 39% 35% 14% 12% 48% 52%
22–24 Aug 2014 Newspoll 40% 34% 11% 15% 49% 51%
16–17, 23–24 Aug 2014 Morgan 37.5% 38.5% 10.5% 13.5% 44.5% 55.5%
19 Aug 2014 Essential 40% 38% 9% 13% 48% 52%
9–10 Aug 2014 Morgan 37.5% 38% 11% 13.5% 44% 56%
8–10 Aug 2014 Newspoll 40% 34% 13% 13% 48% 52%
25–27 Jul 2014 Newspoll 36% 36% 12% 16% 46% 54%
11–13 Jul 2014 Newspoll 36% 37% 11% 16% 46% 54%
1 Jul 2014 Essential[11] 40% 38% 9% 13% 48% 52%
30 Jun 2014 Morgan[12] 35% 36.5% 12% 16.5% 42.5% 57.5%
27–29 Jun 2014 Newspoll 35% 37% 13% 15% 45% 55%
13–15 Jun 2014 Newspoll 37% 36% 10% 17% 47% 53%
30 May – 1 Jun 2014 Newspoll 36% 37% 12% 15% 46% 54%
27 May 2014 Essential[13] 40% 39% 9% 12% 48% 52%
20 May 2014 Essential[14] 40% 40% 8% 12% 48% 52%
17–18 May 2014 Morgan[15] 35% 38.5% 12% 14.5% 42.5% 57.5%
16–18 May 2014 Newspoll 36% 38% 11% 15% 45% 55%
15–17 May 2014 Nielsen[16] 35% 40% 14% 12% 44% 56%
2–4 May 2014 Newspoll[17] 38% 34% 14% 14% 47% 53%
4 May 2014 Galaxy[18] 39% 37% 11% 13% 48% 52%
30 Apr 2014 Essential[19] 40% 38% 10% 11% 48% 52%
22 Apr 2014 Morgan[20] 38.5% 34% 13% 14.5% 48% 52%
15 Apr 2014 Essential[21] 42% 37% 10% 11% 50% 50%
13 Apr 2014 Nielsen[22] 40% 34% 17% 19% 48% 52%
8 Apr 2014 Essential[23] 42% 38% 9% 11% 49% 51%
7 Apr 2014 Morgan[24] 38.5% 34.5% 12% 15% 48.5% 51.5%
4–6 Apr 2014 Newspoll[25] 43% 34% 11% 12% 51% 49%
25 Mar 2014 Morgan[26] 38% 38.5% 11% 12.5% 45.5% 54.5%
25 Mar 2014 Essential[27] 44% 37% 9% 11% 51% 49%
21–23 Mar 2014 Newspoll[28] 40% 36% 13% 11% 48% 52%
18 Mar 2014 Essential[29] 43% 36% 9% 12% 51% 49%
13–15 Mar 2014 Nielsen[30] 44% 35% 12% 10% 51% 49%
7–9 Mar 2014 Newspoll 41% 35% 11% 13% 49% 51%
5 Mar 2014 Essential[31] 44% 38% 8% 10% 51% 49%
21–23 Feb 2014 Newspoll[32] 39% 39% 10% 12% 46% 54%
23 Feb 2014 Morgan[33] 41% 35.5% 10.5% 13% 49.5% 50.5%
15 Feb 2014 Nielsen[34] 44% 33% 12% 11% 52% 48%
7–9 Feb 2014 Newspoll[35] 41% 35% 12% 12% 49% 51%
28 Jan 2014 Morgan[36] 39.5% 37% 11.5% 12% 47% 53%
23 Jan 2014 ReachTEL 39.8% 40.6% 9.1% 9.1% 47% 53%
17–20 Jan 2014 Essential[37] 43% 37% 9% 11% 51% 49%
13 Jan 2014 Morgan[38] 38% 39% 10.5% 12.5% 47.5% 52.5%
16 Dec 2013 Morgan[39] 40.5% 38.5% 10% 11% 47.5% 52.5%
15 Dec 2013 ReachTEL 41.4% 40.4% 8.7% 9.5% 48% 52%
6–8 Dec 2013 Newspoll 40% 38% 11% 11% 48% 52%
28 Nov – 2 Dec 2013 Essential[40] 44% 36% 8% 11% 52% 48%
30 Nov – 1 Dec 2013 Morgan (multi)[41] 41.5% 38.5% 8.5% 12.5% 48.5% 51.5%
22–24 Nov 2013 Newspoll 43% 35% 10% 12% 52% 48%
21–23 Nov 2013 Nielsen[42] 41% 37% 11% 11% 48% 52%
8–10 Nov 2013 Newspoll 45% 32% 12% 11% 53% 47%
25–27 Oct 2013 Newspoll 47% 31% 10% 12% 56% 44%
2013 election 45.6% 33.4% 8.7% 12.3% 53.5% 46.5%
4–6 Sep 2013 Morgan (multi) 45% 31.5% 9.5% 14% 54.5% 44.5%
5 Sep 2013 ReachTEL[43] 43.5% 33.7% 10.2% 12.6% 53% 47%
3–5 Sep 2013 Newspoll 46% 33% 9% 12% 54% 46%
Preferred Prime Minister and satisfaction polling^
Date Firm Preferred Prime Minister Abbott Shorten
Abbott Shorten Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied
5–7 Sep 2014 Newspoll 37% 37% 35% 54% 36% 43%
22–24 Aug 2014 Newspoll 39% 40% 36% 55% 40% 39%
