Next Australian federal election

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Election campaign, next < 2004 2007 next
	Government	Opposition
	Australian Labor Party	Liberal/National Coalition
	Kevin Rudd	Tony Abbott
Leader since	2006	2009
Leader rating[1]	65%	TBA%
2PP rating[2]	57%	43%
2007 2PP result	52.7%	47.3%
Seats	83	64
Seats needed	0	12
Swing needed	0.0%	2.9%

The next Australian federal election will elect members of the 43rd Parliament of Australia and must be held on or before 16 April 2011. The election will be called following the dissolution or expiry of the current Parliament. Australia has compulsory voting, uses full-preference instant-runoff voting in the lower house and single transferable vote group voting tickets in the upper house. The election will be conducted by the Australian Electoral Commission, an independent body answerable to Parliament.

Contents 1 Date 2 House of Representatives 2.1 Redistributions 3 Senate 3.1 Senators facing re-election 4 Retiring MPs and Senators 4.1 Members 4.1.1 Liberal 4.1.2 Labor 4.2 Senators 4.2.1 Liberal 5 Polling 6 See also 7 External links 8 References

[edit] Date

The last federal election was held on 24 November 2007. The last date on which the next election can be held is calculated in the following way:^[3]

• Section 28 of the Constitution says: "Every House of Representatives shall continue for three years from the first sitting of the House, and no longer, but may be sooner dissolved by the Governor-General."^[4]
• Section 32 of the Constitution says: "The writs shall be issued within ten days from the expiry of a House of Representatives or from the proclamation of a dissolution thereof."
• Section 156 (1) of the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 (CEA) says: "The date fixed for the nomination of the candidates shall not be less than 10 days nor more than 27 days after the date of the writ". ^[5]
• Section 157 of the CEA says: "The date fixed for the polling shall not be less than 23 days nor more than 31 days after the date of nomination". ^[6]
• Section 158 of the CEA says: "The day fixed for the polling shall be a Saturday". ^[7]

The first meeting of the House of Representatives and the 42nd Parliament occurred on 12 February 2008.^[8][9] Therefore it expires on 11 February 2011, unless dissolved sooner. (Of Australia's 41 completed parliaments, only one, the 3rd Parliament 1907-1910, continued for the full three years, all the others having been dissolved earlier.^[10]) The writs must therefore be issued by 21 February 2011 (ten days after the expiry). The last date on which nominations can close is therefore 20 March 2011 (27 days after the writs). The last day that is a Saturday and no more than 31 days following the close of nominations is 16 April 2011. It is, however, extremely unlikely that an election would be left until 2011.^[11]

A Senate election must be held in time for state senators to take their places on 1 July 2011. It will probably be held in conjunction with the House of Representatives election. In this event, half (36) of the 72 state senators, and all 4 of the territory senators, will face election (territory senators begin their terms immediately). There are precedents for holding a separate Senate election, but the last time this occurred was 1970. If this were to occur, however, the only senators to face election would be the 36 state senators referred to above. The writs for a "half-Senate" election cannot be issued until one year before the end of the current term. The current term ends on 30 June 2011; one year before then is 30 June 2010; and thus the earliest possible such election would be in August 2010.

It is also possible that a double dissolution election could be called if legislation cannot proceed through the Senate after two attempts. A double dissolution may only occur on or before 11 August 2010:

• Section 57 of the Constitution says: "If the House of Representatives passes any proposed law, and the Senate rejects or fails to pass it, or passes it with amendments to which the House of Representatives will not agree, and if after an interval of three months the House of Representatives, in the same or the next session, again passes the proposed law with or without any amendments which have been made, suggested, or agreed to by the Senate, and the Senate rejects or fails to pass it, or passes it with amendments to which the House of Representatives will not agree, the Governor-General may dissolve the Senate and the House of Representatives simultaneously. But such dissolution shall not take place within six months before the date of the expiry of the House of Representatives by effluxion of time".

[edit] House of Representatives

See also: Current pendulum for the next Australian federal election

See also: 2007 state-by-state lower house results and maps

The Labor Party, currently led by Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, and the Liberal Party, currently led by Opposition Leader Tony Abbott, are the two main parties in Australia. The Liberal Party is usually in a coalition with the smaller National Party, currently led by Warren Truss. In the 150-member Australian House of Representatives, Labor won government with 83 seats, with the coalition on 65 seats (55 Liberal and 10 National), with two seats held by independents. The Australian Greens won 8 per cent of the 2007 vote, and the Family First Party won 2 per cent, but neither party won any seats in the lower house.

