Next Italian general election

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Next Italian general election
Italy
2013 ←
On or before
7 May 2018[1]

All 630 seats of the Chamber of Deputies
and all elective 315 seats of the Senate of the Republic
  Matteo Renzi Portrait.png Beppe Grillo - Trento 2012 01.JPG Berlusconi-2010-1.jpg
Leader Matteo Renzi Beppe Grillo Silvio Berlusconi
Party Democratic Party Five Star Movement Forza Italia
Leader since 15 December 2013 4 October 2009 18 January 1994
Last election 297 C / 111 S,
25.4%
109 C / 54 S,
25.6%
98 C / 98 S,
21.6%
Current seats 309 C / 114 S 91 C / 36 S 70 C / 66 S

  Angelino Alfano daticamera.jpg Nicola Vendola daticamera.jpg Matteo Salvini 2013.jpg
Leader Angelino Alfano Nichi Vendola Matteo Salvini
Party New Centre-Right Left Ecology Freedom Lega Nord
Leader since 15 November 2013 24 October 2010 15 December 2013
Last election new party 37 C / 7 S,
3.2%
18 C / 18 S,
4.1%
Current seats 27 C / 31 S 26 C / 7 S 18 C / 15 S

Incumbent Prime Minister

Matteo Renzi
Democratic Party

The next Italian general election is due to be held in or before 2018.

Under the current Constitution, voters would elect 630 members of the Chamber of Deputies and 315 members of the Senate of the Republic for the 18th Parliament of Italy, but several major parties have committed to constitutional changes which would replace the Senate with a smaller, indirectly elected body.[2]

Background[edit]

In the 2013 general election, neither of the two main coalitions, the centre-right led by Silvio Berlusconi and the centre-left Italy. Common Good led by Pier Luigi Bersani, won an outright majority in both houses of the Parliament, due to the good result obtained by a new third force, the Five Star Movement (M5S).

After various failed attempts by Bersani, who was also secretary and prime-ministerial candidate of the Democratic Party (PD), to form a government including or having the support of the M5S, President Giorgio Napolitano gave Enrico Letta, Bersani's deputy within the PD, the task of forming a government. The cabinet was composed of members of the PD, Berlusconi's The People of Freedom (PdL) – replaced by New Centre-Right (NCD) in November 2013 –, Civic Choice (SC), the Union of the Centre (UdC), one member of the Italian Radicals and three non-party independents.[3]

Following tensions with his party and its new secretary Matteo Renzi, in February 2014 Letta resigned from Prime Minister and was replaced by Renzi himself, who formed a cabinet composed of the identical coalition suporting Letta's government.[4] Renzi's position at the helm of the party and the government was strenghtened by the Democrats' strong showing in the 2014 European Parliament election and the election of Sergio Mattarella, a fellow Democrat, in the 2015 presidential election.

In 2014–15 opinion polls (see below) have registered the PD's strength and a steady rise of Lega Nord (LN) under Matteo Salvini, who launched a bid to become the leader of a much fractured centre-right, while emphasizing a decline of Forza Italia, the party which replaced the PdL, and the M5S, and the virtual disappearance of SC.

Parties and leaders[edit]

This is a list of the parties (and their respective leaders) which would likely take participate in the election.

Party Ideology Leader
Five Star Movement (M5S) Populism, Anti-establishment, Euroscepticism Beppe Grillo
Democratic Party (PD) Social democracy, Christian left Matteo Renzi
Forza Italia (FI) Liberal conservatism, Christian democracy Silvio Berlusconi
Civic Choice (SC) Liberalism, Centrism Enrico Zanetti
Lega Nord (LN) Regionalism, Populism, Euroscepticism Matteo Salvini
Us with Salvini (NcS) Populism, Euroscepticism
Left Ecology Freedom (SEL) Democratic socialism, Eco-socialism Nichi Vendola
Brothers of Italy (FdI) National conservatism, Nationalism, Euroscepticism Giorgia Meloni
Union of the Centre (UdC) Christian democracy, Social conservatism Pier Ferdinando Casini
New Centre-Right (NCD) Conservatism, Christian democracy Angelino Alfano
Communist Refoundation Party (PRC) Communism, Euroscepticism Paolo Ferrero

Opinion polling[edit]

Graphical summary[edit]

The chart shows the relative state of the parties from 25 February 2013 to the date the next election is presumably held.

