Next Portuguese legislative election

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Portuguese legislative election, 2015
Portugal
2011 ←
On or before 11 October 2015

230 seats to the Portuguese Assembly
116 seats needed for a majority
  Passos Coelho EPP2011.jpg António Costa img 6536.jpg P Portas 2009.png
Leader Pedro Passos Coelho António Costa Paulo Portas
Party Social Democratic Socialist People's
Leader since 26 March 2010[1] 28 September 2014 21 April 2007
Leader's seat Vila Real[2] None Aveiro[3]
Last election 108 seats, 38.7% 74 seats, 28.1% 24 seats, 11.7%
Current seats 108 74 24
Seats needed Increase8 Increase42 Increase92

  Jerónimo de Sousa.jpg BE
Leader Jerónimo de Sousa Catarina Martins & João Semedo
Party Democratic Unity Coalition Left Bloc
Leader since 27 November 2004 11 November 2012
Leader's seat Lisboa[4] Porto[5][6]
Last election 16 seats, 7.9% 8 seats, 5.2%
Current seats 16 8
Seats needed Increase100 Increase108

Incumbent Prime Minister

Pedro Passos Coelho
Social Democratic

The next Portuguese legislative election will be held between Sunday, 20 September and Sunday, 11 October 2015, as provided by the Portuguese electoral law.[7] At stake will be all 230 seats to the Assembly of the Republic.

The ruling centre-right coalition of the Social Democratic Party and the Democratic and Social Centre–People's Party, will battle to seek re-election for a second term in office.

Politics of Portugal[edit]

Main article: Politics of Portugal

The President has the power to dissolve the Assembly of the Republic by his own will. Unlike other countries the President can refuse to dissolve the parliament at the request of the Prime Minister or the Assembly of the Republic and all the parties represented in Parliament. If the Prime Minister resigns, the President must nominate a new Prime Minister after listening to all the parties represented in Parliament and then the nominee must be confirmed by the Assembly of the Republic. The last time a new Prime Minister was nominated, after the last one resigned, without new elections, was Pedro Santana Lopes in 2004. The electorate will elect the members of the 13th Legislature, who will assemble shortly before the oath of the Prime Minister elect.[7]

Primaries[edit]

Socialist Party[edit]

The 2014 Portuguese Socialist Party prime ministerial primary was held on 28 September 2014. It was the first open primary in the history of the party, and of Portugal, and elected the party's candidate for Prime Minister for the 2015 general election. There were two candidates running, António José Seguro, General Secretary of the party at the time of the primary, and António Costa, mayor of Lisbon. António Costa won the primary by a landslide with 67.9% of the vote against the 31.7% of Antonio José Seguro, resulting in Seguro conceding defeat and resigning as General Secretary of the party. An extraordinary congress to elect a new General Secretary will be held on mid December at latest.[8]

Date[edit]

According to the Portuguese Constitution, an election must be called between 14 September and 14 October of the year that the legislature ends. The election is called by the President of Portugal but is not called at the request of the Prime Minister, however the President must listen all the parties represented in Parliament and the election day must be announce at least 60 days before the election.[7] If an election is called in the middle of the legislature (Dissolution of Parliament) it must be held at least in 55 days. Election day is the same in all multi-seats constituencies, and should fall on a Sunday or national holiday. The next legislative election must, therefore, take place no later than 11 October 2015.[9]

Electoral system[edit]

The Parliament of the Portuguese Republic consists of a single chamber, the Assembly of the Republic, composed of 230 members directly elected by universal adult suffrage for a maximum term of four years. Assembly members represent the entire country, rather than the constituencies in which they were elected. Governments require majority support in the Assembly in order to remain in office.

Each one of Portugal's eighteen administrative districts, as well as each one of the country's two autonomous regions - the Azores and Madeira - is an electoral constituency. Portuguese voters residing outside the national territory are grouped into two electoral constituencies - Europe and the rest of the world - each one of which elects two Assembly members. The remaining 226 seats are allocated among the national territory constituencies in proportion to their number of registered electors.

