Tunisian presidential election, 2014

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Tunisian presidential election, 2014
Tunisia
2011 ←
23 November 2014 (2014-11-23)[1]
→ Next

Interim President before election

Moncef Marzouki
CPR

Elected President

TBD

Coat of arms of Tunisia.svg
This article is part of a series on the
politics and government of
Tunisia
Foreign relations

A presidential election is scheduled to be held in Tunisia on 23 November 2014, a month after the parliamentary election.[2] It will be the first regular presidential election after the Tunisian Revolution of 2011 and the adoption of the Constitution in January 2014.

Background[edit]

Main article: Tunisian revolution

Protests in Tunisia began in December 2010 with riots in Sidi Bouzid after Mohamed Bouazizi set himself alight in protest against the confiscation of his fruit and vegetable cart.[3] The riots then spread across the country and continued into 2011. Days after a curfew was imposed in the capital Tunis amid continuing conflagarations, President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali left the country. Ben Ali's Prime Minister Mohamed Ghannouchi briefly took over as acting president[4] before he handed power over to parliamentary speaker Fouad Mebazaa[5] after the head of Tunisia's Constitutional Court, Fethi Abdennadher, declared that Ghannouchi did not have right to take power and Mebazaa would have 60 days to organise a new general election.[6] For his part, Mebazaa said it was in the country's best interest to form a National Unity government.[7]

Ben Ali's Constitutional Democratic Rally considered changing its name (retaining the "Constitution" part in some form) and running in the general election on an anti-Islamist platform.[8] However, the party was banned on 6 February 2011[9] and dissolved on 9 March 2011.[10]

Upon being elected in 2011, the Troika coalition made a "moral pledge" to cede power within a year. However, Ennahdha and its allies, the Congress for the Republic and Ettakatol, are still in power and yet the constituent assembly has not finalized a new constitution. This has led to the opposition accusing the government of overstaying their implicit term and also of using intimidation to try to silence dissent. The opposition also accused the government of using the constituent assembly to push through legislation that would enable them to stay in power. Former speaker of the assembly, Ettakatol’s Mustapha Ben Jaafar then supported the opposition's call for a non-partisan government after he dissolved of the assembly in August. Ennahda, on the other hand, fears that some parts of the opposition are trying to keep it from regaining power and have been emboldened by the August 2013 Egyptian raids.[11] At the same time, a Gallup poll suggested that Tunisians were losing faith in their government.[12]

The head of the Higher Political Reform Commission, Yadh Ben Achour, warned that Tunisia risked anarchy if the transitional period is not handled with care, as institutions and mechanisms of the state are either in disarray or still tainted by links to Ben Ali's regime. Ben Achour also stated that the commission was unsure whether it would be better to reform the constitution or elect a constitutional assembly to write a completely new one, but that it had to be decided soon, as the public was growing tired of waiting. He also confirmed elections would not be held by 15 March 2011 as theoretically stipulated by the constitution, pointing to force majeure as legitimate grounds for taking longer until the election.[13] The election has been delayed further by the annulment of 36 candidates who were elected to Tunisia's board of elections.[14] The election board will be created by giving the candidates list to the constituent assembly, thus bypassing the judiciary, which cannot review plenary sessions of the constituent assembly.[15] The electoral law, which did not include a ban on former regime officials running from office, was approved on 1 May 2014.[16]

Dates[edit]

The interim government announced on 25 February 2011, that the election would be held by mid-July "at the latest".[17] The constitution of Tunisia mandates an election to occur within 45 to 60 days of the Constitutional Council's declaration of the presidency being vacant,[18] but there were calls by the opposition to delay the elections and hold them only within six or seven months, with international supervision.[19] The elections have been delayed until late 2013.[20] On 15 March 2013, the constituent assembly voted 81-21 to hold elections between 15 October 2013 and 15 December 2013.[20]