Each line's colour corresponds to a political party: red for Democratic Party, azure for Forza Italia (formerly The People of Freedom), yellow for the Five Star Movement, cobalt blue for New Centre-Right (split from The People of Freedom), blue for Civic Choice, green for Lega Nord, dark red for Left Ecology Freedom, dark blue for Brothers of Italy and light blue for Union of the Centre. Each dot represents a party's results from an opinion poll displayed in the tables below.

15-day average trend line of poll results from February 2013 to the present day, with each line corresponding to a political party.


Poll results[edit]

Poll results are listed in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold and the background is shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. However, if such date is unknown, the date of publication will be given instead. Forza Italia's numbers prior to 16 November 2013 refer to the party's predecessor, The People of Freedom. Since December 2014 results for Lega Nord also include data for sister party Us with Salvini, even though only a minority of the polling firms explicitly mention it in the survey questions.

2015[edit]

Date Polling firm M5S PD FI SC LN+
NcS
SEL FdI UdC NCD Others Lead
24 Apr SWG 18.5 38.1 15.5 13.0 3.8 3.3 w.NCD 3.9 3.9 19.6
20-21 Apr Datamedia 20.4 35.9 12.4 14.9 3.9 3.9 w.NCD 2.4 6.2 15.5
21 Apr Euromedia 20.8 35.6 12.7 13.8 4.0 4.5 w.NCD 2.7 5.9 14.8
13 Apr Piepoli 20.0 38.5 10.0 14.5 4.5 4.0 w.NCD 3.0 5.0 18.5
13 Apr EMG 21.3 35.3 12.1 15.5 4.1 5.0 w.NCD 2.9 3.8 14.0
10 Apr SWG 17.8 39.8 14.8 12.0 3.0 3.1 w.NCD 3.8 5.7 22.0
7 Apr Datamedia 19.8 36.9 12.6 14.8 4.2 3.3 w.NCD 2.2 6.2 17.1
7 Apr EMG 20.7 36.8 11.3 15.2 4.1 5.1 w.NCD 2.8 4.0 16.1
30 Mar–4 Apr ScenariPolitici 20.2 35.4 11.9 14.0 4.0 4.2 w.NCD 3.4 6.9 15.2
3 Apr Ixè 18.7 38.4 12.9 13.5 4.3 3.9 1.0 2.5 4.7 19.7
1 Apr IPR 19.0 36.0 12.0 0.3 13.5 6.0 3.0 w.NCD 3.0 6.2 17.0
1 Apr Tecnè 19.5 37.5 12.5 13.5 5.0 3.0 w.NCD 3.0 6.0 18.0
30 Mar–1 Apr SWG 17.0 39.4 14.6 12.6 3.2 2.9 w.NCD 4.2 6.1 22.4
30 Mar Piepoli 19.0 38.0 10.5 14.5 5.0 4.0 w.NCD 3.0 6.0 19.0