8–10 Aug 2014 Newspoll 41% 37% 36% 54% 36% 44%
25–27 Jul 2014 Newspoll 38% 38% 36% 53% 38% 41%
11–13 Jul 2014 Newspoll 36% 41% 31% 60% 34% 43%
27–29 Jun 2014 Newspoll 34% 44% 31% 62% 34% 41%
13–15 Jun 2014 Newspoll 37% 40% 30% 61% 34% 45%
30 May – 1 Jun 2014 Newspoll 35% 45% 33% 59% 38% 43%
16–18 May 2014 Newspoll 34% 44% 30% 60% 42% 39%
15–17 May 2014 Nielsen 40% 51% 34% 62% 47% 39%
2–4 May 2014 Newspoll 40% 38% 35% 56% 35% 41%
13 Apr 2014 Nielsen 45% 44% 43% 50% 43% 41%
8 Apr 2014 Essential 42% 32% 41% 47% 34% 38%
4–6 Apr 2014 Newspoll 41% 33% 40% 47% 31% 42%
21–23 Mar 2014 Newspoll 43% 36% 40% 50% 36% 43%
13–15 Mar 2014 Nielsen 48% 43% 45% 49% 42% 42%
7–9 Mar 2014 Newspoll 42% 36% 38% 50% 33% 43%
21–23 Feb 2014 Newspoll[32] 38% 37% 36% 52% 35% 39%
15 Feb 2014 Nielsen[32] 49% 39% 45% 47% 40% 40%
7–9 Feb 2014 Newspoll 41% 33% 40% 45% 35% 35%
6–8 Dec 2013 Newspoll 41% 34% 40% 45% 44% 27%
22–24 Nov 2013 Newspoll 44% 33% 42% 42% 39% 27%
21–23 Nov 2013 Nielsen[42] 49% 41% 47% 46% 51% 30%
8–10 Nov 2013 Newspoll 46% 30% 45% 38% 37% 24%
25–27 Oct 2013 Newspoll 47% 28% 47% 34% 32% 24%
2013 election
3–5 Sep 2013 Newspoll 45% 44% 50%
^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader.


See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ [1]
  2. ^ a b Green, Antony (12 November 2013). "Timetable for the Next Federal Election". abc.net.au. Retrieved 13 November 2013. 
  3. ^ Rob Lundie, Australian elections timetable, Parliament of Australia
  4. ^ Commonwealth Of Australia Constitution Act – Section 28
  5. ^ Commonwealth Electoral Act, s. 156
  6. ^ Commonwealth Electoral Act, s. 157
  7. ^ Commonwealth Electoral Act, s. 158
  8. ^ "Abbott's team to be sworn in next week". theage.com.au. 9 September 2013. Retrieved 13 September 2013. 
  9. ^ Senator Madigan cuts ties with Democratic Labour Party, will serve out term as independent: ABC 4 September 2014
  10. ^ http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/labor-stalwart-senator-john-faulkner-to-retire/story-fn59niix-1226900934381#
  11. ^ Essential. 1 Jul 2014 http://essentialvision.com.au/category/essentialreport |url= missing title (help). Retrieved 6 Jul 2014. 
  12. ^ Morgan. 30 Jun 2014 http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5659-federal-voting-intention-june-30-2014-201406300634 |url= missing title (help). Retrieved 6 Jul 2014. 
  13. ^ Essential. 30 Apr 2014 http://essentialvision.com.au/federal-politics-voting-intention-32 |url= missing title (help). Retrieved 4 May 2014. 
  14. ^ Essential. 20 Apr 2014 http://essentialvision.com.au/federal-politics-voting-intention-32 |url= missing title (help). Retrieved 28 May 2014. 
  15. ^ Essential. 18 May 2014 http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5591-morgan-poll-federal-voting-intention-may-19-2014-201405190655 |url= missing title (help). Retrieved 20 May 2014. 
  16. ^ Essential. 18 May 2014 http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abandoned-pm-pays-price-for-broken-promises-20140518-38hzw.html |url= missing title (help). Retrieved 18 May 2014. 