The coalition total was reduced to 64 seats when Rob Oakeshott, former state Nationals turned independent MP, won the seat of Lyne at the September 2008 Lyne by-election, resulting from the resignation of former Howard minister and Nationals leader Mark Vaile. The April 2008 Gippsland by-election, resulting from the resignation of the former Howard minister and Nationals MP Peter McGauran, saw the Nationals' Darren Chester retain the seat with a 6 per cent margin increase. The Liberals suffered a swing in the September 2008 Mayo by-election resulting from the resignation of former Howard minister and Liberal leader Alexander Downer, and came within a couple of percent of losing the seat to the Greens candidate. Labor chose not to contest Mayo and Lyne. Bradfield and Higgins by-elections are to be held in December 2009.

[edit] Redistributions

The redistribution for Western Australia has made Liberal-held Swan notionally Labor, and vastly changed Kalgoorlie and O'Connor, with the former being safer for the Liberals, and the latter becoming less safe for the Liberals. Kalgoorlie has also been renamed Durack. The redistribution has also damaged the WA Nationals' chances of a House of Representatives seat.^[12][13][14] Tasmania was also redistributed, and while there are some changes to the look of boundaries, little will change in terms of seat margins.^[15][16]

New South Wales lost a seat to Queensland for the second election in a row. The Labor Party suggested the abolition of the marginal Liberal seat of Macarthur, while the Liberal Party suggested that Liberal-held Hume and National-held Riverina be merged to create a new seat called "Bradman" (in honour of Sir Donald Bradman). The National Party suggested the abolition of Labor-held Banks.^[17] The draft New South Wales redistribution, published in August 2009, proposed that Reid be abolished and that Lowe be renamed "McMahon" in honour of former Prime Minister William McMahon. In response to widespread criticism of the abolition of the name "Reid", the finalised redistribution, published in October 2009, instead had Lowe renamed "Reid" and Prospect renamed "McMahon". Boundary changes also resulted in the Liberal seats of Macarthur, Greenway and Gilmore becoming notionally Labor-held, with major changes to other seats, including Calare, Parkes and Macquarie.^[18]

In Queensland, the seat of Wright has been created as a Liberal-held seat based on the Gold Coast hinterland. The changes also see the status of marginal Liberal seats Dickson and Herbert change to marginal Labor seats.^[19]

A redistribution for Victoria will commence in 2010 in accordance with the provisions of the Constitution, but it is unlikely to be finalised before the election is called.^[20]

[edit] Senate

See also: 2007 state-by-state upper house results

v • d • e Current members of the Australian Senate NSW Mark Arbib (ALP) • Doug Cameron (ALP) • Helen Coonan (Lib) • John Faulkner (ALP) • Concetta Fierravanti-Wells (Lib) • Michael Forshaw (ALP) • Bill Heffernan (Lib) • Steve Hutchins (ALP) • Fiona Nash (Nat) • Marise Payne (Lib) • Ursula Stephens (ALP) • John Williams (Nat) Vic Kim Carr (ALP) • Jacinta Collins (ALP) • Stephen Conroy (ALP) • David Feeney (ALP) • Steve Fielding (FFP) • Mitch Fifield (Lib) • Helen Kroger (Lib) • Gavin Marshall (ALP) • Julian McGauran (Lib) • Michael Ronaldson (Lib) • Scott Ryan (Lib) • Judith Troeth (Lib) QLD Ron Boswell (Nat) • Sue Boyce (Lib) • George Brandis (Lib) • Mark Furner (ALP) • John Hogg (ALP) • Barnaby Joyce (Nat) • Joe Ludwig (ALP) • Ian Macdonald (Lib) • Jan McLucas (ALP) • Brett Mason (Lib) • Claire Moore (ALP) • Russell Trood (Lib) WA Judith Adams (Lib) • Chris Back (Lib) • Mark Bishop (ALP) • Michaelia Cash (Lib) • Mathias Cormann (Lib) • Alan Eggleston (Lib) • Chris Evans (ALP) • David Johnston (Lib) • Scott Ludlam (Grn) • Louise Pratt (ALP) • Rachel Siewert (Grn) • Glenn Sterle (ALP) SA Cory Bernardi (Lib) • Simon Birmingham (Lib) • Don Farrell (ALP) • Alan Ferguson (Lib) • Mary Jo Fisher (Lib) • Sarah Hanson-Young (Grn) • Annette Hurley (ALP) • Anne McEwen (ALP) • Nick Minchin (Lib) • Penny Wong (ALP) • Dana Wortley (ALP) • Nick Xenophon (Ind) Tas Eric Abetz (Lib) • Guy Barnett (Lib) • Catryna Bilyk (ALP) • Bob Brown (Grn) • Carol Brown (ALP) • David Bushby (Lib) • Richard Colbeck (Lib) • Christine Milne (Grn) • Kerry O'Brien (ALP) • Stephen Parry (Lib) • Helen Polley (ALP) • Nick Sherry (ALP) Territories ACT Gary Humphries (Lib) • Kate Lundy (ALP) NT Trish Crossin (ALP) • Nigel Scullion (CLP) Labor (ALP) • Family First (FFP) • Greens (Grn) • Liberal (Lib) • Country Liberal (CLP) • National (Nat)

In the 76-member Australian Senate, from July 2008, the Labor and Liberal Parties hold 32 seats each. The balance of power rests with the crossbench, consisting of:

• 5 National Party (including one CLP)
• 5 Australian Greens
• 1 Family First, Steven Fielding
• 1 independent, Nick Xenophon

For a majority, Labor requires an additional seven votes from non-Labor Senators in order to pass legislation. If the Liberal Party chooses to vote with the Labor Party on legislation, support from the crossbench will not be required.