30 Mar Euromedia 20.0 37.0 13.0 13.5 4.0 4.5 w.NCD 2.7 5.4 17.0
28–29 Mar EMG 20.3 37.2 11.0 15.4 4.1 5.0 w.NCD 2.9 4.1 16.9
24–26 Mar Demos&Pi 20.4 36.6 13.5 11.5 4.8 w.NCD 3.6 9.6 16.2
23–25 Mar SWG 17.5 38.6 15.6 12.0 3.0 3.3 w.NCD 3.6 6.4 21.1
23–24 Mar Datamedia 19.7 37.1 12.5 14.5 4.1 3.0 w.NCD 2.4 6.7 17.4
23 Mar Euromedia 19.5 36.8 13.2 13.5 4.2 4.5 1.8 1.2 5.3 17.3
23 Mar Piepoli 19.0 38.0 11.0 15.0 4.5 3.5 w.NCD 3.0 6.0 19.0
21–22 Mar Lorien 17.5 38.0 13.0 0.2 14.0 4.0 2.8 w.NCD 4.0 6.5 20.5
21–22 Mar EMG 20.3 37.0 11.4 15.3 4.1 4.8 w.NCD 3.0 4.1 16.7
18 Mar Ixè 18.6 38.8 12.5 0.2 13.4 4.4 3.3 1.0 2.6 5.2 20.2
16–18 Mar SWG 17.7 39.7 14.8 12.2 3.4 3.0 w.NCD 2.9 6.3 22.0
16–17 Mar Datamedia 19.5 37.4 12.6 14.4 4.0 2.8 w.NCD 2.5 6.8 17.9
16 Mar Euromedia 18.6 37.0 13.0 13.7 3.9 4.4 1.8 2.0 5.6 18.4
16 Mar Piepoli 18.5 38.0 11.0 15.5 4.0 3.5 w.NCD 3.5 6.0 19.5
14–15 Mar EMG 20.2 37.6 11.7 15.1 4.1 4.4 w.NCD 3.1 3.8 17.4
13 Mar IPR 18.5 38.5 12.0 0.8 13.5 3.0 2.5 w.NCD 4.0 7.2 20.0
11 Mar Ixè 19.3 38.5 12.6 0.4 13.5 4.2 3.1 0.9 2.7 4.8 19.2
9–11 Mar SWG 16.5 39.2 16.0 13.0 3.2 2.2 w.NCD 3.8 6.1 22.7
9–10 Mar Datamedia 19.2 37.2 12.5 14.5 4.0 2.7 w.NCD 3.2 6.7 18.0
9 Mar Piepoli 17.5 38.0 11.0 16.0 4.0 3.5 w.NCD 4.0 6.0 20.5
7–8 Mar Lorien 17.5 38.5 12.0 0.2 14.5 4.0 2.5 w.NCD 4.3 6.5 21.0
7–8 Mar EMG 19.9 37.4 11.6 16.1 4.0 4.3 w.NCD 3.0 2.4 17.5
3–5 Mar Demopolis 19.0 38.0 11.5 15.0 4.2 4.0 w.NCD 3.8 4.5 19.0
4 Mar Ixè 18.5 38.3 12.9 0.4 14.2 3.9 3.3 0.7 2.9 4.9 19.8
2–4 Mar SWG 17.0 39.8 14.7 13.6 2.9 2.3 w.NCD 3.4 6.3 22.8
2–3 Mar Datamedia 19.4 37.0 12.4 14.2 4.2 2.5 w.NCD 3.3 7.0 17.6
2 Mar Tecnè 19.0 38.0 13.0 14.0 4.0 2.5 w.NCD 3.5 6.0 19.0
2 Mar Lorien 17.5 38.5 12.5 0.5 15.0 4.0 2.5 w.NCD 4.0 5.5 21.0
2 Mar Piepoli 17.0 38.0 11.0 16.0 4.5 3.5 w.NCD 4.0 6.0 21.0
2 Mar Ipsos 19.7 36.5 13.1 14.7 3.8 4.0 1.7 3.2 3.3 16.8
28 Feb Lorien 17.5 39.0 12.5 0.5 15.0 4.0 2.5 w.NCD 4.0 4.5 21.5
27–28 Feb EMG 19.6 37.1 12.0 15.9 4.0 4.1 w.NCD 3.1 2.8 17.5
23–28 Feb ScenariPolitici 18.8 36.5 12.4 15.3 3.6 3.5 w.NCD 3.5 6.4 17.7
