Ukrainian parliamentary election, 2014

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Ukrainian parliamentary election, 2014
Ukraine
2012 ←
26 October 2014
All 450 seats to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine
226 seats needed for a majority

Incumbent Chairman of Parliament

Oleksandr Turchynov
Batkivshchyna

A snap Ukrainian parliamentary election to the Verkhovna Rada will be held on 26 October 2014.[1] The date of the election was announced by President Petro Poroshenko on 25 August 2014.[1] Poroshenko had pressed for early parliamentary elections since his victory in the May 2014 presidential election.[2][3][4] Because of the ongoing War in Donbass and the unilateral annexation of Crimea by Russia, it is unclear if the elections will able to be held in all regions of Ukraine.[5][6] On 2 September the Central Election Commission of Ukraine announced that no vote would be held for the 10 Crimean constituencies.[7][8]

Every citizen of Ukraine who is 18 years of age or older can exercise their right to vote in a mixed electoral system (50% under party lists and 50% under constituencies) with a 5% election threshold.[9][10]

Campaigning for this election is limited to the sixty days prior to the election, starting on 28 August 2014.[11]

Background[edit]

2014 election date set[edit]

According to the election law of November 2011, elections to the Verkhovna Rada must be held at least every five years.[9][12] This began with the 2012 Ukrainian parliamentary election. If the Rada had sat for the maximum allotted time, the next parliamentary election would have been held on 29 October 2017.[9] Despite this, then president-elect Petro Poroshenko said that he wanted to hold early parliamentary elections following his victory in the presidential election on 25 May 2014.[3] At the 26 June session of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, Poroshenko said that he hoped to hold parliamentary elections in October 2014, as this was "the most democratic way".[2] [nb 1]

The parliamentary coalition that supported the Yatsenyuk Government, formed in the aftermath of the 2014 Ukrainian revolution and Euromaidan movement, dissolved on 24 July.[14] If no new coalition was formed within thirty days, President Poroshenko would become entitled to dissolve the Rada and call early parliamentary elections.[14] On the same day as the dissolution, the Sovereign European Ukraine faction submitted a bill to the Rada that called for elections to be held on 28 September 2014.[15]

In an interview with Ukrainian television channels on 14 August, Poroshenko said that early elections were needed because the Rada refused to recognise the self-proclaimed breakaway Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics as terrorist organisations.[16] The two republics, situated in the eastern Ukrainian region of the Donbass, make-up Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine, and have been fighting Ukrainian government forces in the War in Donbass.[17] President Poroshenko said "I don't know how to work with the parliament in which a huge number [of deputies], whole factions, make up 'the fifth column' controlled from abroad [referring to Russia]. And this danger is only increasing".[16] He also said that "Reelections are the best and the most efficient form of lustration of not only the parliament but also the political forces".

Poroshenko announced on 25 August that he had called for elections to the Rada, to be held 26 October 2014.[1][5] In his accompanying television address, he said the elections were necessary to "purify the Rada of the mainstay of [former president] Viktor Yanukovych". These deputies, Poroshenko said, "clearly do not represent the people who elected them".[18] Poroshenko also said that these Rada deputies were responsible for "the [January 2014] Dictatorship laws that took the lives of the Heavenly hundred".[18] Poroshenko also stated that many of the (then) current MPs were "direct sponsors and accomplices or at least sympathizers of militants-separatists".[18]

Electoral system[edit]

Late July 2014 draft amendments for a new electoral law proposed a return to a system of proportional representation with open party lists and electoral blocs.[19] Besides the open list, this would have been a return to the way the 2007 parliamentary election was conducted (closed lists were used).[20] Despite this, the Rada refused to make the proposed amendments law on 14 August.[21] Hence, like in the previous parliamentary election of 2012, a parallel voting system will be used with 50% of seats (225 seats) elected by (national) proportional party lists with a 5% election threshold and the other 50% of the seats elected in 225 constituencies with a first-past-the-post electoral system in one round (candidate with the highest vote total wins).[9][22][23]

Every citizen of Ukraine who is 18 years of age or older will be able to take part in the election.[10]

In 2012 there were 33,540 polling stations in Ukraine, and 116 foreign polling stations in 77 countries.[24][25]

The July 2014 draft amendments also proposed reducing electoral campaigns from 60 to 45 days.[19] Since they were thus not made law the campaign started 28 Augustus 2014 and will last 60 days.[11]

Issues[edit]

Impossibility to vote in some regions of Ukraine[edit]

Voter turnout in Donetsk Oblast (situated in the Donbass) in the 2014 Ukrainian presidential election.