Political parties and party coalitions may present lists of candidates. The lists are closed, so electors may not choose individual candidates in or alter the order of such lists. Electors cast a ballot for a single list. The seats in each constituency are apportioned according to the largest average method of proportional representation (PR), conceived by the Belgian mathematician Victor d'Hondt in 1899. Although there is no statutory threshold for participation in the allocation of Assembly seats, the application of the d'Hondt method introduces a de facto threshold at the constituency level.[10]

Parties[edit]

The parties that currently are represented in Parliament and their leaders, are:

Opinion Polling[edit]

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.

Graphical summary[edit]

15-day average trend line of poll results from June 2011 to the present day, with each line's colour corresponding to a political party.

Opinion polls[edit]

Date Polling Firm Sample size PSD PS CDS–PP CDU BE MPT Others Lead
11–13 Oct Universidade Católica 1,064 28.0 45.0 4.0 10.0 4.0 9.0 17.0
2–7 Oct Eurosondagem 1,021 26.2 34.8 8.0 10.5 4.0 2.1 14.4 8.6
1–4 Oct Aximage 609 27.4 40.2 6.1 9.2 7.7 1.1 8.3 12.8
4–9 Sep Eurosondagem 1,011 28.0 33.0 7.5 10.7 4.3 3.3 13.2 5.0
31 Aug–3 Sep Aximage 602 28.6 30.9 8.4 11.9 5.7 14.5 2.3
31 Jul–6 Aug Eurosondagem 1,033 27.8 32.1 7.0 11.0 4.5 3.6 14.0 4.3
25–31 Jul Pitagórica[a] 504 26.8 33.9 5.1 13.0 3.1 3.1 15.0 7.1
25–31 Jul Pitagórica[b] 504 28.1 30.0 6.9 12.7 4.2 3.5 14.6 1.9
3–9 Jul Eurosondagem 1,014 27.5 32.5 6.6 11.1 4.9 4.0 13.4 5.0
4–7 Jul Aximage 593 27.2 31.0 8.3 10.7 6.9 15.9 3.8
2–5 Jun Eurosondagem 1,025 26.1 33.0 6.9 11.8 4.8 4.6 12.8 6.9
1–4 Jun Aximage 608 24.9 32.0 7.8 13.0 6.0 12.7 7.1
30 May–1 Jun Pitagórica[a] 506 27.5 35.2 6.2 13.6 4.4 3.3 9.8 7.7
30 May–1 Jun Pitagórica[b] 506 28.0 30.6 6.3 14.4 4.8 3.7 12.2 2.6
25 May 2014 EP Election 33.8% 27.7 31.5 w. PSD 12.7 4.6 7.1 16.5 3.8
19–24 May INTERCAMPUS 4,004 28.7 29.1 2.4 11.4 5.4 23.0 0.4
14–22 May Aximage 1,507 29.0 36.2 7.3 10.3 6.5 10.7 7.2
1–7 May Eurosondagem 1,005 26.9 38.0 8.1 10.4 6.6 10.0 11.1