25 Feb Ixè 18.3 38.5 12.6 0.3 14.2 3.7 2.9 0.7 2.7 6.1 20.2
23–25 Feb SWG 16.1 40.2 16.1 12.0 3.5 2.4 w.NCD 3.9 5.8 24.1
23–24 Feb Datamedia 19.3 37.0 13.2 14.0 4.2 2.5 w.NCD 3.3 6.5 17.7
23 Feb Piepoli 16.5 39.0 11.0 16.0 4.0 3.5 w.NCD 4.5 5.5 22.5
21–22 Feb EMG 20.1 37.2 12.4 15.1 4.1 3.8 w.NCD 3.0 4.3 17.1
19 Feb IPR 18.5 38.5 13.5 14.5 4.0 2.0 w.NCD 3.5 5.5 20.0
18 Feb Ixè 18.7 37.8 13.0 0.2 13.8 3.6 2.9 0.9 3.0 6.1 19.1
17–18 Feb Tecnè 18.0 38.0 14.0 14.0 3.0 3.0 w.NCD 5.0 5.0 20.0
16–18 Feb SWG 16.8 39.4 15.9 12.3 2.6 2.7 w.NCD 4.2 6.1 22.6
16–17 Feb Datamedia 18.7 37.0 12.8 14.7 4.0 2.5 w.NCD 3.5 6.8 18.3
16 Feb Piepoli 17.0 38.0 11.5 15.5 4.5 3.5 w.NCD 4.5 5.5 21.0
16 Feb Ipsos 20.2 37.2 13.5 13.5 3.5 3.1 2.0 3.1 3.9 17.0
16 Feb Euromedia 18.3 36.7 14.0 14.0 4.1 3.9 1.9 1.8 5.3 18.4
14–15 Feb Lorien 18.0 38.0 13.5 0.5 14.5 4.0 3.0 w.NCD 4.0 4.5 20.0
14–15 Feb EMG 19.8 37.1 12.0 15.5 4.1 3.8 w.NCD 3.2 4.5 17.3
11 Feb Ixè 19.1 37.5 12.8 0.3 13.9 3.8 3.1 0.9 2.8 5.8 18.4
11 Feb IPR 19.0 38.0 13.0 14.5 4.0 2.0 w.NCD 3.0 6.5 19.0
9–11 Feb SWG 18.1 38.7 14.6 0.2 12.3 3.2 3.0 w.NCD 3.4 6.7 20.6
9–10 Feb Datamedia 18.0 37.1 13.0 14.2 4.0 2.3 w.NCD 3.5 7.9 19.1
9 Feb Lorien 17.5 38.0 14.0 0.5 14.0 4.0 3.0 w.NCD 4.0 5.0 20.5
9 Feb Euromedia 18.6 36.6 14.2 13.9 4.5 4.0 2.0 1.8 4.4 18.0
9 Feb Piepoli 17.5 37.0 11.5 16.0 4.5 3.5 w.NCD 4.5 5.5 19.5
7–8 Feb EMG 19.2 37.2 12.4 15.2 4.4 3.6 w.NCD 3.7 4.3 18.0
4–6 Feb Demos&Pi 19.8 37.7 14.3 11.3 3.6 w.NCD 5.1 8.2 17.9
4–5 Feb Ixè 19.4 37.0 12.9 0.3 13.8 4.0 3.3 1.1 2.7 5.5 17.6
2–4 Feb SWG 17.0 39.5 15.1 0.4 12.2 3.1 3.4 w.NCD 3.2 6.1 22.5
3 Feb Euromedia 18.5 36.8 13.9 13.6 4.3 3.9 2.3 1.9 4.8 18.3
2–3 Feb Datamedia 18.1 36.8 12.8 14.0 4.2 2.5 1.0 2.5 8.1 18.7
2 Feb Piepoli 18.0 36.0 11.5 15.5 4.5 3.5 w.NCD 5.0 6.0 18.0
2 Feb Tecnè 19.0 38.0 14.0 14.0 4.0 2.0 w.NCD 4.0 5.0 19.0
2 Feb IPR 19.0 37.0 13.0 13.0 3.5 2.0 w.NCD 3.0 9.5 18.0
31 Jan–1 Feb EMG 19.7 36.6 13.1 14.9 4.9 3.4 w.NCD 3.3 4.1 16.9
28–29 Jan Ixè 19.2 36.8 13.3 0.2 13.6 4.2 3.0 1.1 2.6 6.0 17.6
27–28 Jan Ipsos 20.0 36.0 14.0 1.0 13.8 4.0 3.5 1.8 3.0 2.9 16.0