Donbass[edit]

When President Poroshenko announced that he had called early parliamentary elections for 26 October 2014 on 25 August 2014[1] in the Donbass region of Eastern Ukraine pro-Russian separatist controlled several of the region's government buildings and towns (since mid-April 2014).[17][26] By August 2014 the Ukrainian army and these pro-Russian separatist were fighting the War in Donbass.[5][27] In the May 2014 Ukrainian presidential election only 20% of the ballot stations had been open in Donbass due to threats and violence by these pro-Russia separatists.[28][29] Since the July 2014 post-ceasefire government offensive the pro-Russian separatist are controlling a smaller chunk of the Donbass than in May 2014.[30] According to the Central Election Commission of Ukraine (in early September 2014) 32 constituencies were on the territory of the War in Donbass.[7] In the 2012 Ukrainian parliamentary election the Donbass was divided in 32 constituencies.[8] 14.26% of Ukraine's 35,500,913 eligible voters live in Donbass.[30]

Crimea[edit]

During the February–March[31] 2014 Crimean crisis, Ukraine lost control over Crimea, which was unilaterally annexed by Russia in March 2014.[17][32][nb 2] As a result the May 2014 (Ukrainian) presidential elections were not held in Crimea.[6]

On 2 September the Central Election Commission of Ukraine announced that voters from Crimea would be able to vote for the (national) proportional party lists in a polling stations in Ukraine of their choose.[7] But that they would not be able to vote for the Crimean constituencies.[7] In the 2012 Ukrainian parliamentary election Crimea was divided in 10 constituencies.[8] 5.1% of Ukraine's voters live in Crimea.[30]

Registered parties[edit]

On 2 September Vitaliy Kovalchuk (the parliamentary leader) of UDAR stated that since his party and Petro Poroshenko Bloc had agreed to "joint participation in parliamentary elections" on 29 March 2014 the two parties were "in discussion" about "the format" for how to do so in these elections.[34]

The 7 September 2014 party congress of Civil Position decided that the party would participate in the election on a partly list with members of Democratic Alliance.[35]

On 10 September Batkivshchyna split because party leaders Yatsenyuk and Turchynov became founding members of the new party People's Front.[36]

Opinion polls[edit]

Political parties[edit]

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The percentages that overcome the 5% election threshold[37] are displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is bolded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. However, if such date is unknown, the date of publication will be given instead.

Date Polling Firm PoR Batkivshchyna UDAR Svoboda CPU Poroshenko Bloc Radical Civil Position SU Samopomich PF[a] Others Lead
5 September – 10 September SOCIS 1.9 8.1 [b] 4.5 2.9 45.7 13.7 8.1 4.4 2.0 5.6 3.1 33.3
23 August – 2 September KIIS 3.8 6.1 [b] 4.4 4.6 37.1 13.1 9.7 7.8 2.9 6.4 2.3 24.0
2014 parliamentary election campaign
14 – 25 August GfK Ukraine 2 13[c] 6 4 3 16 14 7 6 1 -[d] 2 2