2–5 May Aximage 605 30.5 36.2 6.8 10.5 6.6 9.4 5.7
12–14 Apr Universidade Católica 1,117 30.0 36.0 4.0 12.0 7.0 11.0 6.0
9–12 Apr Aximage 613 31.5 36.1 6.1 11.8 6.4 8.1 4.6
3–9 Apr Eurosondagem 1,011 25.2 37.3 8.1 10.9 7.5 11.0 12.1
25–29 Mar Pitagórica 506 27.6 39.0 7.6 10.3 6.9 8.6 11.4
6–12 Mar Eurosondagem 1,021 26.6 36.6 8.4 11.1 6.9 10.4 10.0
8–11 Mar Aximage 587 33.3 36.8 5.7 11.7 5.4 7.1 3.5
24 Feb–1 Mar Pitagórica 506 28.4 37.2 8.7 10.5 4.9 10.2 8.8
9–12 Feb Aximage 604 31.4 38.1 5.4 9.7 5.7 9.7 6.7
6–12 Feb Eurosondagem 1,025 25.6 36.9 7.7 10.5 7.0 12.3 11.3
20–24 Jan Pitagórica 506 25.8 37.8 7.8 11.4 6.6 10.6 12.0
9–15 Jan Eurosondagem 1,010 25.0 37.5 8.0 10.4 6.6 12.5 12.5
7–10 Jan Aximage 601 30.6 38.5 5.8 9.2 6.3 9.6 7.9
2014
10–15 Dec Pitagórica 503 25.7 36.7 9.0 11.2 6.7 10.7 11.0
5–10 Dec Eurosondagem 1,035 26.5 36.5 8.5 10.0 6.5 12.0 10.0
6–9 Dec Aximage 609 29.6 36.4 8.3 9.7 6.3 9.7 6.8
19–21 Nov Marktest 800 25.6 35.6 1.5 17.2 6.5 13.6 10.0
6–9 Nov Aximage 602 28.4 36.9 9.4 10.3 6.8 8.2 8.5
30 Oct–5 Nov Eurosondagem 1,005 25.6 37.3 8.4 11.1 5.9 11.7 11.7
22–25 Oct Marktest 803 26.2 35.8 2.3 16.6 5.5 13.6 9.6
19–22 Oct Aximage 607 26.9 30.2 12.1 12.4 7.2 11.2 3.3
14–19 Oct Pitagórica 506 23.7 36.7 8.6 13.2 6.6 11.2 13.0
2–8 Oct Eurosondagem 1,010 26.9 36.5 8.6 12.1 5.9 10.0 9.6
29 Sep 2013 Local Elections 52.6% 31.4 36.7 3.4 11.1 2.4 0.1 14.9 5.3
28–29 Sep INTERCAMPUS 1,000 27.0 39.0 4.0 11.0 7.0 12.0 12.0
26–29 Sep Aximage 609 30.2 34.5 10.3 10.4 5.6 9.0 4.3
17–19 Sep Marktest 801 28.5 36.6 2.5 11.5 7.3 13.6 8.1
5–11 Sep Eurosondagem 1,038 26.5 38.0 6.5 12.5 6.5 10.0 11.5
1–3 Sep Aximage 609 28.0 35.3 7.6 11.8 6.6 10.7 7.3
25–31 Jul Eurosondagem 1,020 24.4 37.4 7.7 12.5 7.5 10.5 13.0
27–29 Jul Universidade Católica 1,096 32.0 35.0 3.0 11.0 7.0 12.0 3.0
24–28 Jul Pitagórica 507 24.1 34.6 8.1 13.1 8.7 11.4 10.5
16–18 Jul Marktest 804 27.6 34.2 5.2 10.8 8.6 13.6 6.6
8–11 Jul Aximage 603 28.0 37.4 5.8 10.5 6.7 11.6 9.4
5–10 Jul Eurosondagem 1,007 25.0 37.0 8.0 12.0 8.0 10.0 12.0
28 Jun–2 Jul Pitagórica 503 23.7 33.9 9.1 13.2 8.9 11.2 10.2
4–7 Jun Aximage 599 23.2 35.5 9.4 11.5 8.4 12.0 12.3
30 May–4 Jun Eurosondagem 1,028 24.8 36.9 7.7 13.0 8.0 9.6 12.1