As a result of the assassination of Mohamed Brahmi and ensuing protests, which called for the dismissal of the government and the dissolution of the government, that turned violent, Prime Minister Ali Larayedh set 17 December as the date of the election. He said: "This government will stay in office: we are not clinging to power, but we have a duty and a responsibility that we will exercise to the end. We think that the National Constituent Assembly will complete the electoral code by October 23 at the latest so elections can be held on December 17." This followed Education Minister Salem Labiadh submitting his resignation and calls by Ennahda ally Ettakatol to dissolve the government. Lobni Jribi said: "We have called for the dissolution of the government in favour of a new unity government that would represent the broadest form of consensus. If Ennahda refuses this suggestion, we will withdraw from government."[21] Ennahda has stated it will give power to a caretaker government by 14 January 2014, which is the third anniversary of the fall of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.[22]

Protests[edit]

Following the assassination of Brahmi, protests continued in Tunisia by liberals. After weeks of such protests supporters of the incumbent Ennahda party rallied in Kasbah Square, where rallied occurred during the Tunisian revolution, on 3 August following a call from the party. The protesters chanted "No to coups, yes to elections."[23]

Ennahda Party National Constituent Assembly (NCA) member Nejib Mrad’s statement on Tuesday on Mutawassit TV that an overthrow is under way took Tunisian national media by storm. Following Ennahda spokeswoman Yusra Ghannouchi telling Al Jazeera that the country did not want a repeat of "the Egyptian scenario," party MP Nejib Mrad released a statement on 13 August on Mutawassit TV that read an overthrow was under way. However, party Vice President Walid Bennani later said: "There's no coup d'etat in Tunisia. There’s an opposition party that wants to dissolve the government. The opposition also still wants to repeat the Egyptian scenario. That can't happen. There is no option [for an alternative to rise to] power. There's no resemblance between the two cases."[24] Party leader Rachid Ghannouchi agreed to work with the Tunisian General Labour Union to find a compromise solution to the political impasse. He said that this was "a starting point for national dialogue;" however he rejected calls for Ali Laarayedh's government to resign saying that "the coalition government will not resign and will continue its duties until national dialogue reaches a consensus agreement that guarantees the completion of the democratic transition and the organisation of free and fair elections."[25]

The UGTT's leader, Hussein Abbassi, announced that an agreement had been reached between the ruling and opposition parties for the incumbent prime minister to resign at the end of 2013 and allow for an interim government, a new constitution to be written and a new election is held. The Tunisia Times reported that a new prime minister would be announced on 14 December.[26] The caretaker prime minister will be Mehdi Jomaa.[27]

Opinion polls[edit]

President[edit]

Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size Undecided Baccouche
Nidaa
Ben Jafar
Ettakatol
Chebbi
PR
Essebsi
Nidaa
Ghannouchi
Ennahda
Hamdi
Aridha
Hammami
PT/FP
Jebali
Ennahda
Laarayedh
Ennahda
Marzouki
CPRInc.
Saied
Ind.
Jomaa
Ind.
Morjane Other
Emrhod[28] Mar 3–12, 2012 900 37.4% 3.8% 2.5% 2.8% 6.2% 2.3% 6.2% 20.9% 4.9%
3C Etudes[29] Mar 2012  ? 35% 6.0% 6.8% 1.9% 6.0% 23% 19.3%
3C Etudes[29] Apr 2012  ? 34% 6.4% 2.0% 9.4% 2.4% 5.0% 20% 22.8%
3C Etudes[30][31] May 2012  ? 38% 5.4% 1.7% 8.1% 3% 4.6% 16% 23.2%
3C Etudes[32] Jun 2012  ? 41,2% 4.7% 1.3% 8.5% 1.9% 2.1% 5.8% 13.3% 21.2%
Emrhod[28] Jun 18-22, 2012 960 21.9% 6.0% 1.6% 11.0% 1.3% 1.3% 7.0% 21.8% 28.1%
3C Etudes[33] Oct 2012 1665 38% 3.3% 0.9% 14.0% 1.1%  ? 3.1% 9.7%  ?
3C Etudes[34] Nov 2012 1648 42.1% 2.5% 3.6% 1% 10.9% 1% 2.1% 2.3% 1.3% 7.2%  ?
3C Etudes[35] Dec 2012 1692 40.9% 1.3% 3.6% 0.9% 10.9% 1.1% 2.3% 2.8% 1.2% 7%  ?
Emrhod[36] Dec 2012 1200  ? 1.5% 1.8%  ? 12.2% 3.4% 2.1% 5.0% 3.6% 8.9%  ?
Sigma[37] Dec 2012 1892  ? 2.0% 5.6% 1.2% 24.2% 5.0%  ? 9.2% 13.9% 12.1%  ?
3C Etudes[38] Jan 2013 1652 37.3%  ? 2.5% 1.5% 9.9%  ?  ? 3.8% 2.6% 0.8% 7.1%  ?
Sigma[39] Feb 2013 1616  ? 3.5% 1.9% 3.7% 29.1% 3.5%  ? 12.0% 21.7% 7.3% 4.6%  ?
3C Etudes[38] Feb 2013 1347 49.2%  ? 1.6% 1.2% 6.8%  ?  ? 4.0% 6.0% 1.0% 5.0%  ?
3C Etudes[40] Mar 2013 1609 43% 1.3% 1.2% 2.1% 10.1%  ?  ? 3.1% 8.7% 2.5% 3.4%  ?
Emrhod[41] Mar 2013 1200 21.1% (none)
8.3% (und.)
1.9% 1.0% 3.1% 20.7% 1.9% 1.8% 8.0% 12.5% 5.9% 1.3% 12.7%
3C Etudes[42] Apr 2013 1695 44% 2.5%  ?  ? 10.1%  ?  ? 3.9% 6.4%  ? 3.1%  ?
Emrhod[43] Apr 2013 1022  ? 1.8%  ? 2.0% 20.8%  ?  ? 4.1% 8.2% 2.3% 2.0%  ?
FSSA[44] Apr 2013 1210  ? 22.2% 5.4% 9.7%  ?  ?  ? 17.0% 27.1%  ? 7.7%  ?
3C Etudes[42] May 2013 1678 35.8% 1.6% 1.5% 2.6% 16.2%  ?  ? 2.9% 6.4% 2.1 2.3%  ?
Emrhod[45] May 2013 1600  ? 0.9%  ? 1.3% 17.6%  ? 1.4% 4.5% 3.3% 2.9% 1.3%  ?
Istis[46] June 2013  ?  ? 4.1%  ? 3.3% 33.8%  ?  ?  ? 19.8%  ? 5.5%  ?
Emrhod[47] June 2013 1067  ? 0.9%  ? 1.3% 17.7%  ? 1.1% 4.6% 7.1% 3.7% 2.2%  ?
3C Etudes[48] July 2013 944 30% 2.6% 1.4% 2.3% 15.8%  ?  ? 3.7% 6.4% 2.5% 2.1%  ?
Sigma[49] Aug 2013 1724 65%  ?  ? 2.7% 40.5% 4.8%  ? 7.3% 8.6% 6.3% 7.0% 4.0%  ?
3C Etudes[50] Aug 2013 1249 34%  ?  ?  ? 15.2%  ?  ? 2.6% 3.9% 2.6% 3.5% 4.7%  ?
