Next Tasmanian state election

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Next Tasmanian state election
Tasmania
2014 ←
Before 31 December 2018

All 25 seats in the House of Assembly
13 seats needed for a majority
  Will Hodgmanzoom.jpg Kim Booth 2006.jpg
Leader Will Hodgman Bryan Green Kim Booth
Party Liberal Labor Greens
Leader since 30 March 2006 31 March 2014 7 April 2014
Leader's seat Franklin Lyons Bass
Last election 15 seats 7 seats 3 seats
Seats needed Steady Increase6 Increase10
2014 vote 51.4% 27.4% 13.5%

Incumbent Premier

Will Hodgman
Liberal

The next Tasmanian state election is scheduled to be held in or before 2018 to elect all 25 members to the House of Assembly. The first-term Liberal government, currently led by Premier of Tasmania Will Hodgman, will attempt to win a second term against the Labor opposition, led by the Tasmanian Opposition Leader, Bryan Green.

The House of Assembly uses the proportional Hare-Clark system to elect 25 members in five constituencies electing five members each. Upper house elections in the 15-seat single-member district Legislative Council use full-preference instant-runoff voting, with election dates staggered and conducted separately from lower house state elections. The election will be conducted by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission.

Date[edit]

Under section 23 of the Constitution Act 1934, the House of Assembly expires four years from the return of the writs for its election, which is set to take place in early 2014.[1] The Governor must issue writs of election between five and ten days thereafter.[2] Nominations must close on a date seven to 21 days after the issuance of the writ,[3] and polling day must be a Saturday between 15 and 30 days after nominations close,[4] meaning it must take place before the end of 2018.

Background[edit]

The results of the previous election saw landslide victory for the Liberal Party led by Will Hodgman, defeating the incumbent Labor government led by Lara Giddings, governing with the support of the Greens. The election saw the Labor party reduced to seven seats and the Greens losing their parliamentary party status.

Polling[edit]

Polling is regularly conducted for Tasmanian state politics by Enterprise Marketing and Research Services (EMRS). Unlike other pollsters, EMRS don't "prompt" their respondents for an answer on the first request, contributing to the large "undecided" percentage. The sample size for each poll is 1,000 Tasmanian voters.[5]

House of Assembly (lower house) polling
Political parties
ALP Lib Grn PUP Ind Undecided
May 2014 22% 43% 19% 3% 3% 10%
2014 election 27.3% 51.2% 13.8% 5.0% 1.3%
Feb 2014 16% 39% 14% 5% 3% 23%
Polling conducted by EMRS.
Preferred Premier polling^
Labor
Green
Liberal
Hodgman
May 2014 22% 54%
2014 election
Feb 2010 21%1 48%
Polling conducted by EMRS.
^ Remainder were "uncommitted".
1 Lara Giddings.


External links[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Parliamentary Elections, 2007–2010". Tasmanian Electoral Commission. 
  2. ^ Electoral Act 2004, section 63.
  3. ^ Electoral Act 2004, section 69.
  4. ^ Electoral Act 2004, section 70.
  5. ^ [1], EMRS, November 2013.