  17. ^ Essential. 6 May 2014 http://resources.news.com.au/files/2014/05/05/1226906/646587-140506newspoll.pdf |url= missing title (help). Retrieved 6 May 2014. 
  18. ^ Galaxy. 4 May 2014 http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/tony-abbott-would-lose-an-election-if-it-was-held-now-as-voters-see-his-deficit-tax-plan-as-a-broken-promise/story-fni0cx12-1226904396057 |url= missing title (help). Retrieved 4 May 2014. 
  19. ^ Essential. 30 Apr 2014 http://essentialvision.com.au/federal-politics-voting-intention-32 |url= missing title (help). Retrieved 4 May 2014. 
  20. ^ Morgaj. 22 Apr 2014 http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5547-federal-voting-intention-april-22-2014-201404220518 |url= missing title (help). Retrieved 4 May 2014. 
  21. ^ Essential. 15 Apr 2014 http://essentialvision.com.au/category/essentialreport |url= missing title (help). Retrieved 15 Apr 2014. 
  22. ^ "Tony Abbott slumps in polls despite best week yet". Nielsen. 13 Apr 2014. Retrieved 15 Apr 2014. 
  23. ^ Essential. 8 Apr 2014 http://essentialvision.com.au/category/essentialreport |url= missing title (help). Retrieved 10 Apr 2014. 
  24. ^ Morgan. 7 Apr 2014 http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5526-morgan-poll-federal-voting-intention-april-7-2014-201404070713 |url= missing title (help). Retrieved 15 Apr 2014. 
  25. ^ Newspoll. 8 Apr 2014 http://polling.newspoll.com.au.tmp.anchor.net.au/image_uploads/140401%20Federal%20Voting%20Intention%20&%20Leaders%20Ratings.pdf |url= missing title (help). Retrieved 10 Apr 2014. 
  26. ^ Morgan. 25 Mar 2014 http://www.roymorgan.com/morganpoll |url= missing title (help). Retrieved 28 Mar 2014. 
  27. ^ "Federal politics- Voting intention". Essential. 25 Mar 2014. Retrieved 27 Mar 2014. 
  28. ^ The Australian. 17 Feb 2014 http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/polling |url= missing title (help). Retrieved 25 Mar 2014. 
  29. ^ "Federal politics- Voting intention". Essential. 18 Mar 2014. Retrieved 27 Mar 2014. 
  30. ^ "PM backed despite job losses". Sydney Morning Herald. 17 Feb 2014. Retrieved 21 Mar 2014. 
  31. ^ "Federal politics- Voting intention". Essential. 5 Mar 2014. Retrieved 10 Mar 2014. 
  32. ^ a b c "Newspoll shows lift for ALP as budget fears rise". The Australian. 24 Feb 2014. Retrieved 25 Feb 2014. 
  33. ^ "ALP (50.5%, down 1.5%) lead down again over L-NP (49.5%, up 1.5%) as Western Australia set to face a new half-Senate Election in April". Roy Morgan Research. 24 Feb 2014. Retrieved 24 Feb 2014. 
  34. ^ "Tony Abbott bounces back as union woes hit Bill Shorten in latest poll". The Age. 17 Feb 2014. Retrieved 11 Feb 2014. 
  35. ^ "Latest Polls". The Australian. 11 Feb 2014. Retrieved 11 Feb 2014. 
  36. ^ "ALP (53%, up 0.5%) increases clear lead over L-NP (47%, down 0.5%). Government Confidence lowest since Abbott Government elected". Roy Morgan Research. 28 Jan 2014. Retrieved 28 Jan 2014. 
  37. ^ "The Essential Report". Essential Research. 21 January 2014. Retrieved 23 January 2014. 
  38. ^ "ALP (52.5%) start 2014 with a clear lead over the L-NP (47.5%) in first major public opinion poll of 2014". Roy Morgan Research. 13 January 2014. Retrieved 13 January 2014. 
  39. ^ "ALP (52.5%) increases lead over L-NP (47.5%) after Holden decision to cease manufacturing in 2017 and Roy Morgan Government Confidence lowest since Federal Election". Roy Morgan Research. 16 December 2013. Retrieved 13 January 2014. 
  40. ^ "The Essential Report". Essential Research. 3 December 2013. Retrieved 4 December 2013. 
  41. ^ "ALP (51.5%) gain lead over L-NP (48.5%) after Gonski ‘backflip’". Roy Morgan Research. 2 December 2013. Retrieved 2 December 2013. 
  42. ^ a b "Labor storms ahead". The Age. 25 November 2013. Retrieved 25 November 2013. 
  43. ^ "7 News National Poll". ReachTEL. 6 September 2013. Retrieved 6 September 2013.