27–30 May Marktest 802 25.0 34.6 5.6 13.1 8.2 13.5 9.6
23–28 May Pitagórica 506 25.4 32.7 9.5 12.6 9.4 10.4 7.3
7–10 May Aximage 604 26.2 35.5 9.5 9.4 6.9 12.5 9.3
2–8 May Eurosondagem 1,009 25.9 36.0 8.4 12.1 8.8 8.8 10.1
17–20 Apr Pitagórica 503 26.9 28.6 12.0 12.8 8.7 11.0 1.7
5–10 Apr Eurosondagem 1,025 26.5 35.0 8.5 12.5 8.5 9.0 8.5
1–4 Apr Aximage 601 25.3 32.6 9.4 12.0 7.8 12.9 7.3
19–24 Mar Pitagórica 503 25.7 36.7 10.6 11.2 7.9 7.9 11.0
9–11 Mar Universidade Católica 949 28.0 31.0 5.0 12.0 8.0 16.0 3.0
4–6 Mar Aximage 607 25.1 31.6 12.1 12.2 7.1 11.9 6.5
28 Feb–5 Mar Eurosondagem 1,022 27.0 35.2 9.0 12.1 8.0 8.7 8.2
20–24 Feb Pitagórica 503 26.4 35.1 10.7 10.7 8.6 8.5 8.7
5–8 Feb Aximage 602 29.1 32.0 8.7 11.5 6.3 12.4 2.9
30 Jan–5 Feb Eurosondagem 1,011 27.6 34.1 9.5 11.6 8.4 8.8 6.5
22–25 Jan Pitagórica 504 28.6 33.8 10.2 12.0 8.0 7.4 5.2
15–21 Jan Marktest 803 27.9 32.6 5.2 12.4 13.3 8.6 4.7
6–9 Jan Aximage 603 26.3 32.9 10.3 11.8 7.4 11.3 6.6
3–8 Jan Eurosondagem 1,010 26.9 34.3 9.6 10.3 8.8 10.1 7.4
2013
13–18 Dec Pitagórica 511 29.0 34.6 11.4 11.2 8.4 5.4 5.6
5–11 Dec Eurosondagem 1,034 26.4 34.0 10.0 11.0 9.0 9.6 7.6
4–7 Dec Aximage 609 26.8 32.9 8.0 11.0 7.6 13.7 6.1
9–16 Nov Pitagórica 505 26.4 36.2 9.8 9.8 7.5 10.2 9.8
7–13 Nov Eurosondagem 1,033 26.9 35.0 10.1 10.0 9.5 8.5 8.1
30 Oct–6 Nov Aximage 602 26.3 32.1 7.9 9.6 7.5 16.6 5.8
8–13 Oct Pitagórica 503 29.5 34.1 8.3 9.1 7.2 11.8 4.6
4–9 Oct Eurosondagem 1,021 30.0 34.8 10.0 9.5 7.7 8.0 4.8
1–4 Oct Aximage 604 24.9 33.7 7.9 9.5 7.0 17.0 8.8
17–20 Sep Marktest 805 20.2 29.6 5.2 10.1 8.6 26.3 9.4
15–17 Sep Universidade Católica 1,132 24.0 31.0 7.0 13.0 11.0 14.0 7.0
10–13 Sep Eurosondagem 1,037 33.0 33.7 10.3 9.3 7.0 6.7 0.7
3–6 Sep Aximage 600 33.3 35.4 7.1 7.7 5.3 11.2 2.1
9–14 Aug Eurosondagem 1,011 34.1 33.0 10.1 8.8 6.6 7.4 1.1
17–20 Jul Marktest 803 26.7 25.8 4.4 9.9 6.9 26.3 0.9
5–10 Jul Eurosondagem 1,036 34.6 32.5 10.1 8.7 6.9 7.2 2.1
2–4 Jul Aximage 600 35.0 30.8 7.9 7.8 5.3 13.2 4.2
19–22 Jun Marktest 800 31.3 29.2 2.8 9.5 5.4 21.8 2.1
7–12 Jun Eurosondagem 1,022 34.3 32.1 11.6 9.0 6.9 6.1 2.2
4–6 Jun Aximage 600 36.6 28.2 7.5 10.1 5.0 12.6 8.4