16 – 23 July KIIS 2.7 17.4 11.5 6.9 3.9 11.1 22.2 11.5 5.3 3.3 - 4.2 4.8
28 June – 10 July Rating 3.8 16.6[e] 8.7 4.8 4.4 27.8 11.5 5.3 4.0 1.0 - 7.6 11.2
2014 presidential election
8–18 May Democratic Initiative Foundation 3[f] 10.4 6.8 3.1 5.2 22.4 4.5 NP[g] 4.2 1.2 - 4.3[h] 12
8–13 May Rating 9[i] 17.4 13.1 6.6 6.3 26.6 7.2 6.8 0.8 - 6.2 9.2
25–29 Apr Razumkov Centre 11.6[i] 20.3 12.2 5.2 6.5 31.1 5.7 - - 7.4 10.8
14–26 Mar International Republican Institute[j][k] 9.5 25.5 19 8 6.5 17.5 - - 16 6.5
14–19 Mar SOCIS, KIIS, RATING, Razumkov Centre 13.6 22.2 16.4 5.2 6.9 21.6 5.7 - - 8.5 0.6
1–6 Mar Social Monitoring Centre[j] 16.6 21.7 19.8 6.5 7.9 13.7 4.4 - - 9.5 0.9
24 Feb – 4 Mar SOCIS 12.9 22.7 22.3 6.5 7.1 18.9 3.7 - - 5.9 0.4
28 Feb – 3 Mar KIIS[j] 16.2 24 25.4 7.1 10.8 4.6 5.4 - - 6.7 1.4
2014 Ukrainian revolution
24 Jan – 1 Feb SOCIS 29.2 21.4 23.4 5.6 5.8 9.8 1.1 - - 3.5 5.8
17–26 Jan SOCIS 29.2 20.2 23.8 6.7 7.6 9.4 0.7 - - 2.3 5.4
2014 calendar year
23–27 Dec R&B Group[j] 36.6 22.1 21.8 9.4 7.1 - - 3.1 14.5
7–17 Dec RATING[j] 28.1 23.6 22.1 7.8 7.6 4.9 1.0 - - 4.7 4.5
30 Sep – 8 Oct Razumkov Centre[j] 27.7 27.9 21 7 9.3 0.8 - - 6.2 0.2
26 Sep – 6 Oct RATING 27.0 26 21 9 10 - - 7.0 1.0
15–25 Sep R&B Group[j] 32.9 27.9 19.9 7.9 9.1 - - 2.5 5.0
2013 calendar year
28 Oct 2012 2012 election results 30 25.6 14 10.5 13.2 1.08 - - 6.9 4.4
Notes
  1. ^ Possibly a new party of Arseniy Yatsenyuk and Oleksandr Turchynov might appear after several people left early the political council's session of Batkivshchyna on August 21, 2014 (please, see People's Front (Ukraine)).
  2. ^ a b In this poll UDAR and Yuri Lutsenko were polled along with the Bloc of Petro Poroshenko.
  3. ^ The party would gain this result if Arseniy Yatsenyuk would be on its party list
  4. ^ The possible results for a possible (new) party of Arseniy Yatsenyuk and Oleksandr Turchynov were not polled
  5. ^ In this poll Front for Change, which is part of Batkivshchyna coalition was polled independently and received 3.4% of decided votes.
  6. ^ For the results of Strong Ukraine see SU section in this table.
  7. ^ In this poll this party was either not polled as an independent party, or its results were categorised in its "Others"-section.
  8. ^ In this poll 23.1% of respondents had not decided who to vote for and 11.8% had stated that they would not take part in the election.
  9. ^ a b Including Strong Ukraine.
  10. ^ a b c d e f g This survey shows its poll results without disregarding those who are undecided or said they will abstain from voting (either physically or by voting blank). In order to obtain results comparable to other surveys and the official election results, the result shown in this table will be that obtained, with a simple rule of three, from disregarding undecided and/or abstaining voters from the totals offered in the survey.
  11. ^ Some opinion polls round their data so that in the end up showing a .0 or a .5 value. This practise is maintained for these polls when disregarding undecided and/or abstaining voters from the totals so as to avoid different interpretations of the same value.