Emrhod[51] Sep 2013  ?  ?  ?  ?  ? 20.8%  ?  ? 2.4% 4.5% 2.8% 4.0% 5.1%  ?
Sigma[52] Oct 2013  ? 49.6%  ?  ?  ? 45.3% 2-5%  ? 9.5% 6.3% 4.8% 7.0% 2-5%  ?
3C Etudes[53] Oct 2013 1318 35.5% 1.7%  ?  ? 14.3%  ?  ?  ? 4.7%  ? 3.3% 4.7%  ?
Emrhod[54] Nov 2013 1900  ?  ?  ?  ? 14.7%  ?  ?  ? 3.9%  ?  ?  ?  ?
3C Etudes[55] Nov 2013 1658 38.6%  ?  ?  ? 11.9%  ?  ? 1.9% 3.6%  ? 4.0% 4.9%  ?
Sigma[56] Dec 2013  ? nearly 65%  ?  ?  ? 34.6%  ?  ? 6.9% 6.6%  ? 7.1%  ?  ?
3C Etudes[57] Dec 2013 1681 38.3%  ?  ?  ? 11.2%  ?  ?  ? 2.6% 1.7% 3.2% 4.6%  ?
Emrhod[58] Jan 2014  ?  ?  ?  ? 1.0% 13.3%  ?  ? 2.6% 4.8% 2.5%  ? 3.3%  ?
Sigma[59] Jan 2014 11362  ? 0.8% 2.3% 0.8% 35.2% 2.7%  ? 3.7% 6.1% 7.8% 7.8% 3.9% 14.8%  ?
Emrhod[60] Feb 2014 1200  ?  ?  ?  ? 14.5%  ?  ? 2.8% 4.1% 5.6%  ? 3.4%  ?  ?
Sigma[61] Feb 2014 1517  ?  ? 3.7% 2.0% 33.3%  ?  ? 2.0% 5.2% 2.9% 14.3% 4.6% 17.6%  ?
Emrhod[62] Feb 2014 1051  ?  ?  ?  ? 19.3% 3.9%  ? 4.9% 4.9% 4.8% 2.4% 4.8%  ?  ?
Sigma[63][64] Apr 2014 1636 55.4% 3.0% 2.2% 31.6% 1.1%  ? 4.1% 10.9% 2.6% 9.9% 2.1% 21.1% 11.3%
Sigma[65] May 2014  ?  ?  ?  ? 24.2%  ?  ?  ? 5.7%  ? 9.3%  ? 30.1% 5.3%  ?
Sigma[66] June 2014  ?  ?  ?  ? 29.9%  ?  ?  ? 12.8%  ?  ?  ? 8.3%  ?
Emrhod[67] Jun 2014  ?  ?  ?  ? 19.1%  ?  ?  ? 3.7%  ? 5.1%  ? 3.5%  ?
Institut international des études des sondages[68] Jun 2014  ?  ? 3.2% 1.4% 23.2%  ? 3.6 3.8% 14.4% 2.9% 8.7% 2.6%  ?  ?
Source Date Sample size Undecided Baccouche Ben Jafar Chebbi Essebsi Ghannouchi Hamdi Hammami Jebali Laarayedh Marzouki Saied Jomaa Morjane Other

Runoff[edit]

Candidates 3C Etudes[69]
Jun 2012
3C Etudes[70]
Jul 2012
3C Etudes[71]
Apr 2013
3C Etudes[72]
May 2013
Beji Caid Essebsi (ex-RCD) 38.8% 39% -
Moncef Marzouki (CPR) 61.2%[73] 61% -
Beji Caid Essebsi (ex-RCD) 90.4% -
Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali (ex-RCD) 9.6%[74] -
Hamma Hammami (PCOT) 79.2% -
Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali (ex-RCD) 20.8%[74] -
Hamadi Jebali (Ennahda) 51.4% 46% -
Moncef Marzouki (CPR) 48.6%[75] 54% -
Ahmed Najib Chebbi (Republican) 22.5% 22% -
Moncef Marzouki (CPR) 77.5% 78% -
Hamadi Jebali (Ennahda) 74.9% 73% -
Ahmed Najib Chebbi (Republican) 25.1% 27% -
Hamadi Jebali (Ennahda) 58.2% 61% 50.6% 48.8%
Beji Caid Essebsi (ex-RCD) 41.8% 39% 49.4% 51.2%

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