[edit] Senators facing re-election

^[21]

NSW	Vic	Qld	WA	SA	Tas
Bill Heffernan (Lib) Steve Hutchins (ALP) Concetta F.-Wells (Lib) John Faulkner (ALP) Fiona Nash (Nat) Michael Forshaw (ALP)	Michael Ronaldson (Lib) Kim Carr (ALP) Julian McGauran (Lib) Stephen Conroy (ALP) Judith Troeth (Lib) Steve Fielding (FFP)	Brett Mason (Lib) Jan McLucas (ALP) George Brandis (Lib) Joe Ludwig (ALP) Barnaby Joyce (Nat) Russell Trood (Lib)	Chris Back (Lib) Chris Evans (ALP) Mathias Cormann (Lib) Glenn Sterle (ALP) Judith Adams (Lib) Rachel Siewert (Grn)	Nick Minchin (Lib) Anne McEwen (ALP) Mary Jo Fisher (Lib) Annette Hurley (ALP) Alan Ferguson (Lib) Dana Wortley (ALP)	Eric Abetz (Lib) Kerry O'Brien (ALP) Guy Barnett (Lib) Helen Polley (ALP) Stephen Parry (Lib) Christine Milne (Grn)

[edit] Retiring MPs and Senators

[edit] Members

Where a Member of the House of Representatives chooses not to contest the election, their term will end at the dissolution of the parliament. Members who have indicated their intention to retire are:

[edit] Liberal

• Fran Bailey — McEwen, announced 7 October 2009
• Petro Georgiou — Kooyong, announced 23 November 2008
• David Hawker — Wannon, announced 1 June 2009
• Margaret May — McPherson, announced 14 August 2009
• Chris Pearce — Aston, announced 23 June 2009
• Danna Vale — Hughes, announced 4 August 2009

[edit] Labor

• Jodie Campbell — Bass, announced 30 October 2009
• Bob Debus — Macquarie, announced 5 June 2009
• Jennie George — Throsby, announced 19 November 2009
• Julia Irwin — Fowler, announced 14 September 2009
• Duncan Kerr — Denison, announced 10 September 2009

[edit] Senators

Where a Senator chooses not to contest the election, their term will end on 30 June 2011. Senators who have indicated their intention to retire are:

[edit] Liberal

• Senator Judith Troeth — Victoria, announced 14 January 2009

[edit] Polling

Newspoll polling is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas nationwide, Friday to Sunday, usually each fortnight. Sampling sizes consist of around 1100-1200 electors. The declared margin of error is ±3 per cent.

Better PM opinion polling^

Date	Labor Rudd	Liberal Abbott
27-29 Nov 2009	65%	14%3
13-15 Nov 2009	63%	22%3
30 Oct-1 Nov 2009	63%	19%3
16-18 Oct 2009	65%	19%3
28 Sep-1 Oct 2009	67%	18%3
18-20 Sep 2009	65%	17%3
4-6 Sep 2009	67%	19%3
21-23 Aug 2009	66%	19%3
7-9 Aug 2009	65%	17%3
24-26 Jul 2009	66%	16%3
10-12 Jul 2009	64%	19%3
26-28 Jun 2009	65%	18%3
12-14 Jun 2009	57%	25%3
29-31 May 2009	57%	24%3
15-17 May 2009	58%	24%3
1-3 May 2009	64%	19%3
17-19 Apr 2009	67%	19%3
3-5 Apr 2009	67%	18%3
20-22 Mar 2009	65%	20%3
7-9 Mar 2009	61%	21%3
20-22 Feb 2009	64%	20%3
6-8 Feb 2009	62%	20%3
16-18 Jan 2009	60%	22%3
5-7 Dec 2008	66%	19%3
21-23 Nov 2008	63%	21%3
7-9 Nov 2008	62%	22%3
24-26 Oct 2008	59%	25%3
10-12 Oct 2008	54%	26%3
19-21 Sep 2008	54%	24%3
5-7 Sep 2008	62%	16%2
22-24 Aug 2008	65%	14%2
8-10 Aug 2008	68%	12%2
25-27 Jul 2008	66%	14%2
11-13 Jul 2008	65%	14%2
27-29 Jun 2008	64%	15%2
13-15 Jun 2008	68%	13%2
30 May-1 Jun 2008	66%	17%2
16-18 May 2008	70%	12%2
2-4 May 2008	72%	9%2
18-20 Apr 2008	71%	10%2
4-6 Apr 2008	73%	9%2
14-16 Mar 2008	70%	10%2
29 Feb-2 Mar 2008	73%	7%2
15-17 Feb 2008	70%	9%2
18-20 Jan 2008	68%	11%2
30 Nov-2 Dec 2007	61%	14%2
20-22 Nov 2007	47%	44%1
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. ^Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader. 1Howard 2Nelson 3Turnbull