Expected turnout[edit]

Late August 2014 Irina Bekeshkina of Democratic Initiative Foundation predicted that 50% of the people who had voted for the Party of Regions and Communist Party of Ukraine (both popular particularly in Eastern Ukraine[38]) in the 2012 Ukrainian parliamentary election would not participate in the 2014 elections.[39]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ In a Research & Branding Group opinion poll held from 26 July until 5 August, 72% of respondents supported the call for early elections.[13]
  2. ^ The status of the Crimea and of the city of Sevastopol is currently under dispute between Russia and Ukraine; Ukraine and the majority of the international community consider the Crimea to be an autonomous republic of Ukraine and Sevastopol to be one of Ukraine's cities with special status, while Russia, on the other hand, considers the Crimea to be a federal subject of Russia and Sevastopol to be one of Russia's three federal cities.[17][33]

References[edit]

  1. ^ a b c d Ukraine President Poroshenko Calls Snap General Election, Bloomberg News (25 August 2014)
  2. ^ a b Poroshenko hopes early parliamentary elections in Ukraine will take place in October, Interfax-Ukraine (26 June 2014)
  3. ^ a b Poroshenko hopes for early parliamentary elections in Ukraine this fall - presidential envoy, Interfax-Ukraine (19 June 2014)
  4. ^ In Ukrainian election, chocolate tycoon Poroshenko claims victory, The Washington Post (25 May 2014)
  5. ^ a b c Ukraine crisis: President calls snap vote amid fighting, BBC News (25 August 2014)
  6. ^ a b "Ukraine elections: Runners and risks". BBC News Online. 22 May 2014. Archived from the original on 27 May 2014. Retrieved 29 May 2014. 
  7. ^ a b c d (Ukrainian) The CEC explained how to vote inhabitants of the occupied territories of Russia, 5 Kanal (2 September 2014)
  8. ^ a b c 2012 Parliamentary Elections Boundary Delimitation Summary and Analysis, International Foundation for Electoral Systems (May 2012)
  9. ^ a b c d Parliament passes law on parliamentary elections, Kyiv Post (17 November 2011)
  10. ^ a b (Ukrainian) Перший крок до зриву виборів, Ukrayinska Pravda (9 April 2012)
  11. ^ a b Decree on parliament dissolution published in official bulletin of Ukrainian president, election campaign begins on August 28, Interfax-Ukraine (14 August 2014)
    (Ukrainian) Poroshenko decree to dissolve the Council are published, Ukrayinska Pravda (27 August 2014)
    (Ukrainian) Poroshenko put an end to the dissolution of, Ukrayinska Pravda (27 August 2014)
  12. ^ (Ukrainian) Law of Ukraine "On Elections of People's Deputies of Ukraine " dated 17 November 2011, Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine
  13. ^ (Ukrainian) Over 70% of Ukrainian - for re-election of Rada, Ukrayinska Pravda (15 August 2014)
  14. ^ a b Rada speaker announces dissolution of parliamentary coalition, Interfax-Ukraine (24 July 2014)
  15. ^ Rada registers bill setting early parliamentary elections date for September 28, 2014, Interfax-Ukraine (24 July 2014)
  16. ^ a b Poroshenko frustrated by Rada refusing to recognize self-proclaimed republics as terrorist organizations, Interfax-Ukraine (14 August 2014)
  17. ^ a b c d "Ukraine crisis timeline". BBC News Online. Archived from the original on 27 May 2014. Retrieved 29 May 2014. 
  18. ^ a b c Ukrainian President dissolves Parliament, announces early elections, United Press International (25 August 2014)
    Ukraine's Petro Poroshenko Dissolves Parliament, Sets Election Date, The Moscow Times (26 August 2014)
    President's address on the occasion of early parliamentary elections of October 26, Presidential Administration of Ukraine (25 August 2014)
  19. ^ a b Poroshenko, Yatseniuk, Turchynov Agree On Reducing Early Parliamentary Election Campaign From 60 To 45 Days, Ukrainian News Agency (31 July 2014)
  20. ^ Understanding Ukrainian Politics: Power, Politics, And Institutional Design by Paul D'Anieri, M.E. Sharpe, 2006, ISBN 0-7656-1811-7 (page 251)
    Black Sea Fleet vote: Know thy turncoats, Kyiv Post (6 May 2010)
    Ukraine needs constitutional change now, Kyiv Post (7 May 2009)
  21. ^ Rada fails to put on today's agenda three bills on elections of MPs, Interfax-Ukraine (14 August 2014)
  22. ^ Draft Law on the election of members of Parliament of Ukraine, Venice Commission (June 28, 2011)
  23. ^ The Distorted Will of the People, The Ukrainian Week (5 November 2012)
  24. ^ After counting all ballots at 116 foreign polling stations "Svoboda" wins in parliamentary elections in Ukraine, National Radio Company of Ukraine (29 October 2012)
    No violations reported at Ukraine’s overseas polling stations, ITAR-TASS (28 October 2012)
  25. ^ Central Election Commission forms 33,540 polling stations in Ukraine and 114 abroad, Kyiv Post (12 April 2012)
  26. ^ Masked gunmen tighten grip on eastern Ukraine, Reuters (30 April 2014)
  27. ^ Ukraine conflict: Donetsk rebels parade captured soldiers, BBC News (24 August 2014)
  28. ^ Poroshenko Declares Victory in Ukraine Presidential Election, The Wall Street Journal (25 May 2014)
  29. ^ Russia will recognise outcome of Ukraine poll, says Vladimir Putin, The Guardian (23 May 2014)
  30. ^ a b c Ukraine in maps: How the crisis spread, BBC News
  31. ^ "Is Crimea gone? Annexation no longer the focus of Ukraine crisis". CNN. Retrieved 12 July 2014. 
  32. ^ EU & Ukraine 17 April 2014 FACT SHEET, European External Action Service (17 April 2014)
  33. ^ Gutterman, Steve. "Putin signs Crimea treaty, will not seize other Ukraine regions". Reuters.com. Retrieved 26 March 2014. 
  34. ^ (Ukrainian) Block Poroshenko and kick off to the polls together, TVi (2 September 2014)
  35. ^ (Ukrainian) The party decided Gritsenko, who will go to Council, Ukrayinska Pravda (7 September 2014)
  36. ^ (Ukrainian)Yatsenyuk became a leader of the "People's Front" political council, while Turchynov is a head of its headquarters. Ukrayinska Pravda. 10 September 2014
    Ukrainian PM, Parliament Speaker to Head Newly Formed Popular Front Party, RIA Novosti (10 September 2014)
  37. ^ (Ukrainian) Poll: Council to pass seven parties, Ukrayinska Pravda (25 July 2014)
  38. ^ Poll: Political forces of Tigipko, Yatseniuk, Communist Party in Top 5 of April rating of parties, Kyiv Post (12 May 2010)
  39. ^ (Ukrainian) With a low start. How to change the parliament for early elections , Focus (4 August 2014)

External links[edit]