26–28 Jan SWG 17.8 37.8 16.1 0.4 12.1 3.1 3.1 w.NCD 3.8 5.8 20.0
27 Jan Tecnè 21.0 35.0 15.0 14.0 5.0 2.0 w.NCD 4.0 4.0 14.0
26 Jan Piepoli 18.0 35.0 12.5 15.5 4.5 3.5 w.NCD 5.0 6.0 17.0
26 Jan Lorien 17.0 36.0 14.0 0.5 13.5 3.5 3.5 w.NCD 4.5 7.5 19.0
26 Jan Euromedia 18.9 35.2 14.6 13.5 4.2 3.5 1.7 2.9 5.5 16.3
24–25 Jan EMG 20.8 35.2 14.0 14.8 4.6 3.3 w.NCD 3.3 4.0 14.4
20–23 Jan Demos&Pi 19.7 36.3 15.8 13.0 3.3 w.NCD 4.8 7.1 16.6
22 Jan IPR 19.5 36.0 13.3 0.7 13.0 3.5 2.0 w.NCD 4.0 8.0 16.5
21–22 Jan Ixè 19.0 36.9 13.4 0.2 13.5 3.9 3.1 1.0 2.7 6.3 17.9
20 Jan Tecnè 20.0 35.0 15.0 13.0 4.0 3.0 w.NCD 4.0 6.0 15.0
19–20 Jan SWG 19.0 38.0 15.0 0.3 11.5 2.8 3.2 w.NCD 4.3 5.9 19.0
19–20 Jan Datamedia 18.5 35.7 13.0 13.7 4.0 2.4 1.0 3.3 8.4 17.2
19 Jan Euromedia 18.7 36.0 14.5 13.0 3.7 3.1 2.0 3.0 6.0 17.3
19 Jan Ipsos 20.4 34.6 14.6 13.5 3.5 3.0 2.0 3.4 5.0 14.2
19 Jan Piepoli 18.5 36.0 12.5 15.0 4.0 3.5 w.NCD 4.5 6.0 17.5
17–18 Jan EMG 20.8 35.6 14.5 14.1 3.4 3.5 w.NCD 3.6 4.5 14.8
13–17 Jan ScenariPolitici 19.0 37.0 14.0 14.0 3.3 3.0 w.NCD 3.5 6.2 18.0
14–15 Jan Ixè 18.9 37.6 13.1 0.2 13.2 3.8 2.9 1.2 2.5 6.6 18.7
13–14 Jan Ipsos 20.6 34.8 14.8 0.6 12.8 3.8 3.2 2.0 3.5 3.9 14.2
13–14 Jan SWG 21.5 37.2 14.9 1.1 10.0 3.5 3.1 w.NCD 3.6 5.1 15.7
12 Jan Piepoli 19.0 36.5 12.5 15.0 3.5 3.5 w.NCD 4.0 6.0 17.5
10–11 Jan EMG 20.5 36.0 14.3 14.3 3.1 3.5 w.NCD 3.5 4.8 15.5
10–11 Jan Ixè 18.7 37.2 13.3 0.2 13.0 3.7 2.6 1.3 2.3 7.7 18.5
7–8 Jan Lorien 18.0 37.5 14.5 0.5 11.5 2.5 3.0 w.NCD 4.0 8.5 21.0
7–8 Jan SWG 20.6 38.1 14.1 0.8 11.5 3.0 2.7 w.NCD 3.2 6.0 17.5
7 Jan Tecnè 19.0 37.0 15.0 14.0 3.0 3.0 w.NCD 4.0 5.0 18.0

2014[edit]

2013[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ Italian Constitution, Art.61
  2. ^ "Italian parties reach deal on Senate reform". Reuters. June 21, 2014. Retrieved June 25, 2014. 
  3. ^ Dionisi, Brenda (May 9, 2013). "It's a governissimo!". The Florentine. Retrieved September 24, 2013. 
  4. ^ "Renzi: con 47, 8 anni di media, è il governo più giovane di sempre". Corriere Della Sera. 21 February 2014. Retrieved 23 February 2014.