26–28 May Universidade Católica 1,366 36.0 33.0 6.0 9.0 9.0 7.0 3.0
22–24 May Marktest 807 30.4 29.1 3.5 9.6 8.5 18.9 1.3
10–15 May Eurosondagem 1,011 34.8 31.2 11.6 8.8 6.0 7.6 3.6
2–5 May Aximage 600 36.3 28.9 6.2 9.7 4.3 14.6 7.4
17–21 Apr Marktest 810 31.4 25.4 3.6 10.2 7.8 21.6 6.0
11–17 Apr Eurosondagem 1,036 35.3 30.5 10.7 9.1 6.4 8.0 4.8
3–5 Apr Aximage 600 35.0 27.8 8.7 10.1 4.0 14.4 7.2
19–23 Mar Marktest 802 36.5 20.5 5.2 7.6 6.3 23.9 16.0
8–13 Mar Eurosondagem 1,021 36.0 29.6 12.0 8.5 6.9 7.0 6.4
5–7 Mar Aximage 600 36.2 31.4 6.5 9.2 2.9 13.8 4.8
14–22 Feb Marktest 800 30.2 25.9 3.9 9.3 6.0 24.7 4.3
2–7 Feb Eurosondagem 1,010 35.0 30.0 11.7 8.5 6.5 8.3 5.0
1–4 Feb Aximage 600 37.5 30.3 8.9 8.8 2.8 11.7 7.2
17–22 Jan Marktest 800 37.6 25.2 4.0 6.1 7.7 19.4 12.4
5–10 Jan Eurosondagem 1,064 36.4 30.3 12.1 7.7 6.4 7.1 6.1
3–6 Jan Aximage 600 37.9 30.0 9.3 10.7 2.5 9.6 7.9
2012
7–13 Dec Eurosondagem 1,033 36.0 30.0 12.5 8.8 6.4 6.3 6.0
5–8 Dec Aximage 600 39.5 27.7 9.1 11.3 3.3 9.1 11.8
15–19 Nov Marktest 804 45.4 19.7 5.0 7.9 4.1 17.9 25.7
10–15 Nov Eurosondagem 1,025 36.3 29.6 12.1 9.0 6.1 6.9 6.7
7–10 Nov Aximage 600 41.2 26.8 9.5 10.6 3.5 8.4 14.4
20–25 Oct Eurosondagem 1,032 36.9 29.2 12.5 8.8 6.3 6.3 7.7
18–22 Oct Marktest 809 41.6 19.7 5.3 10.5 4.2 18.7 21.9
3–5 Oct Aximage 600 41.1 26.0 10.2 7.6 5.0 10.1 15.1
22–27 Sep Eurosondagem 1,036 39.3 28.2 12.1 8.2 5.3 6.9 11.1
20–23 Sep Marktest 804 47.1 23.3 6.8 4.0 2.7 16.1 23.8
10–11 Sep Universidade Católica 1,457 43.0 33.0 6.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 10.0
7–10 Sep Aximage 600 40.9 25.1 7.1 9.0 3.2 14.7 15.8
26–30 Aug Eurosondagem 1,025 39.6 26.9 12.5 8.4 5.5 7.1 12.7
14–19 Jul Eurosondagem 1,022 40.0 26.3 13.1 8.0 5.1 7.5 13.7
5–8 Jul Aximage 600 42.0 24.0 10.3 7.5 5.9 10.3 18.0
26–28 Jun Eurosondagem 1,010 40.8 25.0 13.6 7.7 4.8 8.1 15.8
5 Jun 2011 General Election 58.0% 38.7 28.1 11.7 7.9 5.2 0.4 8.5 10.6

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ a b Hypothesized scenario with António Costa as PS candidate.
  2. ^ a b Hypothesized scenario with António José Seguro as PS candidate.

References[edit]

External links[edit]