House of Representatives opinion polling

	Political parties					Two party preferred
	ALP	Lib	Nat	Grn	Oth	ALP	Co.
27-29 Nov 2009	43%	30%	5%	12%	10%	57%	43%
13-15 Nov 2009	43%	33%	4%	11%	9%	56%	44%
30 Oct-1 Nov 2009	41%	36%	5%	10%	8%	52%	48%
16-18 Oct 2009	48%	30%	4%	10%	8%	59%	41%
28 Sep-1 Oct 2009	46%	31%	4%	10%	9%	58%	42%
18-20 Sep 2009	43%	33%	5%	11%	8%	55%	45%
4-6 Sep 2009	44%	35%	4%	10%	7%	55%	45%
21-23 Aug 2009	44%	34%	4%	9%	9%	55%	45%
7-9 Aug 2009	45%	33%	4%	10%	8%	57%	43%
24-26 Jul 2009	46%	34%	4%	9%	7%	57%	43%
10-12 Jul 2009	43%	34%	5%	11%	7%	55%	45%
26-28 Jun 2009	44%	32%	5%	10%	9%	56%	44%
12-14 Jun 2009	41%	36%	4%	11%	8%	53%	47%
29-31 May 2009	43%	35%	3%	10%	9%	55%	45%
15-17 May 2009	46%	34%	3%	9%	8%	56%	44%
1-3 May 2009	42%	35%	3%	11%	9%	55%	45%
17-19 Apr 2009	47%	33%	4%	9%	7%	58%	42%
3-5 Apr 2009	47%	32%	4%	9%	8%	58%	42%
20-22 Mar 2009	45%	32%	5%	8%	10%	56%	44%
7-9 Mar 2009	44%	32%	4%	10%	10%	56%	44%
20-22 Feb 2009	47%	33%	3%	9%	8%	58%	42%
6-8 Feb 2009	48%	32%	4%	8%	8%	58%	42%
16-18 Jan 2009	43%	35%	4%	10%	8%	54%	46%
5-7 Dec 2008	48%	32%	3%	10%	7%	59%	41%
21-23 Nov 2008	42%	33%	5%	11%	9%	55%	45%
7-9 Nov 2008	44%	35%	3%	9%	9%	55%	45%
24-26 Oct 2008	44%	36%	3%	9%	8%	54%	46%
10-12 Oct 2008	41%	34%	4%	13%	8%	55%	45%
19-21 Sep 2008	42%	34%	4%	10%	10%	55%	45%
5-7 Sep 2008	44%	34%	3%	11%	8%	56%	44%
22-24 Aug 2008	45%	34%	4%	8%	9%	56%	44%
8-10 Aug 2008	47%	33%	5%	9%	6%	57%	43%
25-27 Jul 2008	47%	33%	4%	10%	6%	57%	43%
11-13 Jul 2008	43%	33%	5%	11%	8%	55%	45%
27-29 Jun 2008	44%	34%	5%	10%	7%	55%	45%
13-15 Jun 2008	46%	29%	4%	12%	9%	59%	41%
30 May-1 Jun 2008	46%	33%	4%	10%	7%	57%	43%
16-18 May 2008	47%	34%	3%	9%	7%	57%	43%
2-4 May 2008	47%	33%	4%	9%	7%	57%	43%
18-20 Apr 2008	51%	30%	4%	9%	6%	61%	39%
4-6 Apr 2008	48%	32%	3%	10%	7%	59%	41%
14-16 Mar 2008	47%	31%	4%	11%	7%	59%	41%
29 Feb-2 Mar 2008	51%	28%	3%	10%	8%	63%	37%
15-17 Feb 2008	46%	33%	3%	10%	8%	57%	43%
18-20 Jan 2008	46%	32%	3%	12%	7%	58%	42%
2007 Election	43.4%	36.6%	5.5%	7.8%	6.7%	52.7%	47.3%
20-22 Nov 2007	44%	39%	4%	7%	6%	52%	48%
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian.

[edit] See also

• Australian federal election, 2007
• List of political parties in Australia

[edit] External links

• Australian elections timetable, Parliamentary library background note (25 June 2009)

[edit] References

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